Around Baseball 2024

[wilko]

 

[Dick_Pole]

People so desperate for the Jays to do anything that Hernandez for 3/$65M is a unanimous no-brainer here. Short memories about why he was traded for an RP and why people actually liked the trade at the time. It's true though that the Jays are constructed very differently where they can probably absorb his liabilities while desperately needing his strengths.

[Dick_Pole]

The jays wasted them with poor organizational philosophy, coaching and execution. One or two players being inconsistent or having down years and I will blame it on the players. When it is as many players as the Jays have had show these declines and inconsistencies I'm blaming the org.

 

When I say Atkins is a beta, I don't just mean how he is perceived by free agents or other GMs. Internal organizational disarray is the biggest sign and biggest hurdle to the Jays being a success. People brought up Guerrero's s***** baserunning and his refusal to change. That is on a nerd like Atkins who is too cowardly to set the cultural standard where s*** like that isn't tolerated. We all know his foot speed is his foot speed. Can't do much with that. The boneheadedness is unacceptable. Particularly with a guy who thinks he's worth $400 million or whatever.

[Brownie19]

Yeah if all Teo is looking for is 3 years between $70-75m, then the Jays should be all over that. The years mitigate a lot of the decline risk, and the AAV is higher due to the lack of years, which is a fair trade off. My guess is the rumor is BS and he’s probably looking for a 4th year.

 

No way - just be irrationally angry out stupid GM hasn't signed him yet. That's what real fans do.

[Orgfiller]

Need a younger, left handed, Justin Turner. I wonder what Pittsburgh would want for Spencer Horwitz. I guess this should have been formulated as part of a three player trade, but maybe Jays didn't even know Horwitz was going to Pittsburgh? Maybe Jays had a thought they'd sign another DH.

 

Wagner and Loperfido for Howritz? Pittsburgh gets two players with more defensive versatility and similar ceiling, Jays get a bat that has more of a track record, a DH for 2025, and possible Vlad replacement for 2026.

 

Wagner basically projects to be Spencer Horwitz, a year younger, with better exit velos and a bunch of MiLB options.

[Orgfiller]

 

If this is the case then half the league is already offering him this price and he's holding out for a desperate team looking for power (e.g. Toronto Blue Jays) to offer him a 4th of 5th year. Something like 4/90 or 5/100-110 to keep the tax hit AAV low since apparently that's what every team cares about these days.

 

The Dodgers are probably offering "4/100" with deferrals that make it closer to a 4/80 deal and Teoscar is being smart to hold out for more present value money.

[Olerud363]

Wagner basically projects to be Spencer Horwitz, a year younger, with better exit velos and a bunch of MiLB options.

 

 

That's pretty reasonable. One thing I do wonder is how meaningful Horwitz 400 or so MLB ABs are. My thinking was that Horwitz is safer because of 400 MLB abs and more triple a at bats so get Spencer back so the Jays have a safer option while the Pirates have more upside and 2 cracks at the random player lottery.

 

According to Steamer, Wagner and Horwitz are projected to be similar though.

 

However do people believe that? Like related the Roden/Teoscar comparison. Do people believe their projections are similar? People on the board seem to value MLB experience way more than the projection systems do.

[Olerud363]

I would love to see some data on reliability and the variance of outcome for minor league players projected to big league stats. At the very least, when you run those statistical models, Roden must have a much wider array of possible outcomes (both very positive and very negative) than someone like Teo who has a very established mlb track record.

 

I believe in quant supported decisions, but there is no way in hell that I'm going with Roden over Teoscar when I absolutely need 2 WAR to eek into the playoffs. That's not saying we'll eek into the playoffs, but that's what Atkins is aiming for.

 

The counter point is IF the mean projection for Roden is true (2 WAR) but variance is higher, Roden's ceiling is higher and if Jays are projected for like 83 wins or something, they actually are better off with the variance.

 

I say IF projection for Roden is true.... however why wouldn't it be? Why would the guys that make projection systems not adjust somehow if projections don't work for minor players or certain types of players.

[Stangstag]

Yeah, the Jays "wasted" one of Guerrero's prime years when he put up 1.3 WAR, and then after they made the playoffs despite that he ended their playoffs getting picked off 2nd base as the trail runner.

 

Then last year they "wasted" one of Bo's prime years when he amassed 0.3 WAR.

 

They are decent, and sometimes even great players, but if that's your "core" to build around, you're f***ed before you even get started.

 

Anybody stop to think that maybe THAT'S why they haven't been extended past their arb years?

 

Exactly. Unfortunately Bo and Vlad haven’t shown that they are cornerstone franchise players to build a team around.

 

They are more Luis Robert than Fernando Tatis.

[Jimcanuck]

The Dodgers are probably offering "4/100" with deferrals that make it closer to a 4/80 deal and Teoscar is being smart to hold out for more present value money.

 

I dunno. If the Dodgers wanted him back, he would be signed already. Suspect the blue is gonna roll with their many in house options.

[BatFlip]

The counter point is IF the mean projection for Roden is true (2 WAR) but variance is higher, Roden's ceiling is higher and if Jays are projected for like 83 wins or something, they actually are better off with the variance.

 

I say IF projection for Roden is true.... however why wouldn't it be? Why would the guys that make projection systems not adjust somehow if projections don't work for minor players or certain types of players.

 

 

That's a fair counter point. However, the Jays still have $$ to spend.

 

So rather than take a high risk bet on a guy who might make or break their season depending on his high variance outcomes, the obvious (and safe play) is to bring in a guy like Teo who has a much higher likelihood of materially contributing to the team. If Roden ends up catching fire, there will no doubt be injury opportunities (Springer?) and other ways to get his bat into the lineup and the team will still benefit. If Roden ends up being sub replacement level player his first year in the bigs, it won't materially impact the team's chances, and he obviously has options.

[jaysblue]

That is a great question - why is he unsigned still? And why didn't anyone commit to him for 3 years last offseason? Guys can't s*** all over our GM all they want, but if this report is true (it's probably not - not sure why we believe any report we hear), then it would certainly appear that several teams remain concerned about something with Teo...

 

Ugh these kind of posts are so cringe!

[glory]

[jaysblue]

 

Bellinger will hit 35 HR's next season.

[Brownie19]

https://thescore.com/mlb/news/3161794

 

Interesting as article on pitching injuries.

[Terminator]

Bellinger will hit 35 HR's next season.

 

Damn, his expected home runs last year jumps to 24 in Yankee Stadium when he only had 18 in real life.

[BTS]

That probably takes Suzuki off the board too as far as trades go. Atkins really needs to land one of the FA OFs.

[max silver]

Ugh these kind of posts are so cringe!

 

Why? He's simply pointing out that Teoscar seemingly hasn't been able to receive his asking price from any of the league's 30 General managers at this point. It's not a statement that should get your panties in a knot.

[leaffie]

A few days ago on sirius one of the talking heads said the first team that offered Teo four years would get him.

[Brownie19]

Ugh these kind of posts are so cringe!

 

Here's an idea, instead of trying to insult me, why not explain to my why I'm wrong?

 

I look at the actions. Nobody wanted to sign him long term last year and if these reports are true (which they probably aren't), nobody has given into his seemingly reasonable request of 3 years / $75M this year. Why is that? Are all these GM's stupid?

[G-Snarls]

[Stangstag]

Damn, his expected home runs last year jumps to 24 in Yankee Stadium when he only had 18 in real life.

 

Yankees know exactly who to target to get + value from the short porch

[Carlos Danger]

Cody Poteet is a viable back end SP.

[Stangstag]

 

Wtf?? Thats a nothing return

[Carlos Danger]

Wtf?? Thats a nothing return

 

Contract dump.

[max silver]

Cody Poteet is a viable back end SP.

 

How do you figure? His highest innings total since 2019 is 78.

[G-Snarls]

Contract dump.

 

And the Cubs are even sending $

 

Goddammit

[Brownie19]

Wtf?? Thats a nothing return

 

It really is - 100% salary dump.

 

Interesting the Yanks want him for 2 years $50M +/- instead of paying Teo to the 3 year $75M deal (that our stupid GM won't offer him). All while the Cubs see him having absolutely no value (or negative value) at 2 years $50M.

 

As sad as it is, I think there's a possibility the Jays ought to have given the Cubs "a little" more to get Bellinger. His ceiling may still be higher than Teo (it's certainly higher than Santander) and I just don't think anyone else is going to take our money...

[Brownie19]

And the Cubs are even sending $

 

Goddammit

 

Passan's says it's only $5M.

 

ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports the Yankees are acquiring first baseman Cody Bellinger from the Cubs for right-hander Cody Poteet.

ESPN’s Jesse Rogers adds that New York is absorbing all but $5 million of the $52.5 million left on the final two years of Bellinger’s existing deal, which also includes an opt-out following the 2025 season.

[BatFlip]

It really is - 100% salary dump.

 

Interesting the Yanks want him for 2 years $50M +/- instead of paying Teo to the 3 year $75M deal (that our stupid GM won't offer him). All while the Cubs see him having absolutely no value (or negative value) at 2 years $50M.

 

As sad as it is, I think there's a possibility the Jays ought to have given the Cubs "a little" more to get Bellinger. His ceiling may still be higher than Teo (it's certainly higher than Santander) and I just don't think anyone else is going to take our money...

 

 

I wouldn't have minded picking up Bellinger's contract given some of the options out there, but didn't he have a no-trade clause? Maybe I'm remembering wrong.