Article: BREAKING: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Won’t Sign Extension With Blue Jays

[Spanky99]

29 minutes ago, Big_Walleye said:

Because he's clutch.  Something Vlad is clearly not!!!

C'mon dude, Vladdy >> Alonso and it isn't close, as for clutch, here's their High Leverage numbers...

Vlad - .305/.399/.504 .903 OPS 199 ISO .370 wOBA 140 wRC+

Pete - .232/.348/.435 .782 OPS  203 ISO .324 wOBA 108 wrc+

As you can see it isn't particularly close.

[Brownie19]

2 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

How is that a mic drop?  Do you not know maths?

4.8 WAR for Vlad vs 6.5 for Soto would mean Vlad deserves $565 million compared to Sotos $765 million if you use the predicted WAR ratio, which I'm assuming what BTS was trying to show or why did he bring that up?

 

So by BTS (and your) logic, Jays should have been willing to offer him $565 million if they were willing to pay Soto $765 million.

Thanks for making my point.  That if the Jays were willing to give Soto the moon, they should have been willing to meet Vlads asking price, unless he was asking for more than $565 million.

Now use career WAR...

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

5 hours ago, Spanky99 said:

Yup, that was the time to sell the Bassitt's, Gausman's, Bo's, Vlad's of the world and they'd be very far ahead of the game on a rebuild, they decided to compete, it is what it is. Vlad not signing the extension changes nothing. If someone offers up a package for Vlad it'd have to help the team immediately. Next chance might be the deadline, but the season would have to have gone tits up for that to occur.

We'll see GO JAYS GO, baby! 😎

Lots of people were calling for this rebuild then and you ripped them for saying it if I recall.

So yeah...

[Spanky99]

9 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

Lots of people were calling for this rebuild then and you ripped them for saying it if I recall.

So yeah...

Receipts dEaN

[Spanky99]

17 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

How is that a mic drop?  Do you not know maths?

4.8 WAR for Vlad vs 6.5 for Soto would mean Vlad deserves $565 million compared to Sotos $765 million if you use the predicted WAR ratio, which I'm assuming what BTS was trying to show or why did he bring that up?

Thanks for making my point.

I'd be willing to bet he wasn't asking that much.  My guess is he wanted $450 million, which if they were willing to go 765 for Soto but not meet his ask, it's a slap in the face.

Do you not know Maths or reading comprehension? He posted career #'s you 🦤

Laika's graph made you look even more foolish, so there's that.

[Spanky99]

18 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Now use career WAR...

BTS posted it, dEaN is confused.

[Laika]

29 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

How is that a mic drop?  Do you not know maths?

4.8 WAR for Vlad vs 6.5 for Soto would mean Vlad deserves $565 million compared to Sotos $765 million if you use the predicted WAR ratio, which I'm assuming what BTS was trying to show or why did he bring that up?

Thanks for making my point.

I'd be willing to bet he wasn't asking that much.  My guess is he wanted $450 million, which if they were willing to go 765 for Soto but not meet his ask, it's a slap in the face.

So is a 1 WAR player worth $117.69 million? That's how it works right?

Someone needs to slap Vlad with a fish and tell him and his agent that this s*** is not linear and superstar players capable of 8+ WAR seasons enter a different planet of calculations entirely. Compare deez. 

 

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

7 minutes ago, Spanky99 said:

BTS posted it, dEaN is confused.

It's funny that you think I am Dean and are trying to insult me by spelling it like that.  Why am I supposed to be offended by that?  I have no idea who Dean is, so it doesn't bother me one bit.  You have no idea who I am or what I am about.

And why are you even trying to poke fun at anyone?  You're the easiest person to insult here, if one wanted to.  There's so much I could say about you, but I choose not to.

 

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

3 minutes ago, Laika said:

So is a 1 WAR player worth $117.69 million? That's how it works right?

Someone needs to slap Vlad with a fish and tell him and his agent that this s*** is not linear and superstar players capable of 8+ WAR seasons enter a different planet of calculations entirely. Compare deez. 

 

I think you need to go back and read BTS' original reply to me to get it.  Do I really need to spell it out for you?

[Laika]

1 minute ago, Vladdywagon said:

I think you need to go back and read BTS' original reply to me to get it.  Do I really need to spell it out for you?

No, please do spell it out for me. Here's a crayon: 

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

On 2/18/2025 at 1:39 PM, BTS said:

Soto (ZiPS + Steamer) projects for 6.5 fWAR next year. Vlad is at 4.8. These are their respective career stats:

#	Name	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
1	Juan Soto	3 Tms	936	4088	201	655	592	57	18.8%	17.0%	.248	.305	.285	.421	.532	.404		158	-9.8	280.7	-55.0	36.3
2	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	819	3540	160	475	507	20	9.9%	15.6%	.213	.304	.288	.363	.500	.367		137	-14.8	139.8	-91.5	17.0

 

 

This is for Laika who apparently can't read and comprehend.

BTS replied (the above quote) to my post where I suggested Soto was the best hitter in the game but Vlad wasn't that far off.  My argument being that if Soto is worth 765 million Vlad should be worth 450+.

His post clearly shows they have similar counting stats other than runs and walks per at bat over their careers.  He listed Vlad as projected for 4.8 WAR and Soto for 6.5 to show how much better Soto is expected to be. 

Now if you divide the projected WAR for next year4.8/6.5 you get a ratio of 0.738.  meaning Vlad is projecting for roughly 74% of the WAR that Soto is for next season.

So if we can agree that Vlad is approximately 74% of Soto which doesn't seem far off, (and this is using BTS' own numbers) then the logic of the Jays offering Soto 765 million, they should be willing to offer Vlad 74% of that which would be $565 million.

I highly doubt Vlad was asking that much.  I'd be willing to bet his number started with a 4.

It's a slap in the face if they wouldn't meet his number after offering Soto that much.

 

CRAYON DROP.

[Laika]

4 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

This is for Laika who apparently can't read and comprehend.

BTS replied (the above quote) to my post where I suggested Soto was the best hitter in the game but Vlad wasn't that far off.  My argument being that if Soto is worth 765 million Vlad should be worth 450+.

His post clearly shows they have similar counting stats other than runs and walks per at bat over their careers.  He listed Vlad as projected for 4.8 WAR and Soto for 6.5 to show how much better Soto is expected to be. 

Now if you divide the projected WAR for next year4.8/6.5 you get a ratio of 0.738.  meaning Vlad is projecting for roughly 74% of the WAR that Soto is for next season.

So if we can agree that Vlad is approximately 74% of Soto which doesn't seem far off, (and this is using BTS' own numbers) then the logic of the Jays offering Soto 765 million, they should be willing to offer Vlad 74% of that which would be $565 million.

I highly doubt Vlad was asking that much.  I'd be willing to bet his number started with a 4.

It's a slap in the face if they wouldn't meet his number after offering Soto that much.

 

CRAYON DROP.

LMAO okay now go back and read my post where I said "so is a 1 WAR player worth $117.69 million?"

Do you get it yet? Do you know what linear means? 

 

[Spanky99]

On 2/18/2025 at 1:36 PM, thatoneguy said:

I mean he was easily a top 2-3 reason why those teams went to the WS.

 

On 2/18/2025 at 1:36 PM, Rusty_Savage said:

Do you know what Vlad's demands were or are you just assuming?

 

On 2/18/2025 at 1:38 PM, Jonn said:

Paying a 1B who should actually be a DH $450 million would have the potential to be franchise crippling. I doubt the Jays even entertained anything over $400. They were probably comfortable in the 300-325 range and pushed it to 350 to try to get it done. I think the contract if agreed to will look like 10-years 375 with deferred money.

People thinking he will get 450-500 million are insane. Unless he starts playing 3B again and can legit stay there.

 

 

On 2/18/2025 at 1:39 PM, BTS said:

Soto (ZiPS + Steamer) projects for 6.5 fWAR next year. Vlad is at 4.8. These are their respective career stats:

#	Name	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
1	Juan Soto	3 Tms	936	4088	201	655	592	57	18.8%	17.0%	.248	.305	.285	.421	.532	.404		158	-9.8	280.7	-55.0	36.3
2	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	819	3540	160	475	507	20	9.9%	15.6%	.213	.304	.288	.363	.500	.367		137	-14.8	139.8	-91.5	17.0

 

On 2/18/2025 at 1:41 PM, Orgfiller said:

Soto has over double the career WAR that Vladdy has. Career wRC+ of 158 vs Vlad's 137. Career worst season was 3.7 WAR with a 146 wRC+, Vlad's (one year ago btw) was 1 WAR with a 118 wRC+. He's also a better baserunner - bad nonetheless, but not league worst - and defender - also bad, but not league worst.

Soto is at least a tier above Vladdy. He rakes at a level of an all-time great, at his worst he's better than an average Vlad season.

 

On 2/18/2025 at 1:42 PM, Laika said:

fWAR since Vlad debuted in MLB. C'mon my dudes. Relax. We have been there his entire career, we should all know how frustrating he has been for large swathes of that. 

#	Name	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
1	Aaron Judge	NYY	679	2963	227	508	514	36	15.8%	26.4%	.330	.339	.294	.409	.624	.428		181	-2.2	278.7	-18.4	36.7
2	Juan Soto	3 Tms	797	3492	175	565	505	50	19.2%	16.3%	.252	.300	.285	.424	.537	.407		161	-10.9	249.6	-46.9	32.1
3	Francisco Lindor	2 Tms	796	3504	149	514	458	114	8.8%	17.9%	.205	.284	.264	.337	.469	.344		121	7.0	94.3	94.8	31.5
4	Mookie Betts	2 Tms	711	3236	157	574	429	77	11.9%	14.7%	.244	.294	.287	.376	.531	.385		145	9.0	190.2	-1.7	30.2
5	José Ramírez	CLE	786	3388	166	503	547	143	10.1%	12.6%	.246	.273	.277	.352	.523	.364		136	23.0	168.4	13.0	30.1
6	Freddie Freeman	2 Tms	820	3614	151	592	533	61	12.0%	15.9%	.222	.337	.309	.399	.532	.392		149	4.3	224.4	-47.4	29.9
7	Trea Turner	3 Tms	761	3397	125	536	409	151	6.5%	18.6%	.192	.339	.299	.349	.491	.358		126	34.9	145.8	24.1	28.4
8	Marcus Semien	3 Tms	832	3786	159	569	458	75	9.4%	16.4%	.206	.273	.258	.330	.465	.340		118	11.9	95.9	38.4	26.5
9	Shohei Ohtani	2 Tms	761	3235	203	503	506	135	12.2%	25.2%	.295	.325	.281	.372	.576	.393		153	15.5	220.6	-75.9	25.8
10	Alex Bregman	HOU	727	3185	129	458	443	11	12.4%	12.6%	.206	.269	.267	.364	.473	.359		133	-12.3	114.0	23.3	24.7
11	Corey Seager	2 Tms	647	2809	144	404	431	9	9.1%	16.6%	.240	.297	.285	.353	.525	.369		138	-5.5	121.9	24.9	24.2
12	Jose Altuve	HOU	677	3025	123	497	328	66	9.0%	15.5%	.198	.312	.290	.360	.489	.364		136	1.3	131.3	3.7	24.1
13	Xander Bogaerts	2 Tms	746	3179	108	436	385	57	9.0%	17.7%	.178	.331	.295	.361	.472	.357		126	9.8	109.8	19.8	23.7
14	Nolan Arenado	2 Tms	780	3276	151	404	499	14	7.8%	14.2%	.212	.283	.278	.336	.490	.348		118	-4.4	68.7	54.5	23.6
15	Rafael Devers	BOS	775	3384	169	510	535	21	8.6%	20.7%	.244	.318	.285	.352	.529	.368		132	-5.8	122.8	-2.2	23.6
16	Manny Machado	SDP	785	3345	163	457	527	45	9.0%	18.2%	.217	.295	.276	.341	.493	.352		127	-4.2	104.4	14.1	23.4
17	Yordan Alvarez	HOU	629	2668	164	412	466	8	11.9%	20.0%	.285	.322	.298	.390	.583	.406		166	-10.7	198.0	-59.0	23.3
18	Bryce Harper	PHI	701	3016	147	457	440	64	14.3%	22.0%	.249	.331	.286	.391	.535	.388		145	-1.8	167.8	-36.6	23.2
19	Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	587	2660	133	487	337	178	11.5%	21.5%	.231	.330	.288	.380	.518	.382		140	25.2	158.8	-17.6	22.8
20	J.T. Realmuto	PHI	674	2739	106	369	365	65	7.3%	23.3%	.198	.316	.266	.330	.464	.339		113	12.6	55.6	76.7	22.5
21	Dansby Swanson	2 Tms	781	3294	112	453	409	68	8.6%	24.9%	.171	.313	.254	.322	.426	.323		103	16.3	28.6	83.1	22.4
22	Matt Olson	2 Tms	827	3563	206	492	584	6	11.8%	23.4%	.260	.283	.257	.351	.517	.365		134	-8.9	140.9	-49.4	21.5
23	Ketel Marte	ARI	677	2882	115	411	367	31	9.6%	16.0%	.218	.314	.291	.363	.509	.370		133	4.2	122.6	-6.7	21.4
24	Matt Chapman	3 Tms	766	3185	136	432	378	25	10.7%	27.8%	.213	.287	.233	.322	.446	.330		113	2.7	53.8	46.7	21.1
25	Paul Goldschmidt	STL	812	3474	144	476	458	45	11.0%	22.8%	.202	.330	.278	.359	.480	.360		130	0.9	128.8	-47.2	20.3
26	Willy Adames	2 Tms	771	3197	139	412	434	45	9.7%	26.9%	.205	.301	.246	.320	.451	.331		110	2.3	43.4	45.5	19.9
27	Austin Riley	ATL	719	3042	153	426	429	5	7.8%	25.7%	.230	.324	.272	.338	.502	.357		124	-2.9	86.9	-6.0	18.5
28	Brandon Nimmo	NYM	648	2799	84	383	289	29	12.3%	20.8%	.174	.313	.263	.366	.437	.352		127	2.5	96.3	-7.4	18.4
29	Bryan Reynolds	PIT	790	3334	122	432	411	38	9.2%	21.9%	.194	.326	.276	.351	.469	.351		120	-0.5	82.9	-26.7	17.1
30	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	819	3540	160	475	507	20	9.9%	15.6%	.213	.304	.288	.363	.500	.367		137	-14.8	139.8	-91.5	17.0

 

On 2/18/2025 at 1:46 PM, Eat My Shatkins said:

Nice to see some sense in this thread. The money Vlad is asking for is insane, and people want to chastise the FO for not giving it to him? 

Life will go on if the overweight 1B who can't play D or base run walks in FA. Sure, when he's on he can hit, but when he's off he brings nothing else to the table.

 

On 2/18/2025 at 1:47 PM, Orgfiller said:

If you remove the PA qualifier to 0 this actually adds 10 more names to the list in front of Vlad. Also I f***ing love not only that the table copies so neatly, but it keeps all the hyperlinks to guy's pages. This new forum rocks.

Should be noted that Vlad is the second worst defender in this sample behind Kyle Schwarber, and is the 11th worst baserunner behind mostly 30+ year old catchers, old 1B, Alejandro Kirk, and Yandy Diaz.

 

On 2/18/2025 at 2:06 PM, Vancouverite said:

i started posting on this board after being a long-time reader for 15+ years just to say my piece that best course of action is to trade Vladdy!

In his 6 MLB seasons he has 2 great seasons of 6.3 WAR and 5.5 WAR. A decent season of 3.3 WAR and 3 other seasons of 1.3, 0.3 and 0.3 WAR.

He's not that good defensively

He's a 1B

He is one of the worst base runners in the league

He's not athletic

and the guy probably wants somewhere between 450-550 million contract.

Trade this guy ... he's full of himself. he's all about me me me, all about vladdy. I've been saying this all off-season.

I really do hope the BoSoxs or Mets decide to give this guy an albatross of a contract to f*** over their team for the next decade.

 

56 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

How is that a mic drop?  Do you not know maths?

4.8 WAR for Vlad vs 6.5 for Soto would mean Vlad deserves $565 million compared to Sotos $765 million if you use the predicted WAR ratio, which I'm assuming what BTS was trying to show or why did he bring that up?

Thanks for making my point.

I'd be willing to bet he wasn't asking that much.  My guess is he wanted $450 million, which if they were willing to go 765 for Soto but not meet his ask, it's a slap in the face.

All those posts above directed at you and copious other comments railing on Vlad and you choose "Mic Drop" to reply to myself... are you pIsTdEaNmIkE??? 😅🦤

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

4 minutes ago, Laika said:

LMAO okay now go back and read my post where I said "so is a 1 WAR player worth $117.69 million?"

Do you get it yet? Do you know what linear means? 

 

Please, for me because I'm so dumb:

Break down how you get $117 million per WAR from my math?

[Spanky99]

33 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

It's funny that you think I am Dean and are trying to insult me by spelling it like that.  Why am I supposed to be offended by that?  I have no idea who Dean is, so it doesn't bother me one bit.  You have no idea who I am or what I am about.

And why are you even trying to poke fun at anyone?  You're the easiest person to insult here, if one wanted to.  There's so much I could say about you, but I choose not to.

 

K..... dEaNmIkEsPiSt

[Spanky99]

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Vladdywagon said:

How is that a mic drop?  Do you not know maths?

4.8 WAR for Vlad vs 6.5 for Soto would mean Vlad deserves $565 million compared to Sotos $765 million if you use the predicted WAR ratio, which I'm assuming what BTS was trying to show or why did he bring that up?

Thanks for making my point.

I'd be willing to bet he wasn't asking that much.  My guess is he wanted $450 million, which if they were willing to go 765 for Soto but not meet his ask, it's a slap in the face.

Go compare these guy's careers and I suspect you'd understand why Vlad hasn't earned anywhere close to what Soto was paid in free agency. 

Vlad has produced a total of 17 FWAR in his career in 3540 PA, good for an average of 3.125 FWAR per 650 PA. Contrast that with Soto who has produced 36.3 FWAR in 4088 PA, good for 5.77 FWAR per 650 PA. Soto has been much more consistent to the point where he has produced over twice the wins above replacement with only about a single season of extra playing time.

Based on what these guys have respectively accomplished in their careers up to this point there is no conceivable way that Vlad has earned even half of what Soto was just paid. We don't even know what Vlad was asking for, but there could be a hint from David Ortiz who posted that Vlad was worth a 13 year/$585 million contract. If Vlad is actually looking for these types of numbers it should come as no surprise that the team balked at these demands.

[Laika]

39 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

Please, for me because I'm so dumb:

Break down how you get $117 million per WAR from my math?

1 WAR divided by 6.5 WAR = 15.4% 

15.4% of 765M = $117.81M

THEREFOR AND IN CONCLUSION
BY USING THE SOTO VLAD LOGIC
A ONE WAR BASEBALL PLAYER DESERVES A $117.81 MILLION DOLLAR CONTRACT 

[Terminator]

5 hours ago, Jimcanuck said:

Nothing wrong with a 2 year lull, while the team is retooled / rebuilt.  The Red Sox are coming out of one, and look like a good bet for WC or even win ALE.

True but their path would most resemble the Jays resigning Vlad (like they did with Devers) and making mid tier FA signings. They never went full rebuild. 

[spats]

On 2/18/2025 at 9:36 AM, Vladdywagon said:

How can anyone blame Vlad here?

He's said for years he's wanted to play his entire career here.  This front office has never seriously tried to sign him.  Their only attempt was an insulting offer.

These guys offered Soto and Ohtani 700+ million.  There's no way Vlad asked for that kind of money, but obviously he deserves 400+ if they offered Soto 700+.

This is all on the F/O.  Just add it to the top of a long list of screw ups.

How do you know they never tried to sign himand Vladdy can say that he wants to play here, but do we really know that. Btw, 2 years ago many on this site would have given Vladdy away for a bag of balls. Look at the big picture.

 

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

2 hours ago, max silver said:

Go compare these guy's careers and I suspect you'd understand why Vlad hasn't earned anywhere close to what Soto was paid in free agency. 

Vlad has produced a total of 17 FWAR in his career in 3540 PA, good for an average of 3.125 FWAR per 650 PA. Contrast that with Soto who has produced 36.3 FWAR in 4088 PA, good for 5.77 FWAR per 650 PA. Soto has been much more consistent to the point where he has produced over twice the wins above replacement with only about a single season of extra playing time.

Based on what these guys have respectively accomplished in their careers up to this point there is no conceivable way that Vlad has earned even half of what Soto was just paid. We don't even know what Vlad was asking for, but there could be a hint from David Ortiz who posted that Vlad was worth a 13 year/$585 million contract. If Vlad is actually looking for these types of numbers it should come as no surprise that the team balked at these demands.

That's great that you think that.  But the system doesn't agree.  Which is why Vlad got nearly what Soto got in Arb the last few years.

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

1 WAR divided by 6.5 WAR = 15.4% 

15.4% of 765M = $117.81M

THEREFOR AND IN CONCLUSION
BY USING THE SOTO VLAD LOGIC
A ONE WAR BASEBALL PLAYER DESERVES A $117.81 MILLION DOLLAR CONTRACT 

You're just trolling now.  You can't possibly think anyone was implying $765 million for a total of 6.5 WAR.  

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

2 hours ago, max silver said:

Go compare these guy's careers and I suspect you'd understand why Vlad hasn't earned anywhere close to what Soto was paid in free agency. 

Vlad has produced a total of 17 FWAR in his career in 3540 PA, good for an average of 3.125 FWAR per 650 PA. Contrast that with Soto who has produced 36.3 FWAR in 4088 PA, good for 5.77 FWAR per 650 PA. Soto has been much more consistent to the point where he has produced over twice the wins above replacement with only about a single season of extra playing time.

Based on what these guys have respectively accomplished in their careers up to this point there is no conceivable way that Vlad has earned even half of what Soto was just paid. We don't even know what Vlad was asking for, but there could be a hint from David Ortiz who posted that Vlad was worth a 13 year/$585 million contract. If Vlad is actually looking for these types of numbers it should come as no surprise that the team balked at these demands.

Guerrero was awarded 28.5 million in his final year of Arb.

Soto, the year prior was awarded 31.5 million for his final year.  

These are numbers are based on what they actually did.

The system thinks they are worth very close to the same.  Closer than I even do.  I feel that Vlad is 2/3 to 3/4 of Soto, which I think is fair.

Personally I don't think Soto is worth $765 million.

But if he is, the Vlad should be worth 450 easily.

 

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

1 hour ago, spats said:

How do you know they never tried to sign himand Vladdy can say that he wants to play here, but do we really know that. Btw, 2 years ago many on this site would have given Vladdy away for a bag of balls. Look at the big picture.

 

Big picture has him as one of the best players in MLB.

 

https://jaysjournal.com/vladimir-guerrero-jr-listed-in-surprising-spot-in-mlb-network-s-top-100-01jmc5ezgvsq

[Big_Walleye]

3 hours ago, Spanky99 said:

C'mon dude, Vladdy >> Alonso and it isn't close, as for clutch, here's their High Leverage numbers...

Vlad - .305/.399/.504 .903 OPS 199 ISO .370 wOBA 140 wRC+

Pete - .232/.348/.435 .782 OPS  203 ISO .324 wOBA 108 wrc+

As you can see it isn't particularly close.

I'm talking about go-ahead homer in the 9th inning of an NLCS game type of clutch.  What did Vlad do when he saw playoff games?  He certainly wasn't the aircraft carrier he claims to be.

[Terminator]

7 hours ago, Big_Walleye said:

Besides the reasons I've already mentioned,  there's this...

Vlad seems to perform only when there's no pressure to do so.  Last year is a prime example, his numbers were good as a whole, but the bulk of his production came when the team was out of the race.

I would rather have players who perform in the clutch (see Freddie Freeman, Pete Alonso).  I see Bo as this type of player long term as well.

I like dirtbags, real ball players.  Vlad just doesn't fit that description.

You’re talking completely out of your ass. Vlad’s numbers in high leverage situations are off the charts. 

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

How horrible a Blue Jays fan do you have to be to be trying to argue that Vlad isn't worth 2/3 of Juan Soto?

Do you dislike your homegrown star that much?

Because there's nothing coming through the system.  Get ready for some lean years.

[Nexii]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

1 WAR divided by 6.5 WAR = 15.4% 

15.4% of 765M = $117.81M

THEREFOR AND IN CONCLUSION
BY USING THE SOTO VLAD LOGIC
A ONE WAR BASEBALL PLAYER DESERVES A $117.81 MILLION DOLLAR CONTRACT 

I mean if you could count on them to be 1 WAR for 15 years, maybe for a reliever. That'll never happen though with age decline. 

I think age decline is actually most of the reason it's non linear. Soto is probably projected to be more than 74% of Vlads career WAR

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Just now, Nexii said:

I mean if you could count on them to be 1 WAR for 15 years, maybe for a reliever. That'll never happen though with age decline. 

I think age decline is actually most of the reason it's non linear. Soto is probably projected to be more than 74% of Vlads career WAR

Ok now I see where Laika is going with this.

 

I guess by his logic Soto should have be making about 2 million, since Ernie made $757,700 last year, putting up 3.4 WAR

[Jimcanuck]

9 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

Guerrero was awarded 28.5 million in his final year of Arb.

Soto, the year prior was awarded 31.5 million for his final year.  

These are numbers are based on what they actually did.

The system thinks they are worth very close to the same.  Closer than I even do.  I feel that Vlad is 2/3 to 3/4 of Soto, which I think is fair.

Personally I don't think Soto is worth $765 million.

But if he is, the Vlad should be worth 450 easily.

 

Arb awards are not based on market value.