Around Baseball 2026

[Eat My Shatkins]

4/$60 million for Varsho would be some tidy work.

 

Wish he wasn't a Boras guy.

[jaysblue]

20 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Varsho extension is a tough one to figure. His dad is a former big leaguer and he is making some darn good money in arbitration. He could also be one of the Top FAs on the market next year. So he's not exactly desperate.

But teams typically don't pay for defense and his offense hasn't been good lately outside of a half season last year that was completely dependent on the long ball.

My guess, at the risk of getting tarred and feathered, is that something like 5/70 would get it done?

I guess so. It’s a bit more than Kirk’s extension, which I’d be comfortable with.

Varsho is also just 28, compared to Bader at 31, and he offers more offensive upside - particularly in terms of power - so it makes sense that he’d command a slightly higher AAV and extra years. Even if Varsho settles in as a 3 WAR player, that’s perfectly fine value.

 

[Laika]

29 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Varsho extension is a tough one to figure. His dad is a former big leaguer and he is making some darn good money in arbitration. He could also be one of the Top FAs on the market next year. So he's not exactly desperate.

But teams typically don't pay for defense and his offense hasn't been good lately outside of a half season last year that was completely dependent on the long ball.

My guess, at the risk of getting tarred and feathered, is that something like 5/70 would get it done?

I don't even want to give him that 5th year

Just not a comforting skill set - dude could be a true talent .180 hitter in 3 or 4 years 

[jaysblue]

Just now, Laika said:

I don't even want to give him that 5th year

Just not a comforting skill set - dude could be a true talent .180 hitter in 3 or 4 years 

Yeah 4 years feels better. 

[Terminator]

So it seems like I'm getting a dash of tar and a light dusting of feathers with my 5/70 idea which tells me that I'm light, probably need to go 5/80 to get it done. And to be clear this rips up his final year of arbitration. 

[Spanky__99]

This is an interesting stipulation in the Belly contract, a lockout clause...

The Yankees and outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger have reunited on a new contract. The Boras Corporation client reportedly gets a five-year deal with a $162.5MM guarantee, with no deferrals. He gets a $20MM signing bonus followed by salaries of $32.5MM in each of the first two years, $25.8MM in each of the next two, then $25.9MM in the final season. Bellinger can opt out after the second or third season, though those opt-outs are pushed by a year if the 2027 season is canceled by a lockout. Bellinger also gets a full no-trade clause. The Yankees have not yet announced a corresponding 40-man roster move.

[Spanky__99]

Also, you guys are high, DV gets more than Ha Seong Kim money man, geez.

[Brownie19]

Chase - Milb Central (@milb_central) • Instagram reel

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

---

milb_central on January 24, 2026: "Albert Mejías is a prospect expected to make history on the international market...

That seems nuts!

 

[mphenhef]

13 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Chase - Milb Central (@milb_central) • Instagram reel

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

---

milb_central on January 24, 2026: "Albert Mejías is a prospect expected to make history on the international market...

That seems nuts!

 

Wow, getting the old Yankee prospect bump before he even signs.  Impressive.

[bronson44]

Passan

BREAKING: Shortstop Jacob Wilson and the Athletics are in agreement on a seven-year, $70 million contract extension that includes an eighth-year club option, sources tell ESPN. Wilson, 23, finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting last season after hitting .311/.355/.444.

[Stangstag]

22 minutes ago, bronson44 said:

Passan

BREAKING: Shortstop Jacob Wilson and the Athletics are in agreement on a seven-year, $70 million contract extension that includes an eighth-year club option, sources tell ESPN. Wilson, 23, finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting last season after hitting .311/.355/.444.

That seems like a great deal for the A’s. Getting some tidy extensions done with solid players. 

[glory]

Figured the A's owner would start spending money as soon as the team was a lock to head to Vegas. They've made some pretty good deals to extend their existing talent. 

[John_Havok]

3 hours ago, glory said:

Figured the A's owner would start spending money as soon as the team was a lock to head to Vegas. They've made some pretty good deals to extend their existing talent. 

Tidy contract for an Arraez clone at SS.

[Brownie19]

38 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Tidy contract for an Arraez clone at SS.

Arraez with defense, speed and more power.  He has a bright future.  Fun guy to watch.

[John_Havok]

43 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Arraez with defense, speed and more power.  He has a bright future.  Fun guy to watch.

You may want to look at his savant page again. 

[sliderguy35]

11 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Arraez with defense, speed and more power.  He has a bright future.  Fun guy to watch.

he's an acceptable shortstop defender but for a small skinny guy, he really isn't all that fast. just 5 stolen bases and no extra value added on the basepaths from taking extra bases and below average sprint speed.

i've liked all their other extensions but think this one really has potential to not look great for the A's. the arraez comparison gets made a lot but arraez has never had a line drive rate of less than 25% in his entire career and has always been within shouting distance or just below the league average groundball rate which is why his averages were so high. wilson was 4th among qualified hitters last year in GB% (over 52%) which probably won't play as well moving forward for a guy without premium wheels.

the power output is probably a bit inflated as well, wilson hit homeruns on 10.5% of his flyballs last year (which is actually below average, 15.6% was league average last year). but, if you look at guys who had a 90th percentile exit velocity less than 100 MPH (aka very weak) and a GB% of greater than 50%, the only person in the entire statcast era to have a HR/FB rate over 10% was jose iglesias in the juiced ball 2019 year (the only year he hit more than 10 HRs in his career). 

of course there's the park factor to consider but they're (supposedly) only going to be playing there for another 2 seasons. the cost of the extension is light enough that it won't sink them but personally, I wouldn't want to be paying "what if jose iglesias was an average defender" that much money in a small market. 

[G-Snarls]

The Giants and infielder Luis Arraez are in agreement on a one-year contract, according to Jorge Castillo of ESPN. Arraez will earn $12MM and is expected to play second base, according to Daniel Alvarez-Montes 

[Jays24]

Arraez is one of the best pure/slap hitters in baseball.  Only if he had speed, power, defensive skills... still like his contact ability lol.  

[Laika]

Jacob Wilson is pretty similar to Ernie a guess 

Not as good with the mitt but not quite as aggressive with the stick either 

[Laika]

[Pendleton]

Some teams still aren't putting much emphasis on defense, Arraez and Devers as the right side of the infield, has the potential to be almost as horrible as the Mets infield.

[Spanky__99]

23 hours ago, John_Havok said:

You may want to look at his savant page again. 

He played the second half with a cracked forearm, he gets a mulligan on that, he's a decent player at that money.

[Spanky__99]

3 hours ago, G-Snarls said:

The Giants and infielder Luis Arraez are in agreement on a one-year contract, according to Jorge Castillo of ESPN. Arraez will earn $12MM and is expected to play second base, according to Daniel Alvarez-Montes 

Woohoo another year at 2nd base for me, hah!

[Spanky__99]

BA the other day on a sleeper article...

 

Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics

Heading into 2025, RoboScout was skeptical about whether there would ever be double-digit power in Wilson’s bat. While I have much less hesitation than my league mates in rostering players like Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan, it is a reality that the perceived value of these profiles makes it difficult to trade them away. The argument nearly became moot, however, as Wilson was busy breaking out in the first half of 2025 with a .329 batting average (not too surprising) and nine home runs (surprising). He tailed off with only four home runs in the second half, but I think that was due to the undiagnosed forearm fracture he was playing through. In other words, I think projections are baking in his second half of 2025 as being “true talent” while I believe he was unfairly being impacted by an injury. So, instead of Wilson being valued as a .280 hitter with 12-15 home runs, I think his median is actually closer to .300 with 16-20 home runs.

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, Spanky__99 said:

BA the other day on a sleeper article...

 

Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics

Heading into 2025, RoboScout was skeptical about whether there would ever be double-digit power in Wilson’s bat. While I have much less hesitation than my league mates in rostering players like Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan, it is a reality that the perceived value of these profiles makes it difficult to trade them away. The argument nearly became moot, however, as Wilson was busy breaking out in the first half of 2025 with a .329 batting average (not too surprising) and nine home runs (surprising). He tailed off with only four home runs in the second half, but I think that was due to the undiagnosed forearm fracture he was playing through. In other words, I think projections are baking in his second half of 2025 as being “true talent” while I believe he was unfairly being impacted by an injury. So, instead of Wilson being valued as a .280 hitter with 12-15 home runs, I think his median is actually closer to .300 with 16-20 home runs.

I dunno. His 100 PA thecyear before ( yes...SSS) was pretty much identical statcast wise to 2025.

Also gotta remember he's playing his home games in a AAA incredible hitters park that will inflate offense. 

Home away splits are massively different.

I could be wrong as he has just 1 full season of PAs, just saying there's real reason to be skeptical 

Good for him to get his bag. 

[sliderguy35]

12 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

BA the other day on a sleeper article...

Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics

Heading into 2025, RoboScout was skeptical about whether there would ever be double-digit power in Wilson’s bat. While I have much less hesitation than my league mates in rostering players like Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan, it is a reality that the perceived value of these profiles makes it difficult to trade them away. The argument nearly became moot, however, as Wilson was busy breaking out in the first half of 2025 with a .329 batting average (not too surprising) and nine home runs (surprising). He tailed off with only four home runs in the second half, but I think that was due to the undiagnosed forearm fracture he was playing through. In other words, I think projections are baking in his second half of 2025 as being “true talent” while I believe he was unfairly being impacted by an injury. So, instead of Wilson being valued as a .280 hitter with 12-15 home runs, I think his median is actually closer to .300 with 16-20 home runs.

is this really analysis that they put on BA? it's fine to mention the injury but just saying "he was hurt so his 1st half splits should just be extrapolated to a whole season" instead of looking how the injury might have changed his peripherals feels incredibly lazy and shallow. the batted ball distribution was similar, the hard hit rate dropped slightly but it was already bottom of the barrel to begin with and not the reason for a 40 point drop in wRC+

it actually feels very similar to joe panik's career arc, remember when he was an all-star? groundball guy with bottom shelf exit velos, strong first full season where he looked like a cornerstone for that franchise and then the BABIP gods came for him. 

 

[Laika]

Wow Suarez really capitulates 

1/$15m to the Reds 

I think most lists guessed 3/$60m for him 

He has 2.0+ WAR projections so on paper it's a great deal for Cincinnati 

Obviously what happened is the industry does not think he's a 3B anymore while the projection systems are still giving him some credit for the defensive side.  

[Carlos Danger]

51 minutes ago, Laika said:

Wow Suarez really capitulates 

1/$15m to the Reds 

I think most lists guessed 3/$60m for him 

He has 2.0+ WAR projections so on paper it's a great deal for Cincinnati 

Obviously what happened is the industry does not think he's a 3B anymore while the projection systems are still giving him some credit for the defensive side.  

As a shareholder of his in Fantasy, I am ecstatic he was signed by the Reds. Def possibility for another 45-50Hr season. With the Ks, he better hit that many HRs!!

[Brownie19]

Geno's been underrated his whole career.  Love seeing him back in Cincy.

[Spanky__99]

5 hours ago, Laika said:

Wow Suarez really capitulates 

1/$15m to the Reds 

I think most lists guessed 3/$60m for him 

He has 2.0+ WAR projections so on paper it's a great deal for Cincinnati 

Obviously what happened is the industry does not think he's a 3B anymore while the projection systems are still giving him some credit for the defensive side.  

Suarez hitting in that barn??? WOOHOO!!!!!!