Former Blue Jays Thread

[TheHurl]

Lourdes right groin tightness. Sub .650 OPS for June and July?

[John_Havok]

Lourdes right groin tightness. Sub .650 OPS for June and July?

 

He was already starting to slump over the last two weeks

[wilko]

Lourdes right groin tightness. Sub .650 OPS for June and July?

 

[BigCecil]

I could get on board with handing out these kinds of deals to the truly elite player class. Like Aaron Judge, Ohtani, etc., but the class of guys below that is getting those kinds of deals now as well. I would love for the team to be able to retain Matt Chapman. But I sure as s*** don't want the team handing him a deal that pays him $30+ million a season until he's 40 given how that will kneecap the team in the second half of the deal. It's the same situation with Xander Boegarts, on a George Springer kind of deal I would have loved for the Jays to pick him up. But paying him until he's 40 years old? Hard pass to that as well.

 

100%. The Xander deal is crazy IMO and I wouldn’t have signed Marcus for 7/175 at his age and somewhat limited high end track record, as much as I like him as a player and hard worker.

[AMS528]

We need to remember he was entering his age 31 season had had exactly 2 seasons with a wRC+ over 100 in his career. There was a ton of risk. Luckily, he somehow transformed into a great base runner last year, which helped overshadow a VERY slow start and just a 107 wRC+, allowing him to post a 4.2 WAR season. This year, he looks like one of the best all around players in baseball.

 

Known as a very hard worker, I'm really happy to see Marcus have success and that deal looks great for Texas right now. We'll see how long his physical skills hold up though. A lot of middle infielders hit the wall in their early to mid 30's.

 

Dropped his strikeouts a lot as well over the past two years. He just kind of seems to do things to improve his game all the time. He might already be worth half of that contract by the end of the season (he'll blow past that according to bWAR which loves him).

 

I figure even if his hitting drops off, his smart baserunning and solid defense means he'll eke out positive value for at least couple of those seasons and be pretty close to worth the entirety of that contract.

[Captain_Obvious]

Should we trade Vladdy for Noda?

[max silver]

100%. The Xander deal is crazy IMO and I wouldn’t have signed Marcus for 7/175 at his age and somewhat limited high end track record, as much as I like him as a player and hard worker.

 

I was a believer that Semien was a reasonably safe high end performer but at the time of his signing a 7 year deal was hard to believe. His deal was just so far beyond what Springer had signed for a season prior although I guess in that season there weren't actually many teams looking to spend so that may have suppressed Springer's eventual deal a bit. If you had a crystal ball and knew how free agent salaries were about to explode then you could more readily justify the Semien contract, but it certainly looked like a bit of an overpay at the time, I wonder how far the Jays were willing to go as they were reportedly in on the negotiations, and also involved in negotiations with Seager as well. I recall they also tried to negotiate an extension with Semien before he hit free agency but weren't able to get him signed on the dotted line.

[Brownie19]

Should we trade Vladdy for Noda?

 

Probably. Noda is the one who got away. This FO is s***!

[The Cats Ass]

Varsho neither walks as little as Grichuk nor does he whiff as often. Swings less at balls and makes more contact on them when he does, more contact overall/less whiffs. I actually think Varsho has a pretty decent eye, it's not often he's whiffing at garbage outside the zone, he just has current holes in certain areas of the zone so I think he's been pressing which has lead to not optimal swing decisions at times. This is unlike Grichuk who just kind of swings at everything, there was never a breaking ball low and away that he didn't love. They both have good power with some swing and miss, that's really the extent of the comp.

 

Grichuk is now no longer a HR threat. He's an OBP machine. Rocking a .393 OBP.

[Stangstag]

Grichuk is now no longer a HR threat. He's an OBP machine. Rocking a .393 OBP.

 

In Coors too. Wacky world

[mphenhef]

In Coors too. Wacky world

 

Coors does tend to impact batting average more than homeruns.

[Brownie19]

Coors does tend to impact batting average more than homeruns.

 

I wish you would post on here more man! I love your insight lately.

[jaysblue]

Grichuk is now no longer a HR threat. He's an OBP machine. Rocking a .393 OBP.

 

He's actually become a valuable asset in the LOD.

[Terminator]

Carson Kelly is back and Gabriel Moreno has been demoted to the No. 2 Catcher spot after having sat the past 3 games in a row.

[Jonn]

Carson Kelly is back and Gabriel Moreno has been demoted to the No. 2 Catcher spot after having sat the past 3 games in a row.

 

Carson Kelly f***ing blows why would he replace Moreno lol

[Terminator]

Carson Kelly f***ing blows why would he replace Moreno lol

 

Don't ask me. Ask the division leading D-Bags. They probably got tired of his noodle bat.

[Brownie19]

Carson Kelly f***ing blows why would he replace Moreno lol

 

Moreno's last month has been pretty awful

 

60 wRC+

.210/.282/.306

[Laika]

Moreno's profile is mildly concerning right now. He has a 6% walk rate, 20.5% K rate, and a 0.085 ISO.

 

In 2022 there were exactly zero qualified hitters with ratios like that, and an above average wRC+.

 

Some comparables with walk, K, and power rates sort of like this might be Ke'Bryan Hayes, Nick Solak, Raimel Tapia. But even these three limp dick bats have more demonstrated game power than Moreno has done so far.

 

But it's only MILDLY concerning because he's so young and his minor league track record implies that more pop is on the way.

[max silver]

Moreno's profile is mildly concerning right now. He has a 6% walk rate, 20.5% K rate, and a 0.085 ISO.

 

In 2022 there were exactly zero qualified hitters with ratios like that, and an above average wRC+.

 

Some comparables with walk, K, and power rates sort of like this might be Ke'Bryan Hayes, Nick Solak, Raimel Tapia. But even these three limp dick bats have more demonstrated game power than Moreno has done so far.

 

But it's only MILDLY concerning because he's so young and his minor league track record implies that more pop is on the way.

 

Moreno has been swinging a noodle bat since the thumb injury in June of 2021. In the 145 combined games since the injury in AA, AAA and MLB he's hit all of 6 home runs and 26 doubles in 145 total games. I really don't think the organization would have entertained trading him if there weren't very real concerns about whether his previously shown levels of power were going to eventually return.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Moreno has been swinging a noodle bat since the thumb injury in June of 2021. In the 145 combined games since the injury in AA, AAA and MLB he's hit all of 6 home runs and 26 doubles in 145 total games. I really don't think the organization would have entertained trading him if there weren't very real concerns about whether his previously shown levels of power were going to eventually return.

 

That's weird isn't it? Like, how does a single thumb injury sap all the power out of a players body, never to return?

[max silver]

That's weird isn't it? Like, how does a single thumb injury sap all the power out of a players body, never to return?

 

It's been basically two full calendar years now since the injury occurred. Perhaps the thumb ligaments may have been damaged or something of that sort. I think Moreno's lack of power may be more due to his batted ball profile vs lack of juice though. Average/max exit velocities are both mid 50's percentile, but he's a drastically ground ball oriented in his batted ball tendencies. He has like a 60/15 ground ball to fly ball split so with middling raw power it would be pretty hard to do any damage at the plate.

[Laika]

It's been basically two full calendar years now since the injury occurred. Perhaps the thumb ligaments may have been damaged or something of that sort. I think Moreno's lack of power may be more due to his batted ball profile vs lack of juice though. Average/max exit velocities are both mid 50's percentile, but he's a drastically ground ball oriented in his batted ball tendencies. He has like a 60/15 ground ball to fly ball split so with middling raw power it would be pretty hard to do any damage at the plate.

 

Yeah I think it's approach based. Which is why I would not be too concerned quite yet. He's probably physically capable of being a 15 HR hitter it just means his slashline might look more like.... I dunno... .253/.313 /.426?

 

that is Travis d'Arnaud's career line.

[Jonn]

Moreno's last month has been pretty awful

 

60 wRC+

.210/.282/.306

 

He’s also 23 in his first full season and was catching a lot the first couple of months. He has the bat to ball skills. His offense is the least of my concerns especially when he’s completely shutting down the running game.

 

If Carson Kelly can get back to his 2019 form I can see the intrigue but that was 4 years ago and he was really bad last year.

[Brownie19]

He’s also 23 in his first full season and was catching a lot the first couple of months. He has the bat to ball skills. His offense is the least of my concerns especially when he’s completely shutting down the running game.

 

If Carson Kelly can get back to his 2019 form I can see the intrigue but that was 4 years ago and he was really bad last year.

 

Huh? Carson Kelly was as good in 2021 as he was in 2019 (1.8 WAR and a league average bat). I'm sure they'll probably start splitting time, but I don't see an issue with running Kelly out there 3 days in a row in an attempt to get him back into the swing of things - especially when Moreno has been struggling bad with the bat (could be a mental break for him).

[MikeM3]

Merryweather having a good year damn

[jaysblue]

Moreno has struggled as of late. Offensively if he doesn't hit for a high batting average or hit for any power, his line definitely will look flat.

 

If he develops into a 15HR bat and maintains a decent to high batting average, he'll be fine offensively given his defensive abilities. He's still only 23 like Jonn said.

 

Again, I couldn't care if Moreno sucks or he has success in comparison to other posters on here who just are trying to prove a point that they were right or wrong about the trade. As long as Varsho is a 4-5 WAR outfielder each season, Jays will be more than fine. If Kirk can regain his 2022 form and be a 3-4 WAR catcher, even better!

[Brownie19]

Merryweather having a good year damn

 

I think we all knew he was a high risk/high reward type player who without a doubt had the skills to run into some successful years in the majors. But this organization wasn't in a position where they could keep holding on and hoping that would happen in a Blue Jays uniform. Good for Merryweather though. Hope it continues.

 

Cubs have had a number of guys exceed expectations this year and I see Anthony Kay is now back up with the big club.

[Laika]

I think we all knew he was a high risk/high reward type player who without a doubt had the skills to run into some successful years in the majors. But this organization wasn't in a position where they could keep holding on and hoping that would happen in a Blue Jays uniform. Good for Merryweather though. Hope it continues.

 

Cubs have had a number of guys exceed expectations this year and I see Anthony Kay is now back up with the big club.

 

I dunno. With the volatility of relievers it's questionable to cut a guy like Merryweather and keep guys like Cimber.

 

Valid to criticize Toronto on this one.

 

Why let a guy with extreme "stuff" walk and keep certain others who are at best middle relievers?

[Brownie19]

Moreno has struggled as of late. Offensively if he doesn't hit for a high batting average or hit for any power, his line definitely will look flat.

 

If he develops into a 15HR bat and maintains a decent to high batting average, he'll be fine offensively given his defensive abilities. He's still only 23 like Jonn said.

 

Again, I couldn't care if Moreno sucks or he has success in comparison to other posters on here who just are trying to prove a point that they were right or wrong about the trade. As long as Varsho is a 4-5 WAR outfielder each season, Jays will be more than fine. If Kirk can regain his 2022 form and be a 3-4 WAR catcher, even better!

 

I think it also matters WHEN that happens. If he develops into a 15 HR /.300 hitting catcher in 2027 or 2028 (when he's 27/28) than great, he'll be a superstar catcher in this league - BUT that wouldn't have helped the Jays at all as it didn't align with their window. If that happens next year, then that would certainly suck from a Jays perspective. But there's also a possibility it never develops...

[max silver]

I think we all knew he was a high risk/high reward type player who without a doubt had the skills to run into some successful years in the majors. But this organization wasn't in a position where they could keep holding on and hoping that would happen in a Blue Jays uniform. Good for Merryweather though. Hope it continues.

 

Cubs have had a number of guys exceed expectations this year and I see Anthony Kay is now back up with the big club.

 

I looked at his pitching bot and stuff+ metrics and they are basically both unchanged. The biggest difference I can see is drastically improved fastball command based on his heat maps. Last season there was a giant blob of red right middle middle, this year it looks like he's been placing it up in the zone more effectively. His pitch mix has been altered as well, he's even at 45/45 fastball slider with about 10% changeups, whereas last season he was 52/34 fastball/slider despite his fastball being regularly clobbered.