Around Baseball 2026

[Brownie19]

Is Justyn-Henry Malloy a AAAA guy?  Still pretty young, lights up AAA and has 2 options left.

[Dr. Dinger]

Kinda at the point in my baseball fandom where any time a major trade target goes somewhere other than LAD or NYY, it feels like a win. 
 

Yankees were surely pushing Spencer Jones as a trade chip and the Marlins preferred Caissie. 

[glory]

7 minutes ago, Laika said:

ANYWAY

Cubs acquiring Ed Cabrera, Owen Caissie 🍁 apparently is in the deal 

Yankees fans were so excited too. 

Crazy to think that the Jays are now becoming what the Yankees used to be, and Yankees are counting pennies and firing international scouts. 

[Terminator]

Yankee fans having a meltdown online

[Laika]

Seeing the Yankees hold the bag forever on all their fools gold prospects is a beautiful thing 

Volpe, Jasson, Spencer Jones, etc. 

[Jays24]

12 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Yankee fans having a meltdown online

Gotta share these meltdowns if youre already looking at it lol

[Terminator]

The Yankees and Red Sox turning into the San Francisco Giants spending-wise is such a welcomed development

Remember when we'd get excited when the Jays would sign damn near anyone? We'd sign a toilet like Corey Koskie and it'd put everyone in a good mood.

Meanwhile, George Steinbrenner would look at the MVP voting from the previous year and would go sign and/or trade for several guys who finished in the Top 10.

Lmao it was impossible to compete with them but to now think that we are bigger spenders than the Yankees is a pipe dream come true. 

[Jimcanuck]

Cubs have a pretty strong team, especially if they sign Bregman as rumoured, after trading for Cabrera.

[Omar]

8 minutes ago, Terminator said:

The Yankees and Red Sox turning into the San Francisco Giants spending-wise is such a welcomed development

Remember when we'd get excited when the Jays would sign damn near anyone? We'd sign a toilet like Corey Koskie and it'd put everyone in a good mood.

Meanwhile, George Steinbrenner would look at the MVP voting from the previous year and would go sign and/or trade for several guys who finished in the Top 10.

Lmao it was impossible to compete with them but to now think that we are bigger spenders than the Yankees is a pipe dream come true. 

[Olerud363.354]

1 hour ago, Jimcanuck said:

$700 million.   $460 million (or thereabouts)

I guess most people here except for Jim were born after 1980.  Jim should remember the 70s I think.  Most of you should remember the covid inflation.  Not to be polictical but Donald J. Trump is looking for a new FED chair to lower interest rate to like below 0 or something.  This could increase inflation and will mean Dodgers need to pay more into their fund.

Don't any of you trade bonds?  I guess that is a boring job except for 1970 to 1985 and 2020 to 2023.  However the entire narative that the Dodgers owe 460 is only true if we are in stable inflation/interest rate period.  

 

[Olerud363.354]

To summarize.  The Dodgers don't know what they owe for the Ohtani contract in "present day" dollars.  And neither do you.   

[Olerud363.354]

When I say no one knows what the Dodgers owe for the Ohtani contract, my understanding is they are paying 70 million dollars a year from 2034 to 2043.  Every year from 2024 to 2033 they have to buy an investment (like a 10 year bond) that matures in 10 years to a value of 70 million.  

Inflation doesn't matter.  Interest rates do.  But inflation does matter to the extent it effects bond interest rates.  Interest rates on a 10 year investment will change year to year. 

I think in 2024 that investment was 46 million, it probably would have been a bit more in 25 and a bit more still in 2026.  Maybe I am wrong about how this works... but my understanding is they have to buy an 10 year investment again in 27, 28, 29 until 33.  If something weird happens with inflation and interest rates the amount of money they have to invest year to year. could change by quite a bit. 

[Orgfiller]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Is Justyn-Henry Malloy a AAAA guy?  Still pretty young, lights up AAA and has 2 options left.

He's a 1B/LF/DH at this point, and likely doesn't make up for it in power output that's necessary when you're that defensively limited. Even if he hits okay, the poor defense is going to drag his value down a lot. A 15-20 homer tops 1B/DH with a bad hit tool is just not a valuable player. Likely ends up as a platoon bench bat.

[Terminator]

11 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

To summarize.  The Dodgers don't know what they owe for the Ohtani contract in "present day" dollars.  And neither do you.   

You are losing the forest for the trees. 

1. You've got to back up here. The majority of fans don't understand net present value, inflation, etc. You are getting into specific mechanisms that ultimately determine the exact amounts which will end up making the Net Present Value calculation of a contract off when it's all said on done. But it's confusing enough as it is, no need to further add to that confusion.
2. And even so, from a fan perspective what you are saying doesn't really matter. They calculate the Net Present Value for CBT tax threshold purposes by using a standard formula that gets applied evenly to every signing at the time of the signing and that's all she wrote for how that contract affects the CBT thresholds. 

So yeah, the announced numbers are going to be slightly off compared to the final numbers in the end (though I wouldn't be surprised if the contracts contain provisions that deferral payments are subject to revisions based upon the Consumer Price Index or some other measure), but MLB doesn't care because it's a loose cap and players don't get X% of league revenues. With a hard cap, every dollar matters and can literally prevent teams from doing certain signings and trades. Also, when the players contractually get X% of league revenues you have to pay them exactly that amount or you are in breach of the CBA.

In MLB, they announce the Net Present Value for CBT purposes and the league has collectively agreed that they don't care if that NPV is ultimately off a bit. This is because the soft cap doesn't prevent teams from making moves and it doesn't violate the CBA if the numbers are off slightly either. If they are off, it's just rounding errors on what goes in the league revenue sharing pot and everyone involved has contractually accepted it.

I guess what you are getting at could be getting into the weeds on why deferrals are more beneficial to big spenders rather than small, but whatever concerns there are with that are completely overshadowed by the fact that the small market teams aren't even signing multi-year contracts to begin with. So once again it's missing the forest for the trees.

I've spent way too much time on what feels like billable work but isn't so I'm dipping out of this convo now lol. But to summarize I think it's best to keep it simple and focus only on how this all applies to the CBT thresholds, because that's 99% of the concern. 

[Laika]

34 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

When I say no one knows what the Dodgers owe for the Ohtani contract, my understanding is they are paying 70 million dollars a year from 2034 to 2043.  Every year from 2024 to 2033 they have to buy an investment (like a 10 year bond) that matures in 10 years to a value of 70 million.  

Inflation doesn't matter.  Interest rates do.  But inflation does matter to the extent it effects bond interest rates.  Interest rates on a 10 year investment will change year to year. 

I think in 2024 that investment was 46 million, it probably would have been a bit more in 25 and a bit more still in 2026.  Maybe I am wrong about how this works... but my understanding is they have to buy an 10 year investment again in 27, 28, 29 until 33.  If something weird happens with inflation and interest rates the amount of money they have to invest year to year. could change by quite a bit. 

I believe they need to fund the account by the summer two years after the year in which it was earned.

So money earned in 2025 but deferred needs to be funded by July 1st 2027. That's a deadline - they are allowed to fund the account with the present value of the deferred $68M immediately after it is earned. 

I believe I read that the account needs to be funded assuming 5% growth. The 5% thing is an MLB rule? It's interesting that the 5% assumed growth is an MLB rule. I think the US10Y treasury bonds are like 4.2% right now but they were way lower in Covid and over 10% in the 80s. Interesting this this interest rate does not fluctuate under the CBA and is not tied to anything... 

The two year grace period is interesting because it shows how the rules benefit rich teams. Yes, the Dodgers would have to fund a bit more into the account if they wait but maybe they want to wait in certain years, for flexibility reasons? 

I am guessing the player contracts would remove any discretion by the team. I bet the team HAS to fund the account and buy a guaranteed investment that guaranteed $68M at maturity. So if treasury bonds collapse, the team has to stuff more money in the account when they fund it. Guessing. 

[Nexii]

Aren't the teams doing deferrals mostly so players can avoid income taxes? Therefore increasing a player's take-home pay without costing the team anything in the long run. I didn't think it had much to do with the CBT as that all accounts for NPV. 

I feel like the tax loopholes will be closed though, over the next few years. Governments don't like not getting their tax share.

[Perfect Game]

The trade is now official.

 

[Jimcanuck]

36 minutes ago, Perfect Game said:

The trade is now official.

 

Caissie,  Cristian Hernandez, and Edgardo de Leon

Thats cheap for Cabrera IMO

Caissie certainly has potential but rocked a 28% K rate in the upper minors last year.  That translates to like 35 to 40% in MLB

[BTS]

1 hour ago, Jimcanuck said:

Caissie,  Cristian Hernandez, and Edgardo de Leon

Thats cheap for Cabrera IMO

Caissie certainly has potential but rocked a 28% K rate in the upper minors last year.  That translates to like 35 to 40% in MLB

Cabrera isn't very good, so it seems fine 

[jaysblue]

5 minutes ago, BTS said:

Cabrera isn't very good, so it seems fine 

He’ll also be turning 28 this season.

Looking at his career as a whole, he hasn’t been anything special. Even this past season, he posted just 2 WAR. Sure, there’s still some upside if everything clicks, but his body of work to date hasn’t given much reason for excitement.

[Brownie19]

3 years of control in his prime years for a guy who throws 99 and has upside is valuable.  Of course it's dampened by his injury prone past.

I thought they'd get a "bit" more for him.  Caissie has his own flaws and upside though.  Fun trade!

[Olerud363.354]

17 hours ago, Terminator said:

But to summarize I think it's best to keep it simple and focus only on how this all applies to the CBT thresholds, because that's 99% of the concern. 

So for CBT purposes the value of the contract is calculated the day it is signed?  Not year to year.  That is interesting and opens up another can of worms.  And they assume 5% interest rate?

 

17 hours ago, Terminator said:

So once again it's missing the forest for the trees.

I get what you are saying.  Maybe I am assuming the board has way more financial literacy then they do.  I remember an investment thread on the old board and everyone was making millions during Covid while mostly spending their time posting.  They seemed really sharp about Crypto and stocks, while I shorted NVIDIA and am still trying to figure out how to close that. 

I've lent money to friends who had bad credit card debt, I've bought bonds, and certificates of deposit, I had to decide if I wanted to fund a sunroof on my new Rav4 for $7500 extra compared to the poverty class Rav4 and whether I'd pay for the sunroof today or over 6 years.   So just that pay now/pay later/what are interest rates/ what is inflation/ where are they going? seems to be things regular adults should have experience with. 

 

[Terminator]

3 hours ago, Olerud363.354 said:

So for CBT purposes the value of the contract is calculated the day it is signed?  Not year to year.  That is interesting and opens up another can of worms.  And they assume 5% interest rate?

I don't know what the exact formula is or what assumptions they make. But Ohtani, Cease, Santander, and anyone else who gets deferrals in their contract has the total amount calculated into what they call a Net Present Value. That amount is what counts against the books for CBT luxury tax purposes.

So in Ohtani's case, he signed a 10 year, 700 million dollar deal but the deferrals spread out as far as 20 years. Well they calculated the NPV for that and it's 46 million a year which is what counts on the Dodgers books each year. There aren't any adjustments or anything like that after the fact.

[Laika]

ARTICLE XVI—Deferred Compensation
There shall be no limitations on either the amount of deferred compensation
or the percentage of total compensation attributable to deferred
compensation for which a Uniform Player’s Contract may provide.
...

Deferred compensation obligations incurred in a Contract
executed on or after September 30, 2002 must be fully funded by the
Club, in an amount equal to the present value of the total deferred compensation
obligation, on or before the second July 1 following the
championship season in which the deferred compensation is earned.
For purposes of this Article XVI, full funding of the present value of
deferred compensation obligations shall mean that the Club must have
funded, for the duration of and without interruption in each year, the
current present value of the then outstanding deferred payments, discounted
by 5% annually. If the prime interest rate in effect at The J.P.
Morgan Chase Bank on the immediately preceding November 1 is 7%
or higher, the Parties shall meet and confer regarding this Article XVI
discount rate and may, with due notice to the Clubs, amend such discount
rate effective the next succeeding July 1.
...
Unless the Uniform Player’s Contract provides otherwise, a Club may
fund deferred compensation obligations in such manner as it elects,
provided that: (a) the funding method used by the Club must be such
that the amount(s) funded are exclusively for the uses and purposes of
satisfying the deferred compensation obligation(s) being funded; (b)
the amount(s) funded are maintained in the form of unencumbered
assets comprising cash or cash equivalents and/or registered and unrestricted
readily marketable securities, unless a Club obtains the Parties’
prior written authorization of an alternative form; and (c) such
amount(s) funded are subject to the claims of the Club’s general creditors.
Each Club shall certify quarterly to the Office of the Commissioner
by January 31, April 30, July 31, and October 31 of each year
(and the Office of the Commissioner shall provide such certifications
to the Association within 30 days of their receipt) the manner in which
its deferred compensation obligations that were required to be funded
by the immediately preceding July 1 have been funded. In addition,
upon each quarterly certification, each Club shall provide to the Office
of the Commissioner all records relating to its deferred compensation
funding arrangements, and the Office of the Commissioner shall supply
any such records to the Association upon request.

[G-Snarls]

 

 

[Laika]

6 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

 

 

Damn. Bad blood. Extension never happening in Detroit.

[L54]

24 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

 

 

Slap in the face to Skubal. Doesn’t matter that he only made 10M last year he’s the best pitcher on the planet 

Imagine arguing in front of his face that he’s not worth 32M lol 

Might be traded before the season even begins 

[glory]

I believe the Tigers were one of the teams who just lost their local TV money. There's probably a real chance that Skubal is traded, especially if he wins his arb case. 

[JaysForever]

11 minutes ago, glory said:

I believe the Tigers were one of the teams who just lost their local TV money. There's probably a real chance that Skubal is traded, especially if he wins his arb case. 

So what are the Jays offering? 😄

[G-Snarls]

30 minutes ago, L54 said:

Slap in the face to Skubal. Doesn’t matter that he only made 10M last year he’s the best pitcher on the planet 

Imagine arguing in front of his face that he’s not worth 32M lol 

Might be traded before the season even begins 

Crazy thing is if they'd even come in at 21 or 22M they'd win the case easily.