Toronto Blue Jays Roster Discussion (2022)

[Terminator]

He's clearly the 3rd option and I don't see the team carrying 3 catchers. He needs to be traded. Otherwise I don't see how we handle this other than putting him in AAA. I guess we could start with him in the bigs and wait a couple of weeks until he gets hurt and then go with Moreno.

[Stangstag]

 

Term's working hard for TOTY as he knows the yearly award voting is right around the corner.

 

Loll

[Jimcanuck]

Term's trolling game isn't subtle enough. Not getting my vote.

[Terminator]

You know what you guys, I probably went too hard on the Jansen stuff but it was pretty good while it lasted! Got some classics in there plus it is rooted in the truth that he is the guy that should get dealt.

 

That said, I've been cooking up some great stuff lately and I think you guys are REALLY going to like it. Even you, Jim.

[Stangstag]

He's clearly the 3rd option and I don't see the team carrying 3 catchers. He needs to be traded. Otherwise I don't see how we handle this other than putting him in AAA. I guess we could start with him in the bigs and wait a couple of weeks until he gets hurt and then go with Moreno.

 

Can Kirk play LF maybe??

[Carlos Danger]

Moreno, Espinal, Gurriel (TV 78.8) for Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman (TV 74.0)

 

Sign Carlos Rodon

Sign Taylor Rogers

 

1. LF Springer

2. 2B Edman

3. 1B Vladdy

4. C/DH Kirk

5. SS Bo

6. RF Teo

7. 3B Chapman

8. C/DH Jansen

9. CF Carlson

 

UT Merrifield

UT Biggio

OF Lopez

OF Tapia / Zimmer (lol)

 

SP Manoah

SP Gausman

SP Rodon

SP Berrios

SP Kikuchi / White

 

CL Romano

SU Rogers

SU Garcia

MR Bass

MR Cimber

MR Pearson

MR Mayza

MR Pop / Richards / Merryweather

LR Kikuchi / White

 

I would do that trade in a heat beat!!

[Terminator]

Ok so all trolling aside, the highly reputable Steamer Projections are out on Fangraphs for 2023 and the Jansen fanboys have some serious explaining to do.

 

-Kirk projects to slash .285/.371/.467 with 4.5 WAR in 126 games.

-Jansen projects to slash .260/.316/.455 and 2.5 WAR in 116 games.

-Moreno projects to slash .267/.327/414 and 0.5 WAR in just 15 games. That's kind of crazy because if you extrapolate that out over 130 games that would 4.3 WAR.

 

These numbers seem to back up what I've been saying all offseason. The difference in talent between Kirk and Jansen is about the same difference between Teoscar Hernandez (projects for 2.2 WAR) and a replacement level player we could pull from AAA.

[Spanky99]

I don't see the 2023 projections?

[Olerud363]

Ok so all trolling aside, the highly reputable Steamer Projections are out on Fangraphs for 2023 and the Jansen fanboys have some serious explaining to do.

 

-Kirk projects to slash .285/.371/.467 with 4.5 WAR in 126 games.

-Jansen projects to slash .260/.316/.455 and 2.5 WAR in 116 games.

-Moreno projects to slash .267/.327/414 and 0.5 WAR in just 15 games. That's kind of crazy because if you extrapolate that out over 130 games that would 4.3 WAR.

 

These numbers seem to back up what I've been saying all offseason. The difference in talent between Kirk and Jansen is about the same difference between Teoscar Hernandez (projects for 2.2 WAR) and a replacement level player we could pull from AAA.

 

The projection system is just assuming everyone under 27 improves a bit on their lifetime averages, everyone 27-30 stays the same, and after 30 they decline a bit.

 

Vladimir Guerrero JR is projected to hit .290 .359 .535 with 4.8 WAR. I made that up but guarantee you it is like within 1% of his real projection. It's that simple.

 

So these projection systems just assume young guys improve. However the geniuses on this board have the real scoop, as they factor in obesity levels, eye sight improvements and the scouting reports they made from the 500 level.

[Captain_Obvious]

Ok so all trolling aside, the highly reputable Steamer Projections are out on Fangraphs for 2023 and the Jansen fanboys have some serious explaining to do.

 

-Kirk projects to slash .285/.371/.467 with 4.5 WAR in 126 games.

-Jansen projects to slash .260/.316/.455 and 2.5 WAR in 116 games.

-Moreno projects to slash .267/.327/414 and 0.5 WAR in just 15 games. That's kind of crazy because if you extrapolate that out over 130 games that would 4.3 WAR.

 

These numbers seem to back up what I've been saying all offseason. The difference in talent between Kirk and Jansen is about the same difference between Teoscar Hernandez (projects for 2.2 WAR) and a replacement level player we could pull from AAA.

 

Really? You gotta do better buddy.

 

1- These are last year's projection numbers for the 2022 season.

2- Projection systems do not dig into underlying metrics and fixed glasses. They look at overall MLB players historical performances and predict outcome based on comparable players.

3- If anything, the 2022 projections prove that Jansen is underappreciated. He actually exceed the total 2022 projected WAR in just 54% of the 2022 projected PAs. His performance was basically twice as good as what was projected in the games he played. The only blemish was being injured.

[Terminator]

I don't see the 2023 projections?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alejandro-kirk/22581/stats?position=C/DH

 

Are you as blind as Danny "Mr. Magoo" Jansen? Go to his page and look. It has their 2023 projections right there.

[Terminator]

Really? You gotta do better buddy.

 

1- These are last year's projection numbers for the 2022 season.

2- Projection systems do not dig into underlying metrics and fixed glasses. They look at overall MLB players historical performances and predict outcome based on comparable players.

3- If anything, the 2022 projections prove that Jansen is underappreciated. He actually exceed the total 2022 projected WAR in just 54% of the 2022 projected PAs. His performance was basically twice as good as what was projected in the games he played. The only blemish was being injured.

 

1. Wrong. It's the 2023 projections. No wonder you like Jansen so much, neither one of you can read small print.

2. So you think you are smarter than Steamer?

3. Nope, you're wrong it's the 2023 projections so this whole point of yours is whack.

[Solaxys]

He improves his baserunning by 5 points?! Damn, 2023 Kirk gonna be zoomin.

 

They're giving Vlad a 160 wRC+ with 40 HR year projection. Bo holding stead at 129 wRC+.

 

Damn Manoah projected to end the year with 4.11 ERA/4.08 FIP. We f***edd.... Hell, Kikuchi is projected to be better than Manoah next year!

[Terminator]

I thought I was done with this topic but when I found out I was completely vindicated by Steamer I couldn't resist. Jansen fanboys once again on defense.

 

Kirk >>>>> Jansen

 

I know it, Steamer knows it and the All-Star voters know it. The only people that don't know it are the disgusting Jansen fanboys on this board. Hilarious how you all are in denial, "But IT'S the 2o22 numbers, Terminator!!!1 It's AIN't the '23 NuMBERS!!1"

 

LMAO check those fangraphs pages again boys and take a nice big swig of that dose of reality you're getting. Courtesy of The Sheriff.

Edited November 8, 2022 by Terminator

[Stangstag]

I thought I was done with this topic but when I found out I was completely vindicated by Steamer I couldn't resist. Jansen fanboys once again on defense.

 

Kirk >>>>> Jansen

 

I know it, Steamer knows it and the All-Star voters know it. The only people that don't know it are the disgusting Jansen fanboys on this board. Hilarious how you all are in denial, "But IT'S the 2o22 numbers, Terminator!!!1 It's AIN't the '23 NuMBERS!!1"

 

LMAO check those fangraphs pages again boys and take a nice big swig of that dose of reality you're getting. Courtesy of The Sheriff.

 

Your brain is so small you fail to comprehend that since Jansen has worse projections (AND less control) he will bring back far less in a potential trade.

[Stangstag]

He improves his baserunning by 5 points?! Damn, 2023 Kirk gonna be zoomin.

 

They're giving Vlad a 160 wRC+ with 40 HR year projection. Bo holding stead at 129 wRC+.

 

Damn Manoah projected to end the year with 4.11 ERA/4.08 FIP. We f***edd.... Hell, Kikuchi is projected to be better than Manoah next year!

 

Actually?? Yikes

[Spanky99]

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alejandro-kirk/22581/stats?position=C/DH

 

Are you as blind as Danny "Mr. Magoo" Jansen? Go to his page and look. It has their 2023 projections right there.

 

Oh, I went to the projections tab, nothing there. It's up now ya troglodyte, stop trolling, thanks.

Edited November 8, 2022 by Spanky99

[Spanky99]

He improves his baserunning by 5 points?! Damn, 2023 Kirk gonna be zoomin.

 

They're giving Vlad a 160 wRC+ with 40 HR year projection. Bo holding stead at 129 wRC+.

 

Damn Manoah projected to end the year with 4.11 ERA/4.08 FIP. We f***edd.... Hell, Kikuchi is projected to be better than Manoah next year!

 

That's because steamer is geared towards FIP, if he's the FIP beater we've seen, this doesn't matter.

[Terminator]

Your brain is so small you fail to comprehend that since Jansen has worse projections (AND less control) he will bring back far less in a potential trade.

 

Ok genius we’ve got a 23 year old All-Star who projects for 5 WAR and you want to trade him because he’ll bring more value back? Lmao what comparable value are you going to get? Let’s hear some of these genius trade ideas you’ve got.

[Stangstag]

Ok genius we’ve got a 23 year old All-Star who projects for 5 WAR and you want to trade him because he’ll bring more value back? Lmao what comparable value are you going to get? Let’s hear some of these genius trade ideas you’ve got.

 

You said yourself, Moreno projects for 4.3 WAR over 130 games. He doesn’t reach that if Kirk and Jansen are both still on the team.

 

Ideal scenario is to trade Kirk to free up the C/DH spot. For a SP would probably make sense. Teo/Springer/Lourdes/LHH acquisition to rotate the DH spot.

 

Its really not difficult to understand.

[Stangstag]

And for the record, i’m not married to the idea of trading Kirk. A Jansen or Moreno trade could make sense too.

 

Hell I would be all for trading ANYONE on the team if the return is good and if Ross can construct a better roster as a result.

 

The team as-is relies too heavily on RH power bats, a lot of high K guys. The rotation is top heavy. Bullpen is mediocre. Lots of ways to improve the pitching staff and diversify the lineup.

[Horses Fart]

One question, how much cash do we have to spend?

[Terminator]

You said yourself, Moreno projects for 4.3 WAR over 130 games. He doesn’t reach that if Kirk and Jansen are both still on the team.

 

Ideal scenario is to trade Kirk to free up the C/DH spot. For a SP would probably make sense. Teo/Springer/Lourdes/LHH acquisition to rotate the DH spot.

 

Its really not difficult to understand.

 

Yeah it’s easy to sit there on your high horse and say we should trade a 23 year All-Star C with 4 years of control left who projects for 5 WAR next season because he’ll bring back a good SP. But who are you trading him for? Players like this don’t grow on trees. So please enlighten me on this “not very difficult to understand” trade youve got cooked up. I’m all ears.

[Stangstag]

Yeah it’s easy to sit there on your high horse and say we should trade a 23 year All-Star C with 4 years of control left who projects for 5 WAR next season because he’ll bring back a good SP. But who are you trading him for? Players like this don’t grow on trees. So please enlighten me on this “not very difficult to understand” trade youve got cooked up. I’m all ears.

 

Still not getting it.

[Ray]

One question, how much cash do we have to spend?

 

Probably non tender Raimel Tapia ($5.2M) and Bradley Zimmer ($1.3M), but pick up Bass’s option ($3M). That’ll put our payroll at $187.5M and luxury tax hit at $213.5M (1st luxury tax threshold is $233M).

 

We probably have $17M to spend as of now to avoid the luxury tax. Unless we move another contract. Either way, I’d guess we make most moves via trade as opposed to free agency.

[Captain_Obvious]

Still not getting it.

 

I do not believe projections account for body shape either. I wish Terminator was another team's GM so that he can overpay for Kirk. Based on these projections, we should be able to land Corbin Carroll easily using Kirk. Arizona might need to add more.

[Jimcanuck]

I do not believe projections account for body shape either. I wish Terminator was another team's GM so that he can overpay for Kirk. Based on these projections, we should be able to land Corbin Carroll easily using Kirk. Arizona might need to add more.

 

Kirk for Carroll 1:1 in a heartbeat, but I doubt Arizona would.

[Olerud363]

Kirk for Carroll 1:1 in a heartbeat, but I doubt Arizona would.

 

Carroll has a surprisingly low projection. Possibly because most of his best work was done in a double a hitters park.

 

According to projections Kirk > Carroll... Moreno > Carroll

[Olerud363]

I do not believe projections account for body shape either. I wish Terminator was another team's GM so that he can overpay for Kirk. Based on these projections, we should be able to land Corbin Carroll easily using Kirk. Arizona might need to add more.

 

It wouldn't be hard to put in body type in projections. The projection just takes every player in the history of baseball, and uses their stats to model how players develop. You can just as easily put height and weight in it, as you could age or hr rate.

 

Not sure if the publicly available projections use height and weight or not.... I am sure each teams proprietary ones do. So will be hard to rip them off, by sending them Kirk, cuz if fat guys are a bad bet, all the teams know.

 

as fans it's fun to look at past players and try to figure out what the truly fat guys do.

 

How many truly fat guys can people remember who were good at 23?? Fielder? Sandoval? Who else. Seems the consensus is fat guys do OK until late 20s, so it doesn't matter for Kirk for a few years.

[Stangstag]

It wouldn't be hard to put in body type in projections. The projection just takes every player in the history of baseball, and uses their stats to model how players develop. You can just as easily put height and weight in it, as you could age or hr rate.

 

Not sure if the publicly available projections use height and weight or not.... I am sure each teams proprietary ones do. So will be hard to rip them off, by sending them Kirk, cuz if fat guys are a bad bet, all the teams know.

 

as fans it's fun to look at past players and try to figure out what the truly fat guys do.

 

How many truly fat guys can people remember who were good at 23?? Fielder? Sandoval? Who else. Seems the consensus is fat guys do OK until late 20s, so it doesn't matter for Kirk for a few years.

 

Yeah the weight/body thing for Kirk probably isn’t a problem until he’s already a free agent. He’s slow as f*** but it is what it is. My question is can he play C more often and DH less. Because I believe we’ll need that DH spot to keep guys like Springer/Teo/Lourdes/Vlad/etc in the lineup like we did in 2022