Toronto Blue Jays Roster Discussion (2022)

[Stangstag]

Well actually the Astros have been worried about Defense only at the catcher position, they probably wouldn’t give up anything for a guy like Kirk or Moreno. Its easy to sign a glove-first noodle bat catcher in free agency on the cheap

[keggy]

Bichette led the team in fWAR and they made the playoffs while winning 92 games.

 

There are better places to upgrade the team than SS, and I sure as heck wouldn't spend our excess catcher capital upgrading a position that doesn't really need an upgrade lol

 

By that logic Vlad would still be at 3B.

[THANOS]

Kirk for Luis Garcia??

 

That's no where close to fair value. Kirk was worth almost double the fWAR last season.

 

Kirk for Javier is much closer. Kirk was worth more fWAR, is a year younger and has 1 extra year of control. It's still much closer.

[max silver]

I don't understand how he only hit .228 with that profile.

 

He's left handed, pull heavy, hits the ball on the ground a lot, and gets shifted against over half the time. The shift ban in 2023 should help improve the batting average a bit.

[Stangstag]

That's no where close to fair value. Kirk was worth almost double the fWAR last season.

 

Kirk for Javier is much closer. Kirk was worth more fWAR, is a year younger and has 1 extra year of control. It's still much closer.

 

Trade value site actually has Luis Garcia as more valuable than Kirk. Its close

[Terminator]

Kirk for Luis Garcia??

 

Not bad other than the fact that it's a ~2.5 WAR downgrade. If you're into trades like that we could probably just give them Santiago Espinal for a no-name AAA player.

[Stangstag]

Not bad other than the fact that it's a ~2.5 WAR downgrade. If you're into trades like that we could probably just give them Santiago Espinal for a no-name AAA player.

 

Your homerism is showing.

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Has their values as close to equal, with Garcia’s value actually being higher than Kirk.

[Laika]

Your homerism is showing.

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Has their values as close to equal, with Garcia’s value actually being higher than Kirk.

 

Probably their projection model is not up to date.

 

Website also has no info on their projection model other than to say they "do their own" and don't share how they do it.

 

If you look at current projections for these guys Steamer (recently put on Fangraphs) has Kirk as twice the player as Garcia in 2023.

 

I don't see how Garcia is worth even 75% of Kirk. Common sense! He's a pitcher!!!

[Stangstag]

Probably their projection model is not up to date.

 

Website also has no info on their projection model other than to say they "do their own" and don't share how they do it.

 

If you look at current projections for these guys Steamer (recently put on Fangraphs) has Kirk as twice the player as Garcia in 2023.

 

I don't see how Garcia is worth even 75% of Kirk. Common sense! He's a pitcher!!!

 

I don’t really get it either, but I thought this was the site everyone uses to approximate trade values.

[Laika]

I don’t really get it either, but I thought this was the site everyone uses to approximate trade values.

 

It's just an extremely rough tool

 

Most of the time it's reasonable enough but in this instance it's clearly wrong

 

I wish there was a way to do this on Fangraphs. It would not be hard for them to build out. Maybe where you could select the projection system to use.

[Stangstag]

It's just an extremely rough tool

 

Most of the time it's reasonable enough but in this instance it's clearly wrong

 

I wish there was a way to do this on Fangraphs. It would not be hard for them to build out. Maybe where you could select the projection system to use.

 

I would probably finally pay for that fangraphs subscription if they had some kind of trade value/assessment tool

[Laika]

I would probably finally pay for that fangraphs subscription if they had some kind of trade value/assessment tool

 

Nah they'd prefer to push text based "trade analysis" from social justice warriors

[Stangstag]

It's just an extremely rough tool

 

Most of the time it's reasonable enough but in this instance it's clearly wrong

 

I wish there was a way to do this on Fangraphs. It would not be hard for them to build out. Maybe where you could select the projection system to use.

 

Also to be fair, it looks like Garcia’s projections are a bit light?? Kirk’s are pretty crazy optimistic

[Spanky99]

That's no where close to fair value. Kirk was worth almost double the fWAR last season.

 

Kirk for Javier is much closer. Kirk was worth more fWAR, is a year younger and has 1 extra year of control. It's still much closer.

 

I was thinking he meant with Abreu included.

[Spanky99]

Nah they'd prefer to push text based "trade analysis" from social justice warriors

 

Lmao

[Laika]

It's incredibly easy to make this too.

 

1. Pull the guaranteed money from Baseball Reference.

1a. If player is not guaranteed, just make up a salary for their arb years based on their WAR projection.

2. Project WAR across years of control. You can just use Steamer for the upcoming year and then age based adjustments.

3. Pick a $/WAR figure.

 

Done. Trade value!

[Laika]

Also to be fair, it looks like Garcia’s projections are a bit light?? Kirk’s are pretty crazy optimistic

 

For Garcia he's basically projected to be the almost exactly the same as 2022 so I buy that 100%. He doesn't have amazing stuff so I don't think there is any breakout potential.

 

I don't know why anyone would expect less than those projections from Kirk. He's one of the best hitting prospects to come up this millennium, based on stats alone. And he just turned 24 this week. Happy birthday Kirk!

[Brownie19]

Also to be fair, it looks like Garcia’s projections are a bit light?? Kirk’s are pretty crazy optimistic

 

Yeah if Kirk is going to be a 141 wRC+ hitter then there's probably no chance we get his 'true value' in return. He's worth Corbin Carroll at that projection.

[Sorrow]

Nathan Lukes was added to the 40 man roster, which likely spends the end of Raimel Tapia.

[Stangstag]

Yeah if Kirk is going to be a 141 wRC+ hitter then there's probably no chance we get his 'true value' in return. He's worth Corbin Carroll at that projection.

 

Yup. If you believe those projections to be accurate, you have to hold onto Kirk. Expecting a 20 point jump in wRC+ seems extremely bullish and I doubt many teams would value him THAT highly.

[Laika]

Qualified catcher seasons since 1990 where the catcher was 23 or younger and was an above average hitter

 

1994 Pudge 112 wRC+

1997 Kendall 119 wRC+

2005 Mauer 108 wRC+

2006 Mauer 141 wRC+

2013 Sal Perez 106 wRC+

2022 Kirk 129 wRC+

 

look at this f***ing company, lol.

hall of famer, probable hall of famer, 37 WAR career catcher, and then the worst of them is a 7x all star

 

you simply do not trade this guy unless the piece coming back is also a young player under control for many years who has a chance to be SPECIAL

[jaysblue]

Only Astros arm I would trade Kirk for is either Javier or Framber. Which we know won't happen. Garcia and U are nothing special. Jansen maybe for one of those guys + another arm, but would rather trade Jansen for a guy like Tyler O'Neill who has shown he's capable of being a 5-6 WAR player.

 

Can either sign an arm similar to Garcia or trade Teo/Lourdes for a similar value SP afterwards.

[InsideThePark]

Found an interesting article on the Rule 5 draft + prospects that need to be added to 40 man rosters

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/rule-5-draft-prospects-protected-on-40-man-rosters

 

I assume the Jays and other teams would prefer not to sign a FA prior to Nov 15 as those players would need to added to the 40 man roster and as such, a prospect would have to be exposed in the Rule 5 draft

 

I don't expect much early action but I wouldn't say this is the reason why. When you protect a prospect from the rule 5 they stay on your 40 man indefinitely. So when you sign a free agent later that prospect is still there taking up a 40 man spot. Both the prospect and the free agent will be on the 40 man when the season starts. The order doesn't really matter. Protect the prospect then sign the free agent or sign the free agent and then protect the prospect it's all the same. If anything getting all your work done within the 5 days would give you a better idea of how much room you have to protect rule 5 prospects so you know how many you can protect rather than add too many and be looking for a roster spot for a free agent later, but obviously doing an entire offseasons work in the first 5 days isn't realistic as this is the opposite of the NHL free agent frenzy and everyone waits.

[Brownie19]

Qualified catcher seasons since 1990 where the catcher was 23 or younger and was an above average hitter

 

1994 Pudge 112 wRC+

1997 Kendall 119 wRC+

2005 Mauer 108 wRC+

2006 Mauer 141 wRC+

2013 Sal Perez 106 wRC+

2022 Kirk 129 wRC+

 

look at this f***ing company, lol.

hall of famer, probable hall of famer, 37 WAR career catcher, and then the worst of them is a 7x all star

 

you simply do not trade this guy unless the piece coming back is also a young player under control for many years who has a chance to be SPECIAL

 

Agreed - although Sal Perez is perhaps the overrated player in the league over the past 10 years. Kirk for Corbin Carroll it is then. Get it done Atkins.

[Stangstag]

Qualified catcher seasons since 1990 where the catcher was 23 or younger and was an above average hitter

 

1994 Pudge 112 wRC+

1997 Kendall 119 wRC+

2005 Mauer 108 wRC+

2006 Mauer 141 wRC+

2013 Sal Perez 106 wRC+

2022 Kirk 129 wRC+

 

look at this f***ing company, lol.

hall of famer, probable hall of famer, 37 WAR career catcher, and then the worst of them is a 7x all star

 

you simply do not trade this guy unless the piece coming back is also a young player under control for many years who has a chance to be SPECIAL

 

Hard to disagree with this

[Spanky99]

Qualified catcher seasons since 1990 where the catcher was 23 or younger and was an above average hitter

 

1994 Pudge 112 wRC+

1997 Kendall 119 wRC+

2005 Mauer 108 wRC+

2006 Mauer 141 wRC+

2013 Sal Perez 106 wRC+

2022 Kirk 129 wRC+

 

look at this f***ing company, lol.

hall of famer, probable hall of famer, 37 WAR career catcher, and then the worst of them is a 7x all star

 

you simply do not trade this guy unless the piece coming back is also a young player under control for many years who has a chance to be SPECIAL

 

Move him for Nootbar...

[Terminator]

Yup. If you believe those projections to be accurate, you have to hold onto Kirk. Expecting a 20 point jump in wRC+ seems extremely bullish and I doubt many teams would value him THAT highly.

 

Please find whoever Danny Jansen's optometrist is and ask him to increase the strength of your eye glass prescription because Steamer is only projecting a 12 point increase on his 2022 wRC+, not 20.

 

Next, please read a Bill James book, or maybe even a Fangraphs article (anything other than a Sheryl Ring article would probably teach you a thing or two) because it's not "extremely bullish" to expect a 23 year old player to get better.

[Terminator]

Qualified catcher seasons since 1990 where the catcher was 23 or younger and was an above average hitter

 

1994 Pudge 112 wRC+

1997 Kendall 119 wRC+

2005 Mauer 108 wRC+

2006 Mauer 141 wRC+

2013 Sal Perez 106 wRC+

2022 Kirk 129 wRC+

 

look at this f***ing company, lol.

hall of famer, probable hall of famer, 37 WAR career catcher, and then the worst of them is a 7x all star

 

you simply do not trade this guy unless the piece coming back is also a young player under control for many years who has a chance to be SPECIAL

 

Finally, someone around here is posting with some common sense (except for me of course)

[Terminator]

Hard to disagree with this

 

Mods- someone hacked StankyLeg's account. He posted something positive about Kirk. Please investigate

[Brownie19]

Finally, someone around here is posting with some common sense (except for me of course)

 

To be fair - nobody was suggesting that you trade Kirk for s***. Most agreed that you'd only move him if the piece coming back is also a young player under control for many years who has a chance to be SPECIAL.