Former Blue Jays Thread

[Stangstag]

He is remarkably consistent. His wRC+ in '23 is the same as '22 and matches his career number.

 

His HR total last year was an anomaly. Hamate bone. Someone will give him 3/40 ish as a bat.

 

Still shake my head that ChiSox gave Benentendi 5/75. He is only 28 but feels like he has been around forever.

 

Would it be terrible for us to sign him for 3/40ish if that’s all it takes?? We could use a stronger bat in the OF

[Laika]

I'd rather just sign a stop-gap 1 year player if they feel like they need an addition.

 

Gurriel has a 50% chance to be a 1 WAR player in any given year so that's not appealing. Really low upside guy since his baserunning and defense = atrocious.

[BigCecil]

Would it be terrible for us to sign him for 3/40ish if that’s all it takes?? We could use a stronger bat in the OF

 

Not really. Negative D value with like a 115 wRC+. Just not enough bat to be worth it in my view. If he could get back to the 125-134 wRC+ seasons he had early on then he would be. He is in kind of the same boat as Teo on their next deal. Bats for hire. At least Teo's D numbers this year are not bad on OAA.

[Brownie19]

Just checked and Gunner Hoglund isn't pitching very well this year.

[Jonn]

Just checked and Gunner Hoglund isn't pitching very well this year.

 

Shocked he’s actually healthy. Hasn’t been the case very often and in his professional career.

[glory]

I'm not sure whether to give the FO credit for trading Martin, Groshans, and Hoglund before they completely bottomed out, or give the FO s*** for drafting them in the first place (along with Zoinks and Warmoth) with 1st round picks. Other than Manoah that's kind of a steaming pile of crap for 1st round picks. Edited July 10, 2023 by glory

[Stangstag]

I'm not sure whether to give the FO credit for trading Martin, Groshans, and Hoglund before they completely bottomed out, or give the FO s*** for drafting them in the first place (along with Zoinks and Warmoth) with 1st round round picks. Other than Manoah that's kind of a steaming pile of crap for 1st round picks.

 

Lol yeah. Like at least they got something in return for those picks, but the guys they’ve been drafting are dogshit

[Olerud363]

I'm not sure whether to give the FO credit for trading Martin, Groshans, and Hoglund before they completely bottomed out, or give the FO s*** for drafting them in the first place (along with Zoinks and Warmoth) with 1st round round picks. Other than Manoah that's kind of a steaming pile of crap for 1st round picks.

 

I'm always amazed at how much s*** Ricciardi gets he drafted Russ Adams, Aaron Hill, Romero, Marcum, Lind, David Bush, Travis Snider, David Cooper, Eric Thames, David Purcey, Brett Cecil, Chad Jenkins, J.P. Arencibia, all of who became prospects then played at least a couple years in the majors. Most didn't work out as franchise icons or anything but at least they reached prospect, then 'major league player' status.

 

All these Shatkins draft picks aren't even succeeding at aaa. Hill, Romero, Marcum, Lind, David Bush, Thames and Brett Cecil all made it to the point where they could be a regular on a contending team for at least a couple of years.

[max silver]

I'm not sure whether to give the FO credit for trading Martin, Groshans, and Hoglund before they completely bottomed out, or give the FO s*** for drafting them in the first place (along with Zoinks and Warmoth) with 1st round picks. Other than Manoah that's kind of a steaming pile of crap for 1st round picks.

 

There is definitely a bit of credit to be given for knowing when to cut bait and get decent value on some of these guys, but the drafting has been a real issue for awhile now. Max Pentecost is another recent first rounder that ended up flaming out, but that may not necessarily been a bad pick at the time and more of a case of s*** happening that caused him to retire at an early age. I suspect amateur talent acquisition should be one key area for James Click to overhaul as there has been a lull of several years prior to last year's draft and IFA signing period where there really wasn't much impact talent added to the organization. Last year saw the likes of Bonilla and Barriera added to the organization but each of these guys are a lot of years away.

[Brownie19]

I'm always amazed at how much s*** Ricciardi gets he drafted Russ Adams, Aaron Hill, Romero, Marcum, Lind, David Bush, Travis Snider, David Cooper, Eric Thames, David Purcey, Brett Cecil, Chad Jenkins, J.P. Arencibia, all of who became prospects then played at least a couple years in the majors. Most didn't work out as franchise icons or anything but at least they reached prospect, then 'major league player' status.

 

All these Shatkins draft picks aren't even succeeding at aaa. Hill, Romero, Marcum, Lind, David Bush, Thames and Brett Cecil all made it to the point where they could be a regular on a contending team for at least a couple of years.

 

I'm not giving Riccardi credit for drafting Eric Thames. He had to go play in Japan (or was it Korea?) before he found a spot at the ML level. And Adams, Cooper, Purcey, Jenkins were all complete busts. Romero, Hill, Lind and Cecil seem to be the only guys he drafted worth noting.

[jaysblue]

I'm not giving Riccardi credit for drafting Eric Thames. He had to go play in Japan (or was it Korea?) before he found a spot at the ML level. And Adams, Cooper, Purcey, Jenkins were all complete busts. Romero, Hill, Lind and Cecil seem to be the only guys he drafted worth noting.

 

In the 2000s, you probably would be saying Ricciardi was a genius and praising him through the roof.

 

Riccardi and his FO never did draft any superstar elite talent, though yeah some players came up, contributed and had some solid years like Aaron Hill, Shaun Marcum, Adam Lind, Ricky Romero, Dave Bush, Brandon League and Brett Cecil. Nothing spectacular though from 2002-2009.

 

So far, under Atkins and company, it's just been Bo Bichette and Alek Manoah who has made positive contributions from 2016-2023. Pretty much the same timespan as JPR. Jays have done a decent job with International Free Agents like Moreno and Kirk, so will give the FO credit for them thus far.

Edited July 10, 2023 by jaysblue

[max silver]

In the 2000s, you probably would be saying Ricciardi was a genius and praising him through the roof.

 

Riccardi and his FO never did draft any superstar elite talent, though yeah some players came up, contributed and had some solid years like Aaron Hill, Shaun Marcum, Adam Lind, Ricky Romero, Dave Bush, Brandon League and Brett Cecil. Nothing spectacular though from 2002-2009.

 

So far, under Atkins and company, it's just been Alek Manoah who has made positive contributions from 2016-2023. Pretty much the same timespan as JPR. Jays have done a decent job with International Free Agents like Moreno and Kirk, so will give the FO credit for them thus far.

 

That Bo Bichette guy has been pretty decent as well.

[Brownie19]

In the 2000s, you probably would be saying Ricciardi was a genius and praising him through the roof.

 

Riccardi and his FO never did draft any superstar elite talent, though yeah some players came up, contributed and had some solid years like Aaron Hill, Shaun Marcum, Adam Lind, Ricky Romero, Dave Bush, Brandon League and Brett Cecil. Nothing spectacular though from 2002-2009.

 

So far, under Atkins and company, it's just been Alek Manoah who has made positive contributions from 2016-2023. Pretty much the same timespan as JPR. Jays have done a decent job with International Free Agents like Moreno and Kirk, so will give the FO credit for them thus far.

 

Why would you suggest that? Is this still on the thread that I'm some Blue Jays homer? Good god man - let it go.

 

Atkins' drafts haven't been very good at all. Manoah and Pearson - that's about it. Fingers crossed that Ricky T and Barriera work out. IFA's, trades and FA signings have been a lot more positive to date.

[Laika]

I'm always amazed at how much s*** Ricciardi gets he drafted Russ Adams, Aaron Hill, Romero, Marcum, Lind, David Bush, Travis Snider, David Cooper, Eric Thames, David Purcey, Brett Cecil, Chad Jenkins, J.P. Arencibia, all of who became prospects then played at least a couple years in the majors. Most didn't work out as franchise icons or anything but at least they reached prospect, then 'major league player' status.

 

All these Shatkins draft picks aren't even succeeding at aaa. Hill, Romero, Marcum, Lind, David Bush, Thames and Brett Cecil all made it to the point where they could be a regular on a contending team for at least a couple of years.

 

Is that really an impressive list? Hill was a home run with a 20+ WAR career but Bichette might eclipse that before he turns 27. Other than Hill.... you've got a handful of players who had decent but fleeting careers, and then a bunch of busts or role players.

 

Like, if you are going to go that deep on draft record you also have to give Shatkins credit for a bunch of other guys. Manoah and Biggio and Pearson are on the team now, then the AAA/AAAA guys at present who are roster options, then the prospects in AA or whatever who are likely to make it at some point, and then also all the good draft picks they ended up trading away or getting value for before they flopped. Noda, Winckowski, the higher profile trades.

[jaysblue]

That Bo Bichette guy has been pretty decent as well.

 

Forgot to put him sorry. For some reason was thinking about arms more than anything. Thanks for the catch!

[jaysblue]

Why would you suggest that? Is this still on the thread that I'm some Blue Jays homer? Good god man - let it go.

 

Atkins' drafts haven't been very good at all. Manoah and Pearson - that's about it. Fingers crossed that Ricky T and Barriera work out. IFA's, trades and FA signings have been a lot more positive to date.

 

Yup agree with you on this latter part for sure.

 

Outside of Bo, and Manoah/Pearson, you wish they could have produced more MLB talent. Hope those guys you mention above do work out and yeah even the possibility some of Atkins' draft picks have an impact after his tenure here.

[Olerud363]

I'm not giving Riccardi credit for drafting Eric Thames. He had to go play in Japan (or was it Korea?) before he found a spot at the ML level. And Adams, Cooper, Purcey, Jenkins were all complete busts. Romero, Hill, Lind and Cecil seem to be the only guys he drafted worth noting.

 

It's not Riccardi's fault that the industry didn't recognize Thames had value.

 

What is the difference between Lind and Thames other than the order of their success and failure sequencing. Lind was lucky enough to have a big year in 2009, which then bought him 1300 games in MLB.

 

Lind at his worst is Thames at his worst, Lind at his best is Thames at his best. They are the same except for some sequencing luck.

 

Thames is also lucky in a way to get another chance. Doubt he learned anything in Korea that wasn't already there. His 2010 and 2011 minor league numbers indicate that talent was always there.

 

Guys go up and down and some of it is just Random. Thames given 600 at bats a year probably would have done what he did in 2017 a couple of other times.

 

Adams, Cooper, Purcey and Jenkins weren't at the same 'bust' level as the Shatkins picks, some of who won't make Buffalo... they were all major league players. Cooper was probably another guy at the Lind/Thames level but career got ended by injury.

 

(Cooper had a bad year at aa, as lots of guys do, but that too was partly luck).

[Brownie19]

Yup agree with you on this latter part for sure.

 

Outside of Bo, and Manoah/Pearson, you wish they could have produced more MLB talent. Hope those guys you mention above do work out and yeah even the possibility some of Atkins' draft picks have an impact after his tenure here.

 

That's great, but what gave you the impression I loved Riccardi?

[John_Havok]

In the 2000s, you probably would be saying Ricciardi was a genius and praising him through the roof.

 

Riccardi and his FO never did draft any superstar elite talent, though yeah some players came up, contributed and had some solid years like Aaron Hill, Shaun Marcum, Adam Lind, Ricky Romero, Dave Bush, Brandon League and Brett Cecil. Nothing spectacular though from 2002-2009.

 

So far, under Atkins and company, it's just been Bo Bichette and Alek Manoah who has made positive contributions from 2016-2023. Pretty much the same timespan as JPR. Jays have done a decent job with International Free Agents like Moreno and Kirk, so will give the FO credit for them thus far.

 

Youre neglecting the guys theyve drafted and then traded that also made the majors, IE Noda, Winckowski, Kevin Smith, Riley Adams, Zach Logue, Palacios, Snead etc. 2019 Still has a chance to bring in more than Manoah and 2018 has Kloffenstein and Barger seemingly close to getting a shot.

[Olerud363]

Is that really an impressive list? Hill was a home run with a 20+ WAR career but Bichette might eclipse that before he turns 27. Other than Hill.... you've got a handful of players who had decent but fleeting careers, and then a bunch of busts or role players.

 

Like, if you are going to go that deep on draft record you also have to give Shatkins credit for a bunch of other guys. Manoah and Biggio and Pearson are on the team now, then the AAA/AAAA guys at present who are roster options, then the prospects in AA or whatever who are likely to make it at some point, and then also all the good draft picks they ended up trading away or getting value for before they flopped. Noda, Winckowski, the higher profile trades.

 

Marcum was 10 WAR, David Bush 10 WAR, Romero 8 WAR, Hill 20 WAR, Lind 10 WAR, Thames 4.6 WAR (but was = to Lind other than luck of getting hot at the right time), Ryan Goins 0 WAR but was pretty much a regular on a contending team once.

 

Obviously the Shatkins outcomes are still to be decided and we won't know for 10 years.

[Laika]

Marcum was 10 WAR, David Bush 10 WAR, Romero 8 WAR, Hill 20 WAR, Lind 10 WAR, Thames 4.6 WAR (but was = to Lind other than luck of getting hot at the right time), Ryan Goins 0 WAR but was pretty much a regular on a contending team once.

 

Obviously the Shatkins outcomes are still to be decided and we won't know for 10 years.

 

Okay so between just Bo, Manoah, and Biggio they're likely to match or eclipse Hill+Marcum (Bo), Romero (Manoah), and Thames (Biggio). They just need to find a single Lind in the Bush and we are laughing. That's if we ignore the drafted but traded MLB players like Noda and Winckowski.

[Olerud363]

Okay so between just Bo, Manoah, and Biggio they're likely to match or eclipse Hill+Marcum (Bo), Romero (Manoah), and Thames (Biggio). They just need to find a single Lind in the Bush and we are laughing. That's if we ignore the drafted but traded MLB players like Noda and Winckowski.

 

Just saying my memory is that there always were more players to be excited about in the J.P. years than now... Like even the failures (Snider, Arencibia) were exciting failures who we all loved and were the next big thing until they failed in the show, the guys now are failing at aa.

 

Some other players of note from JP era... Yan Gomes may be the second best player they drafted.

 

Yan Gomes (17 WAR), Jake Marisnick (9 WAR), Drew Huttchison (4 WAR), Aaron Loup (5 WAR), Erik Kratz (3.5 WAR)

 

Ryan Roberts (5.8 WAR) (good regular once on division winning team)

 

(looking it up Ryan Roberts was a clone of a couple of the Jays current 24 year old prospects doing OK, Jays gave up on him though).

[BigCecil]

I'm not sure whether to give the FO credit for trading Martin, Groshans, and Hoglund before they completely bottomed out, or give the FO s*** for drafting them in the first place (along with Zoinks and Warmoth) with 1st round picks. Other than Manoah that's kind of a steaming pile of crap for 1st round picks.

 

“You don’t just need two guys, you need waves of guys,” said Shapiro. “And behind them, you need another wave of guys. I feel like that’s coming. It’s probably two to four years away that it’s going to get here, but when it comes, what we’ve continued to execute on whether it’s Andrew Tinnish leading us in international, we’ve got waves of guys coming. “I’m encouraged by that.”

 

- Mark Shapiro August 31st, 2017

 

Been more ripples than waves.

[Laika]

I definitely don't think the Jays system has been producing well

I just don't think it's worse than the JPR era

 

Completely different approaches.

 

College heavy drafting + holding everything vs. diverse prospect intake + lots of trading of prospects.

[Laika]

“You don’t just need two guys, you need waves of guys,” said Shapiro. “And behind them, you need another wave of guys. I feel like that’s coming. It’s probably two to four years away that it’s going to get here, but when it comes, what we’ve continued to execute on whether it’s Andrew Tinnish leading us in international, we’ve got waves of guys coming. “I’m encouraged by that.”

 

- Mark Shapiro August 31st, 2017

 

Been more ripples than waves.

 

bruh they have Kirk and Espinal. A pair of 5'5" waves.

[John_Havok]

bruh they have Kirk and Espinal. A pair of 5'5" waves.

 

Those waves were looking pretty good prior to 2023.

 

I think his wording of "waves" lends itself to people interpreting it as seeing multiple guys come up at the same time, then, maybe 2 years later another group of guys, etc. Reality is the first wave that had Vlad, Bo, Jansen, Romano and Biggio (pretty much all 2019) was a really big wave, but the tidal pool has thinned since, only been added to incrementally with 1 guy here (Kirk 2020), another guy or two there (Manoah and Espinal-2021), and basically a cluster of trades of the rest of those prospect waves. Pearson(2023) has finally showed up but not as the difference maker as envisioned, but still could be a valuable piece.

 

NOt sure where to put Mayza in there as he was with the Jays before anyone else in 2017, he just wasn't any good until 2021.

[max silver]

Those waves were looking pretty good prior to 2023.

 

I think his wording of "waves" lends itself to people interpreting it as seeing multiple guys come up at the same time, then, maybe 2 years later another group of guys, etc. Reality is the first wave that had Vlad, Bo, Jansen, Romano and Biggio (pretty much all 2019) was a really big wave, but the tidal pool has thinned since, only been added to incrementally with 1 guy here (Kirk 2020), another guy or two there (Manoah and Espinal-2021), and basically a cluster of trades of the rest of those prospect waves. Pearson(2023) has finally showed up but not as the difference maker as envisioned, but still could be a valuable piece.

 

NOt sure where to put Mayza in there as he was with the Jays before anyone else in 2017, he just wasn't any good until 2021.

 

Moreno graduated last season so he can be included. I think Tiedemann and Barger each had good shots to graduate this season before injuries slowed both of them down.

[BigCecil]

Man you guys are doing flips ^ to be gentle. Every team's system deals with injuries and covid year (s) and everything else.

 

That whole article: "Shapiro ‘still concerned’ about high levels of Blue Jays farm system" from 2017 was a bold shot at AA on how they were going to be different and he meant waves...as in waves. He even mentions beyond Bo and Vlad - "not just two"(AA signed Vlad). Objective analysis would conclude thats not been delivered on very well, even if you throw in a Kirk, Biggio and a Manoah at where they are in their careers.

[John_Havok]

Man you guys are doing flips ^ to be gentle. Every team's system deals with injuries and covid year (s) and everything else.

 

That whole article: "Shapiro ‘still concerned’ about high levels of Blue Jays farm system" from 2017 was a bold shot at AA on how they were going to be different and he meant waves...as in waves. He even mentions beyond Bo and Vlad - "not just two"(AA signed Vlad). Objective analysis would conclude thats not been delivered on very well, even if you throw in a Kirk, Biggio and a Manoah at where they are in their careers.

 

I think you'd be hard pressed to find any org that consistently has "waves" of prospects every few years. even the Rays, Dodgers... Houston. They dont really graduate multiple guys every few seasons either. Rays are probably the closest but even they tend to find success with reclamation projects that compliment their prospects and dont bring up multiple guys as core members of their team every other year. Averaging 1 guy every season that can contribute as a regular is pretty much every team's real goal, and very few actually achieve it.

[max silver]

Man you guys are doing flips ^ to be gentle. Every team's system deals with injuries and covid year (s) and everything else.

 

That whole article: "Shapiro ‘still concerned’ about high levels of Blue Jays farm system" from 2017 was a bold shot at AA on how they were going to be different and he meant waves...as in waves. He even mentions beyond Bo and Vlad - "not just two"(AA signed Vlad). Objective analysis would conclude thats not been delivered on very well, even if you throw in a Kirk, Biggio and a Manoah at where they are in their careers.

 

The current regime has definitely been better than AA when it comes to developing position player prospects, but has been extremely lacking when it comes to developing pitching. I think the key to the type of sustained contention envisioned is finally developing some of their own starting pitching instead of needing to pay free agency prices to fill out 4/5 of the major league rotation. Berrios was technically acquired by leveraging the minor league system but actually retaining him long term required a free agent type of contract.

 

What would you view as being a reasonable level of minor league development? The last 4 years has seen a pile of prospects either graduating to the big league team, or being used in trades to acquire impact talent at the major league level. I think using minor league assets to acquire good major league talent should also count as a win if sensible trades are made, but I certainly think the team needs to develop and keep more of these players to be able to supplement the roster with cost effective talent. These last few seasons have felt a little lean in terms of graduations, but there are a few potential impact prospects nearing major league readiness in Tiedemann and Orelvis so the cupboards aren't completely bare by any means. At the very least this front office has generally been adept at identifying which minor league players to keep vs which ones to ship out, so we haven't been forced to watch the likes of Noah Syndergaard bust onto the scene as top of the rotation monsters under this regime.