The Ship is Sinking

[Masterbather]

Man, I obviously never believed in this current core as a championship team, but I didn't think things would go off the rails like this.

 

We're cursed this year. I guess we were due considering how lucky we've been health-wise but between injuries and just the wheels coming off of certain players, we're f***ing toast. Slowly turning into a nightmare scenario.

[L54]

Man, I obviously never believed in this current core as a championship team, but I didn't think things would go off the rails like this.

 

We're cursed this year. I guess we were due considering how lucky we've been health-wise but between injuries and just the wheels coming off of certain players, we're f***ing toast. Slowly turning into a nightmare scenario.

 

At this point every loss is a good thing. Then hopefully they can hit on their first rounder

[BigCecil]

One sure LOOKS more athletic but yes the results are oddly similar

 

Moreno 2024 .230/.313/.346

wOBA .293

 

He is more athletic. 50th percentile speed and 90th percentile pop time etc.

 

The only important thing Kirk does better at this point is blocking. If we had a choice, which we obviously don't, there are still a lot of good reasons to take Moreno over Kirk at this point in their careers, even though Moreno's ISO to this point is disappointing. Kirk 0.7 WAR, Moreno 1.1 and Varsho 1.7 in '24 None of them are wildly impressive. Varsho is back to his career wRC+

[max silver]

He is more athletic. 50th percentile speed and 90th percentile pop time etc.

 

The only important thing Kirk does better at this point is blocking. If we had a choice, which we obviously don't, there are still a lot of good reasons to take Moreno over Kirk at this point in their careers, even though Moreno's ISO to this point is disappointing. Kirk 0.7 WAR, Moreno 1.1 and Varsho 1.7 in '24 None of them are wildly impressive. Varsho is back to his career wRC+

 

Kirk is a far better blocker and framer. Unless you think that framing is somehow not important for some reason that's two key defensive skills where Kirk is far more effective, and Kirk even has really solid throwing metrics this season as well so he's closed the gap in nailing baserunners this season as well. It's a shame that the bat has gone backwards but he's shown improvements in his batted ball metrics that have yet to materialize into more hits, and he's arguably the best overall defender behind the plate as well. I still hope he can regain a bit of offensive output in the future, whether it's this season or in the future with a new coaching staff.

[BigCecil]

Kirk is a far better blocker and framer. Unless you think that framing is somehow not important for some reason that's two key defensive skills where Kirk is far more effective, and Kirk even has really solid throwing metrics this season as well so he's closed the gap in nailing baserunners this season as well. It's a shame that the bat has gone backwards but he's shown improvements in his batted ball metrics that have yet to materialize into more hits, and he's arguably the best overall defender behind the plate as well. I still hope he can regain a bit of offensive output in the future, whether it's this season or in the future with a new coaching staff.

 

I said blocking. Moreno is an 80th percentile framer this season. Personally I hate calling this a “skill” but in that area he has improved a lot. “Far better” is an over statement. Blocking you are correct which is huge. Both has been good at nailing base runners.

[max silver]

I said blocking. Moreno is an 80th percentile framer this season. Personally I hate calling this a “skill” but in that area he has improved a lot. “Far better” is an over statement. Blocking you are correct which is huge

 

Kirk has saved 4 runs in 1053 pitches (3.8 runs per 1000 pitches). Moreno has saved 2 runs in 1565 pitches (1.28 runs per 100 pitches). Kirk is accumulating framing runs at nearly3 times the speed of Moreno. That feels far better to me, but maybe your standards are different.

[BigCecil]

Kirk has saved 4 runs in 1053 pitches (3.8 runs per 1000 pitches). Moreno has saved 2 runs in 1565 pitches (1.28 runs per 100 pitches). Kirk is accumulating framing runs at nearly3 times the speed of Moreno. That feels far better to me, but maybe your standards are different.

 

lol. Im no expert on framing. I’m looking forward to robo ump appeals. I am not sure how baseball savant correlates the stats. Moreno is 80th percentile and Kirk is 88th. I just assume they have a defensible rationale.

[mikepelfrey]

Varsho is more valuable as a center fielder since the glove is more important on the defensive spectrum as Bill James made clear. Left field is primarily an offensive position and Varsho is poor offensively. Most of his WAR is derived from his defense. Which if you consider the Jays issue right now is a lack of consistency on offense, I still can’t see why everyone sees Varsho as all that valuable.

 

His wRC pegs him as below average, obp at .282 is well below average. To those who see him as a solution remember his salary is about to go up through arbitration, which only exacerbates his deficiencies.

[mikepelfrey]

Kirk has saved 4 runs in 1053 pitches (3.8 runs per 1000 pitches). Moreno has saved 2 runs in 1565 pitches (1.28 runs per 100 pitches). Kirk is accumulating framing runs at nearly3 times the speed of Moreno. That feels far better to me, but maybe your standards are different.

 

I’m not sold on framing being the be all end all of a catchers importance

 

If you look at the jays ERA in 2023 which was 3.71 vs their ERA in 2024 which is 4.31, how much of that is on a catcher’s ability to actually call a game? I don’t have the Knowledge necessary to actually determine that, but I’d think common sense would indicate that, that particular factor would far outweigh the perceived value of framing.

 

I grew up watching Jerry Grote with the Mets, he never hit much and didn’t garner headlines, but Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Nolan Ryan, and Gil Hodges all raved about him and his ability to call a game and handle a pitching staff. And while that may be admittedly anecdotal, to me it shaped the way I view catchers.

 

This is not to say Kirk and Jansen are to blame for the reduced effectiveness of the Jays pitching staff this year. I think the pitchers themselves are likely more responsible than the catchers, but game calling is a factor, how much is it, who knows. But if I had to bet my life on one or the other, I’d put my money on game calling.

Edited July 1, 2024 by mikepelfrey

[jaysblue]

Yeah Varsho should be in CF and the Jays should have targeted a bat with pop to put in LF, which I think a majority of posters on here preferred. Bringing back KK in an everyday role was a mistake.

[BigCecil]

Varsho is more valuable as a center fielder since the glove is more important on the defensive spectrum as Bill James made clear. Left field is primarily an offensive position and Varsho is poor offensively. Most of his WAR is derived from his defense. Which if you consider the Jays issue right now is a lack of consistency on offense, I still can’t see why everyone sees Varsho as all that valuable.

 

His wRC pegs him as below average, obp at .282 is well below average. To those who see him as a solution remember his salary is about to go up through arbitration, which only exacerbates his deficiencies.

 

His Hard Hit% (11th percentile) and Avg EV (2nd percentile) etc are brutal. His xSLG is 1st percentile.

 

A wRC+ of 94. He runs into some balls. A 28 year old with 1900 PAs who should be in CF. We know what he is by now. His tools are he is an elite defender who runs into some. He is a valuable player. I doubt we will see a 4.4 WAR season again from him or close to it.

[Auldphartt]

There are many things that make up good catching. Framing and pitch sequencing are two of the most important. Blocking balls in the dirt and throwing out runners are also important.

 

A catcher whose framing turns borderline pitches into strikes results in pitchers throwing fewer pitches out over the plate. Framing is a subtle art. A good framer like Kirk barely moves his glove and his circular framing is just enough to turn balls into called strikes. A poor framer like Jansen uses a sweeping motion that fools no one and might even annoy the umpires into thinking he's trying to con them, resulting in pitches in the strike zone being called balls.

 

In today's game, there's usually a clearly developed plan based on anal-ysis of the starting pitcher and the opponent's lineup. Where the thinking and skill are required is when things don't go according to plan. Maybe a pitcher is having control problems with a certain pitch. Maybe an opponent has figured out what you're trying to do and is making adjustments. Altering your plan on the go can be very important. A quick-minded intelligent catcher like Kirk has a distinct advantage in this regard.

 

Luckily since Jansen has improved his blocking this year, both our catchers are among the best. Kirk has always been a top blocker. Now we have two. Someone pointed out to me at one game that maybe one reason for Jansen's increased number of blocked pitches this year is that some of them should have been caught in the first place. No matter. Better to let the ball hit the ground and block it than mess up trying to catch it and letting it go to the backstop for a passed ball.

 

Throwing on the other hand shows a great discrepancy between our two catchers. Kirk is faster on the transfer and much more accurate than Jansen. Jansen almost always throws too high resulting in the infielders having to sweep the glove down while Kirk specializes in accurate throws at shoetop level just before the runner reaches the bag. No contest.

 

As far as the intangibles are concerned, Kirk exudes an air of calm leadership while Jansen seems more concerned with his camera image. I get the distinct impression that many veteran pitchers are annoyed with Jansen's showboating. You can see the obvious appreciation from them for what Kirk brings to the game.

 

Catching is too important a position to be too concerned about offense but even there Kirk's superiority stands out. Jansen seems to treat every at-bat as a home run derby, swinging wildly trying to pull the ball to left field, resulting in far too many pop flies and strikeouts. He seems incapable of shortening his swing and poking the ball through the hole into right field with a runner on first base. His lame excuse is that he's doing it intentionally to try to play into his "strength". Lawl. Kirk, the former Silver Slugger hits to all fields and drives in runs. It's interesting to note that with fewer games played and fewer plate appearances this year, Kirk has more RBIs than Jansen. The only thing that Jansen does better is base running.

 

The only time Jansen should catch 2 games in a row is if Kirk is injured.

[John_Havok]

Somewhere, there are clouds that need to get yelled at....

[Carlos Danger]

Somewhere, there are clouds that need to get yelled at....

 

Speaking of which, is the roof open today? I was at a Canada day game with the roof closed one year and it was depressing.

[John_Havok]

Speaking of which, is the roof open today? I was at a Canada day game with the roof closed one year and it was depressing.

 

Roof is open

[AMS528]

1.5 games up on the Angels. Couple of bad days and they may manage to be behind the Angels of all teams.

 

Astros and Rays both have looked better.

 

The worse we look the more likely we'll get some actual moves happening so it's for the best that we fall further and further behind. No false hope.

[Terminator]

1.5 games up on the Angels.

 

That is f***ed

[mikepelfrey]

1.5 games up on the Angels. Couple of bad days and they may manage to be behind the Angels of all teams.

 

Astros and Rays both have looked better.

 

The worse we look the more likely we'll get some actual moves happening so it's for the best that we fall further and further behind. No false hope.

that may be true, but by the same token pitchers like Kikuchi and Gausman and Bassitt are losing perceived value. It’s 6 of one, a half dozen of the other. All for a draft pick who we won’t see for 5 to 6 years if he makes it.

 

All in all the questions I have all revolve around are if the guys making the decisions (Shatkins) are qualified to be making them?

 

That’s why the trade for Varsho matters, was the perceived Value of Moreno at the time of the actual trade, realized? Most here think it wasn’t. What Moreno does or doesn’t do in the future isn’t material any longer because he’s gone. It’s a sunk cost. But it is valuable as a measure of how the powers that be decision making process, will affect the team going forward.

 

We have 9 years of data to analyze on their draft acumen or lack thereof, I leave it to you to decide whether that’s good or bad.

[Olerud363]

that may be true, but by the same token pitchers like Kikuchi and Gausman and Bassitt are losing perceived value. It’s 6 of one, a half dozen of the other. All for a draft pick who we won’t see for 5 to 6 years if he makes it.

 

Bo made it in 3 years basically from the day he was drafted. If it works even a high school player will take 3 years to make it a good college player 2 or less.

 

Impact talent shows it early and makes it fast, and the idea of getting a better draft position is to get not only a better player but one that can get here quicker.

 

It's the Jays though, they'll choose the wrong guy and it will take 6 years for them to get to Buffalo, and by the time they get here they will be worried about a mortgage, 3 kids and almost past prime.

[MikeM3]

We're 1.5 gb out of a top 3 pick. If you're not rooting for our pitchers to develop blisters or vladdy to stub a toe, you're a bad fan

[Laika]

fire sale

 

even if they don't sell the Gausman, Berrios, Vlad, Bo group maybe we get a lucky Gausman dead arm IL tiny. Broken toe for Vlad. Sprained hair for Bo.

[L54]

We're 1.5 gb out of a top 3 pick. If you're not rooting for our pitchers to develop blisters or vladdy to stub a toe, you're a bad fan

 

Lots of bad fans still

[Terminator]

The problem with tanking is that it is good in theory, but it carries some really nasty stuff along with it that will affect our future just as much, if not more, then picking a few spots higher.

 

-Vlad goes back to his slap hitting ways

-Bo continues to suck

-Gausman fails to get back on track

-The Buffalo Boys suck

-None of the fringe relievers turn into reliable pieces for next year

-Springer goes back to solidifying himself as the worst player in baseball

[Laika]

The problem with tanking is that it is good in theory, but it carries some really nasty stuff along with it that will affect our future just as much, if not more, then picking a few spots higher.

 

-Vlad goes back to his slap hitting ways

-Bo continues to suck

-Gausman fails to get back on track

-The Buffalo Boys suck

-None of the fringe relievers turn into reliable pieces for next year

-Springer goes back to solidifying himself as the worst player in baseball

 

Yeah but we can thread the needle and have the best of all worlds if all of those guys figure it out and look awesome but then have season ending oblique strains

[L54]

The problem with tanking is that it is good in theory, but it carries some really nasty stuff along with it that will affect our future just as much, if not more, then picking a few spots higher.

 

-Vlad goes back to his slap hitting ways

-Bo continues to suck

-Gausman fails to get back on track

-The Buffalo Boys suck

-None of the fringe relievers turn into reliable pieces for next year

-Springer goes back to solidifying himself as the worst player in baseball

 

Doesn’t even have to be a tank, just cheer for the other team

 

With the bullpen the way it is I think we have a chance to blow the lead any given night

[Jimcanuck]

Doesn’t even have to be a tank, just cheer for the other team

 

With the bullpen the way it is I think we have a chance to blow the lead any given night

 

Three lefties coming in? No problem, let's bring in a righty reliever

[Laika]

Should have kept Mayza around to help with the tank tbh

 

"we are very confident that the talent is there for Tim Mayza to turn it around" - Ross Atkins

[Spanky99]

Should have kept Mayza around to help with the tank tbh

 

"we are very confident that the talent is there for Tim Mayza to turn it around" - Ross Atkins

 

Hah!

[Jonn]

The problem with tanking is that it is good in theory, but it carries some really nasty stuff along with it that will affect our future just as much, if not more, then picking a few spots higher.

 

-Vlad goes back to his slap hitting ways

-Bo continues to suck

-Gausman fails to get back on track

-The Buffalo Boys suck

-None of the fringe relievers turn into reliable pieces for next year

-Springer goes back to solidifying himself as the worst player in baseball

 

I don't think the Jays need to actively try to tank. This team sucks all on its own and once you start selling off some stuff it will be even easier to suck.

[L54]

Three lefties coming in? No problem, let's bring in a righty reliever

 

Nate Pearson you’re up