General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[glory]

Looking at statcast numbers and Schneider up to a .361 xwOBA. He really should be playing at least 5x a week at this point. I think he's one of the 4 best hitters in the lineup right now.

 

DS starting at 2B tonight. If I'm counting correctly, then this is his 8th start in the team's last 10 games. He's slowly getting a more regular role, which as you said is the right call.

[Terminator]

Biggio's playing time is surrounded on all sides with viable options at both the big league and AAA level.

 

His .424 BABIP is pumping up his .293 xwOBA to make the casuals think he's good again but it seems like the walls might be narrowing in (finally). Could our long national nightmare finally be over? Could it finally be the year he gets cut loose?

 

I will continue to pray that Ross Atkins finds the strength to do the right thing. Even if his father is a former Hall of Fame player.

Edited April 23, 2024 by Terminator

[burlingtonbandit]

Biggio's playing time is surrounded on all sides with viable options at both the big league and AAA level.

 

His .424 BABIP is pumping up his .293 xwOBA to make the casuals think he's good again but it seems like the walls might be narrowing in (finally). Could our long national nightmare finally be over? Could it finally be the year he gets cut loose?

 

I will continue to pray that Ross Atkins finds the strength to do the right thing. Even if his father is a former Hall of Fame player.

 

Is Biggio really that much of a nightmare lol? He's fine as a bench player/depth piece given he's a LHB with a lot of Righties on the team and can play 2B, 3B, RF, LF and 1B.

[gruber92]

Is Biggio really that much of a nightmare lol? He's fine as a bench player/depth piece given he's a LHB with a lot of Righties on the team and can play 2B, 3B, RF, LF and 1B.

 

He swings like a girl way too often. Biggio has no business batting anywhere in the top six. Batting ninth actually suits him well.

[Masterbather]

He swings like a girl way too often. Biggio has no business batting anywhere in the top six. Batting ninth actually suits him well.

You misogynist bastard 😡

I do like him batting ninth though. Only problem is if KK is in the lineup he needs to be betting 9th instead because he clearly is still sour from nobody wanting him in the off season and being all pouty about it.

[RobinThicc]

Springer should hit 9th lol

[Stangstag]

I haven't received my marching orders from Captain Spanky yet, but I presume that Team Not Panicking is in an official HOLD position when it comes to Vlad stocks.

 

You all can write him off if you want, but he's got a 118 wRC+ right now and if he had one hot week he'd shoot up to the 140+ range where we all want him to be.

 

Generational superstar is looking less likely, but I have a feeling that Team Not Panicking will be once again feeling good about our position in light of all this non-tender talk.

 

I really don’t think the Vladdy hate is panicking. We’re just accepting that he was extremely overrated as a prospect and therefore continues to be extremely overrated despite putting up very mediocre numbers for a 1B.

[Spanky99]

[BigCecil]

Over 682 PAs in '23 Vlad wRC+ 118

 

Over 108 PAs in '24 Vlad wRC+ 108

 

The 790 PAs sample size of mediocrity for a $20M 1B with limited D value concerning.

 

Enigma that his xwOBA is .377 over this sample.

[Olerud363]

Over 682 PAs in '23 Vlad wRC+ 118

 

Over 108 PAs in '24 Vlad wRC+ 108

 

The 790 PAs sample size of mediocrity for a $20M 1B with limited D value concerning.

 

Enigma that his xwOBA is .377 over this sample.

 

I'll have to double check but it is probably not fluke but just several things

 

1. Bad spin - for given EV and launch angle Vladdy fly balls do not go as far as other players, not sure what the exact magnitude of the effect is but I am sure I read this somewhere. Last night was an extreme example 110 EV. 30 degree launch. 395 feet (50 feet short of where it should have been). Got some weird as f*** spin on that one so extreme outlier of the effect, but maybe Vladdy fly balls go 20 feet shorter than regular fly balls.

 

2. Too many pulled ground balls - I think the formulas account for this, but not quite enough. So all the 100+ mph pulled grounder outs add up

 

3. Formulas not accounting for spray angle quite right - related to above. Basically the fly ball outs are from gap to gap, the ground ball outs are pulled to the shifted infield (second basemen still right behind second)

 

Last night was an extreme example of the typical Vladdy day.

 

0 for 5 - 6 outs produced. Chased some pitches. Crazy key error that led directly to the loss.

 

But according to expected performance given exit velocity and launch angle he was 2/5 with a homer... lol

[glory]

Over 682 PAs in '23 Vlad wRC+ 118

 

Over 108 PAs in '24 Vlad wRC+ 108

 

The 790 PAs sample size of mediocrity for a $20M 1B with limited D value concerning.

 

Enigma that his xwOBA is .377 over this sample.

 

Vlad is either going to break out on another team or this is what he is now.

[Olerud363]

Julio Rodriquez - EV 110.5 Launch angle 33 distance 435

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - EV 109.5 Launch angle 31 distance 395

 

Congratulations to the Seattle Mariners for developing a normal f***ing super star, who will be there for a generation, whos fly balls will go the predicted distance, whos exit velocities will correlate properly with performance, whos defensive value and baserunning will not be -3 WAR, and who will bring joy and happiness to generations of fans and have his likeness on many bus adds in the Seattle area.

[Olerud363]

Julio Rodriquez - EV 110.5 Launch angle 33 distance 435

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - EV 109.5 Launch angle 31 distance 395

 

Congratulations to the Seattle Mariners for developing a normal f***ing super star, who will be there for a generation, whos fly balls will go the predicted distance, whos exit velocities will correlate properly with performance, whos defensive value and baserunning will not be -3 WAR, and who will bring joy and happiness to generations of fans and have his likeness on many bus adds in the Seattle area.

 

I totally realize the Vlad has probably out-hit Julio by a tiny bit since April 1st 2022 when Julio entered the league.

 

BUT THE f***ING POINT IS THAT VLAD IS SUPPOSE TO MASSIVELY OUTHIT JULIO -- He puts 75 more balls in play a year than Julio, and has better exit velocities...

 

so for 600 balls in play at better exit Vs, Vlad gets worse results than Julio's 525 balls in play... so bizarre

[Olerud363]

I totally realize the Vlad has probably out-hit Julio by a tiny bit since April 1st 2022 when Julio entered the league.

 

BUT THE f***ING POINT IS THAT VLAD IS SUPPOSE TO MASSIVELY OUTHIT JULIO -- He puts 75 more balls in play a year than Julio, and has better exit velocities...

 

so for 600 balls in play at better exit Vs, Vlad gets worse results than Julio's 525 balls in play... so bizarre

 

I know I am going on and on... and you hate me. I hate you too. All of you. DickPole or somebody can make a big 'what the hell is this s***' post. It is OK. I deserve it.

 

Post Game Announcer - and now our advanced stats analyst will give us the player of the game.

 

Advanced Stats guy - Player of the game is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

 

Post Game Announcer - That's strange. Vladdy was 0/5, made 6 outs, chased pitches, and made the error that led to the winning runs.

 

Advanced Stats guy - Your common man's view is exactly why Vladdy is so under rated. According to exit velocities and launch angles he went 2/5 with a homer. His error as an independent entity was not so important and only had a run value of negative .15. Thus based on independent event probabilities and expected wOBA Vladdy contributed 2.5 runs to tonights expected victory.

 

Post Game Announcer - but we lost. And Vladdy made a dumb error and had no hits and grounded into a double play and chased pitches for strikeouts and missed cookies....

 

Advanced Stats guy - I see. This is all very hard to explain to commoners but my models which include payroll considerations and human behavior do show Vladdy winning the triple crown for the 2026 red sox.

 

Post Game Announcer - well there you have it folks. Advanced stats.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

I love waking up to a handful of Olerud363 posts. Great coffee reading material I really appreciate it.

[Carlos Danger]

Vlad has been playing 1b full time for 4 plus years now? Still s*** footwork around the bag.

 

Rumors of Vlad not being very coachable with the bat. Seems to me a general coach-ability issue with Vlad…

 

Forgot to add the base running issues as well.

[Terminator]

[Eat My Shatkins]

Someone get hurt?

 

He's been playing mostly 3B but could play RF too I suppose.

 

It's Barger time!

[wilko]

 

KK going on the IL? Interesting if true.

[Eat My Shatkins]

So far in AAA this year Barger has 87 innings at 3B and 40 innings in RF. Three games as a DH.

[Spanky99]

 

Last night JS said KK had a right hip flexor strain, guess he'll be hitting the IL?

[Orgfiller]

So far in AAA this year Barger has 87 innings at 3B and 40 innings in RF. Three games as a DH.

 

Bit weird that he literally has yet to play an inning at LF in his career, but assuming this isn't actually some weird mental hurdle:

 

Against RHP:

LF / CF / RF: Barger(Biggio) / Varsho / Springer

2B/3B: IFK/Biggio(Barger), Schneider filling in on advantageous matchups (pitchers that don't use high heat too much)

 

Against LHP:

LF / CF / RF: Schneider / Varsho / Springer

2B/3B: IFK/Clement, Biggio sometimes

[Brownie19]

 

There's a possibility this provides the shot in the arm the offense needs.

[Brownie19]

He swings like a girl way too often. Biggio has no business batting anywhere in the top six. Batting ninth actually suits him well.

 

"like a girl"

 

You're a POS gruber.

[glory]

Excited about Barger, if true. Not sure where he would play since I don't think he has played LF, and I don't see them putting him at 3B over IKF who is actually doing well so far, but we will see.

[RustyTrombone]

Shift Springer to LF, Barger in RF vs RHP. Need to leverage Bargers best defensive attribute in RF, Springer can STFU and move to LF without saying a thing.

[Brownie19]

Shift Springer to LF, Barger in RF vs RHP. Need to leverage Bargers best defensive attribute in RF, Springer can STFU and move to LF without saying a thing.

 

I actually think this may be the reasonable approach. Put Barger is a position to succeed. Don't put the added pressure of a new position on him - put it on the ole vet Springer.

[MikeM3]

Varsho Orelvis Barger new core please

[RustyTrombone]

I actually think this may be the reasonable approach. Put Barger is a position to succeed. Don't put the added pressure of a new position on him - put it on the ole vet Springer.

 

Springer has played plenty of LF in his career too, not like its new to him.

 

Edit: Actually scratch that he hasnt, odd that a full time outfielder for a decade who isnt amazing in CF has spent basically no time in LF.

[Laika]

Varsho &

Schneider &

Orelvis &

Barger &

Clement