General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, PickleJ said:

Peralta might be the closest. Not really an ace. But his cheap contract pushes his value up. 
 

I’ll be honest. I have lost a sense the prospect capital required to bring in different types of players at the deadline, and it might just be related to the fact teams are more reluctant to deal top prospects at this time, which means the bidding war features that second level of prospects and their value can be very much in the eye of the beholder. The extra wildcard may also add to the murkiness. 
 

So I find much more difficult to anticipate deadline deals now than I did in the past, and so when the Jays hint at their desire to add a starter, a reliever, and a right handed bat now, I know I have to let go of my expectations and prepare to be somewhat surprised.

For sure. Teams are generally smarter now in terms of trading top prospects for rentals so yeah the second and third tier guys become more important, and the guys who have 1 loud tool but might be struggling in the lower minors...those guys matter too. Pinango is a prime example of that.

[Brownie19]

Can AA move Sale while he's on the IL if the other team agrees to it?  I still think there's a chance he moves him.  The question is how much does the price drop due to the uncertainty of that injury?  If the answer is "not that much" than I think there's a chance AA moves him.  I think his comments before the injury was just gamesmanship to drive the price up.

[Jays24]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Can AA move Sale while he's on the IL if the other team agrees to it?  I still think there's a chance he moves him.  The question is how much does the price drop due to the uncertainty of that injury?  If the answer is "not that much" than I think there's a chance AA moves him.  I think his comments before the injury was just gamesmanship to drive the price up.

Would AA move Sale to the Jays with Shatkins in charge?  Just dont see him helping us unless its a severe overpay.  

[Brownie19]

4 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Would AA move Sale to the Jays with Shatkins in charge?  Just dont see him helping us unless its a severe overpay.  

Why? Because he's concerned about what fans think?  That wouldn't be a good look. You move him to whomever you think offers you the best deal.  I don't even buy the nonsense about not wanting to trade within your own division.  Take the best deal for you.

[Masterbather]

4 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Why? Because he's concerned about what fans think?  That wouldn't be a good look. You move him to whomever you think offers you the best deal.  I don't even buy the nonsense about not wanting to trade within your own division.  Take the best deal for you.

Human nature is a thing. Agency problem is a thing. I absolutely believe that teams avoid trading within their own division and I certainly believe people are petty.

It's just the way it is.

Since AA took over Atlanta there hasn't been any trades between the two teams according to Spotrac.

The only other teams the Blue Jays have made no trades with since Atkins took over is Detroit and Baltimore. 

Three with the Yankees, two with Boston and one with Tampa. 

This is with over 100 total trades.

It seems clear that they don't deal with Atlanta since AA, and very rarely deal in the AL East.

 

[jaysblue]

10 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Can AA move Sale while he's on the IL if the other team agrees to it?  I still think there's a chance he moves him.  The question is how much does the price drop due to the uncertainty of that injury?  If the answer is "not that much" than I think there's a chance AA moves him.  I think his comments before the injury was just gamesmanship to drive the price up.

Yeah I think it was just gamesmanship, as well as making it appear to the players on the main roster that he wasn't conceding on the season at the moment given that it was the middle of June and since they just got Acuna and Strider back healthy. Looks bad and destroys player morale. 

Things have changed since during that short time span. Both Sale and Schwellenbach landed on the IL-60 and the Braves sit at 39-50 and 13.5 GB after getting swept by the Orioles at home. Would make sense for the Braves to trade Sale and get something of value. He would actually be the only legit ace available on the trade market. Only worry is the injury, but at least it's not his arm. 

[jaysblue]

Trade Deadline Rotation Arms

Top of the Rotation arms:

1. Chris Sale (if made available and healthy)
2. Brandon Woodruff
3. Freddy Peralta

Top of the Rotation arm reclamation projects:

1. Sandy Alcantara
2. Walker Buehler
3. Zac Gallen

Middle of the Rotation arms:

1. Seth Lugo
2. Merrill Kelly
3. Luis Severino
4. Zach Eflin
5. Nick Martinez
6. Andrew Heaney
7. Tyler Anderson
8. Edward Cabrera (only 27 and has club control) 

 

 

 

[Brownie19]

I'm not sure anyone is going to fix Walker Buehler.  It appears LA squeezed out every last ounce of juice he had in his arm during the 2024 playoffs.  He rolled back to the clock to help them win the championship - and that landed him another $21M - but I think he's toast at this point.

[PickleJ]

@max silver 

I read a few quotes from Kirk this morning in an article about his selection to the all-star team. His current mindset appears to be the complete opposite of what you’d we’re suggesting.. He stated he was too pull/homer focused the past few years and is now focused on hitting the ball to all fields. 

So I took another look at his batted ball profile and it does seem that much of his increase in fly balls has come from concerning ground balls up the middle into fly balls between the gaps.  His home runs also appear to tend towards the big part of the diamond. He has definitely improved his batted ball profile this year by adjusting his approach, which probably contributed to better mechanics, seeing the ball better, and hitting more balls hard (which in turn probably built up his confidence that help stabilize those things), but it also likely contributing to more fly outs in the big part of the field as you suggested.

So I won’t expect a massive shift in his approach this year, but perhaps as he feels more confident in his abilities he will gradually zero in on pitches he can pull over the outfielders heads  

I’d also be curious about your thoughts on Laureano and Bryan Reynolds. I like both as potential acquisitions, but they see to have opposing trends regarding their fly ball profiles. Reynolds appears to have a healthy batted ball metrics except that his launch angle has tanked, while Laureano has had a major shift towards the pull side on fly balls.

 

 

[PickleJ]

I’d also like to throw my an over question about Bryan Reynolds out to everyone else as well. How do you all feel about him?
 

His defence and base running surprisingly suck, but if his production actually lines up with his batted ball metrics again, then his contract is reasonable for a corner outfielder. (I do have a video game bias regarding him, however, as he raked for me on The Show a few years ago.). 

[Brownie19]

I doubt anyone is overly interested in trading for Bryan Reynolds based solely on his contract.  He isn't a bad player, but not the type of guy I want locked up until 2030 - especially since he's already 30.

The promise he showed in 2021 (6.3 WAR) has worn off and while he's not a terrible hitter, his defense tanked.

[jaysblue]

23 minutes ago, PickleJ said:

I’d also like to throw my an over question about Bryan Reynolds out to everyone else as well. How do you all feel about him?
 

His defence and base running surprisingly suck, but if his production actually lines up with his batted ball metrics again, then his contract is reasonable for a corner outfielder. (I do have a video game bias regarding him, however, as he raked for me on The Show a few years ago.). 

I was thinking of Bryan Reynolds the other day as a potential trade candidate, though like Brownie mentioned that contract is the deterrent. Plus not sure he ever returns to being a 5-6 WAR player like he was 2021. His numbers have been regressing each and every season and is going to be on the wrong side of 30. 

[Laika]

12 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Can AA move Sale while he's on the IL if the other team agrees to it?  I still think there's a chance he moves him.  The question is how much does the price drop due to the uncertainty of that injury?  If the answer is "not that much" than I think there's a chance AA moves him.  I think his comments before the injury was just gamesmanship to drive the price up.

The Barves control everyone through 2026 other than Ozuna and Iglesias. 

They will just re-rack and try again next year. Same as Toronto did this year. 

[jaysblue]

Taylor Ward would be a nice RH bat and the Angels likely would move him. This season: 20 HR's, 59 RBI, 115 wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR so far in 87 games. Defensively he's not a huge liability in LF and you could always sub in a better defensive outfielder later in games. 

[Laika]

On the position player side of things, I don't see why the Jays need anything. 

The only exception would be if any of Varsho, Santander, or Gimenez aren't actually coming back this year for some reason. If they are all returning, the offensive/defense will be a complete unit. Davis Schneider suddenly looking like a competent platoon player again is the final touch. 

Focus all efforts on the best SP on the trade market + an elite setup man. 

[Brownie19]

7 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Taylor Ward would be a nice RH bat and the Angels likely would move him. This season: 20 HR's, 59 RBI, 115 wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR so far in 87 games. Defensively he's not a huge liability in LF and you could always sub in a better defensive outfielder later in games. 

Yeah he's always a solid player.  He's 31 and we have him under control for next year too.  Hits lefties well, but holds his own v. RHP too.

Wonder what he would cost.  He seems like a bit of a luxury pickup as we likely need to focus on the rotation/bullpen first.

[Eat My Shatkins]

With Burr back, Green looking better as of late and Yimi only nursing a sprained ankle the bullpen seems pretty legit from top to bottom and they still have some legit looking options in AAA with Fluharty, Bruihl and Estrada. 

 

If the Jays were to bring a high leverage reliever, who gets the boot?

 

1. Hoffman

2. Rodriguez 

3. Garcia

4. Little

5. Fischer

6. Burr

7. Sandlin 

8. Green

 

[Laika]

I'd still boot Green. I guess Sandlin has options so he could go to AAA instead. 

[jaysblue]

33 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

With Burr back, Green looking better as of late and Yimi only nursing a sprained ankle the bullpen seems pretty legit from top to bottom and they still have some legit looking options in AAA with Fluharty, Bruihl and Estrada. 

 

If the Jays were to bring a high leverage reliever, who gets the boot?

 

1. Hoffman

2. Rodriguez 

3. Garcia

4. Little

5. Fischer

6. Burr

7. Sandlin 

8. Green

 

I would boot Green, no questions asked. Sandlin has options as well. 

Also, a lot could still happen over these next couple of weeks in terms of injuries/IL stints. Always better to have more reinforcements/options than being left scrambling down the stretch. 

If the Jays don't add an elite/top-of-the-rotation starter, I think they need to add another high leverage arm or two since they're going to be riding their BP hard in a Postseason series, especially if they only allow their starters go 4 to 5 innings. 

[Jays24]

I cant believe I've moved into the "we are good for bats" category if Varsho/Santandar comeback healthy. 

This team needs a true ace to face other teams aces in the playoffs.  We have some good SP2/SP3/SP4 on the team but no one is a SP1 on a World Series contender good right now.  

[PickleJ]

30 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

I was thinking of Bryan Reynolds the other day as a potential trade candidate, though like Brownie mentioned that contract is the deterrent. Plus not sure he ever returns to being a 5-6 WAR player like he was 2021. His numbers have been regressing each and every season and is going to be on the wrong side of 30. 

I definitely have the same misgivings. But ever so often I wonder if his contract might actually be a bargain if he is able to consistently get to the 2.5-4.5 WAR range as corner outfield bat. 

After this year, he has 5 years at approximately 15 mil per season (and luxury tax hit of slightly newly that). It runs until he 35, but does have a $20 million club option for his age 36 season. I don’t see his contract as any worse than Santador’s and it is much cheaper than the one we gave to Springer. Of course, being not worse than Santandor and cheaper than Springer doesn’t really add up to a reason to acquire him, but if they give him away, then I’d be tempted. 

His decline from his 6.0 WAR season is noticeable, but I think we might have to separate this year’s decline from the last three. During the past three, he evolved from a centre fielder to a corner outfield bat (and not a great defensive one), which downgrades his peak WAR potential. But this year’s decline is funkier.

His average exit velocity is still 91.6 mph. His max is over 112 mph. And his xWOBA is 0.360. His launch angle collapsed into the bad Vlad range at 6.7 and his pulled FB rate has plummeted, which for some reason means he is underperforming on fastballs compared to the past. All the metrics seem within his typical range, including bat speed. This hints at more of a prolonged slump than a rapid decline  

I find his performance to be quite curious.

(Though he is still not as good as he was in video game a few years ago.)

 

[jaysblue]

4 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

I cant believe I've moved into the "we are good for bats" if Varsho/Santandar will comeback healthy.  This team needs a true ace to face other teams aces in the playoffs.  We have some good SP2/SP3/SP4 on the team but no one is a SP1 on a World Series contender good right now.  

Ideally an ace would be a huge help, however the limited options available and acquisition cost might not be viable. 

Sure, you might be able to acquire a reclamation project like Sandy Alcantara or Zac Gallen, though there is no guarantee the ship could be righted with them in such a short time window. 

Would target high leverage relievers instead if the Jays can't acquire a top of the rotation arm. 

[PickleJ]

24 minutes ago, Laika said:

I'd still boot Green. I guess Sandlin has options so he could go to AAA instead. 

If we acquire a second lefty to take the pressure off of Little, then I’d send Sandlin down for now. But if we acquire a lower righty (either alone or in addition to a lefty), then I’d let go of Green.

Could Green be dealt rather than released if we ate some of his contract?

[PickleJ]

12 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

I cant believe I've moved into the "we are good for bats" if Varsho/Santandar will comeback healthy.  This team needs a true ace to face other teams aces in the playoffs.  We have some good SP2/SP3/SP4 on the team but no one is a SP1 on a World Series contender good right now.  

The bat is probably only helpful if Santador is done for the year. Even then, the bat is 3rd on my list of priorities. 

[Terminator]

1 minute ago, PickleJ said:

Could Green be dealt rather than released if we ate some of his contract?

Someone would take him. We might not get anything more than a little bit of salary relief but there are contenders with trash bullpens that need warm bodies and will like his vetrin presents.

[Jays24]

4 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Ideally an ace would be a huge help, however the limited options available and acquisition cost might not be viable. 

Sure, you might be able to acquire a reclamation project like Sandy Alcantara or Zac Gallen, though there is no guarantee the ship could be righted with them in such a short time window. 

Would target high leverage relievers instead if the Jays can't acquire a top of the rotation arm. 

Ya there arent many true Aces floating around on the trade market.  Even getting someone who could be a SP2 and then go with the hottest pitcher leading into the playoffs could be a better decision. 

That or an ELITE left handed bullpen arm.  Not sure if Little will hold up with teams slowly realizing he doesnt throw strikes lol. 

[PickleJ]

3 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Someone would take him. We might not get anything more than a little bit of salary relief but there are contenders with trash bullpens that need warm bodies and will like his vetrin presents.

I little salary relief is always helpful if we are switching in a better arm for Green. Maybe we could get a Robertson like guy back. Haha 

[PickleJ]

He does throw a lot of 55 foot breaking balls.

[PickleJ]

 

6 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Ya there arent many true Aces floating around on the trade market.  Even getting someone who could be a SP2 and then go with the hottest pitcher leading into the playoffs could be a better decision. 

That or an ELITE left handed bullpen arm.  Not sure if Little will hold up with teams slowly realizing he doesnt throw strikes lol. 

Little that is. He throws a lot of 55 footers.

[PickleJ]

Are there any sneaky starters going into there first arb contract or in early arb years besides Cabrera that might be dealt? The Pirates seem open to doing some weird things. (I’m not talking about Skenes here.).