Bo or Vlad?

[L54]

Who are you giving $300M+ to assuming you can only choose one?

[BlueBaller]

BoBi

[Olerud363]

Who are you giving $300M+ to assuming you can only choose one?

 

laughing at the Tercet quote... according to him Gurrbabip and Teoscar (the mirage) were suppose to suck to.

 

Like why is this even a question. 2 roughly .845 OPS guys but one can play passable infield defence,

 

Bo is beating Vlad about 15-10 in fWAR career while playing 100 less games. fWar per 162 it's like 5.5 to 2.8

 

Bo twice is good according to fangraphs, crazy, because even with Vlad's under-performance it doesn't seem like it should be that way.

 

I guess it works out that way because they are actually the same as a hitter and baserunning and defence Bo is like +5 a year, and Vlad -20.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Bo without question.

[Solaxys]

Bo.

 

His work ethic and dedication to be the best won't be topped. I don't think he'll ever get complacent.

 

His sprint speed dropping by the year is a bit concerning, and I still think he should be at 2B, but not like any huge prospects for SS are knocking at the door.

[Buster]

Is this even a debate any more?

[Slade]

Bo going to lead the league in hitting 3 years in a row and still getting better. Vlad is good but not even close to what I thought he would be.

[Laika]

Vlad doesn't even hit tanks anymore. He has less dingers than certain platoon players, catchers, and 44 year old Andy McCutcheen.

 

It's kind of embarrassing.

 

Keep hitting the ball directly at the biggest part of the ballpark you f***ing idiot. Then get thrown out at 2nd as often as you can!

[glory]

I'm positive that Vlad is going to have an absolutely monster 2025 season to make this topic more of a discussion, but as of now it's kind of one sided. Bichette's on pace for another 4.5-5.5 WAR season, his third in a row, and his expected numbers don't show that to be a mirage. Not sure I'd trust someone with a 5 BB% over a 10-12 year deal, but that's going to be the cost of doing business with either of these two players. I trust Vlad's offensive profile a lot more over a long term but that also comes with bad base running, a less important defensive position, and weight issues.

[BigCecil]

Recency bias rampant. Vlad in '21 people were musing putting a "4" as the first number.

 

Bo for most of '22 was a 100 wRC+ league avg bat and is still a bottom 1/3 SS in '23. What will people say if the reverse happens this yr and his 2nd half blows? Dont get me wrong. Bat to ball skills elite. Ability to inside out the ball. Hit to all fields. Power. Its pretty cool.

 

Neither are going to sign any deal without testing the FA market without an overpay, which I would oppose. These are both rich kids set for life regardless and they want to know what the market will pay.

 

If they were into a long term deal it needs to reflect the value reality and risk sharing - the Franco/Riley ish deals make sense to me.

 

No matter how you stretch out the term to lower AAV and NPV of the funds, it still affect future flexibility and decisions.

 

To me, Vlad is an elite talent. Bat speed. Stunning EVs. Youth. But he has had one elite year with an * beside it. Yandy Diaz is out producing the s*** out of him for $8M. Vlad has been hyped so much. Think about MLB putting him in the All Star game in the home run contest with no track record. His career WAR is not that interesting.

 

My prediction is they both sign elsewhere or are elsewhere before 2026. Just sayin'

[Buster]

Recency bias rampant. Vlad in '21 people were musing putting a "4" as the first number.

 

Bo for most of '22 was a 100 wRC+ league avg bat and is still a bottom 1/3 SS in '23. What will people say if the reverse happens this yr and his 2nd half blows? Dont get me wrong. Bat to ball skills elite. Ability to inside out the ball. Hit to all fields. Power. Its pretty cool.

 

Neither are going to sign any deal without testing the FA market without an overpay, which I would oppose. These are both rich kids set for life regardless and they want to know what the market will pay.

 

If they were into a long term deal it needs to reflect the value reality and risk sharing - the Franco/Riley ish deals make sense to me.

 

No matter how you stretch out the term to lower AAV and NPV of the funds, it still affect future flexibility and decisions.

 

To me, Vlad is an elite talent. Bat speed. Stunning EVs. Youth. But he has had one elite year with an * beside it. Yandy Diaz is out producing the s*** out of him for $8M. Vlad has been hyped so much. Think about MLB putting him in the All Star game in the home run contest with no track record. His career WAR is not that interesting.

 

My prediction is they both sign elsewhere or are elsewhere before 2026. Just sayin'

 

The org is not now, and will not be in the future, ruthless enough to let both of these guys walk. It would be a marketing disaster. Thanks to Shatkins, there is no one in the pipeline to replace them on the bobblehead roster, with the possible exception of RT. If someone is going to overpay - and someone will - it will be the BJs.

[Krylian]

Bo. Cause he's in good shape. Get rid of the fatties.

[Laika]

I don't think it's a recency thing. Since they entered the league, Bo has a 130 wRC+ and Vlad has a 133 wRC+.

 

So they are equal offensive talents according to the 2300 and 2000 PA of data we have since they debuted. Bo is a year older but Vlad quite obviously bleeds value at every aspect of baseball that is not hitting, so I don't even think the discussion is particularly close.

 

And then if you want to focus on the "shape" of their careers...

 

2019 = BO for hitting and value

2020 = BO for hitting and value

2021 = VLAD for hitting and value

2022 = VLAD for hitting (by a hair) but BO for value by a significant amount

2023 = BO for hitting and value

 

So Bo the better player consistently... with Vlad's 2021 the only exception

[wilko]

I'd have to say Bo. This season he's been a beast and his work shows for it. Vladdy can go hit worm burners with the Yanks.

[Stangstag]

Vlad doesn't even hit tanks anymore. He has less dingers than certain platoon players, catchers, and 44 year old Andy McCutcheen.

 

It's kind of embarrassing.

 

Keep hitting the ball directly at the biggest part of the ballpark you f***ing idiot. Then get thrown out at 2nd as often as you can!

 

I don't think his Knee has been 100% healthy, even to start the season. Because yeah he just doesn't seem to crush any balls anymore

[JFD]

Don't even need to look to know who that one vote is lol

[Buster]

I don't think it's a recency thing. Since they entered the league, Bo has a 130 wRC+ and Vlad has a 133 wRC+.

 

So they are equal offensive talents according to the 2300 and 2000 PA of data we have since they debuted. Bo is a year older but Vlad quite obviously bleeds value at every aspect of baseball that is not hitting, so I don't even think the discussion is particularly close.

 

And then if you want to focus on the "shape" of their careers...

 

2019 = BO for hitting and value

2020 = BO for hitting and value

2021 = VLAD for hitting and value

2022 = VLAD for hitting (by a hair) but BO for value by a significant amount

2023 = BO for hitting and value

 

So Bo the better player consistently... with Vlad's 2021 the only exception

 

out of curiosity, how does a GG 1st baseman compare to an average SS in terms of value/wins?

[Laika]

I don't think his Knee has been 100% healthy, even to start the season. Because yeah he just doesn't seem to crush any balls anymore

 

He still hits the ball pretty f***ing hard. Like #4 in baseball.

 

I think he just doesn't like hitting home runs. He likes to run the bases! He's so good at running the bases!!!!!

[Laika]

out of curiosity, how does a GG 1st baseman compare to an average SS in terms of value/wins?

 

positional adjustment is like 2 wins (20 runs) between an average SS and an average 1B.

 

Vlad did win the GG but defensive metrics don't really care. He has 0 DRS for his career and almost 0 UZR. He might be above average but it doesn't make sense to attribute much value to that.

 

Bo is probably something like a minus 5 run defensive SS though. If you assume that and be generous and give Vlad +5 runs for his GG defense, he still needs to make up about 10 runs elsewhere on BO.

[John_Havok]

It's a complicated question because if you think about absolute talent ceiling, Vlad wins. If he pulled his head out of his ass he SHOULD be able to hit like 2021 Vlad did fairly consistently. That's a guy I want for the next 10 years.

 

But in real world ceiling...Bo wins.

 

Bo has a higher ceiling but that's largely due to the position he plays. With even modest improvement on defense... he's a 7 fWAR+ guy at his peak. 150 wrc+ bat with even average SS defense is money in the bank. I dont think he'll ever be elite D, but maybe even slightly above average is well within the realm of possibility.

 

The downside of Vlad... well... we're seeing it. Tremendously skilled bat to ball tendencies have him swinging at garbage he should swing at and prevents his power from playing up to where it should. 2-3 fWAR floor though simply because when he does contact the ball, the EVs are savage. Usefull player, but not a guy you sign to a 10 year deal hoping you get more ceiling and less floor.

 

Bo's downside... probably 3.5-5 fWAR. His bat is prone to going into streaks where the babip gods torment him and he'll probably never walk alot. But because of his hit tool and power his offensive floor is right around 120 wRC+. That's probably even low given that his worst season output is the COVID shortened 2020 when he put up... 120. any full season has been 122 and 129. He has a higher floor and a higher chance of playing near his ceiling IMO.

 

 

Vlads ceiling right now is more of a dream than a reality. Bo's ceiling is actually kind of in view.

[Daniel Labude]

Don't even need to look to know who that one vote is lol

 

[L54]

laughing at the Tercet quote... according to him Gurrbabip and Teoscar (the mirage) were suppose to suck to.

 

Like why is this even a question. 2 roughly .845 OPS guys but one can play passable infield defence,

 

Bo is beating Vlad about 15-10 in fWAR career while playing 100 less games. fWar per 162 it's like 5.5 to 2.8

 

Bo twice is good according to fangraphs, crazy, because even with Vlad's under-performance it doesn't seem like it should be that way.

 

I guess it works out that way because they are actually the same as a hitter and baserunning and defence Bo is like +5 a year, and Vlad -20.

 

That quote is great lol

[L54]

Some guys are saying is it even a question but ya it is. I bet if you looked at posts from the offseason lots of posters were choosing Vlad. Myself included.

 

Vlad’s career year might’ve taken place in Dunedin and Buffalo

[Jays333]

Is it even remotely possible to keep them both?

Recency bias says its Bo and a no brainer. However im skeptical to give up on Vladdy so soon. If he can fully put it together I think he his true self is closer to his almost MVP season.

[BigCecil]

I don't think it's a recency thing. Since they entered the league, Bo has a 130 wRC+ and Vlad has a 133 wRC+.

 

So they are equal offensive talents according to the 2300 and 2000 PA of data we have since they debuted. Bo is a year older but Vlad quite obviously bleeds value at every aspect of baseball that is not hitting, so I don't even think the discussion is particularly close.

 

And then if you want to focus on the "shape" of their careers...

 

2019 = BO for hitting and value

2020 = BO for hitting and value

2021 = VLAD for hitting and value

2022 = VLAD for hitting (by a hair) but BO for value by a significant amount

2023 = BO for hitting and value

 

So Bo the better player consistently... with Vlad's 2021 the only exception

 

I get their overall numbers are still pretty impressive with good sample sizes. No doubt. My point on recency bias is if you asked this question in 21 or the first half of last year you would get a lot of changing different views. It was you who said mid last year Bo is +1 hit and -1 mitt tools from Javier Baez as a player. Which I thought was a good comment at the time lol. I’m into signing both of them frankly. It comes down to 2 things. AAV/ term and if they actually want to hit the FA market or not. I have concerns about them both long term. Bo’s D at a position that usually commands premium $ and Vlad’s body type.

[John_Havok]

I get their overall numbers are still pretty impressive with good sample sizes. No doubt. My point on recency bias is if you asked this question in 21 or the first half of last year you would get a lot of changing different views. It was you who said mid last year Bo is +1 hit and -1 mitt tools from Javier Baez as a player. Which I thought was a good comment at the time lol. I’m into signing both of them frankly. It comes down to 2 things. AAV/ term and if they actually want to hit the FA market or not. I have concerns about them both long term. Bo’s D at a position that usually commands premium $ and Vlad’s body type.

 

I think we've seen Bo's floor and Vlad'd floor. Bo's is better. We're seeing Bo's ceiling right now likely, though there is at least a chance his D improves a bit over the next few seasons. Bo has that massive inner drive to be better. Vlad had that for a while, but I think he lost it a bit and needs to get it back.

[Olerud363]

positional adjustment is like 2 wins (20 runs) between an average SS and an average 1B.

 

Vlad did win the GG but defensive metrics don't really care. He has 0 DRS for his career and almost 0 UZR. He might be above average but it doesn't make sense to attribute much value to that.

 

Bo is probably something like a minus 5 run defensive SS though. If you assume that and be generous and give Vlad +5 runs for his GG defense, he still needs to make up about 10 runs elsewhere on BO.

 

According to fangraphs Bo is about +3.5 career as a base runner and +2 on defense so +5.5 on those two, Vlad is -16 and -61.7 so -78.

 

It works out to be about 25 runs per 162

[Olerud363]

Some guys are saying is it even a question but ya it is. I bet if you looked at posts from the offseason lots of posters were choosing Vlad. Myself included.

 

VladÂ’s career year mightÂ’ve taken place in Dunedin and Buffalo

 

He really hit well in those parks, and his minor league numbers were insane. Contrary to some people thinking minor league parks are smaller, or easier to hit in, that is not true (minor league pitchers are easier to hit yes...)

 

So why so much success in the minor league parks both at the minor and major league levels?

 

Like if you converted his new hampshire and Buffalo 2019/20 numbers to mlb equivalencies you get the same as hit 2021....

 

So like is there some huge psychological block going on or something?

 

lol Tampa should find a way to get him, between their crazy batting strategy psycho-hypnosis 9th level alertness system (whatever the f*** it turns out to be), and the 9000 a night crowds (making Vlad think it's the minor leagues), he'll hit .420 .520 .800 for them... no really, if you applied the same boost Harold Ramirez is getting from their system, he would.

[John_Havok]

He really hit well in those parks, and his minor league numbers were insane. Contrary to some people thinking minor league parks are smaller, or easier to hit in, that is not true (minor league pitchers are easier to hit yes...)

 

So why so much success in the minor league parks both at the minor and major league levels?

 

Like if you converted his new hampshire and Buffalo 2019/20 numbers to mlb equivalencies you get the same as hit 2021....

 

So like is there some huge psychological block going on or something?

 

lol Tampa should find a way to get him, between their crazy batting strategy psycho-hypnosis 9th level alertness system (whatever the f*** it turns out to be), and the 9000 a night crowds (making Vlad think it's the minor leagues), he'll hit .420 .520 .800 for them... no really, if you applied the same boost Harold Ramirez is getting from their system, he would.

 

It's not because they were minor league parks - it's because he knew how to hit fly balls to his pull side regularly back then.

 

 

It could be as simple as Vlad being "over-prepared" by the analytics and is suffering from analysis paralysis. Look at his ST games... he just went out there and was "see ball-hit ball" oriented without worrying about the scouting reports of the pitcher he was facing or what their tendencies were. Maybe his brain just isnt wired for to take in all that info and transfer it into a coherent plan at the plate. THat kind of approach probably doesnt work for everyone, though it probably works wonders for certain guys.

 

His injuries probably have a bit to do with it too, but maybe once healthy the hitting coach and strategist just need to take a step back from Vlad and just let him grip it and rip it for a while.

[Terminator]

I picked Bo due to positional value but I wouldn't bury Vlad just yet. He's got a career high launch angle going and his his expected stats are right in line with his 2021 season. I think his numbers are about to explode.