Potential Free Agents 2025

[Laika]

Kepler projects for a 106 to 110 wRC+ and something like 1.5 to 2.5 WAR depending on playing time and the projection system you look at

 

Scaled to 450 PA his WAR over the last FIVE years is also essentially in that range ^ (2023 being the only exception where was slightly above that)

 

He's a s*** signing for $10M and it would be a lot like KK/IKF/Turner this last offseason where money is wasted on a crusty veteran

 

But if he is signing for less than that, then he's a fine piece to have. I am not sure he's even an upgrade on both of Loperfido/Barger -- same xwOBA as Barger this year while Loperfido probably brings more speed/defense to the table -- but if they trade some young players this offseason maybe Kepler fits. His age is concerning and the drop off in barrels and hard hit balls is also concerning, but his maxEV is still there and his defense still looks decent. I dunno. Personally, I would just give the roster spot to Loperfido/Barger and spend money elsewhere.

[Brownie19]

Kepler projects for a 106 to 110 wRC+ and something like 1.5 to 2.5 WAR depending on playing time and the projection system you look at

 

Scaled to 450 PA his WAR over the last FIVE years is also essentially in that range ^ (2023 being the only exception where was slightly above that)

 

He's a s*** signing for $10M and it would be a lot like KK/IKF/Turner this last offseason where money is wasted on a crusty veteran

 

But if he is signing for less than that, then he's a fine piece to have. I am not sure he's even an upgrade on both of Loperfido/Barger -- same xwOBA as Barger this year while Loperfido probably brings more speed/defense to the table -- but if they trade some young players this offseason maybe Kepler fits. His age is concerning and the drop off in barrels and hard hit balls is also concerning, but his maxEV is still there and his defense still looks decent. I dunno. Personally, I would just give the roster spot to Loperfido/Barger and spend money elsewhere.

 

Bingo - this isn't a difficult read. The probability he repeats 2023 is quite low.

[jaysblue]

There is nothing wrong with Max Kepler as a second bat if other bats are off the table later in the offseason or are too expensive and the Jays need to be conscious of payroll. Nobody is suggesting the Jays sign Max Kepler on Day 1 of the offseason lol. All I said is he actually wouldn't be a bad option. Brownie, Max and Spanky just love disagreeing when I throw a name out there, but they never offer any suggestions of their own.

 

Laika made some good points above. I disagree however grouping him in with the crusty veterans like IKF/KK and Turner. Kepler will be 32 next season and at least has some upside offensively in terms of power. If Kepler is going to cost $10M, I agree that is too expensive. Would rather sign Conforto if he came on a one-year contract around that AAV. Regardless, hopefully the Jays could target two better bats this offseason!

[Laika]

Bingo - this isn't a difficult read. The probability he repeats 2023 is quite low.

 

But the chance that he provides say 1.5 WAR is much higher than getting that from, say, Addison Barger

 

I am just not sure the roster needs INSURANCE in that soft spot. The roster needs IMPACT in that hole. There is already enough insurance due to the young-ish position player depth. I think. Like, one of Barger, Schneider, Loperfido, Horwitz, Clase, or even Wagner (or some platoon combo of two of them) is almost certain to be a 1.5 WAR dude

 

In theory the Jays are in a MUCH better position this offseason. Last offseason they probably felt like they had to make a few 1.5 WAR projection FA signings because their MiLB depth did not look this good. Now, almost every position on the roster is covered by the boring but decent collection of twenty-something Buffalo guys and trade acquisitions.

[jaysblue]

Bingo - this isn't a difficult read. The probability he repeats 2023 is quite low.

 

You're making it sound like I was suggesting Max Kepler should be the Jays No. #1 target this offseason lol. Give it a rest man!

 

Even guys like Term said Kepler wouldn't be a bad second bat if the Jays weren't able to land anyone else better.

 

Why don't you offer some suggestions on some possible free agents rather than sitting back and criticizing others?

 

Stop trying to pick these stupid senseless arguments in order to try and sound superior. Kepler's name was brought up as an option if the Jays missed out on other FA targets this offseason. You're so insufferable man.

[Brownie19]

But the chance that he provides say 1.5 WAR is much higher than getting that from, say, Addison Barger

 

I am just not sure the roster needs INSURANCE in that soft spot. The roster needs IMPACT in that hole. There is already enough insurance due to the young-ish position player depth. I think. Like, one of Barger, Schneider, Loperfido, Horwitz, Clase, or even Wagner (or some platoon combo of two of them) is almost certain to be a 1.5 WAR dude

 

In theory the Jays are in a MUCH better position this offseason. Last offseason they probably felt like they had to make a few 1.5 WAR projection FA signings because their MiLB depth did not look this good. Now, almost every position on the roster is covered by the boring but decent collection of twenty-something Buffalo guys and trade acquisitions.

 

I would completely agree with this. All of it.

 

I'd put Conforto in the same camp. He hasn't been impactful since 2020 and is entering his age 32 season. Leaving the confines of Oracle Park should help, but I'd rather see what we have in Barger, Loperfido, Rodon, Clase, Wagner, etc. The only way I see Kepler/Conforto making any sense at all is if we trade away some of the younger depth and/or they come in here on like 1 year $4M deals. If Conforto costs $10M+, I think we'd be better to use that money on pitching and roll with the youngsters.

Edited August 29, 2024 by Brownie19

[jaysblue]

Ideally, the roster does need TWO IMPACT bats either at LF or DH. You hope you can get 3-4 WAR seasons from those two bats you bring in this offseason. If they only can get one like Santander for one of those spots, they might have to settle on someone like O'Neill, Conforto or Kepler as a second bat.

 

Outfield depth isn't a bad thing given Springer will be 35 next season. As well, losing Varsho for an extended period of time in CF would hurt. Having Barger, Schneider, Loperfido, Horwitz, Clase, or Wagner as insurance puts the Jays in a better position over 162 games. I expect Horwitz to be the everyday 2B next season anyways.

 

The team needs to add power to the lineup. If someone like O'Neill or Kepler offer 25 HR + upside, would rather roll with them in LF or at DH over the guys mentioned above. If they don't pan out or if injuries happen, then you have that depth which is a good thing.

[L54]

Is there room to bring in two corner outfielders who can’t play CF? If no then is Kepler really that attractive?

[Brownie19]

Is there room to bring in two corner outfielders who can’t play CF? If no then is Kepler really that attractive?

 

I think the thought is 1 of them would DH a lot (or allow Springer to DH more). If the Jays think they do need 2 impact bats, I think ideally one of them plays 3rd (or 1st if we're serious about playing Vlad at 3rd a lot). I certainly don't think adding 3-4 WAR combined from 2 impact bats is going to be enough. If that's the type of impact you're going to get - I'd rather spend the money on pitching.

 

I still think all of this hinges on what they do with Bo.

[Laika]

Yeah I think they could bring in two of them but one of them is the primary DH.

Santander, Profar, O'Neill, and Teoscar are all DH candidates at this point in their careers anyway. I think they all have negative defensive numbers this year in the OF corners but none of them are so bad that you can't put them out there for 50 games if necessary.

[jaysblue]

Is there room to bring in two corner outfielders who can’t play CF? If no then is Kepler really that attractive?

 

You're trying to address the lack of power in the lineup. Most likely any corner OF you bring in can't be relied on to play CF over an extended period of time.

 

Kepler played 22 games in CF in 2021 and 60 in 2019.

 

Conforto last played 39 games in CF in 2019.

 

Tyler O'Neill played 13 games in 2023 and 21 games in 2022.

 

Anthony Santander last played CF in 2019 in 24 games.

 

I'm sure in an emergency, or over a short period of time these guys could play some CF, but ideally you have Loperfido as your 4th outfielder who can play CF heading into 2025, not as your starting left fielder.

[jaysblue]

I think the thought is 1 of them would DH a lot (or allow Springer to DH more). If the Jays think they do need 2 impact bats, I think ideally one of them plays 3rd (or 1st if we're serious about playing Vlad at 3rd a lot). I certainly don't think adding 3-4 WAR combined from 2 impact bats is going to be enough. If that's the type of impact you're going to get - I'd rather spend the money on pitching.

 

I still think all of this hinges on what they do with Bo.

 

Just curious who at 3B would be an impactful player if brought in? Are we talking about signing Bregman or Chapman? Not many 3B available via free agency or trade. But please suggest some names. I think a lot of us agreed having Clement as a 3B since he would be cheap and at least decent wouldn't be a bad thing if the Jays needed to save money. You can likely squeeze 2+ WAR out of him.

 

As for 1B, would you sign Pete Alonso or Christian Walker to play 1B and move Vlad to 3B where he plays there at least 75% of the time? Are there any other 1B on the trade market you would suggest?

 

They need to add 3-4 WAR each from the two bats they add, not combined lol. Then also add another mid-rotation SP that could provide around 3 WAR along with some bullpen pieces as well.

[glory]

Yeah the Jays don’t need depth, they need impact. Even if they sign one impact player and go cheap elsewhere, that’s probably a more sensible approach than trying to add 1 or 2 WAR players in bulk. Between Horwitz, Loperfido, Jimenez, Barger, Schneider, Wagner, and Clement, they probably have enough depth pieces to cover for injuries. Now they need to add players closer in talent level to Vlad and pre 2024 Bo. That’s going to be tough because the market doesn’t have many of those types, and the few they have are risky long term bets (Bregman, Alonso) but that’s the reality of the situation if they want to throw that Hail Mary attempt at contention. At this point just give 13/650 to Soto or whatever insane number it will take and stars/scrubs the rest of the roster.

[L54]

You're trying to address the lack of power in the lineup. Most likely any corner OF you bring in can't be relied on to play CF over an extended period of time.

 

Kepler played 22 games in CF in 2021 and 60 in 2019.

 

Conforto last played 39 games in CF in 2019.

 

Tyler O'Neill played 13 games in 2023 and 21 games in 2022.

 

Anthony Santander last played CF in 2019 in 24 games.

 

I'm sure in an emergency, or over a short period of time these guys could play some CF, but ideally you have Loperfido as your 4th outfielder who can play CF heading into 2025, not as your starting left fielder.

 

You realize players become less athletic as they get older right? Just because Max Kepler played 73 innings of CF in 2019 doesn’t mean you want him doing it in 2025

[L54]

Like sure if you add Tony Santander and Devin Williams and Alex Cobb and then sign Max Kepler for 1/6M or something it’s fine but I don’t think Kepler is going to address the lack of power in the lineup. He grades well defensively though so that’s cool

[RobinThicc]

Vlad at 3B, Walker at 1B

[Laika]

Tier 1 = Soto

Tier 2 = Burnes, Bregman

Tier 3 = Fried, Snell, Chapman, Adames

Tier 4 = Kim, Alonso, Bellinger, Flaherty, Santander, Bieber, Kikuchi, Eovaldi, Teoscar, Walker, O'Neill (and various others)

 

You have $50M to spend after spending a bit on the bullpen and fringes of the roster (backup C). How are you spending it?

[wilko]

Is there room to bring in two corner outfielders who can’t play CF? If no then is Kepler really that attractive?

 

I'd f*** em.

[glory]

Vlad at 3B, Walker at 1B

 

Vlad at 3B does seem like the best option. Not sure how he'd hold up there all season (even if it's 70% of the time) but it's the position he wants to play and he'll be motivated to get that massive contract, so 2025 is the year to try it, IMO. If it fails, then so be it. Move him back to 1B/DH. The 3B market is Bregman and nothing. The minors is McAdoo (if he can even play there long term) and nothing. There are way more capable 1B/DH options in FA than 3B options. Not sure a left side of the IF of Vlad and Bo in 2025 will be fun to watch from a defensive aspect, but add wins where you can, and the Jays need to start adding it on offense rather than defense.

[Terminator]

Tier 1 = Soto

Tier 2 = Burnes, Bregman

Tier 3 = Fried, Snell, Chapman, Adames

Tier 4 = Kim, Alonso, Bellinger, Flaherty, Santander, Bieber, Kikuchi, Eovaldi, Teoscar, Walker, O'Neill (and various others)

 

You have $50M to spend after spending a bit on the bullpen and fringes of the roster (backup C). How are you spending it?

 

I'd probably just take Soto and call it an offseason. But nice things don't happen to the Blue Jays so I imagine we will finish as one of the finalists.

 

So barring that I would be in on Snell and one of Santander or O'Neill. I'd also kick the tires on signing Kim and trading Bo.

[wilko]

Tier 1 = Soto

Tier 2 = Burnes, Bregman

Tier 3 = Fried, Snell, Chapman, Adames

Tier 4 = Kim, Alonso, Bellinger, Flaherty, Santander, Bieber, Kikuchi, Eovaldi, Teoscar, Walker, O'Neill (and various others)

 

You have $50M to spend after spending a bit on the bullpen and fringes of the roster (backup C). How are you spending it?

 

Tier 1 please.

[Laika]

I'd probably just take Soto and call it an offseason. But nice things don't happen to the Blue Jays so I imagine we will finish as one of the finalists.

 

So barring that I would be in on Snell and one of Santander or O'Neill. I'd also kick the tires on signing Kim and trading Bo.

 

They might be able to squeeze THREE tier 4 guys into the budget. $15M, $15, $20M

[glory]

Tier 1 = Soto

Tier 2 = Burnes, Bregman

Tier 3 = Fried, Snell, Chapman, Adames

Tier 4 = Kim, Alonso, Bellinger, Flaherty, Santander, Bieber, Kikuchi, Eovaldi, Teoscar, Walker, O'Neill (and various others)

 

You have $50M to spend after spending a bit on the bullpen and fringes of the roster (backup C). How are you spending it?

 

Anyone who doesn't say Soto is crazy. It's a huge long shot, probably not even worth dreaming about, but if you want to make a ridiculous overpay on anyone, Soto is the guy. They'd have to extend Vlad though for that to even have a glimmer of hope. Selling Soto on playing next to another Dominican star player who is basically the same age would be one of the few selling points they have. Judge will be 33 next season, and Lindor 31. Soto is 5 months older than Vlad. Defer money, do what you have to do, but that's the player to get.

 

More realistically, something like Eovaldi and Santander or Walker would probably be fair. Term shouldn't be that long due to age, and there's 3 WAR potential there for each of them. There are enough warts on Tier 2/3 to have some pause on signing them, either due to the years they'd want, the money, or both.

[Laika]

Anyone who doesn't say Soto is crazy. It's a huge long shot, probably not even worth dreaming about, but if you want to make a ridiculous overpay on anyone, Soto is the guy. They'd have to extend Vlad though for that to even have a glimmer of hope. Selling Soto on playing next to another Dominican star player who is basically the same age would be one of the few selling points they have. Judge will be 33 next season, and Lindor 31. Soto is 5 months older than Vlad. Defer money, do what you have to do, but that's the player to get.

 

More realistically, something like Eovaldi and Santander or Walker would probably be fair. Term shouldn't be that long due to age, and there's 3 WAR potential there for each of them. There are enough warts on Tier 2/3 to have some pause on signing them, either due to the years they'd want, the money, or both.

 

Yeah I am not super interested in tiers 2 and 3

I mean I won't be MAD if they sign Burnes or Snell but the money might be weird

 

Plan A - balls out for Soto

Pivot - as many tier 4 guys as possible

[Stangstag]

I will settle for Soto + Alonso/Santander and not a penny less

 

I have my pitchfork sharpened and ready to go

[Terminator]

Bring me Blake Snell. Rare situation where you can sign an ace to just a 4 or 5 year deal. The Jays can keep him healthy.

[Terminator]

Failing signing Snell or someone of that caliber I wonder if we should just pass on a major SP signing.

 

Seems like anyone worth a damn is going to cost an AAV of 12M+ and it bumps Yariel out of a spot. I think he's done quite well after being a reliever in '22 and not pitching in '23, so any mid tier signing is going to cost a pretty penny and won't improve the team a whole lot.

 

That said, signing a FA and moving Yariel to a swingman role is a good way to build depth, but I think we could address that by trading a Buffalo Boy for an equivalent AAA pitcher to go with Bloss and Macko as the depth. We can always add an arm at the trade deadline if we prove we are contenders.

[Brownie19]

Failing signing Snell or someone of that caliber I wonder if we should just pass on a major SP signing.

 

Seems like anyone worth a damn is going to cost an AAV of 12M+ and it bumps Yariel out of a spot. I think he's done quite well after being a reliever in '22 and not pitching in '23, so any mid tier signing is going to cost a pretty penny and won't improve the team a whole lot.

 

That said, signing a FA and moving Yariel to a swingman role is a good way to build depth, but I think we could address that by trading a Buffalo Boy for an equivalent AAA pitcher to go with Bloss and Macko as the depth. We can always add an arm at the trade deadline if we prove we are contenders.

 

I think there's definitely a case to be made that we need to aim high. We need impact players, not depth players (like a Max Kepler). The only place we need depth right now is in the bullpen...I think you try to fix that with several low cost high risk/reward types.

[Laika]

The case for signing Snell is that the Jays do not have enough pitching depth with upside. There are almost zero such SP prospects in the system who could even possibly contribute in the next couple of years, other than Yesavage.

 

Used to have Tiedemann but realistically he has no chance of being a front line SP anymore. Perhaps more likely to be a 2 WAR RP than a 2 WAR SP!

Bloss, Macko are backend SP prospects. Honestly, you are happy if they are 1 WAR SP5 types. Expect SP6 results.

Y Rod and Francis aren't much more promising. SP4 production would be amazing. Expect SP5/SP6.

Any other SP prospect with upside in the system aside from the hopeless Tiedemann and this Yesavage guy are yearssssssssssss away.

 

On the other side of the ball the Jays may not have a ton of high upside bats either but they do have a bunch of depth from guys who could more realistically be 2 win players. Every guy we have seen this year could do that. Some could be a bit better. Sort of a sneaky underrated group of young bats tbh.

 

If they do not sign a guy like Snell the rotation probably has no viable playoff SP1 or even SP2. None of us would be very excited about rolling with the 2024 version of any of Gausman, Berrios, or Bassitt in game one of a playoff series.

[Laika]

Blaun Snoto it is