Fire John Schneider

[jaysblue]

Yeah, he talked about it in detail on his podcast. Miss that guy, loved him.

 

It really makes you appreciate the 2015 season and the days Gibby was around.

 

The managers Atkins has brought in - Montoyo and Schneider - both seemed like just puppets and didn't have the respect in the clubhouse. Both are beta's.

[BigCecil]

After listening to a lot of the players reactions it really seems like JD & RA have lost the trust in the dugout. Barrios can't trust John to make the right decision even if it wasn't John's final call.

 

I hope there was a good reason that Click and Mattingly were made part of the inner circle for a reason

 

So much irony in the anger at JS. The decision to pull Berrios was not his call and we scored 1 run in 18 innings. Last year the FO fired Charlie who seemed to be blamed for a lot of things. Maybe the issue(s) isn’t the rotating Managers?

[The Cats Ass]

So much irony in the anger at JS. The decision to pull Berrios was not his call and we scored 1 run in 18 innings. Last year the FO fired Charlie who seemed to be blamed for a lot of things. Maybe the issue(s) isn’t the rotating Managers?

 

It was probably decided before the game to pull Berrios at that spot. I still blame Schneider though, is the front office calling the dugout during the game to direct Schneider. There must have been an abort button on this game plan if needed. If Berrios was throwing a perfect game up to that point do they still pull him?

[saskjayfan]

It was probably decided before the game to pull Berrios at that spot. I still blame Schneider though, is the front office calling the dugout during the game to direct Schneider. There must have been an abort button on this game plan if needed. If Berrios was throwing a perfect game up to that point do they still pull him?

 

With all the analytics the Blue Jays have, how is it possible Dalton Varsho wasn't pinch hit for in the last AB of the year. Dude has not been able to handle high velocity all year. Would Davis Schneider have gotten a hit or a homer. Probably not, but the numbers suggested he had a better chance than Varsho.

[Nexii]

The problem isn't analytics, it's that the Jays don't have good analytics

[Stangstag]

With all the analytics the Blue Jays have, how is it possible Dalton Varsho wasn't pinch hit for in the last AB of the year. Dude has not been able to handle high velocity all year. Would Davis Schneider have gotten a hit or a homer. Probably not, but the numbers suggested he had a better chance than Varsho.

 

They seemed extremely hesitant to use any of the rookie guys in big spots.

 

Just the typical “these are our main guys, the numbers will come around” mentality that never came to fruition.

[saskjayfan]

The problem isn't analytics, it's that the Jays don't have good analytics

 

The problem is the application of analytics. Analytics carry's you through 162. 1 game is not a sample size and the variance is too high. You can't go into games with pre-determined plans. When a pitcher is on and locating like Berrios was you don't pull him out. They need to develop in game analytics if they are going to go that far. The swinging strike rate plus called strike rate, exit velocity, ground ball percentage etc would have suggested don't pull the pitcher. Anyone who's watched baseball all their life knew that was the wrong decision. Not giving in to Lewis was the right decision. He's the one guy on the twins that you can live with the walk. It was stupid. We wonder if we could have had a scoreless game going into the 10th. We may still have lost, but the bitter taste in our mouth this morning would have been different if the appropriate decisions had been made.

[Nexii]

The problem is the application of analytics. Analytics carry's you through 162. 1 game is not a sample size and the variance is too high. You can't go into games with pre-determined plans. When a pitcher is on and locating like Berrios was you don't pull him out. They need to develop in game analytics if they are going to go that far. The swinging strike rate plus called strike rate, exit velocity, ground ball percentage etc would have suggested don't pull the pitcher. Anyone who's watched baseball all their life knew that was the wrong decision. Not giving in to Lewis was the right decision. He's the one guy on the twins that you can live with the walk. It was stupid. We wonder if we could have had a scoreless game going into the 10th. We may still have lost, but the bitter taste in our mouth this morning would have been different if the appropriate decisions had been made.

 

More importantly I'd say that you need to communicate the general plan with the players. Last thing you want is them thinking about a shocking decision over the game itself.

 

Really feels like there's a big disconnect between management and the players

[BatFlip]

The problem is the application of analytics. Analytics carry's you through 162. 1 game is not a sample size and the variance is too high. You can't go into games with pre-determined plans. When a pitcher is on and locating like Berrios was you don't pull him out. They need to develop in game analytics if they are going to go that far. The swinging strike rate plus called strike rate, exit velocity, ground ball percentage etc would have suggested don't pull the pitcher. Anyone who's watched baseball all their life knew that was the wrong decision. Not giving in to Lewis was the right decision. He's the one guy on the twins that you can live with the walk. It was stupid. We wonder if we could have had a scoreless game going into the 10th. We may still have lost, but the bitter taste in our mouth this morning would have been different if the appropriate decisions had been made.

 

 

Couldn't agree more.

[BatFlip]

It was probably decided before the game to pull Berrios at that spot. I still blame Schneider though, is the front office calling the dugout during the game to direct Schneider. There must have been an abort button on this game plan if needed. If Berrios was throwing a perfect game up to that point do they still pull him?

 

 

Yup. Even if you decided that's what you're going to do beforehand, and it's a perfectly reasonable strategy on paper (or in excel), you STILL need to have the flexibility to change depending on the in-game developments. That was a moment where JS really has to think twice and make the right call. I find it very, very, hard to believe that JS isn't allowed to have the final say on the Berrios pull.

[BTS]

The problem is the application of analytics. Analytics carry's you through 162. 1 game is not a sample size and the variance is too high. You can't go into games with pre-determined plans. When a pitcher is on and locating like Berrios was you don't pull him out. They need to develop in game analytics if they are going to go that far. The swinging strike rate plus called strike rate, exit velocity, ground ball percentage etc would have suggested don't pull the pitcher. Anyone who's watched baseball all their life knew that was the wrong decision. Not giving in to Lewis was the right decision. He's the one guy on the twins that you can live with the walk. It was stupid. We wonder if we could have had a scoreless game going into the 10th. We may still have lost, but the bitter taste in our mouth this morning would have been different if the appropriate decisions had been made.

 

This seems pretty accurate. Every team in baseball (except maybe the Rockies) employs nerds that would would be aware of the TTO effect, and would be aware of stats indicating that pulling Berrios would be the right move. And yet it's basically impossible to imagine TB, LAD, or ATL pulling a Berrios-caliber starter after 3 innings when he's throwing gas. Toronto probably needs better nerds. Or a better leader of the nerds. Or a better liaison between the nerds and non-nerds.

[Governator]

The problem is the application of analytics. Analytics carry's you through 162. 1 game is not a sample size and the variance is too high. You can't go into games with pre-determined plans. When a pitcher is on and locating like Berrios was you don't pull him out. They need to develop in game analytics if they are going to go that far. The swinging strike rate plus called strike rate, exit velocity, ground ball percentage etc would have suggested don't pull the pitcher. Anyone who's watched baseball all their life knew that was the wrong decision. Not giving in to Lewis was the right decision. He's the one guy on the twins that you can live with the walk. It was stupid. We wonder if we could have had a scoreless game going into the 10th. We may still have lost, but the bitter taste in our mouth this morning would have been different if the appropriate decisions had been made.

 

 

Nailed it...

 

It's also worth noting that even if he looked a LITTLE bit off that inning (which he wasn't), bringing in a starter with a runner on, not even a clean inning is a horrible decision in itself that isn't talked about. Kikuchi pitched as a starter in every game he played all season, in fact 122 of his 132 MLB career games over 5 seasons. It's literally why you have a bullpen and a lefty specialist.

[Olerud363]

Nailed it...

 

It's also worth noting that even if he looked a LITTLE bit off that inning (which he wasn't), bringing in a starter with a runner on, not even a clean inning is a horrible decision in itself that isn't talked about.

 

Did they even use an opener once this year? Or a planned piggy back? If they are considering using these strategies should be using them in the regular season make sure they know how the players will react.

 

I would actually be interested to see them go with this kind of thing regular for an entire year and see how it works in the long term, in terms of results, player buy-in etc. I'd piggy back Kikuchi/Pearson/Tiemerman/White/Manoah at times, use openers, hell as crazy as it seems I'd piggy back Gausman or open for him.

 

Start Kikuchi 25 games, relieve 15 so he has experience with coming in as a reliever with a guy on base. Piggy back Tiederman, White, Ryu, Manoah, Pearson to get them started and control their innings. Just make it a regular part of the strategy if it is to be used in playoff games.

[L54]

This seems pretty accurate. Every team in baseball (except maybe the Rockies) employs nerds that would would be aware of the TTO effect, and would be aware of stats indicating that pulling Berrios would be the right move. And yet it's basically impossible to imagine TB, LAD, or ATL pulling a Berrios-caliber starter after 3 innings when he's throwing gas. Toronto probably needs better nerds. Or a better leader of the nerds. Or a better liaison between the nerds and non-nerds.

 

There’s no way those guys are pulling him absolutely none. Where do we get off on being so advanced and ahead of the curve that we’re going to decimate the pen and bring in the guy who would theoretically start Friday to piggyback the starter who is dealing? It’s so mind numbingly stupid that I have lost all faith in anyone above the players

 

Of course the offense sucks ass too but talk about the inability to read the room.

 

I don’t want an old school manager I want a guy with balls to say no I’m not making that decision because it’s stupid go ahead and fire me

 

Some people still can’t understand these are human beings with emotions and not a simulation. I hate the way baseball is currently trending

[polar bear]

It really makes you appreciate the 2015 season and the days Gibby was around.

 

The managers Atkins has brought in - Montoyo and Schneider - both seemed like just puppets and didn't have the respect in the clubhouse. Both are beta's.

Beta than who ?

[glory]

Yeah no chance a smart front office handles Berrios the way the Jays did. If 2023 Manoah was starting, then absolutely go batter to batter, but Berrios had a 3 WAR season with a track record of being that caliber of starter and looked great through 3. It was also likely demoralizing to the players, especially if they aren’t or weren’t briefed about it beforehand (maybe they were, but Merrifield’s quote didn’t seem too flattering).

 

Atkins is the key to real change. Replacing Schneider is meaningless if Atkins is still there because the analytics will stay the same and he will just hire another “happy to be there” guy who will blindly follow what he’s told. Cut off the head.

[L54]

Yeah no chance a smart front office handles Berrios the way the Jays did. If 2023 Manoah was starting, then absolutely go batter to batter, but Berrios had a 3 WAR season with a track record of being that caliber of starter and looked great through 3. It was also likely demoralizing to the players, especially if they aren’t or weren’t briefed about it beforehand (maybe they were, but Merrifield’s quote didn’t seem too flattering).

 

Atkins is the key to real change. Replacing Schneider is meaningless if Atkins is still there because the analytics will stay the same and he will just hire another “happy to be there” guy who will blindly follow what he’s told. Cut off the head.

 

Ya you’re exactly right. Doesn’t matter if JS is gone if Atkins is still wearing his turtle necks to the ball park.

[John_Havok]

Did they even use an opener once this year? Or a planned piggy back? If they are considering using these strategies should be using them in the regular season make sure they know how the players will react.

 

I would actually be interested to see them go with this kind of thing regular for an entire year and see how it works in the long term, in terms of results, player buy-in etc. I'd piggy back Kikuchi/Pearson/Tiemerman/White/Manoah at times, use openers, hell as crazy as it seems I'd piggy back Gausman or open for him.

 

Start Kikuchi 25 games, relieve 15 so he has experience with coming in as a reliever with a guy on base. Piggy back Tiederman, White, Ryu, Manoah, Pearson to get them started and control their innings. Just make it a regular part of the strategy if it is to be used in playoff games.

 

Yes, they did with Richards 3 times who was absolutely nailz while doing it too. Otherwise no, every pitcher who started the other 159 games were SPs. Gausman, Berrios, Manoah, Bassitt, Ryu and Kikuchi and Parsons (using the term SP with Parsons loosely)

[Doubleplay21]

Schneider is the good company man

Please do not insult him

He was only doing what he was told.

[BigCecil]

For what its worth just listening to David Sampson on Bunkis pod.

 

Said this it was a "Mark and Ross decision" telling JS to pull Berrios to Kooch all designed before the game. Not JS's decision. Its a directive. He also said the logic and math behind it was sound. It just didn't work. This seems obvious to me. Sampson is a pretty fan of Shapiro.

 

At the end of the day we didn't score any runs.

[Brownie19]

For what its worth just listening to David Sampson on Bunkis pod.

 

Said this it was a "Mark and Ross decision" telling JS to pull Berrios to Kooch all designed before the game. Not JS's decision. Its a directive. He also said the logic and math behind it was sound. It just didn't work. This seems obvious to me. Sampson is a pretty fan of Shapiro.

 

At the end of the day we didn't score any runs.

 

Fans really struggle with the reality that even moves that are logical and sound fail some percentage of the time.

[Stangstag]

Fans really struggle with the reality that even moves that are logical and sound fail some percentage of the time.

 

Right, and those failures are magnified in the postseason.

 

I don’t really like the move with Berrios, but like you’ve been saying its not the reason we lost.

 

Wonder how strong the blowback on the Berrios move would’ve been if we win the game 3-2.

[Governator]

No analytics can convince me it's a +EV move to put a starter in a reliever position with a runner on base, who hasn't done any relief pitching all season (and only a handful of times in his career). It's an obvious red flag to whatever math they ran. This isn't a video game where that works.

 

And now that I'm more aware this was an Atkins decision, I stand by that the one responsible should be fired for this. Schneider should have said hell no because he might lose his job for them to save face anyway.

[Stangstag]

No analytics can convince me it's a +EV move to put a starter in a reliever position with a runner on base, who hasn't done any relief pitching all season (and only a handful of times in his career). It's an obvious red flag to whatever math they ran. This isn't a video game where that works.

 

I would guess they don’t even have a way to factor that into the equation. They probably see it as a non-issue. Player A/Player B situation.

 

And therein lies the problem.

[Omar]

For what its worth just listening to David Sampson on Bunkis pod.

 

Said this it was a "Mark and Ross decision" telling JS to pull Berrios to Kooch all designed before the game. Not JS's decision. Its a directive. He also said the logic and math behind it was sound. It just didn't work. This seems obvious to me. Sampson is a pretty fan of Shapiro.

 

At the end of the day we didn't score any runs.

 

Sampson is one of the boys. He won't say a bad word about Shapiro. Moreover he is wrong.

[BatFlip]

No analytics can convince me it's a +EV move to put a starter in a reliever position with a runner on base, who hasn't done any relief pitching all season (and only a handful of times in his career). It's an obvious red flag to whatever math they ran. This isn't a video game where that works.

 

And now that I'm more aware this was an Atkins decision, I stand by that the one responsible should be fired for this. Schneider should have said hell no because he might lose his job for them to save face anyway.

 

Couldn't agree more.

[Governator]

I would guess they don’t even have a way to factor that into the equation. They probably see it as a non-issue. Player A/Player B situation.

 

And therein lies the problem.

 

Yea it's a major overlooked problem. It's one thing to hire a bunch of analytical data nerds, but it's another to take the data given to you and be able to make a logical coherent decision. Atkins was a minor league player himself, he's been around the game his whole life and should know that scenario is just playing with fire. At the very very least, wait for a fresh inning for Kikuchi. You can go to your BP in that scenario if you felt the need to throw a lefty and salvage the inning unscathed (That's kinda their job) but going to Kikuchi in untested waters was just plain dumb. He didn't even last 2 innings, so what did they gain out of it? I'd rather be tied 0-0 in the 10th than down 2-0 in the 9th..

 

 

Edit:

Also while I'm ranting, VLAD needs to get benched going forward after making boneheaded plays so it's driven in his head what his role is on this team. A manager needs to be able to set the tone on young players on what they expect out of them and what they never want to see. Getting picked off at second with a runner in front of you during the most important at-bat of the season is just inexcusable. It's actually embarrassing for the whole team that worked so hard all season for them to see that from their franchise player.

Edited October 5, 2023 by Governator

[Omar]

No, no Gov. It was a great move and having Kikuchi inherit one base runner and have two eventually come around to score is both logical and an expected outcome. It is damn dear optimal.

[Terminator]

Yea it's a major overlooked problem. It's one thing to hire a bunch of analytical data nerds, but it's another to take the data given to you and be able to make a logical coherent decision. Atkins was a minor league player himself, he's been around the game his whole life and should know that scenario is just playing with fire. At the very very least, wait for a fresh inning for Kikuchi. You can go to your BP in that scenario if you felt the need to throw a lefty and salvage the inning unscathed (That's kinda their job) but going to Kikuchi in untested waters was just plain dumb. He didn't even last 2 innings, so what did they gain out of it? I'd rather be tied 0-0 in the 10th than down 2-0 in the 9th..

 

 

Edit:

Also while I'm ranting, VLAD needs to get benched going forward after making boneheaded plays so it's driven in his head what his role is on this team. A manager needs to be able to set the tone on young players on what they expect out of them and what they never want to see. Getting picked off at second with a runner in front of you during the most important at-bat of the season is just inexcusable. It's actually embarrassing for the whole team that worked so hard all season for them to see that from their franchise player.

 

On top of it they had to win Game 3! So why not abandon that plan because Berrios is dealing and then look to deploy it in Game 3?

[tazsub3]

On top of it they had to win Game 3! So why not abandon that plan because Berrios is dealing and then look to deploy it in Game 3?

 

Logic don’t apply to these clowns. Let’s see how many players now choose to play for the jays when their ace can’t get more then 3 inning when dealing cause the Gm decided