Potential Free Agents 2025

[jaysblue]

O'Neill had been straight garage the previous 2 season (combined PA's of 1 full season). Always hurt, wRC+ < 100. He was a lottery ticket this year that has paid off. There was probably a 5-10% chance he would give any team a >130 wRC+ bat and a 2.5-3 WAR season. There's probably the same likelihood that Kepler - or O'Neill provide that to a team in 2025.

 

That said, I heard one of the reason's O'Neill is hitting this year is because he's MUCH better with breaking balls. If that's a skill he's developed (and not just luck), then perhaps the chances of him repeating his production this season go up (although it's always tough to bet on a guy with a 33% K rate). Kepler feels like a guy who'll sign for like 1 year $4M or as a minor league free agent. 32 year old, often injured, platoon bat with a career wRC+ of 103? Hard pass IMO - just let the youngsters play.

 

And that's why he was a great "buy low" bat last offseason who had some power upside to put in LF or DH. Posted a 5.3 WAR season along with a 143 wRC+ in 2021. The options the Jays went with had very limited upside, were old and injury prone as well. We saw that those moves didn't work out.

 

Interesting info and that's good to hear he made some adjustments this season with off breaking balls. On a one or two-year deal, O'Neill would be a great fit here either as a DH or in LF. Not my first choice but as a second bat to target, he would be nice. This lineup needs power and you gotta hope they target two guys who can hit 25-30+ HR's for LF and DH.

 

Kepler still has some potential to be a 25 HR bat if he's healthy and it's not like 2023 was lightyears ago. I have no problem rolling the dice on him as a second bat if the Jays landed Santander, or traded for someone like Rooker.

[jaysblue]

I think the Jays need to look at the trade market to fix at least one of the holes. Free agency isn't going to fix everything, and they have a bunch of depth cluttered in the upper minors so some might be expendable. I don't mind one FA contract that is a bit of an overpay but if they are going for multiple, then that's where teams get in trouble. I'd rather trade for an arb eligible Tyler O'Neill than sign him to a multi year FA deal into his 30's. I guess wait for MLBTR to do their projected arb salaries and see who might be a realistic trade piece. Wouldn't mind taking a chance on someone who hasn't developed yet but is showing interesting enough statcast numbers like Jesus Sanchez, but who knows if he's available or not.

 

I think the one FA that fits what the Jays typically like (lower K rate) while also checking other boxes (switch hitter, big power) is Santander, so I'd expect them to be involved in that market. He can start at DH and also cover RF for Springer, so it's a double benefit. Just a matter of what his price tag is going to be. I really don't see another realistic impact FA option since Soto is a massive pipe dream, Alonso plays the same position as Vlad (+ has Boras an agent), and Bregman (another Boras guy) is a bit too risky for me given his age and the amount of years he'd likely want. If they didn't want Teoscar on a multi year deal last winter when he was coming off a Safeco impacted down year, then I can't see them revisiting that now that he's boosted his value. They also could have traded table scraps for Tyler O'Neill and didn't do it (though maybe they tried).

 

The issue is the Jays really don't have many attractive assets who they could move in the trade market. Would they have enough to trade for Brent Rooker or maybe Mason Miller from the A's? I would love it if they were able to land Rooker as a big bat! Not sure if the A's trade Miller, but damn he would be nice in the pen.

 

There are plenty of corner OF/DH's available via free agency who likely won't require long term deals anyways, and all they would cost is money. As well, there are plenty of mid-rotation arms available via free agency that shouldn't demand more than 2 or 3 year deals.

[Spanky__99]

The issue is the Jays really don't have many attractive assets who they could move in the trade market. Would they have enough to trade for Brent Rooker or maybe Mason Miller from the A's? I would love it if they were able to land Rooker as a big bat! Not sure if the A's trade Miller, but damn he would be nice in the pen.

 

There are plenty of corner OF/DH's available via free agency who likely won't require long term deals anyways, and all they would cost is money. As well, there are plenty of mid-rotation arms available via free agency that shouldn't demand more than 2 or 3 year deals.

 

Are the A's looking to trade Rooker?

[Stangstag]

Would any of us really be shocked to see the front office triple down and sign a bunch of IKF/KK types again next offseason???

 

I would not be surprised if they didn’t bring in a big homerun hitter yet again.

[Pendleton]

Are the A's looking to trade Rooker?

 

The reports from the deadline were that they were reluctant to move him https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/as-reluctant-to-trade-brent-rooker.html

 

They shouldn't move him unless they get a haul, but they also may continue to have a weird interpretation of what a haul should look like. Unless they are given the greenlight to spend and try to build up more of a contender, he seems like a classic sell high situation for a bad club.

[Spanky__99]

The reports from the deadline were that they were reluctant to move him https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/as-reluctant-to-trade-brent-rooker.html

 

They shouldn't move him unless they get a haul, but they also may continue to have a weird interpretation of what a haul should look like. Unless they are given the greenlight to spend and try to build up more of a contender, he seems like a classic sell high situation for a bad club.

 

Yeah, that's what I was referring to, he has control until he becomes a FA in '28 but is basically a FT DH, if he's available I'd want in. What would land Brent Rooker is the question? Hmm...

[Funky]

I am in the blow your wad in Vlad and Soto boat. Both young, friends, great hit tools with power. Ones a lefty and ones a righty. Both suck at defense but we have guys like Varsho etc whose defensive play helps make up for that void.

 

These guys should be in the top tier of batters for the next ten years and are basically the age or younger than the prospects we are trying to get a look at. These guys help both currently and a long time into the future.

 

Ownership has the money to make this happen. They have a whole country of fans that will get on board the more exciting this team is.

 

We are a couple years away from shedding some major contracts like Springers, Bassitt’s etc where we can add the next piece.

 

Not many guys I would gamble on heavily but Soto’s youth and track record make him that guy for me.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Would any of us really be shocked to see the front office triple down and sign a bunch of IKF/KK types again next offseason???

 

I would not be surprised if they didn’t bring in a big homerun hitter yet again.

 

They may not bring in a big ticket home run hitter next off season, but IMO it won't be because they don't try to.

[The_DH]

It's going to be really tough to compete for the big name players, and not just because of the team. Canada is really high on taxes but it could be handled through deferrals.

[jaysblue]

Are the A's looking to trade Rooker?

 

Maybe. They've been a team historically that has traded arbitration eligible players and Rooker is going to be 30 next season.

Edited August 28, 2024 by jaysblue

[infinitebook]

It's going to be really tough to compete for the big name players, and not just because of the team. Canada is really high on taxes but it could be handled through deferrals.

 

Its actually not that big of a difference. Jays run their spring training in Florida and play half their games in the US, so most of their salary is not even taxed by Canada. It's especially negligible if you're competing against the Yanks/Mets, cause NY is a high tax state.

[jaysblue]

It's going to be really tough to compete for the big name players, and not just because of the team. Canada is really high on taxes but it could be handled through deferrals.

 

Yeah gotta factor in the higher taxes for sure which is why the Jays do have to pay more for FA's in some instances. Also, a lot of players have a huge advantage playing here with the $USD since everything is 30-40% cheaper for them as a consumer.

[Terminator]

Are the A's looking to trade Rooker?

 

It seems like Fisher was trying to purposely tank the team in the final few years to force the move to Vegas.

 

Now that he got that deal done, they might not be as cheap as they once were.

 

I doubt he starts writing blank checks, but they may try and be respectable the next 3 years so they can try and be competitive in Vegas.

[jaysblue]

I am in the blow your wad in Vlad and Soto boat. Both young, friends, great hit tools with power. Ones a lefty and ones a righty. Both suck at defense but we have guys like Varsho etc whose defensive play helps make up for that void.

 

These guys should be in the top tier of batters for the next ten years and are basically the age or younger than the prospects we are trying to get a look at. These guys help both currently and a long time into the future.

 

Ownership has the money to make this happen. They have a whole country of fans that will get on board the more exciting this team is.

 

We are a couple years away from shedding some major contracts like Springers, Bassitt’s etc where we can add the next piece.

 

Not many guys I would gamble on heavily but Soto’s youth and track record make him that guy for me.

 

Yeah said the same thing.

 

You might never have this opportunity again having the chance at two young hitters like Vladdy and Soto playing together and being a dominant force for the next decade.

[max silver]

Yeah gotta factor in the higher taxes for sure which is why the Jays do have to pay more for FA's in some instances. Also, a lot of players have a huge advantage playing here with the $USD since everything is 30-40% cheaper for them as a consumer.

 

I don't think Canadian taxes are that much higher than most US locations. It's primarily the states with no state income tax that have a huge advantage over the rest of MLB.

[G-Snarls]

I don't think Canadian taxes are that much higher than most US locations. It's primarily the states with no state income tax that have a huge advantage over the rest of MLB.

 

[Spanky__99]

They may not bring in a big ticket home run hitter next off season, but IMO it won't be because they don't try to.

 

This isn't like last offseason, there's plenty of guys available.

[max silver]

Would any of us really be shocked to see the front office triple down and sign a bunch of IKF/KK types again next offseason???

 

I would not be surprised if they didn’t bring in a big homerun hitter yet again.

 

I would be massively shocked if a bunch of lighter hitting defense first players were brought aboard.

[Omar]

I would be massively shocked if a bunch of lighter hitting defense first players were brought aboard.

 

I would. Shapiro indicated in his last media scrum that they have re-evaluated their approach to roster construction for next season. Definitely a different approach is to be expected.

[max silver]

He did post a 2.8 WAR season in 2023, but alright lol. I doubt Kepler gets a multi year deal given what we saw the market for corner OF bats last offseason and the amount of them available this offseason. As well, not suggesting Kepler be the No. 1 target for the Jays. As a second bat after lets say Soto, Santander, Teo, or if the Jays pulled a trade for someone like Brent Rooker, Kepler is not a bad target.

 

A lot of people were saying the same thing about Tyler O'Neill last offseason when his name was being suggested.

 

I don't think Kepler makes any sense for the Blue Jays as a target. He offers limited realistic offensive upside and the team is flush with young left handed outfield options. This includes Barger, Loperfido and Roden. I think there's a very good chance that every one of those players offers a superior offensive season to Kepler and he wouldn't actually provide an upgrade.

[G-Snarls]

I would. Shapiro indicated in his last media scrum that they have re-evaluated their approach to roster construction for next season. Definitely a different approach is to be expected.

 

I kinda like players who are good at both

[max silver]

I kinda like players who are good at both

 

Those dudes are harder to come by and tend to cost a premium in trade and free agency.

[jaysblue]

I don't think Kepler makes any sense for the Blue Jays as a target. He offers limited realistic offensive upside and the team is flush with young left handed outfield options. This includes Barger, Loperfido and Roden. I think there's a very good chance that every one of those players offers a superior offensive season to Kepler and he wouldn't actually provide an upgrade.

 

Have any of those guys posted a 3 WAR season or hit 25 + HR's?

 

You can't go into 2025 relying on Barger, Loperfido and Rosen as starters and expect to contend. You can't be fooled over what they have done over the last couple of weeks. They're nice to have as depth, so if an injury does happen to an outfielder or if a signing like Kepler doesn't pan out, you have alternatives.

 

Ideally, they sign or target better players but all I said is that Kepler wouldn't be a bad target as a second bat brought in if they needed cheaper alternatives than the other guys available via free agency.

[jaysblue]

I kinda like players who are good at both

 

Same here as well, but realistically this team needs to add power to the lineup and if it means sacrificing a bit of defense in LF for a guy who could hit 25-30 HR's, it's something you can live with. The Jays can't afford to field an all-defensive lineup as we saw for the past two seasons as it didn't work.

 

Especially if they plan on rolling with Clement at 3B, they can't afford playing someone like KK again in the outfield on an everyday basis.

[Spanky__99]

Have any of those guys posted a 3 WAR season or hit 25 + HR's?

 

You can't go into 2025 relying on Barger, Loperfido and Rosen as starters and expect to contend. You can't be fooled over what they have done over the last couple of weeks. They're nice to have as depth, so if an injury does happen to an outfielder or if a signing like Kepler doesn't pan out, you have alternatives.

 

Ideally, they sign or target better players but all I said is that Kepler wouldn't be a bad target as a second bat brought in if they needed cheaper alternatives than the other guys available via free agency.

 

Kepler's s***.

[max silver]

Have any of those guys posted a 3 WAR season or hit 25 + HR's?

 

You can't go into 2025 relying on Barger, Loperfido and Rosen as starters and expect to contend. You can't be fooled over what they have done over the last couple of weeks. They're nice to have as depth, so if an injury does happen to an outfielder or if a signing like Kepler doesn't pan out, you have alternatives.

 

Ideally, they sign or target better players but all I said is that Kepler wouldn't be a bad target as a second bat brought in if they needed cheaper alternatives than the other guys available via free agency.

 

I never said to rely on any of those as starters. I think the team needs to shoot a lot higher this offseason than Kepler. 3 of the last 4 seasons have seen him below 100 wRC+ and that seems like the most likely type of output to expect from him. I think that any of the guys I listed have a decent shot to provide that type of offensive output, except with the benefit of being paid league minimum salary instead of costing real money in free agency.

[L54]

It seems like Fisher was trying to purposely tank the team in the final few years to force the move to Vegas.

 

Now that he got that deal done, they might not be as cheap as they once were.

 

I doubt he starts writing blank checks, but they may try and be respectable the next 3 years so they can try and be competitive in Vegas.

 

I agree with you Term. I’ve been wondering how they are going to operate going forward. I don’t think they’re heading to Vegas to pinch pennies the way they have. There is a huge opportunity there if you’re good and the downside of being trash is you’re just another thing to do in Vegas

[jaysblue]

I never said to rely on any of those as starters. I think the team needs to shoot a lot higher this offseason than Kepler. 3 of the last 4 seasons have seen him below 100 wRC+ and that seems like the most likely type of output to expect from him. I think that any of the guys I listed have a decent shot to provide that type of offensive output, except with the benefit of being paid league minimum salary instead of costing real money in free agency.

 

Yeah I think we all agree that the team needs to shoot the highest it can this offseason. Soto would be the prize but as an ideal pivot if you could sign Santander along with one of Teo, Pederson, O'Neill that would be perfect. Then they'll need around $15M+ or so to bring in a second tier SP like Eovaldi, Kikuchi, Severino or Pivetta on a short term deal to shore up the middle of the rotation and then they will need to spend maybe around $10-15M on bringing in a couple of bullpen arms. That doesn't even include a third baseman, since I'm assuming they want to save some money and roll with Clement at the hot corner. If they don't care about going over the luxury tax, then sure! But if they have to watch every nickel and dime, they might have to target a lesser outfielder as a second bat like Max Kepler or Michael Conforto since they would be cheaper than Santander, Teo, Pederson or O'Neill.

[jaysblue]

Kepler's s***.

 

In 2023, his 124 wRC+ would have ranked third behind Brandon Belt (138 wRC+) and Bo Bichette (125 wRC+). His 2.8 fWAR would have ranked third as well. And his 24 HR's would have ranked second on the team, behind Vlad's 26.

 

Yeah he's s*** and his bat would have no place in this Jays lineup lol.

[jaysblue]

It seems like Fisher was trying to purposely tank the team in the final few years to force the move to Vegas.

 

Now that he got that deal done, they might not be as cheap as they once were.

 

I doubt he starts writing blank checks, but they may try and be respectable the next 3 years so they can try and be competitive in Vegas.

 

Yeah good point Term.

 

We'll have an idea what the A's do this offseason and likely aren't going to be cheap as they once were since they probably want to try to field a WC contending team during their first season in Vegas.