What is needed next year so that the Jays keep winning?

[RealAccountant]

I'm ready to move EE

 

That's the guy we can most afford to move

[Boxcar]

I mean something like Revere + Reid-Foley. Just going with 7 mil/WAR for simplicity, you're talking about 10 million in surplus value for Revere. Ross is harder to peg, but put him at his 3 year average of 3.2 and he's got ~21 million in surplus value over his 2 seasons using some quick arb estimates from MLBTR.

 

I was really just throwing out names, but there's proof that the idea is hardly egregious.

 

Whatever you say Grant. You've already been laughed at by people far more informed than yourself but you must be right, as always.

[Grant77]

How do you figure? More like $1m, at most.

 

He's averaged 1.9 WAR over the past 4 seasons, one of them injury shortened. That's 7 million in surplus value for 2016 alone (give or take a bit based on FA values).

[Grant77]

Whatever you say Grant. You've already been laughed at by people far more informed than yourself but you must be right, as always.

 

Laughing always matters more than cold hard facts. Sorry, you're right. I'm off to join the Westboro Baptist Church, thanks for the advice.

[GD]

He's averaged 1.9 WAR over the past 4 seasons, one of them injury shortened. That's 7 million in surplus value for 2016 alone (give or take a bit based on FA values).

 

First off, value of a win is more like $8m. Second, he's projected for 1 WAR over an entire season. His BABIP was much higher than his career average this year. I don't see why Steamer projects his base running so poorly, but I'd probably set it at 1.5 personally, so (1.5*8)-7=$5m surplus value, or $3.5m with your figure. That's assuming he plays, like, 145 games.

[Grant77]

First off, value of a win is more like $8m. Second, he's projected for 1 WAR over an entire season. His BABIP was much higher than his career average this year. I don't see why Steamer projects his base running so poorly, but I'd probably set it at 1.5 personally, so (1.5*8)-7=$5m surplus value, or $3.5m with your figure. That's assuming he plays, like, 145 games.

 

Revere BABIP

 

2012- .325

2013- .344

2014- .330

2015- .338

 

What the f*** are you smoking? That's one of the stupidest things I have ever read.

 

Revere also had a better K/BB and posted the highest ISO of his career. There's simply no good reason to project him to fall off a cliff when he's 27 years old and healthy.

[GD]

Revere BABIP

 

2012- .325

2013- .344

2014- .330

2015- .338

 

What the f*** are you smoking? That's one of the stupidest things I have ever read.

 

Revere also had a better K/BB and posted the highest ISO of his career. There's simply no good reason to project him to fall off a cliff when he's 27 years old and healthy.

 

lern2stdev

 

You're a massively arrogant prick for s*** you really don't understand. So glad you ditched all your fantasy teams, would've been a nightmare.

[KingKat]

I'm ready to move EE

 

That's the guy we can most afford to move

 

EE has 10-5. He'll play out his contract. I think he's done after that though.

[Grant77]

lern2stdev

 

You're a massively arrogant prick for s*** you really don't understand. So glad you ditched all your fantasy teams, would've been a nightmare.

 

I took statistics in my masters degree and I'm working on a PhD. You think everyone is stupid and you call them arrogant. Ridiculous. Apparently my team came in first place after I handed it over to Spanky, so nice trash talk.

 

You're being the type of person I hate most. Facts right in front of you and just pure f***ing ignorance. Definitely going on the ignore list. What a useless POS.

[BTS]

Grant vs. GD. This is promising.

[RealAccountant]

EE has 10-5. He'll play out his contract. I think he's done after that though.

 

He will accept the move, if a team is willing to extend him now. There might be teams willing to do that in the American League.

[Grant77]

He will accept the move, if a team is willing to extend him now. There might be teams willing to do that in the American League.

 

A move like that is going to piss off an awful lot of players on a World Series caliber roster. Maybe it doesn't matter, but it's a consideration.

[GD]

I took statistics in my masters degree and I'm working on a PhD. You think everyone is stupid and you call them arrogant. Ridiculous. Apparently my team came in first place after I handed it over to Spanky, so nice trash talk.

 

You're being the type of person I hate most. Facts right in front of you and just pure f***ing ignorance. Definitely going on the ignore list. What a useless POS.

 

You didn't hand it over to Spanky. We all got sick of waiting for you cause you weren't around when the Jays weren't good, so ownership was transferred and Spanky took your middling "John Axford for #9?" team and turned it into something you could look at without vomiting a little. And I still made it further than that team that you're now trying to take credit for. "My" team, lol.

 

Typical Grant, always the first to break out the ad hominems and can't take them back. Despite your supposed degree, you still don't understand that hurr durr his BABIPs were within .020 of each other doesn't actually mean what you think it does. If your statistics degree doesn't work out, I can buy you a new radio for some scouting.

[CHRIS]

Grant vs. GD. This is promising.

 

michael-jackson-popcorn.gif

[nonamejays]

Jays need to

 

Sign two #2/3 starters or better. This can be a guy like Estrada if you can retain him for say 2/20 or 3/30 or some such. I'm not sure I'd spend the $ on Price, but a guy like Zimmerman might make sense. The Jays need at least two good starters.

Keep RA Dickey

 

Sign one of Heyward/Davis. If Heyward, make Jose move to 1B. If Davis, then leave Jose in RF, but use defensive replacements more liberally.

 

Trade Saunders for a relief pitcher or something

 

Re-sign Lowe.

 

 

Have the team set up

 

1. Stroman

2. New Starter

3. Estrada/new starter

4. Dickey

5. Hutchison/Sanchez/Osuna/Hendricks

 

Bullpen

 

Closer - Cecil/Osuna

8th - Sanchez/Cecil/Lowe

7th - Sanchez/Lowe

Left handed reliever - New Guy/Loup if he rebounds

Depth guys - Hendricks/Tepera/Schultz/Delabar/random crappy guy inserted here.

 

C - Martin

1B - Davis/Bautista

2B - Travis

SS - Tulowitzki

3B - Donaldson

LF - Revere

CF - Pillar

RF - Heyward/Bautista

DH - Encarnacion

 

INF - Goins

OF - Pompey

MISC - Colabello

C - New Guy

[Boxcar]

I never realized how little Grant knows about baseball. I always thought he was an arrogant, stubborn dickhead that mostly knew his stuff for some reason and yet here he is providing incredible sig material.

[Angrioter]

Estrada, the Mexican, isn't good at baseball how the people thinks.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Because I'm an armchair baseball GM, this is what I do with the Jays this offseason...

 

First, I give AA a long-term, lucrative offer. He's a top 5 GM for me. Speaks French, loves it here, etc. And his best days are in front of him.

 

Gibbons, geez. I don't know. I'll let you guys decide that one.

 

I would like the Jays to go after Price and Zimmerman. Those two, with Osuna Dickey and Stroman, make up a great rotation for me. But I would be happy with Shark over Zimmerman. I'd offer either Shark and Zimmerman decent 6-year deals to get 'er done. And not to be captain obvious, but going after one decent lefty for the bullpen would be great. Re-sign Cecil please. Hire Hawkins to be the bullpen coach or something.

 

I do not trade Sanchez. No way.

 

I like Revere, seems like a great guy, all heart, loved by teammates, etc. But he's redundant. Pompey for me has more ceiling so he's my everyday LF. I would not sell high on Pillar, in that I do not think we've seen his ceiling. Bautista will come back stronger than ever in RF because (1) it's his contract year, and (2) he's very proud, and was probably a little embarrassed how he looked compared with the speed demons to his right.

 

I pick up Dickey's option. But no Thole. Jiminez is my backup C for next year.

 

And to make the lineup more of an arcade game lineup, and if Rogers feels they've made a s*** ton of money, throw some at Upton, Cespedes or Heywood on a big deal. And then trade one of Pillar or Pompey. Or not. I dunno. But I think that either EE or JB, or both, walk after 2016, so whoever is signed here will effectively replace his bat in the lineup come 2017.

 

I would make a BIG push to re-sign Izturis. Just kidding.

[intentional wok]

Someone has probably already posted this exact opinion in the 17 pages before this one, but I'll never know because I'm not going back to read it:

 

I think some young, studly players need to be brought in. With the very real possibility that 2016 could be the end of either or both of Bautista and Edwin in Toronto, supplementary pieces to Donaldson, Tulo, Martin, and Travis need to be in place. I've seen a few posters throw out the idea of Heyward. I think he'd fit in perfect given the roster projection, not to mention being a very fine player himself. I imagine he'll be a super hot commodity though.

[Boxcar]

Someone has probably already posted this exact opinion in the 17 pages before this one, but I'll never know because I'm not going back to read it:

 

I think some young, studly players need to be brought in. With the very real possibility that 2016 could be the end of either or both of Bautista and Edwin in Toronto, supplementary pieces to Donaldson, Tulo, Martin, and Travis need to be in place. I've seen a few posters throw out the idea of Heyward. I think he'd fit in perfect given the roster projection, not to mention being a very fine player himself. I imagine he'll be a super hot commodity though.

 

We can afford him. Who wouldn't want to hit in this lineup?

 

Also, our main goal for next season is probably run prevention, and having Bautista replaced with Heyward is a massive difference. Pompey/Pillar/Heyward would have to be the best defensive OF in baseball, or very close. GD and King have been talking about it, but I'd love to see if we could pry away Trevor May or (wet dream) Jose Berrios from Minny. May more likely since they moved him to the bullpen for some weird reason. Also Shark would be nice. I'd re-sign Estrada, too.

 

Stroman

Shark

May

Estrada

Osuna

 

Trade Sanchez for the love of god and sign or trade for some underrated pen arms from dumb teams who only care about ERA.

[dineke]

Heyward's getting around 200 million correct? You think rogers will spend that kind of dough?

[intentional wok]

You'd take Shark and Estrada off the FA? Shark I understand, since his value won't have peaked since he had a rocky season. But why not just go for a guy like Zimmermann over Estrada? Estrada excelled but I'm still not convinced he'll be able to replicate even 75% of his 2015 results.

 

Heyward's getting around 200 million correct? You think rogers will spend that kind of dough?

 

Who knows what they'll do now that they've seen how much cheese they can pull in when the Jays are in a race? I wouldn't count on the wallet opening, but I think a good business argument could be made to convince them (if indeed there is one).

[Boxcar]

You'd take Shark and Estrada off the FA? Shark I understand, since his value won't have peaked since he had a rocky season. But why not just go for a guy like Zimmermann over Estrada? Estrada excelled but I'm still not convinced he'll be able to replicate even 75% of his 2015 results.

 

 

 

Who knows what they'll do now that they've seen how much cheese they can pull in when the Jays are in a race? I wouldn't count on the wallet opening, but I think a good business argument could be made to convince them (if indeed there is one).

 

Well, obviously I'd prefer Zimmermann to Estrada but there will be a massive difference in cost. I dunno how much Heyward will cost but I'm sure the FO recognizes that he would be the most beneficial acquisition for this team for the price. I'd hate it if they went out and signed Chris Davis or something but I'm pretty sure they won't.

[dineke]

You'd take Shark and Estrada off the FA? Shark I understand, since his value won't have peaked since he had a rocky season. But why not just go for a guy like Zimmermann over Estrada? Estrada excelled but I'm still not convinced he'll be able to replicate even 75% of his 2015 results.

 

 

 

Who knows what they'll do now that they've seen how much cheese they can pull in when the Jays are in a race? I wouldn't count on the wallet opening, but I think a good business argument could be made to convince them (if indeed there is one).

 

Zimmerman is going to cost a lot.

[BTS]

You'd take Shark and Estrada off the FA? Shark I understand, since his value won't have peaked since he had a rocky season. But why not just go for a guy like Zimmermann over Estrada? Estrada excelled but I'm still not convinced he'll be able to replicate even 75% of his 2015 results.

 

 

 

Who knows what they'll do now that they've seen how much cheese they can pull in when the Jays are in a race? I wouldn't count on the wallet opening, but I think a good business argument could be made to convince them (if indeed there is one).

 

I'm not convinced that payroll will be effected by the run. Their people would have known beforehand what kind of income the playoffs would generate, and they still couldn't afford Valencia or Revere for two months. I'll be surprised if payroll is much higher than 130M.

[jaysblue]

Heyward's getting around 200 million correct? You think rogers will spend that kind of dough?

 

I'd rather spend that dow on Heyward instead of Price.

[Boxcar]

I'm not convinced that payroll will be erected by the run. Their people would have known beforehand what kind of income the playoffs would generate, and they still couldn't afford Valencia or Revere for two months. I'll be surprised if payroll is much higher than 130M.

 

True, but this offseason can transfer momentum. If they make a spash this offseason after a playoff appearance when they became the best team in baseball, they could get back into the 4 million attendance range. Has to factor in, plus ad revenue.

[jaysblue]

Zimmerman is going to cost a lot.

 

I'm sure Zimmermann will wait until Price & Greinke sign contracts, which then would leave him as the top arm available on the market. If Boras is his agent, this likely will happen.

[BTS]

True, but this offseason can transfer momentum. If they make a spash this offseason after a playoff appearance when they became the best team in baseball, they could get back into the 4 million attendance range. Has to factor in, plus ad revenue.

 

I hear you, but any decisions have to be made with an eye to 2017 as well. A team that costs 150 this year will cost 170+ in 2017 and beyond. If there is room to go higher, I hope it's spent on very short contracts. We've seen so many teams fall into the trap of falling short in the playoffs and then adding expensive free agents every year to try and put themselves over the top.

 

Names like Price, Zimmermann, and a $200M Heyward are scary. I hope AA picks his spots well if he does go to the market. His one big splash to date was perfect, with low risk and a ton of upside.

[Boxcar]

Man just imagine it...

 

Heyward

Donaldson

Bautista

Encarnacion

Tulowitzki

Martin

Travis

Pillar

Pompey

 

I'd break the bank for Heyward. Whatever it takes.