General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[G-Snarls]

Still listed as the starter for tomorrow atm

 

To the Twitter!

 

Edit: Found nothing but speculation

[Solaxys]

yarp. but today's lineup - no teo:

[John_Havok]

f***in garbage... Tapia hitting 6th. I give up.

[wilko]

f***in garbage... Tapia hitting 6th. I give up.

 

With the diving play he made yesterday i'm surprised he's not batting leadoff today.

[Solaxys]

[Eat My Shatkins]

Would anyone here trade Groshans for Bednar?

 

Would the Pirates take it if the Jays offered?

[John_Havok]

 

Jansen is such an obvious trade piece at this point though, he's gone instantly for the right return. The C spot is nailed down for the next 6+ seasons with Kirk and Moreno, even if Moreno never hits better than a league average catcher.

 

Problem is, who needs a catcher with 2.5 years of control left, that's on the way up, and has something they'd want to trade that doesn't impact their upward trajectory and that helps the Jays now?

[John_Havok]

Would anyone here trade Groshans for Bednar?

 

Would the Pirates take it if the Jays offered?

 

I don't think the Pirates are all that interested in trading Bednar tbh. They've locked up some guys to longer term deals, Oneil Cruz is just coming up and murdering baseball while throwin 97 mph seeds across the diamond from SS, Bryan reynolds might be their next extension... and Bednar would still be there for the next 4 seasons. I truly doubt he's on the block given the foundation that has been laid there.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I don't think the Pirates are all that interested in trading Bednar tbh. They've locked up some guys to longer term deals, Oneil Cruz is just coming up and murdering baseball while throwin 97 mph seeds across the diamond from SS, Bryan reynolds might be their next extension... and Bednar would still be there for the next 4 seasons. I truly doubt he's on the block given the foundation that has been laid there.

 

Fair enough.

 

I wonder if 100 miles Giles arm will hold up, I see he is back now. He could be a nice pick up if he's still good, and Seattle doesn't crawl back into the playoff race.

[Ryu In My House]

Big news, everyone. Shi Davidi just revealed that the FO may still make other moves this year, and that signing s*****, washed up Romo may not be their last move.

[jays4life19]

Someone make the GDT

[G-Snarls]

Someone make the GDT

 

I got it

[keggy]

f***in garbage... Tapia hitting 6th. I give up.

 

It's almost certainly to separate up Tapia and Biggio enough in the batting order to prevent a lefty reliever from facing both in the same inning.

 

Personally, I think Tapia is such a weak hitter I would prefer him lower in the order to get less guaranteed ABs, especially since you have Teoscar on the bench to counter a lefty reliever anyways.

 

This is the weird side of analytics.

[Carlos Danger]

I don't think the Pirates are all that interested in trading Bednar tbh. They've locked up some guys to longer term deals, Oneil Cruz is just coming up and murdering baseball while throwin 97 mph seeds across the diamond from SS, Bryan reynolds might be their next extension... and Bednar would still be there for the next 4 seasons. I truly doubt he's on the block given the foundation that has been laid there.

 

I am worried you might be right about Bednar.. However, there is a history of Cherington leveraging good RPs for future assets at the deadline.

 

I think we shoud hope Seattle and Detroit fall out of it far and quick. Both teams have multiple nice RP arms that we might be able to aquire...

[jaysblue]

Big news, everyone. Shi Davidi just revealed that the FO may still make other moves this year, and that signing s*****, washed up Romo may not be their last move.

 

Every other poster on here could have told you that haha

[Brownie19]

Biggio up to a 118 wRC+. That is so f***ing encouraging.

[Dagagad]

The top 5 teams in swinging strike rate have 9 pitchers or so each in their bullpen right now for a total of 45. There are 5 players total who were drafted by that team or signed as an amateur free agent. 5.

 

The narrative that it takes time for pitching to develop and that it needs to percolate up the system for us to get swing and miss in the pen is ********.

 

7 years is enough time to put together a bullpen if you have a smart front office and good development and pitch design. We just aren’t super good at this as an organization.

[Terminator]

The top 5 teams in swinging strike rate have 9 pitchers or so each in their bullpen right now for a total of 45. There are 5 players total who were drafted by that team or signed as an amateur free agent. 5.

 

Wat

[Dagagad]

Wat

 

There are 5 players out of 45 who were signed originally by that team. The vast majority sign as free agents or via trades.

[Solaxys]

The top 5 teams in swinging strike rate have 9 pitchers or so each in their bullpen right now for a total of 45. There are 5 players total who were drafted by that team or signed as an amateur free agent. 5.

 

The narrative that it takes time for pitching to develop and that it needs to percolate up the system for us to get swing and miss in the pen is ********.

 

7 years is enough time to put together a bullpen if you have a smart front office and good development and pitch design. We just aren’t super good at this as an organization.

 

 

 

Kay so you wanna start a "fire Atkins" protest outside Rogers Centre? Let me know when, I'll come join.

[Terminator]

There are 5 players out of 45 who were signed originally by that team. The vast majority sign as free agents or via trades.

 

Oh ok I see now. So we need to make better/more trades or free agent signings? Seems like one trade deadline can bring significant improvement then.

[Dagagad]

Oh ok I see now. So we need to make better/more trades or free agent signings? Seems like one trade deadline can bring significant improvement then.

 

I doubt it as there is now 7 years of evidence that they suck at trading for it and suck at signing it as free agents.

[Dagagad]

Kay so you wanna start a "fire Atkins" protest outside Rogers Centre? Let me know when, I'll come join.

 

I would really love to just know why. Like is this intentional? Do they think that swinging strikes are overrated?

 

There’s something missing. I don’t know if it’s pitching dev or talent identification or both. But there is something missing.

[Solaxys]

I would really love to just know why. Like is this intentional? Do they think that swinging strikes are overrated?

 

There’s something missing. I don’t know if it’s pitching dev or talent identification or both. But there is something missing.

 

The data is right there though. Just because we need something does not mean its available

 

You stated 36 swing/miss relievers are with the top teams, did we have a single chance in hell to sign them or trade for them?

Were there country restrictions in play, money/years of control in play that we didn't want to risk, better prospect capital from other teams on the trade?

If we can't identify the specific instances where we let go of a potential superstar elite bullpen player, and just keep saying "we need them, so why didn't they sign them", you'll never really get answers.

 

Its like, why didn't Verlander sign with Toronto? Same contract as Houston, outbid the Yankees yet JV decided to stay there.

We signed Yimi Garcia and he is a swing/miss reliever. And he is on a good salary, that was also offered by another club but he came here - so why didn't Yimi sign with them? Is the other FO s*** too?

 

Other than Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Mets, and maybe Twins, every other contending team needs bullpen arms (are they all s***? none of them have aspirations of winning or see the clear difference of what is needed?)

And every single season, most teams want bullpen arms by deadline

 

---

 

Hell f***ing Padres lost a 6-0 lead to Diamondbacks and lost the game because of not enough swing/miss relief after exhausting it the night before.

Hader is struggling of late even though he is the best swing/miss reliever in the game possibly (maybe Holmes beats him now)

Chapman a premier swing/miss pitcher has had monumental collapses

Bednar has struggled of late

Holmes has given up runs to Rays

Os BP collapsed today with two of their swing/miss pitchers getting shelled

Staumont from KC, that we so aggressively want according to many baseball pundits, has like 3.6 something ERA (and 3.25 FIP; 4.56 xFIP) - (Worse than Phelps, Cimber, Mayza, Romano, Thornton, Garcia etc...)

 

Like you honestly think Atkins looks at the roster and goes "Well s***, we'll be okay without a true hurler"?

 

And everyone here is like "get bullpen help" and I am like - s*** doesn't magically drop out of the sky.

You have to sell farm for Bednar because everyone is going to go after him, and then what if he f***s up like he did against the Rays & Dodgers and almost against Giants - you'd feel good about the trade then possibly giving up two of your top prospects?

KC trade maybe but those relievers have been getting shelled of late and Yankees are favorites to land a Benintendi trade package that could involve one or two of those arms.

Maybe trade for Jorge Lopez from Os who's having one stellar year (but history of s*** years) - and then next year, when he's s***, we'll all be back here going "omg, Atkins needs to do better"

 

We can't be pretending Atkins had a shot to sign Edwin Diaz but, with pure cognizance, said 'nah, I'll go for Richards instead'. That is delusional and unfair to the administration.

Edited June 30, 2022 by Solaxys

[Dagagad]

The data is right there though. Just because we need something does not mean its available

 

You stated 36 swing/miss relievers are with the top teams, did we have a single chance in hell to sign them or trade for them?

Were there country restrictions in play, money/years of control in play that we didn't want to risk, better prospect capital from other teams on the trade?

If we can't identify the specific instances where we let go of a potential superstar elite bullpen player, and just keep saying "we need them, so why didn't they sign them", you'll never really get answers.

 

Its like, why didn't Verlander sign with Toronto? Same contract as Houston, outbid the Yankees yet JV decided to stay there.

We signed Yimi Garcia and he is a swing/miss reliever. And he is on a good salary, that was also offered by another club but he came here - so why didn't Yimi sign with them? Is the other FO s*** too?

 

Other than Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Mets, and maybe Twins, every other contending team needs bullpen arms (are they all s***? none of them have aspirations of winning or see the clear difference of what is needed?)

And every single season, most teams want bullpen arms by deadline

 

---

 

Hell f***ing Padres lost a 6-0 lead to Diamondbacks and lost the game because of not enough swing/miss relief after exhausting it the night before.

Hader is struggling of late even though he is the best swing/miss reliever on the market.

Bednar has struggled of late

Holmes has given up runs to Rays

Os BP collapsed today

Staumont from KC, that we so aggressively want according to many baseball pundits, has like 3.6 something ERA (and 3.25 FIP; 4.56 xFIP) - (Worse than Phelps, Cimber, Mayza, Romano, Thornton, Garcia etc...)

 

Like you honestly think Atkins looks at the roster and goes "Well s***, we'll be okay without a true hurler"?

 

And everyone here is like "get bullpen help" and I am like - s*** doesn't magically drop out of the sky.

You have to sell farm for Bednar because everyone is going to go after him

KC trade maybe but those relievers have been getting shelled of late and Yankees are favorites to land a Benintendi trade package that could involve one or two of those arms.

Maybe trade for Jorge Lopez from Os who's having one stellar year (but history of s*** years) - and then next year, when he's s***, we'll all be back here going "omg, Atkins needs to do better"

 

We can't be pretending Atkins had a shot to sign Edwin Diaz but, with pure cognizance, said 'nah, I'll go for Richards instead'. That is delusional and unfair to the administration.

 

I don’t know if I agree with this. Like, yea the Yankees gave quite a bit to get Holmes. The king trade though wasn’t a blockbuster at all. Most of these signings and trades were done for not much. You could go through all those players and find that most were acquired for not much.

 

I think you are right to an extent but it’s more like they aren’t prepared to give anything of real value at all for a reliever generally AND they don’t target swing and miss.

 

All these bullpens have some element of talent ID and then development of that talent. We do one or both of them badly.

 

I’m not talking about one off results. I’m talking about one stat that is a decent proxy for how nasty your bullpen is and we are 29th.

 

The hand and romo trades/signings are indicative of our philosophy. Cheap and used fo be good. Doesn’t strike people out, doesn’t have great underlying stuff but they might get it back and theres value in that.

 

Other teams hunt raw funk and think they can harness it.

[Solaxys]

The king trade though wasn’t a blockbuster at all. Most of these pitchers and trades were done for not much. You could go through all those players and find that most were acquired for not much.

 

That's fair but King was a starter at the time of the trade with 4.11 ERA. When he was brought up to the majors, he had 7.76 ERA over 9 starts - sent back down, turned into a reliever, came back and posted a 3.55 ERA in 22 relief appearances, 1.3 WHIP. Not elite in any sense of the word.

This year he turned it on.

So King took roughly 3 yrs of work and no one thought he was a reliever to begin with because his entire development was of a starter.

 

If Pearson stayed true to the course, he'd exactly be on the same track as King.

 

 

I think you are right to an extent but it’s more like they aren’t prepared to give anything of real value at all for a reliever generally AND they don’t target swing and miss.

 

We don't know that though; it might seem that way, but again we can't assume Atkins just completely ignores fast hurlers for trickshot pitchers. We can simply say, we ended up this way and it f***ing sucks.

Like 100% sure Atkins tried to get Kendall Graveman, but guess what - he couldn't sign 'cause not vaxxed. Not in Atkins hands.

Loup? Thank god we didn't sign him, but would you have given up 16 f***ing million for Loup?

Iglesias - signed a 4 year deal with LAA considering he is 32, there is no way it was smart to outbid that contract.

 

Everyone else ahead of Yimi Garcia from last year in WAR and in free agency? not swing/miss pitchers.

And most below him? Doing badly or signed MiLB deals.

We basically took the best pitcher on a good contract that turned out to be swing/miss because he chose to come here and picked us.

 

Also why would they go look at Trevor Rosenthal if they are not interested in swing/miss

 

All these bullpens have some element of talent ID and then development of that talent. We do one or both of them badly.

 

I’m not talking about one off results. I’m talking about one stat that is a decent proxy for how nasty your bullpen is and we are 29th.

 

But most bullpen arms that are on the market are one-off results; trades of bullpen arms that are consistent require you to absolutely abolish your farm; and teams that have built these consistent swing/miss arms (like Hader) aren't going to trade them. Like unless Pirates get a super f***ing haul, I guarantee you they are gonna extend Bednar.

Edited June 30, 2022 by Solaxys

[Dagagad]

That's fair but King was a starter at the time of the trade with 4.11 ERA. When he was brought up to the majors, he had 7.76 ERA over 9 starts - sent back down, turned into a reliever, came back and posted a 3.55 ERA in 22 relief appearances, 1.3 WHIP. Not elite in any sense of the word.

This year he turned it on.

So King took roughly 3 yrs of work and no one thought he was a reliever to begin with because his entire development was of a starter.

 

If Pearson stayed true to the course, he'd exactly be on the same track as King.

 

 

 

 

We don't know that though; it might seem that way, but again we can't assume Atkins just completely ignores fast hurlers for trickshot pitchers. We can simply say, we ended up this way and it f***ing sucks.

Like 100% sure Atkins tried to get Kendall Graveman, but guess what - he couldn't sign 'cause not vaxxed. Not in Atkins hands.

Loup? Thank god we didn't sign him, but would you have given up 16 f***ing million for Loup?

Iglesias - signed a 4 year deal with LAA considering he is 32, there is no way it was smart to outbid that contract.

 

Everyone else ahead of Yimi Garcia from last year in WAR and in free agency? not swing/miss pitchers.

And most below him? Doing badly or signed MiLB deals.

We basically took the best pitcher on a good contract that turned out to be swing/miss because he chose to come here and picked us.

 

Also why would they go look at Trevor Rosenthal if they are not interested in swing/miss

 

 

 

But most bullpen arms that are on the market are one-off results; trades of bullpen arms that are consistent require you to absolutely abolish your farm; and teams that have built these consistent swing/miss arms (like Hader) aren't going to trade them. Like unless Pirates get a super f***ing haul, I guarantee you they are gonna extend Bednar.

 

I mean exactly. The Yankees are able to do that every year. They acquire guys for next to nothing and after a few years of tinkering, he’s a stud at least for a while. They had the same with Losaiga last year. Got in a trade for not much, turns into an elite reliever for at least a while. Almost no reliever is good for ever. Most that get to be good are only good for one or two seasons here and there. You need to be constantly churning out new guys.

 

It’s been 7 years. Every team misses a ton and the best teams at this miss less. We aren’t one of the best teams at this.

 

There should have been some random nothing trades made a couple of years ago that turned into real bullpen production by now and that doesn’t happen for us because we aren’t good at this.

 

I don’t know how many other ways to say this. After 7 years it’s not bad luck.

[Solaxys]

I mean exactly. The Yankees are able to do that every year. They acquire guys for next to nothing and after a few years of tinkering, he’s a stud at least for a while. They had the same with Losaiga last year. Got in a trade for not much, turns into an elite reliever for at least a while.

 

It’s been 7 years. Every team misses a ton and the best teams at this miss less. We aren’t one of the best teams at this.

 

There should have been some random nothing trades made a couple of years ago that turned into real bullpen production by now and that doesn’t happen for us because we aren’t good at this.

 

Fair but Yankees only overhauled their pitching system 3 years ago. Weird that Matt Blake (Yankees pitching coach right now) was under Shapiro in Cleveland but Shapiro didn't bring him over - literally changed the outlook of Yankees pitching over the last 2 yrs.

And I agree, the pitching is suffering and as I said before - if Berrios isn't fixed before this year is done, Pete Walker is getting fired. That contract is way too heavy for someone to not take responsibility.

 

---

Anyway, my point is - yes our BP sucks because we don't have a lights-out dude or dudes. All we need is two, that's it.

More importantly, we also need a competent f***ing manager who does not overuse the bullpen because he wants to be the Rays; more immediately, not have two of our f***ing starters going <4 IP every time they are out. Stripling has finally settled in (so thank god we don't have 3 starters going < 4 IP anymore) but that stretch where he had a pitch cap on cause he was being stretched out was very hard on the BP.

 

---

Lets look at Yankees.

They have Michael King at 1.4 WAR (2.32 FIP) and Holmes at 1.3 WAR (1.68 FIP).

That's it.

 

Everyone else has been average - Peralta, Green, Leutge, Marinacchio, Castro, Abreu, Sears, Weber, Schmidt, Chapman (negative WAR lol), Loaisiga.

Not counting Chapman/Loaisiga or the top two, the combined WAR of the relief corps: 1.3 WAR

 

Lets look at Jays.

Our highest is Phelps at 0.6 WAR (2.50 FIP), and then Garcia at 0.4 WAR (3.44 FIP)

 

Romano & Cimber at 0.4 WAR, 0.2 for Thornton and Merryweather, Mayza at 0.2, and then you have Saucdeo and Richards (-0.6 WAR, yikes, 5.79 FIP) in the negatives.

Not counting Saucedo/Richards or the top two, the combined WAR of the relief corps: 1.3 WAR

All our FIPs are higher than the Yankees' but our xFIP is lower - fatigue? overuse? yips? umps? who the f*** knows

 

And so if we had another pitcher or two at < 2.5 FIP, we'd be pretty much in the same spot as Yankees re: BP

But you genuinely can't expect every team to have a King/Holmes combo - they just absolutely lucked out on a 2.7 WAR relief pitcher duo.

[Terminator]

I doubt it as there is now 7 years of evidence that they suck at trading for it and suck at signing it as free agents.

 

Nah they just haven't even bothered pouring resources into it. They took over an old team and tried to keep it going for another year but otherwise they haven't even really tried to contend until last year (they sort of started to try in 2020). Like most smart front offices the bullpen is the cherry on top. You keep pointing to the Yankees and Astros as teams that are so great at building a bullpen but they are perennial contenders, of course they are constantly signing and trading for relievers. When you aren't contending it's just hard to justify adding high leverage relievers when the major offseason moves consist of signing an aging Curtis Granderson to a one year deal to hit in the heart of the lineup.

 

Up until now there are some years they didn't even sign a reliever to an MLB deal. Other years they'll sign a Joe Smith or Oh for peanuts who will pan out just so they can flip them or they'll sign a JP Howell for nothing and they end up sucking. Either way, they've barely tried on the bullpen. Our CL is a Rule 5 returnee and our setup man was literally acquired in a trade for Joe Panik lmao. Yimi Garcia's 1 year 6 mil deal is the biggest deal they've made for a reliever.

 

The bullpen can literally be fixed in one trade deadline. If not, it can be fixed in one trade deadline and one offseason. All they have to do is finally try and now that the FO has built a contender they will definitely start to put more of a focus on that part of the team.

[Dagagad]

Fair but Yankees only overhauled their pitching system 3 years ago. Weird that Matt Blake (Yankees pitching coach right now) was under Shapiro in Cleveland but Shapiro didn't bring him over - literally changed the outlook of Yankees pitching over the last 2 yrs.

And I agree, the pitching is suffering and as I said before - if Berrios isn't fixed before this year is done, Pete Walker is getting fired. That contract is way too heavy for someone to not take responsibility.

 

---

Anyway, my point is - yes our BP sucks because we don't have a lights-out dude or dudes. All we need is two, that's it.

More importantly, we also need a competent f***ing manager who does not overuse the bullpen because he wants to be the Rays; more immediately, not have two of our f***ing starters going <4 IP every time they are out. Stripling has finally settled in (so thank god we don't have 3 starters going < 4 IP anymore) but that stretch where he had a pitch cap on cause he was being stretched out was very hard on the BP.

 

---

Lets look at Yankees.

They have Michael King at 1.4 WAR (2.32 FIP) and Holmes at 1.3 WAR (1.68 FIP).

That's it.

 

Everyone else has been average - Peralta, Green, Leutge, Marinacchio, Castro, Abreu, Sears, Weber, Schmidt, Chapman (negative WAR lol), Loaisiga.

Not counting Chapman/Loaisiga or the top two, the combined WAR of the relief corps: 1.3 WAR

 

Lets look at Jays.

Our highest is Phelps at 0.6 WAR (2.50 FIP), and then Garcia at 0.4 WAR (3.44 FIP)

 

Romano & Cimber at 0.4 WAR, 0.2 for Thornton and Merryweather, Mayza at 0.2, and then you have Saucdeo and Richards (-0.6 WAR, yikes, 5.79 FIP) in the negatives.

Not counting Saucedo/Richards or the top two, the combined WAR of the relief corps: 1.3 WAR

All our FIPs are higher than the Yankees' but our xFIP is lower - fatigue? overuse? yips? umps? who the f*** knows

 

And so if we had another pitcher or two at < 2.5 FIP, we'd be pretty much in the same spot as Yankees re: BP

But you genuinely can't expect every team to have a King/Holmes combo - they just absolutely lucked out on a 2.7 WAR relief pitcher duo.

 

I don’t care about WAR. I care if a reliever can strike people out or not in high leverage. If most of your relievers habitually give up decent contact, then you are going to give up runs in high leverage.

 

If there is a guy on third and one out, can you get a strikeout? If there is a guy on second, with no outs, is your best option a guy like Phelps who anyone can at least put the ball in play against?

 

If I’m the Yankees, I absolutely want cimber (such a different look after a starter) and romano (even though romano hasn’t been good this season) and that’s probably it.

 

I’d swap our entire bullpen for the Yankees right now and they can keep Holmes. I’ll just take the rest.

 

The problem by the way isn’t that our manager wants to be the rays, it’s that the rays front office is capable of giving their manager a good pen.