2025 Trade Deadline

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, Grant77 said:

Mariners #9 prospect Tyler Locklear is the main piece going for Suarez.

We've seen some fringe top 100 guys (on some lists, not others) get dealt, but I wonder if we'll see a real consensus high end prospect get traded at this deadline. Nobody as good as Nimmala or Yesavage has been dealt yet and the top reliever and position player are already gone.

I would not be surprised at all if we end up trading Nimmala for a lesser pitcher than Duran/Helsley.

Atkins has never really been good with the acquisition side of trading, he normally does well selling/flipping for prospects 

[BTS]

9 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

I would not be surprised at all if we end up trading Nimmala for a lesser pitcher than Duran/Helsley.

Atkins has never really been good with the acquisition side of trading, he normally does well selling/flipping for prospects 

I wouldn't be shocked to learn that Atkins was willing to offer Nimmala for Duran and they just preferred Tait + Abel. I think 2.5 years of Duran is by far the most valuable asset that's been dealt so far, and the read that makes the most sense to me is that Minnesota had very strong offers, and are just really high on the two guys they got. 

 

[BB17]

1 hour ago, BTS said:

DiPoto runs the Mariners like a s***** fantasy baseball owner. They traded Suarez before the 2024 season for no real reason, then spent two years running s*** out there at 3B, then had to reacquire him. 

Honestly the Mariners look like the best team in the AL right now. That lineup is stacked and I’m not sure a team has a better top 4 in the rotation.

[Masterbather]

31 minutes ago, BB17 said:

Honestly the Mariners look like the best team in the AL right now. That lineup is stacked and I’m not sure a team has a better top 4 in the rotation.

Rotations in the AL? Detroit maybe. KC if Ragans is healthy. Houston and Texas are really really good at the front end but aren't as deep.

Yeah Seattle might be the most complete team. I don't think they're terrifying though, I don't think any team in the American League is terrifying. As of right now it's still wide open. 

I do think we need help though.

[Laika]

Today is the day. 

[mphenhef]

5 hours ago, BB17 said:

Honestly the Mariners look like the best team in the AL right now. That lineup is stacked and I’m not sure a team has a better top 4 in the rotation.

The left side of their infield will be manned by Crawford and Suarez...that may not end well.

[Grant77]

50 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

The left side of their infield will be manned by Crawford and Suarez...that may not end well.

Their defense as a whole is exceptionally poor, ranking near the bottom of the league. The difference between them and us as per FRV is over 50 runs.

They really took the up the middle thing to heart, as it's really just Raleigh and Rodriguez surrounded by a team that looks like it was specifically constructed to play bad defense.

Their baserunning is very poor and the bullpen is in the bottom third, despite having Munoz and Brash. 

I get that the rotation is great and they can hit fairly well, but it's a deeply flawed .500ish team that is being carried by Raleigh. 

 

[Brownie19]

8 hours ago, Grant77 said:

Mariners #9 prospect Tyler Locklear is the main piece going for Suarez.

We've seen some fringe top 100 guys (on some lists, not others) get dealt, but I wonder if we'll see a real consensus high end prospect get traded at this deadline. Nobody as good as Nimmala or Yesavage has been dealt yet and the top reliever and position player are already gone.

That's a good question.  I certainly think we've seen baseball trending towards keeping your top prospects.  Teams understand just how valuable they are and are much less willing to deal them these days.

[Grant77]

Jays and Cards discussing Phil Maton, according to St. Louis reporter Derrick Good.

I'm ok with that, but not as a replacement for a high level guy like Bednar.

[metafour]

7 hours ago, Stangstag said:

Atkins has never really been good with the acquisition side of trading, he normally does well selling/flipping for prospects 

What.jpg?

Gunnar Hoglund and Kevin Smith for Matt Chapman.

Kendall Williams and Ryan Noda for Ross Stripling.

Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson for Jose Berrios.

Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein for Jordan Hicks.

?

[Terminator]

Lock in boys, today is going to be an insane day

[sliderguy35]

9 hours ago, Grant77 said:

As much as it's fueled by BABIP, we do have to consider Loperfido's major league performance to some extent. You don't just luck your way to a 186 wRC+.

i don't disagree with you that he might be a regular big leaguer one day but davis schneider literally did this 2 years ago but better lol. loperfido is a fine 4th outfielder for now but lets have some perspective, it's been 58 plate appearances. you can absolutely luck your way into a 186 wRC+

would love to see them get maton though, consistently one of the most undervalued guys year to year. another name to consider: pierce johnson on the braves. misses his fair share of bats, doesn't really walk anyone & has a club option for next year

[Laika]

27 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

That's a good question.  I certainly think we've seen baseball trending towards keeping your top prospects.  Teams understand just how valuable they are and are much less willing to deal them these days.

Yes for sure.

Heard on a podcast this morning that last deadline there was one top 100 prospect traded and they ranked 99th on Keith Law's list. Thayron Liranzo. 

The best prospects traded last year in context were Liranzo, Agustin Ramirez (who was a sleeper 50 FV), Bloss, and Dylan Lesko. These were 50 FV or fringe 50 FV guys at the time. All very much back end top 100 candidates. Not really exciting. And Ramirez was traded for a controllable, good MLB player not a rental. 

It is weird. The wild card chase should make it a hard seller's market but teams are just so hesitant to give up good prospects, for anything.

This year so far...

• Jesus Baez is a back end top 100 guy arguably. For part of Helsley.
• Tait and Abel can be seen as 50 FV guys, I guess. 

That might be it for 50 FV or fringe 50 FV guys. So think back end top 100 of honourable mentions territory. 

The Devers trade may not have even fetched a top 100 talent. No obvious 50+ FV. Kyle Harrison used to be one. 

[John_Havok]

10 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Curious how people would react if the Jays did nothing else.

Somewhere between your GDT reactions to Schneider's pen moves and lighting themselves on fire probably.

[Laika]

There is no chance that Toronto does nothing else. 

Worst case Ontario they fail to land any big upgrades, for whatever reason, and pivot to last minute RP and SP depth adds. That would suck I guess. 

But it looks like it will incredibly difficult to pull off a meaningful SP upgrade. 

[glory]

Looks like Stephen for Bieber is close, per Trollosi.

[Ball4Life]

Just now, glory said:

Looks like Stephen for Bieber is close, pet Trollosi.

Of course Morosi breaking a Toronto “deal.”

[John_Havok]

5 minutes ago, glory said:

Looks like Stephen for Bieber is close, per Trollosi.

Straight 1 for 1

I have no problems with this deal, assuming Bieber is healthy

[mphenhef]

2 minutes ago, glory said:

Looks like Stephen for Bieber is close, pet Trollosi.

The structure of his contract probably brings the return down a bit..  Either he comes back good this year and opts out with the team on the hook for another 4 million as part of the opt out.  Or he is bad and opts in for 16 million.

[BB17]

You hope Bieber is healthy cuz that's a lot to give up if he's not.

[Stangstag]

8 minutes ago, BB17 said:

You hope Bieber is healthy cuz that's a lot to give up if he's not.

Whats alot to give up?

[mphenhef]

1 minute ago, Stangstag said:

Whats alot to give up?

Khal Stephen

[Laika]

Hmmm. The player option in 2026 makes Bieber so hard to evaluate. And the injury/rehab of course. 

I wonder if we will find out that some sort of decision or clarity around the option is part of this. 

[Jonn]

If healthy I love getting Bieber but he has barely pitched the last few years.

Still need another bat and reliever.

[metafour]

4 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

Khal Stephen

Khal Stephen is a pitchability type that has blown through High A, but the stuff is still more back-end rotation caliber, and who knows how he handles higher levels. He is also on the phantom DL and hasn't pitched since July 20th.

I knew that they were going to look to sell high on Stephen.

[sliderguy35]

he's almost certainly going to opt out so this is essentially a rental, but probably the best upside play they could have gotten at this point.

apparently he's been 92-94 mph in his rehab starts & if that's the case then there's the front of the line guy we've been looking for. 

Since 2019, Shane Bieber fastballs:

• 92+ mph: .327 xwOBA / 17% whiff rate / 30% K rate
• sub 92 mph: .428 xWOBA / 9% whiff rate / 7% K rate

the curveball & slider have always been unholy offerings that spit in the face of physics itself, but if his fastball is playing up, he's as legit a #1 as you're gonna get.

e: edited because i was double counting 92 mph on the dot, it numbers are actually worse sub 92

 

[mphenhef]

7 minutes ago, Jonn said:

If healthy I love getting Bieber but he has barely pitched the last few years.

Still need another bat and reliever.

At least this means he is safe from gambling investigations

[Brownie19]

This is the type of high risk/high reward move that could help win us the world series.  I'm cool with it.  Now let's land another big bullpen arm.

[Grant77]

6 minutes ago, sliderguy35 said:

he's almost certainly going to opt out so this is essentially a rental, but probably the best upside play they could have gotten at this point.

apparently he's been 92-94 mph in his rehab starts & if that's the case then there's the front of the line guy we've been looking for. 

Since 2019, Shane Bieber fastballs:

• 92+ mph: .327 xwOBA / 17% whiff rate / 30% K rate
• sub 92 mph: .396 xWOBA / 12% whiff rate / 12% K rate

the curveball & slider have always been unholy offerings that spit in the face of physics itself, but if his fastball is playing up, he's as legit a #1 as you're gonna get.

 

Great insight, thank you.

[BB17]

Yeah its a lot to give up but you had to do it. This could be the best chance the Jays have to win the division for the next 7 years so you have to capitalize. Still need a couple bullpen arms.