Former Blue Jays Thread

[Terminator]

When did I say that?? I was all for signing Conforto on a 1 yr deal this offseason. I 100% did not want Bellinger at that cost though

 

0 homers in May and a 53 wRC+. Looking like his April was an outlier.

[Laika]

It's easy to see why the org valued Varsho. His defense is exceptional - DRS loves him, UZR loves him, OAA is coming back around after a weird blip to start the year (now at 86th percentile), and interestingly just about every metric (in a much smaller sample size) thinks he's arguably better in CF than on the corners. The power is there, he's in 85th percentile for max EV (literally his first hit of the season with the team) and just hit a 446 ft nuke yesterday. His issue isn't even swing decisions necessarily IMO, while he could stand to chase less, his K/BB is fine for someone with his power.

 

He's a smart baserunner despite not being a burner on the bases. Sure he's fast enough to beat out an infield hit more than most players, but he picks good times to steal and has good instincts on the bases for taking the extra base.

 

His issue is simply that he doesn't barrel the ball enough. Is this straight up a hit tool/lack of hand-eye coordination? Or is there something in his swing or approach that prevents him from routinely hitting the ball hard? You would certainly hope it's the latter and he works with the coaches on it so that he's able to utilize his power more in-game. You would think it's not purely a hit tool thing since he's not striking out at crazy rates, and guys like Teoscar Hernandez who make terrible swing decisions and whiff a lot still barrel the ball pretty frequently. Certainly can't compare him to a Bo Bichette who has a 70 hit tool and can barrel balls in any direction or fight off any pitch because he has innate hand eye coordination and bat speed to make up for poor swing decisions.

 

It could be mechanical or hit tool related. His IFFB% since 2021 is 4th highest in baseball (qualified). Those are as bad as strikeouts. That could be a swing path issue, or just basic hit tool issue that doesn't manifest purely in strikeouts.

 

Some of the other high IFFB% guys are: Santander, Carlos Santana, Kike Hernandez, Arozarena, Chapman, Bellinger, Schoop, Profar... some good hit tools in that list but also some fringe hit tools. For the most part these guys have trouble hitting .250 or better.

 

Also, Nolan Arenado and Jose Ramirez show up on the list. Kind of interesting.

[Terminator]

It could be mechanical or hit tool related. His IFFB% since 2021 is 4th highest in baseball (qualified). Those are as bad as strikeouts. That could be a swing path issue, or just basic hit tool issue that doesn't manifest purely in strikeouts.

 

Some of the other high IFFB% guys are: Santander, Carlos Santana, Kike Hernandez, Arozarena, Chapman, Bellinger, Schoop, Profar... some good hit tools in that list but also some fringe hit tools. For the most part these guys have trouble hitting .250 or better.

 

Also, Nolan Arenado and Jose Ramirez show up on the list. Kind of interesting.

 

Not surprised he's on that list.

[Stangstag]

I'm joking around, you said(paraphrasing) "things could be worse, we could've signed Conforto" in jest awhile back when he was scuffling out of the gate, hence the tongue in cheek.

 

Lol jeez did I? I don’t even remember

[Stangstag]

It could be mechanical or hit tool related. His IFFB% since 2021 is 4th highest in baseball (qualified). Those are as bad as strikeouts. That could be a swing path issue, or just basic hit tool issue that doesn't manifest purely in strikeouts.

 

Some of the other high IFFB% guys are: Santander, Carlos Santana, Kike Hernandez, Arozarena, Chapman, Bellinger, Schoop, Profar... some good hit tools in that list but also some fringe hit tools. For the most part these guys have trouble hitting .250 or better.

 

Also, Nolan Arenado and Jose Ramirez show up on the list. Kind of interesting.

 

You can see very clearly what the issue is when watching the games, for whatever reason he can’t make contact on high fastballs. He swings underneath them. And when he does make contact, he clips the bottom of the ball and it goes for an infield popup.

 

Hopefully that’s an easy adjustment to make, slightly adjusting the hands/swing path or something. I have no idea. But he looks eerily similar to Biggio at times which is scary to think about.

[wamco]

Updated- bwar and FWAR

 

 

Kev k 2.3/1.4

Lgj. 1.7/1.3

Varsho 1.1/.4

Swanson .3/0

Teo .6/.4

Moreno. 1/.5

Jansen .1/.2

Kirk .4/.3

Whit. .9/.7

Belt .2/.3

 

Manoah. -.4. -.3

Gaus .8. 2.3

Berrios -.1. 1.1

Bassitt .7/.4

Kikuchi .3/0

[Orgfiller]

Updated- bwar and FWAR

 

 

Kev k 2.3/1.4

Lgj. 1.7/1.3

Varsho 1.1/.4

Swanson .3/0

Teo .6/.4

Moreno. 1/.5

Jansen .1/.2

Kirk .4/.3

Whit. .9/.7

Belt .2/.3

 

Manoah. -.4. -.3

Gaus .8. 2.3

Berrios -.1. 1.1

Bassitt .7/.4

Kikuchi .3/0

 

DRS LOVES Varsho so not surprising to see him rate much more highly there. On the other hand, Teo has somehow graded as a positive defender. Colour me skeptical on that one, but defensive metrics are what they are.

 

Moreno rates as a poor framer which is not accounted for in bWAR, thus the discrepancy there.

 

bWAR for pitchers is pretty dumn

[Omar]

[jaysblue]

Realistically KK will walk this offseason and Varsho will be the everyday CF going forward. Also opens up a corner to sign a better bat, someone like Conforto/Pederson… maybe Teo??? Haha

 

Trade for Conforto or Pederson at the trade deadline.

[Stangstag]

Trade for Conforto or Pederson at the trade deadline.

 

Definitely a possibility

[Jonn]

Been talks about Gurriel getting MVP votes as he continues his onslaught on Baseball. Dynamic game changing talent has propelled the Diamondbacks as real contenders to win the NL West crown.

 

Can’t forget the leadership young Gabriel Moreno is providing as well. Base runners freeze in terror when the ball is in his hands. And if he isn’t catching the ball he’s spraying it all over the Diamond with his bat.

[Olerud363]

Been talks about Gurriel getting MVP votes as he continues his onslaught on Baseball. Dynamic game changing talent has propelled the Diamondbacks as real contenders to win the NL West crown.

 

CanÂ’t forget the leadership young Gabriel Moreno is providing as well. Base runners freeze in terror when the ball is in his hands. And if he isnÂ’t catching the ball heÂ’s spraying it all over the Diamond with his bat.

 

Predicted final numbers

 

Gurriel .325 31 105

Moreno .329 11 88 (batting title) (baserunners destoryed 21/29 until they give up and don't try to steal 2nd half)

 

Varsho .182 14 48 (gets life advice from his MSP Colby Rasmus and takes a break or 2 to go the farm and think about things)

 

(MSP stands for Most Similar Player)

[Terminator]

 

Been talks about Gurriel getting MVP votes as he continues his onslaught on Baseball. Dynamic game changing talent has propelled the Diamondbacks as real contenders to win the NL West crown.

 

Can’t forget the leadership young Gabriel Moreno is providing as well. Base runners freeze in terror when the ball is in his hands. And if he isn’t catching the ball he’s spraying it all over the Diamond with his bat.

[wilko]

Been talks about Gurriel getting MVP votes as he continues his onslaught on Baseball. Dynamic game changing talent has propelled the Diamondbacks as real contenders to win the NL West crown.

 

Can’t forget the leadership young Gabriel Moreno is providing as well. Base runners freeze in terror when the ball is in his hands. And if he isn’t catching the ball he’s spraying it all over the Diamond with his bat.

 

[BigCecil]

Predicted final numbers

 

Gurriel .325 31 105

Moreno .329 11 88 (batting title) (baserunners destoryed 21/29 until they give up and don't try to steal 2nd half)

 

Varsho .182 14 48 (gets life advice from his MSP Colby Rasmus and takes a break or 2 to go the farm and think about things)

 

(MSP stands for Most Similar Player)

 

Ouch. Forgot about Colby. “This is how we roll” walk up song. Career 102 wRC+ LHH who ran into a few with two 4 WAR seasons. The K rate just kept climbing. He hit the first home run my son ever saw live in MLB at the RC on 2013 when he was 4. Hit the ROGERS sign in RF.

[Stangstag]

Ouch. Forgot about Colby. “This is how we roll” walk up song. Career 102 wRC+ LHH who ran into a few with two 4 WAR seasons. The K rate just kept climbing. He hit the first home run my son ever saw live in MLB at the RC on 2013 when he was 4. Hit the ROGERS sign in RF.

 

Varsho could very well be the same type of player and honestly i’d be ok with that. If he can average 3-4 WAR per season while he’s here that’s great

[BigCecil]

Varsho could very well be the same type of player and honestly i’d be ok with that. If he can average 3-4 WAR per season while he’s here that’s great

 

If he was 3-4 WAR every season you would have to be nuts not to take that.

[Olerud363]

Varsho could very well be the same type of player and honestly iÂ’d be ok with that. If he can average 3-4 WAR per season while heÂ’s here thatÂ’s great

 

Well Colby never averaged 4 WAR a season. He went like -1 (in 2 months), 1.2, 3.9, and 1.5 in his 3 and half years with the Jays. I don't think Jays will be happy with a Colby like performance with one decent year and hitting .220 with a .280 on base for the other years.

[Jonn]

I don't like the Rasmus and Varsho comparison not because I don't think Varsho could be that type if not better. But the Jays got Rasmus for pennies on the dollar and paid a premium for Varsho.

[Stangstag]

I don't like the Rasmus and Varsho comparison not because I don't think Varsho could be that type if not better. But the Jays got Rasmus for pennies on the dollar and paid a premium for Varsho.

 

Yeah definitely a difference, Jays bought low on Rasmus and bought high on Varsho.

[Stangstag]

Well Colby never averaged 4 WAR a season. He went like -1 (in 2 months), 1.2, 3.9, and 1.5 in his 3 and half years with the Jays. I don't think Jays will be happy with a Colby like performance with one decent year and hitting .220 with a .280 on base for the other years.

 

I was thinking more 2013-2015 Rasmus

[Masterbather]

I hated the Varsho trade when it happened, I'm certainly not loving it anymore now. I don't hate Varsho as a player, I f***ing hate what we traded to get him. Felt like a mistake from day one.

 

I always hoped I'd be wrong on that one, still hope I will be, my gut tells me I won't be.

[Stottlemyres_Bloody_Chin]

I hated the Varsho trade when it happened, I'm certainly not loving it anymore now. I don't hate Varsho as a player, I f***ing hate what we traded to get him. Felt like a mistake from day one.

 

I always hoped I'd be wrong on that one, still hope I will be, my gut tells me I won't be.

 

I feel exactly the same way.

[MikeM3]

Never liked that we dumped Joel Payamps

[L54]

Never liked that we dumped Joel Payamps

 

He would still have a 6 K/9 in Toronto so doesn’t really matter

 

Happy for you Joel

[Orgfiller]

Never liked that we dumped Joel Payamps

 

But why? He’s a generic middle reliever. Mediocre fastball, loopy slider that didn’t really generate swings and misses. He still doesn’t get chases or whiffs. Perfectly average reliever who wouldn’t add anything to the current bullpen.

[Orgfiller]

He would still have a 6 K/9 in Toronto so doesn’t really matter

 

Happy for you Joel

 

His current K rate is kind of a mirage. His whiff and chase rates are both below average, not much higher than they’ve ever been for him in previous seasons.

[MikeM3]

But why? He’s a generic middle reliever. Mediocre fastball, loopy slider that didn’t really generate swings and misses. He still doesn’t get chases or whiffs. Perfectly average reliever who wouldn’t add anything to the current bullpen.

 

I thought he was good for us. He was limiting hard hit, ev, xwoba. And had options. Then we just cut him out of nowhere. Just seemed senseless. Don't care that much but I just get perplexed by the process of our decisions sometimes.

[jaysblue]

Been talks about Gurriel getting MVP votes as he continues his onslaught on Baseball. Dynamic game changing talent has propelled the Diamondbacks as real contenders to win the NL West crown.

 

Can’t forget the leadership young Gabriel Moreno is providing as well. Base runners freeze in terror when the ball is in his hands. And if he isn’t catching the ball he’s spraying it all over the Diamond with his bat.

 

If Gurriel wins NL MVP and Moreno wins a batting title, the Hurl will go streaking at the Rogers Centre.

[wilko]

I thought he was good for us. He was limiting hard hit, ev, xwoba. And had options. Then we just cut him out of nowhere. Just seemed senseless. Don't care that much but I just get perplexed by the process of our decisions sometimes.

 

The Jays dumped him because he wasn't vaccinated.