Around Baseball 2024

[L54]

Lmao they signed the Japanese Wade Miley

[Laika]

When Grayson gets hurt in spring their rotation will be

 

Eflin

Kremer

Sugano

Suarez

Rogers

 

L.O.L.

 

Also, isn't the LF fence coming in?

[Pendleton]

Lmao they signed the Japanese Wade Miley

 

I get more of a Japanese Chris Bassitt vibe

 

Here's a look at Sugano's repertoire, per available NPB data for 2024:

 

4-seam fastball -- 26% usage / 92 mph

Cutter -- 20% usage / 87 mph

Slider -- 20% usage / 82 mph

Splitter -- 17% usage / 86 mph

Sinker -- 9% usage / 91 mph

Curveball -- 8% usage / 77 mph

 

Maybe not quite Bassitt unless you swap the 4 seamer and sinker usage. But pretty much similar velocity and a similar 'kitchen sink meant to keep you on your toes enough to induce soft contact' approach

[L54]

I get more of a Japanese Chris Bassitt vibe

 

Here's a look at Sugano's repertoire, per available NPB data for 2024:

 

4-seam fastball -- 26% usage / 92 mph

Cutter -- 20% usage / 87 mph

Slider -- 20% usage / 82 mph

Splitter -- 17% usage / 86 mph

Sinker -- 9% usage / 91 mph

Curveball -- 8% usage / 77 mph

 

Maybe not quite Bassitt unless you swap the 4 seamer and sinker usage. But pretty much similar velocity and a similar 'kitchen sink meant to keep you on your toes enough to induce soft contact' approach

 

I was just thinking low K’s low walks but that’s a good comp

 

Probably more Miles Mikolas than Wade Miley

[jaysblue]

Im so glad the Orioles are continuing to fumble taking the next step and wasting prime years of Gunnar/Rutsch. And instead of just signing free agents, they’re making trades like the Burnes trade which is going to slowly deplete the farm if they continue on.

 

They’re like, 1 step away from being a legit super-team but they’re just refusing to sign any legit top-tier free agents to address the rotation.

 

I'm probably going to get tarred and feathered for saying this, but can't you say the same thing about the Jays wasting prime years of Vladdy/Bo/Gausman etc. over the last couple of years?

 

I agree though the Orioles should be adding some elite arms to their rotation. They need more to go with Grayson, Kramer, and Eflin. Another #1-2 starter would definitely help them take that next step. Gonna be tough to replace Burnes unless they spend money.

[Spanky__99]

Im so glad the Orioles are continuing to fumble taking the next step and wasting prime years of Gunnar/Rutsch. And instead of just signing free agents, they’re making trades like the Burnes trade which is going to slowly deplete the farm if they continue on.

 

They’re like, 1 step away from being a legit super-team but they’re just refusing to sign any legit top-tier free agents to address the rotation.

 

I don't seriously get what Elias is doing.

[Stangstag]

I'm probably going to get tarred and feathered for saying this, but can't you say the same thing about the Jays wasting prime years of Vladdy/Bo/Gausman etc. over the last couple of years?

 

I agree though the Orioles should be adding some elite arms to their rotation. They need more to go with Grayson, Kramer, and Eflin. Another #1-2 starter would definitely help them take that next step. Gonna be tough to replace Burnes unless they spend money.

 

How can you argue the Jays didn’t try to surround the core with respectable/all-star vets??

 

Ryu, Springer, Gausman, Kikuchi, Bassitt, and they were in/finalists for Cole, Ohtani, and Soto. Can’t force guys to take money if they don’t want to.

 

The Jays just aren’t as good as drafting/developing as the current Os, and they never tanked like the Os did to get those top picks. The Jays “core” was never as good as the Os current core.

[Stangstag]

We definitely wasted the Bo/Vlad era, but its not for lack of trying.

 

The Os for whatever f***ing reason refuse to take the final step. They should be signing guys like Kikuchi, Snell, Burns, etc.

Otherwise they’re just willfully wasting years with their core.

[Jays24]

We should be happy with Baltimore f***ing up. Could you imagine if they got this right and what it would mean for us going forward? Lol

[Stangstag]

I don't seriously get what Elias is doing.

 

Must be maddening as an Orioles fan

[glory]

How can you argue the Jays didn’t try to surround the core with respectable/all-star vets??

 

Ryu, Springer, Gausman, Kikuchi, Bassitt, and they were in/finalists for Cole, Ohtani, and Soto. Can’t force guys to take money if they don’t want to.

 

The Jays just aren’t as good as drafting/developing as the current Os, and they never tanked like the Os did to get those top picks. The Jays “core” was never as good as the Os current core.

 

Hell the Jays spending in free agency (and trade) is the only reason the team was as good as it was.

[Spanky__99]

I'm probably going to get tarred and feathered for saying this, but can't you say the same thing about the Jays wasting prime years of Vladdy/Bo/Gausman etc. over the last couple of years?

 

I agree though the Orioles should be adding some elite arms to their rotation. They need more to go with Grayson, Kramer, and Eflin. Another #1-2 starter would definitely help them take that next step. Gonna be tough to replace Burnes unless they spend money.

 

Wasting, seriously? lol... it didn't work out, sure. But, wasting is absurd. Stop it slim, we all know. Now regurgitate your s***.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Yeah, the Jays "wasted" one of Guerrero's prime years when he put up 1.3 WAR, and then after they made the playoffs despite that he ended their playoffs getting picked off 2nd base as the trail runner.

 

Then last year they "wasted" one of Bo's prime years when he amassed 0.3 WAR.

 

They are decent, and sometimes even great players, but if that's your "core" to build around, you're f***ed before you even get started.

 

Anybody stop to think that maybe THAT'S why they haven't been extended past their arb years?

[G-Snarls]

[G-Snarls]

I'm kinda shocked if no one has offered him that yet

[Spanky__99]

Yeah, the Jays "wasted" one of Guerrero's prime years when he put up 1.3 WAR, and then after they made the playoffs despite that he ended their playoffs getting picked off 2nd base as the trail runner.

 

Then last year they "wasted" one of Bo's prime years when he amassed 0.3 WAR.

 

They are decent, and sometimes even great players, but if that's your "core" to build around, you're f***ed before you even get started.

 

Anybody stop to think that maybe THAT'S why they haven't been extended past their arb years?

 

It surely was consistency when it comes to Bo, Vlad, not so much.

[Spanky__99]

 

Sign me up.

[Spanky__99]

I'm kinda shocked if no one has offered him that yet

 

Same. That's my train of thought.

[L54]

 

If they’re set on spending money I’d rather grow old with Teo than Santander

[BTS]

 

This is a no-brainer. Why is still unsigned? Atkins must still be brainstorming ways for this to become a possibility.

[max silver]

I'm kinda shocked if no one has offered him that yet

 

If the report is true that's surprisingly reasonable.

[Brownie19]

This is a no-brainer. Why is still unsigned? Atkins must still be brainstorming ways for this to become a possibility.

 

That is a great question - why is he unsigned still? And why didn't anyone commit to him for 3 years last offseason? Guys can't s*** all over our GM all they want, but if this report is true (it's probably not - not sure why we believe any report we hear), then it would certainly appear that several teams remain concerned about something with Teo...

[Jays24]

 

That is crazy he hasn't been offered this coming off batting cleanup for the world series champs. Like wtf lol.

 

He deserves a 4th year based on the leverage he should have but would obviously prefer a 3 year deal imo.

[Jays24]

That is a great question - why is he unsigned still? And why didn't anyone commit to him for 3 years last offseason? Guys can't s*** all over our GM all they want, but if this report is true (it's probably not - not sure why we believe any report we hear), then it would certainly appear that several teams remain concerned about something with Teo...

 

Our GM of all GMs should have first hand experience as to what Teo brings to a team. Hell, it's been painfully obvious from a fan standpoint when watching the offense become a joke after his departure.

 

Obviously it's not 100% because of him but he played a big part in why. Just suck up your pride and admit you f***ed up twice by not keeping/getting Teo and bring him back if that's close to his contract demands.

[Brownie19]

Our GM of all GMs should have first hand experience as to what Teo brings to a team. Hell, it's been painfully obvious from a fan standpoint when watching the offense become a joke after his departure.

 

Obviously it's not 100% because of him but he played a big part in why. Just suck up your pride and admit you f***ed up twice by not keeping/getting Teo and bring him back if that's close to his contract demands.

 

Paying players for what they "have done" is the kiss of death. They all do what they can to evaluate future performance. It seems clear that teams share a concern over how much longer Teo will perform at these levels.

[glory]

Yeah if all Teo is looking for is 3 years between $70-75m, then the Jays should be all over that. The years mitigate a lot of the decline risk, and the AAV is higher due to the lack of years, which is a fair trade off. My guess is the rumor is BS and he’s probably looking for a 4th year.

[Olerud363]

That is crazy he hasn't been offered this coming off batting cleanup for the world series champs. Like wtf lol.

 

He deserves a 4th year based on the leverage he should have but would obviously prefer a 3 year deal imo.

 

He is only projected for 2.5 WAR for 150 games. Alan Roden is projected for 2 WAR for 150 games.

 

How reliable and how biased are those projections ? Projection could be unreliable but not biased (meaning could be off 2 WAR but Roden is 0-4 and Teoscar 0.5 to 4.5) ?

 

Or could be more reliable to Teoscar (2-3) but less reliable for Roden (0-4). If that is the case Roden actually has a higher ceiling.

 

Or the projection could be positive bias for minor league players (meaning Roden projection is too high). I think a lot of posters would assume the projection is too high for Roden... but... if BJMB poster know that why don't the projection people?

 

Need to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the projection systems for major and minor league players to talk sensibly about Teoscar contract in view of the other options like Roden.

[BatFlip]

He is only projected for 2.5 WAR for 150 games. Alan Roden is projected for 2 WAR for 150 games.

 

How reliable and how biased are those projections ? Projection could be unreliable but not biased (meaning could be off 2 WAR but Roden is 0-4 and Teoscar 0.5 to 4.5) ?

 

Or could be more reliable to Teoscar (2-3) but less reliable for Roden (0-4). If that is the case Roden actually has a higher ceiling.

 

Or the projection could be positive bias for minor league players (meaning Roden projection is too high). I think a lot of posters would assume the projection is too high for Roden... but... if BJMB poster know that why don't the projection people?

 

Need to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the projection systems for major and minor league players to talk sensibly about Teoscar contract in view of the other options like Roden.

 

 

I would love to see some data on reliability and the variance of outcome for minor league players projected to big league stats. At the very least, when you run those statistical models, Roden must have a much wider array of possible outcomes (both very positive and very negative) than someone like Teo who has a very established mlb track record.

 

I believe in quant supported decisions, but there is no way in hell that I'm going with Roden over Teoscar when I absolutely need 2 WAR to eek into the playoffs. That's not saying we'll eek into the playoffs, but that's what Atkins is aiming for.

[mphenhef]

I'm probably going to get tarred and feathered for saying this, but can't you say the same thing about the Jays wasting prime years of Vladdy/Bo/Gausman etc. over the last couple of years?

 

I agree though the Orioles should be adding some elite arms to their rotation. They need more to go with Grayson, Kramer, and Eflin. Another #1-2 starter would definitely help them take that next step. Gonna be tough to replace Burnes unless they spend money.

 

The jays wasted them with poor organizational philosophy, coaching and execution. One or two players being inconsistent or having down years and I will blame it on the players. When it is as many players as the Jays have had show these declines and inconsistencies I'm blaming the org.

[mphenhef]

This seems incredibly stupid

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/finlete-offers-fans-the-opportunity-to-acquire-a-piece-of-emmanuel-clases-mlb-salary-sponsored.html

 

This was done with some other players (and a different company) I want to say about ten years ago.

 

Heaney was the one I was thinking of and last years salary would have put their ten percent over what they paid for it. (at least when not converting to todays dollars) https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/05/list-mlb-players-agreed-fantex-deals.html