GDT: 1/3 Red Sox vs Jays (7:07pm et)

[Olerud363]

Little off topic but has there been a more disappointing team over a 15 year span than the Angels.... ever?

 

Unfortunately Trout and Ohtani never actually overlapped as elite full time players. By the time Ohtani was elite (2021) Trout was getting injured.

 

The closest they came was 2022 when they totaled 15 WAR. The 2022 Angels scored 610 runs https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2022.shtml

 

I was trying to figure out that is even possible when you have two great hitters and Taylor Ward also had a great year. Those three were basically an elite 1-2-3.

 

I guess somehow the rest of the team was sub-replacement. Several guys put up like .260 on base percentages.

 

I guess the Angels of that era were a 60 win team with two 10 WAR talent players, one injured half the time, so that = a 75 win team.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Spanky you should be ashamed of yourself for cheering the Jays on. That's not how you're supposed to fan anymore.

 

You're supposed bitch and whine and complain about everything you can possibly think of, complain about the front office incessantly, call anyone who shows any positivity a pathetic homer/cheerleader/front office fellating moron, and also make sure that for 5,853rd time you make sure everyone knows that "YOU CANT BELIEVE THE FRONT OFFICE DIDNT DO ANYTHING TO FIX THE TEAM" and if we'd just signed 'X' instead of 'Y' we'd be a true juggernaut.

 

(X = a FA from last off season that's doing great, Y = a Jays player they signed instead that is doing terrible (lots to choose from here))

 

C'mon man get with the times.

[L54]

Spanky you should be ashamed of yourself for cheering the Jays on. That's not how you're supposed to fan anymore.

 

You're supposed bitch and whine and complain about everything you can possibly think of, complain about the front office incessantly, call anyone who shows any positivity a pathetic homer/cheerleader/front office fellating moron, and also make sure that for 5,853rd time you make sure everyone knows that "YOU CANT BELIEVE THE FRONT OFFICE DIDNT DO ANYTHING TO FIX THE TEAM" and if we'd just signed 'X' instead of 'Y' we'd be a true juggernaut.

 

(X = a FA from last off season that's doing great, Y = a Jays player they signed instead that is doing terrible (lots to choose from here))

 

C'mon man get with the times.

 

Really nobody does this though

 

Most people just point out the flaws

 

Serious Q though - if no player could have “fixed” the offense, what is the definition of “fixed” in this argument? Best offense in the league? Top 5? Most runs scored?

 

It’s an arbitrary line without any real substance so I’m curious to hear your thoughts

[Laika]

The whining about not signing Teoscar is dumb in my opinion because hindsight free agent selections are just logically problematic. We never have any idea what discussions were and were not had, what the players wanted etc. FA generally is also just a huge crapshoot these days so it's too convenient to go back and say Toronto should have signed X player that is having a good season. They could have elevated their sights to that tier of the player pool and ended with Jorge Soler, right?

 

On the other hand, lots of people wanted Tyler O'Neill and it is actually incredibly annoying and lame that he Jays evidently did not make a serious push for him. And we know that this was an actionable decision because the player has no say in it - the gray area is so much smaller here because all we have to do is say that Toronto needed to beat the actual trade package. And that trade package was weak. It looks like it was a crummy 35 FV depth SP in Victor Santos (getting pumelled in AAA) and then a so-so RP with team control in Nick Robertson (also 35 FV per Fangraphs).

 

So for two 35 FV prospects and $5.8M in salary, Toronto could have had a player that fit an obvious hole in LF and had demonstrated well above average upside.

 

I guess Atkins just fell in love with Kevin Kiermaier's pretty face or something. Sigh.

 

And O'Neill was dealt from a team that frequently trades with Toronto.

 

The Jays just didn't want Tyler O'Neill at all I guess.

[L54]

The whining about not signing Teoscar is dumb in my opinion because hindsight free agent selections are just logically problematic. We never have any idea what discussions were and were not had, what the players wanted etc. FA generally is also just a huge crapshoot these days so it's too convenient to go back and say Toronto should have signed X player that is having a good season. They could have elevated their sights to that tier of the player pool and ended with Jorge Soler, right?

 

On the other hand, lots of people wanted Tyler O'Neill and it is actually incredibly annoying and lame that he Jays evidently did not make a serious push for him. And we know that this was an actionable decision because the player has no say in it - the gray area is so much smaller here because all we have to do is say that Toronto needed to beat the actual trade package. And that trade package was weak. It looks like it was a crummy 35 FV depth SP in Victor Santos (getting pumelled in AAA) and then a so-so RP with team control in Nick Robertson (also 35 FV per Fangraphs).

 

So for two 35 FV prospects and $5.8M in salary, Toronto could have had a player that fit an obvious hole in LF and had demonstrated well above average upside.

 

I guess Atkins just fell in love with Kevin Kiermaier's pretty face or something. Sigh.

 

And O'Neill was dealt from a team that frequently trades with Toronto.

 

The Jays just didn't want Tyler O'Neill at all I guess.

 

It might be dumb but it’s also dumb to claim there was nothing that could have been done

[Laika]

It might be dumb but it’s also dumb to claim there was nothing that could have been done

 

Yes they could have traded for Tyler O'Neill

[Eat My Shatkins]

Really nobody does this though

 

Most people just point out the flaws

 

Serious Q though - if no player could have “fixed” the offense, what is the definition of “fixed” in this argument? Best offense in the league? Top 5? Most runs scored?

 

It’s an arbitrary line without any real substance so I’m curious to hear your thoughts

 

 

Well, it's been about 3 months of me posting my thoughts about this all over this forum ad nauseam, but sure why not do it for the umpteenth time right?

 

I think right now the Jays have about the 25th most runs scored in the league,

 

Let's just say the Jays FO was as smart as you guys with your 100% hindsight and were able to sign Teo and JDM out of the half a dozen or more options everyone was also pining for last off season, like Soler and Gurriel for an example of guys who suck at the plate this year but no one brings up NOW with again...100% hindsight at their disposal. And lets also assume they were able to perform as well here in Toronto as they are on the Dodgers and Mets. And lets not forget that this is assuming they were even willing to sign with the Jays (which we don't know, we can only speculate).

 

Since we're already assuming a whole bunch of other stuff let's just keep assuming that even if they would have signed with the Jays that they would have signed for the same money and term, $35.5 million combined.

 

How much does that improve the offense? (remember we are assuming they are just ripping it up here like they are on the other teams)

 

Probably safe to say we move up to middle of the pack as far as runs scored? So yeah, definitely an improvement. Is it fixed? I guess that depends on your definition of "fixed". I mean, I guess since we assuming so much stuff here you can assume, if you want to, that all the rest of the Jays hitters would just magically be much better hitters just with the mere presence of these two on the roster.

 

But you've spent $35.5 million more than is allowed so we have to remove some of the players they did sign instead. IKF ($7.5) KK ($10.5) JT ($13.0) add up to $31 million.

 

Obviously these perfectly executed hindsight changes would result in a better offense. Is it fixed? Probably not, with guys like Springer, Kirk and Bo still rocking sub .600 OPS's, but what do I know? I'm just an Atkins knob gobbler.

 

It would certainly take away some jam from our defense though, and the only way I know how to compare these things would be fWAR I guess??

 

JDM + Teo = 3.1 fWAR

IKF + KK + JT = 1.4 fWAR

 

So a gain of 1.7 fWAR.

 

Again, assuming the same level of performance in a Jays uni and a willingness to sign here.

 

How did the FO ever miss this great opportunity to "fix" the Jays last off season?

[L54]

Well, it's been about 3 months of me posting my thoughts about this all over this forum ad nauseam, but sure why not do it for the umpteenth time right?

 

I think right now the Jays have about the 25th most runs scored in the league,

 

Let's just say the Jays FO was as smart as you guys with your 100% hindsight and were able to sign Teo and JDM out of the half a dozen or more options everyone was also pining for last off season, like Soler and Gurriel for an example of guys who suck at the plate this year but no one brings up NOW with again...100% hindsight at their disposal. And lets also assume they were able to perform as well here in Toronto as they are on the Dodgers and Mets. And lets not forget that this is assuming they were even willing to sign with the Jays (which we don't know, we can only speculate).

 

Since we're already assuming a whole bunch of other stuff let's just keep assuming that even if they would have signed with the Jays that they would have signed for the same money and term, $35.5 million combined.

 

How much does that improve the offense? (remember we are assuming they are just ripping it up here like they are on the other teams)

 

Probably safe to say we move up to middle of the pack as far as runs scored? So yeah, definitely an improvement. Is it fixed? I guess that depends on your definition of "fixed". I mean, I guess since we assuming so much stuff here you can assume, if you want to, that all the rest of the Jays hitters would just magically be much better hitters just with the mere presence of these two on the roster.

 

But you've spent $35.5 million more than is allowed so we have to remove some of the players they did sign instead. IKF ($7.5) KK ($10.5) JT ($13.0) add up to $31 million.

 

Obviously these perfectly executed hindsight changes would result in a better offense. Is it fixed? Probably not, with guys like Springer, Kirk and Bo still rocking sub .600 OPS's, but what do I know? I'm just an Atkins knob gobbler.

 

It would certainly take away some jam from our defense though, and the only way I know how to compare these things would be fWAR I guess??

 

JDM + Teo = 3.1 fWAR

IKF + KK + JT = 1.4 fWAR

 

So a gain of 1.7 fWAR.

 

Again, assuming the same level of performance in a Jays uni and a willingness to sign here.

 

How did the FO ever miss this great opportunity to "fix" the Jays last off season?

 

Usually in a post this long the point is lost sorry

 

1.7 WAR in 40% of a season is like 3 or 4 wins

 

That’s a lot for a team on the fringes

[L54]

Yes they could have traded for Tyler O'Neill

 

There were lots of moves

[connorp]

The whining about not signing Teoscar is dumb in my opinion because hindsight free agent selections are just logically problematic. We never have any idea what discussions were and were not had, what the players wanted etc. FA generally is also just a huge crapshoot these days so it's too convenient to go back and say Toronto should have signed X player that is having a good season. They could have elevated their sights to that tier of the player pool and ended with Jorge Soler, right?

 

On the other hand, lots of people wanted Tyler O'Neill and it is actually incredibly annoying and lame that he Jays evidently did not make a serious push for him. And we know that this was an actionable decision because the player has no say in it - the gray area is so much smaller here because all we have to do is say that Toronto needed to beat the actual trade package. And that trade package was weak. It looks like it was a crummy 35 FV depth SP in Victor Santos (getting pumelled in AAA) and then a so-so RP with team control in Nick Robertson (also 35 FV per Fangraphs).

 

So for two 35 FV prospects and $5.8M in salary, Toronto could have had a player that fit an obvious hole in LF and had demonstrated well above average upside.

 

I guess Atkins just fell in love with Kevin Kiermaier's pretty face or something. Sigh.

 

And O'Neill was dealt from a team that frequently trades with Toronto.

 

The Jays just didn't want Tyler O'Neill at all I guess.

 

Teo a little different, bc he was a target mentioned by a lot of people. Also, we did get the inside info through Teo and they made a friendly phone call and not much else. Profar would be the Hindsight 20/20 guy

[glory]

Before the off season began I would have bet on the Jays being the ones to trade for O’Neill. Pre-2023 Atkins would have. Post 2023 Atkins thinks anyone with a K% over 20 is bad so probably didn’t even consider it.

[BigCecil]

The entire ecosystem of fandom and sports media, and the existence of this Board, is based on "reports" and speculation. Fans don't know in 99.9% of FA signings and trade discussions all the details and discussions. We really just know the outcomes.

 

How many times in a trade of Moreno have fans speculated on why Kirk was not moved instead? Very few ever will really know any trade or FA signing behind closed door discussions or how a player like Kirk or O'Neil was valued by various teams and our FO.

 

Hindsight is always 20/20 on trades and FA signings and for time immemorial fans will always pass judgement on them both. And thats ok because all FOs are paid to be right, more often than not. Thats literally their job, along with making money for their ownership.

 

I don't understand the argument that player X FA speculation is not logical but the O'Neil trade speculation is as logical as Dr. Spock. Variables exist and info is lacking in both.

 

I know what the incremental WAR delta of JT/Vogelbach DH tandem and their AAV vs other potential options - but out of morbid curiosity what impact would for example would inserting a .230 ISO bat or even two have on our runs scored in a nerd model?

[connorp]

It’s impossible to quantify the impact of a couple strong bats. You go down a never ending rabbit hole of when the hits come, this pitcher throws this pitch instead of that pitch due to the situation, this pitcher gets pulled for this pitcher, etc.

 

Also, as you’re dealing with humans, how winning 3 or 4 games instead of losing them in a short period, may change approach.

 

If could have also very little to no impact. So admittedly, the best thing is the nerd model and just use whatever incremental value it says. But certainly isn’t the be all tell all.

[BigCecil]

It’s impossible to quantify the impact of a couple strong bats. You go down a never ending rabbit hole of when the hits come, this pitcher throws this pitch instead of that pitch due to the situation, this pitcher gets pulled for this pitcher, etc.

 

Also, as you’re dealing with humans, how winning 3 or 4 games instead of losing them in a short period, may change approach.

 

If could have also very little to no impact. So admittedly, the best thing is the nerd model and just use whatever incremental value it says. But certainly isn’t the be all tell all.

 

That’s fair. So many variables. Best you can do is make a lot of assumptions in any model like that. Then it’s a case of garbage in garbage out information.

[Spanky99]

ISO was sorely needed at DH/1B and LF, the trickle down effect happened once they signed KK and IKF it was clear they doubled down on run prevention, it is what it is. Hindsight is really a glorious thing. I for one am interested in how the rest of the season goes first though. This conversation is tiresome.

[Spanky99]

It’s impossible to quantify the impact of a couple strong bats. You go down a never ending rabbit hole of when the hits come, this pitcher throws this pitch instead of that pitch due to the situation, this pitcher gets pulled for this pitcher, etc.

 

Also, as you’re dealing with humans, how winning 3 or 4 games instead of losing them in a short period, may change approach.

 

If could have also very little to no impact. So admittedly, the best thing is the nerd model and just use whatever incremental value it says. But certainly isn’t the be all tell all.

 

Good post dumn dumn... shocking. The nerd models on all teams vary, and I'm pretty sure they also know that all metrics aren't the be all end all, but it's the best we have as fans on several platforms publicly. Ultimately it falls on the FO, but the continuous bickering and Captain Hindsight comments are nearing puke mode on full tilt.

[L54]

Spanky hindsight is the realization of something only after it has happened. Your first sentence states that ISO was clearly missing on this team heading into 2024. So by definition it is not hindsight to say wow we could’ve used some power in this lineup

[Spanky99]

Spanky hindsight is the realization of something only after it has happened. Your first sentence states that ISO was clearly missing on this team heading into 2024. So by definition it is not hindsight to say wow we could’ve used some power in this lineup

 

And from all the reports over the winter they tried to get guys with power, also wins can be gained in other areas of the game, so saying there was lots of moves they could've made is exactly that, hindsight. Also disingenuous, no one has a clue what they tried to acquire, in both FA and trade, it's weak sauce. FA was barren, and there's no doubt about that. Did Ross fail, it's sure looking like it, but there's plenty of baseball left.

[L54]

And from all the reports over the winter they tried to get guys with power, also wins can be gained in other areas of the game, so saying there was lots of moves they could've made is exactly that, hindsight. Also disingenuous, no one has a clue what they tried to acquire, in both FA and trade, it's weak sauce. FA was barren, and there's no doubt about that. Did Ross fail, it's sure looking like it, but there's plenty of baseball left.

 

Of course there’s other ways to add wins

 

But you said they needed ISO, doubled down on run prevention and it didn’t work. But we can only see that in hindsight which isn’t true at all

 

No we don’t know what and who they offered, but what we do know is they ended up with a bunch of defense first players when they needed guys who can hit, in the simplest terms

[Spanky99]

Of course there’s other ways to add wins

 

But you said they needed ISO, doubled down on run prevention and it didn’t work. But we can only see that in hindsight which isn’t true at all

 

No we don’t know what and who they offered, but what we do know is they ended up with a bunch of defense first players when they needed guys who can hit, in the simplest terms

 

What does what I said about ISO have to do what the FO did? When I'm bringing up hindsight it's about the snark and cherry picked players SOME POSTERS seem to do on a near daily basis. No one knows what they tried, or what players told them to go piss up a rope, it's a fool's errand. The discussion is old hat, and lame.

[Brownie19]

Before the off season began I would have bet on the Jays being the ones to trade for O’Neill. Pre-2023 Atkins would have. Post 2023 Atkins thinks anyone with a K% over 20 is bad so probably didn’t even consider it.

 

Branden Belt

[connorp]

And from all the reports over the winter they tried to get guys with power, also wins can be gained in other areas of the game, so saying there was lots of moves they could've made is exactly that, hindsight. Also disingenuous, no one has a clue what they tried to acquire, in both FA and trade, it's weak sauce. FA was barren, and there's no doubt about that. Did Ross fail, it's sure looking like it, but there's plenty of baseball left.

 

Going to need receipts on those reports. Teo was clearly a courtesy call checking in and nothing more. What else you got?

[Terminator]

It might be dumb but it’s also dumb to claim there was nothing that could have been done

 

You guys keep repeating this but you are cutting off the key point to help your argument.

 

No one says "nothing could have been done". The point is that "nothing could have been done to fix the offense that would compare to the core guys returning to form." And it's still so obviously true. If Vlad was hitting tanks, Bo was performing, Kirk and Springer were hitting, etc. that would be something like 6+ WAR added to our season right now.

 

Outbidding the Dodgers for Teoscar would have added about 2 WAR and that's assuming he would even consider coming back after we just traded his ass out of town. Good luck prying him away from the Dodgers but that would probably be impossible. Same goes with other FAs; I know the Jays checked in on Pederson but he wanted the West Coast. And even so, we could have just had Horwitz up from the beginning and there probably wouldn't be a huge difference.

[Laika]

- Teoscar wanted Toronto to outbid the Dodgers

- Candelario cost $45M

- Bellinger and Chapman were holding out for six figures

- JDM was holding out for a huge AAV

- Pederson wanted the west coast

- Ohtani used us

- Soler and Gurriel commanded uncomfortable money

- Hoskins commanded multiple years coming off major surgery (and has been replacement level)

- Boston sniped us for O'Neill

 

What was a girl to do other than reluctantly sign Justin Turner, Izzy Falaffle, and drunk dial KK one more time?

[Laika]

Nothing could have been done other than what Atkins actually did.

 

I mean that the end result was more destiny than anything else. Free will is an illusion. The decisions made this offseason were more or less pre-ordained, pre-determined by context and circumstance and common sense and the choices the Blue Jays have made over the last few years. And more remotely, in some respects, Atkins' parents put this all in motion since they are the ones who formed his personality. But even his hiring was inevitable. Mark Shapiro was always going to be the President of the Blue Jays. He was always going to hire Ross. These things were meant to be.

 

We exist at the tail end of an unimaginably complex Rube Goldberg machine, which God himself triggered into motion.

 

Our suffering is unavoidable and intentional and mechanical.

 

There is no reason to be upset.

[Brownie19]

I find it hilarious that short term FA signings are now one of the top complaints of this FO. That's literally been one of the things that Atkins has consistently gotten right in his time in Toronto. Free agency signings are a crapshoot at best and Atkins has a pretty damn good track record - but as soon as he misses on a few, he's s*** on by fans for not being perfect.

 

Drafting, player development - s*** on that all you want. It's the reason there's was so much pressure on them to "hit" in the FA market the last couple of years. But the Jays have been in the playoffs in 3 of the past 4 years (should have been 4 for 4) on the back of Atkin's ability to bring in quality free agents (and for the team to fix them and/or get the most out of them).

Edited June 18, 2024 by Brownie19

[L54]

You guys keep repeating this but you are cutting off the key point to help your argument.

 

No one says "nothing could have been done". The point is that "nothing could have been done to fix the offense that would compare to the core guys returning to form." And it's still so obviously true. If Vlad was hitting tanks, Bo was performing, Kirk and Springer were hitting, etc. that would be something like 6+ WAR added to our season right now.

 

Outbidding the Dodgers for Teoscar would have added about 2 WAR and that's assuming he would even consider coming back after we just traded his ass out of town. Good luck prying him away from the Dodgers but that would probably be impossible. Same goes with other FAs; I know the Jays checked in on Pederson but he wanted the West Coast. And even so, we could have just had Horwitz up from the beginning and there probably wouldn't be a huge difference.

 

But the answer wasn’t doubling down on KK and the fielding % championships after it didn’t work the first time

[Spanky99]

Going to need receipts on those reports. Teo was clearly a courtesy call checking in and nothing more. What else you got?

 

SN.ca... Shi Davidi/Arden Zwelling/Ben Nicholson-Smith/Hazel Mae... was also discussed on a ST telecast, I've shared this info a few times back in March. Do your own research asshat, that's your go to right? Teo wanted term from the Jays.

[Terminator]

But the answer wasn’t doubling down on KK and the fielding % championships after it didn’t work the first time

 

You guys were definitely right about bringing KK back

 

I thought it could turn out okay as I think accumulating a bunch of WAR (2.8 fWAR and 3.8 bWAR last year) would work no matter where it comes from (i.e. a 2 WAR glove first guy > 1.5 WAR offense guy) but his bat has just cratered and I should have seen it coming given his last couple of years in Tampa

 

He's still got some use as a bench player though so that problem could be solved if they'd just play him a lot less but that signing ain't looking so hot

[glory]

What was a girl to do other than reluctantly sign Justin Turner, Izzy Falaffle, and drunk dial KK one more time?

 

This is what bothers me more than the "could have signed/traded for X instead" arguments. If the FA market sucked, and the trade market couldn't lead to anything useful, then why spend $40m on IKF, Turner, KK, and Vogelbach? Those signings were a big reason why they are a tax paying team this season (barring a trade deadline sell off). Like, the Yankees are spending more than ownership wants, but a big part of that is bringing Judge back, signing Rodon, trading for Soto, etc. They are spending big because they aimed as high as possible. What Atkins did was borderline irresponsible given the penalties that come with going over the CBT. He could have started the season with Barger/Clement at 3B, Horowitz (+ platoon buddy) at DH, and Tommy Pham or equivalent in LF, and the team would be no better or worse off, except younger and well below the tax. That's not hindsight. KK is 34 coming off an offensive season he wasn't going to duplicate, and Turner is 100 coming off a season that had red flags all over it. IKF is what he is. Vogelbach probably helped the Toronto food industry in the 2 months he was around, but a fat DH who can't do anything except hit RHP being used as a once a week bench player made no sense.