Around Baseball 2022

[Eat My Shatkins]

 

Ah yes, getting first place in the shittiest division in baseball. Way to go Guardians.

 

They've played just 46 f***ing games against above .500 teams.

[Grant77]

Eugenio Suarez would be one of best offensive players on the Jays. The Ms are down him and JRod and the protection they afford other batters.

 

I do not want to face the Ms in a short series.

 

I believe their pen is better them ours also.

 

They sure lucked out with Suarez. He certainly had negative value in that trade and was a fairly significant salary dump.

 

At age 31, he's somehow changed from a defensive liability to a positive defender and is in the midst of his best season ever.

 

None of these potential playoff teams are 'easy' matchups, but I think we have a far better chance of beating them than a Rays team with vastly superior pitching and a versatile offense that has performed similarly against better opposition.

[BTS]

They sure lucked out with Suarez. He certainly had negative value in that trade and was a fairly significant salary dump.

 

At age 31, he's somehow changed from a defensive liability to a positive defender and is in the midst of his best season ever.

 

None of these potential playoff teams are 'easy' matchups, but I think we have a far better chance of beating them than a Rays team with vastly superior pitching and a versatile offense that has performed similarly against better opposition.

 

I don't trust the Rays pitching staff at all. McClanahan hasn't been as good lately, and is battling a shoulder issue. Springs has thrown like 100 more innings than he has in any season since 2018. Rasmussen has thrown like twice as many innings as he ever has in a season. Baz is dead. Converting Springs and Rasmussen to starters has worked very well and will have played a big role in getting them to the playoffs, but I think the Rays are just going to run out of steam.

[Abomination]

I don't trust the Rays pitching staff at all. McClanahan hasn't been as good lately, and is battling a shoulder issue. Springs has thrown like 100 more innings than he has in any season since 2018. Rasmussen has thrown like twice as many innings as he ever has in a season. Baz is dead. Converting Springs and Rasmussen to starters has worked very well and will have played a big role in getting them to the playoffs, but I think the Rays are just going to run out of steam.

 

Well, I mean we could say the same thing about Manoah in terms of innings, and the Rays will probably only use them once through the order in the playoffs anyway.

[Grant77]

I don't trust the Rays pitching staff at all. McClanahan hasn't been as good lately, and is battling a shoulder issue. Springs has thrown like 100 more innings than he has in any season since 2018. Rasmussen has thrown like twice as many innings as he ever has in a season. Baz is dead. Converting Springs and Rasmussen to starters has worked very well and will have played a big role in getting them to the playoffs, but I think the Rays are just going to run out of steam.

 

I agree that those pitchers will be more prone to injury in the future, but I'm unconvinced that fatigue will affect their performance over the next 2 weeks. Springs, Kluber, and Rasmussen haven't shown any signs of slowing down.

[G-Snarls]

I don't trust the Rays pitching staff at all. McClanahan hasn't been as good lately, and is battling a shoulder issue. Springs has thrown like 100 more innings than he has in any season since 2018. Rasmussen has thrown like twice as many innings as he ever has in a season. Baz is dead. Converting Springs and Rasmussen to starters has worked very well and will have played a big role in getting them to the playoffs, but I think the Rays are just going to run out of steam.

 

Astros SP >>> Rays

[Masterbather]

No American League playoff team has a worse pitching situation than we do. Our offense has to be red hot and we need Manoah and Gausman to have pretty much no slip-ups and our pen to manage to go on a hot streak at the right time.

[Grant77]

No American League playoff team has a worse pitching situation than we do. Our offense has to be red hot and we need Manoah and Gausman to have pretty much no slip-ups and our pen to manage to go on a hot streak at the right time.

 

AL pitching WAR (playoff contenders):

 

1. Houston: 25.1

2. New York: 18.1

3. Cleveland: 17.0

5. Toronto: 15.6

6. Tampa: 15.2

8. Seattle 13.6

9. Baltimore: 12.9

 

WAR of top 3 starters:

 

1. Houston: 12.4

2. Toronto: 12.3

3. Cleveland: 9.6

4. Tampa: 9

5. New York: 8.6

6. Seattle: 8

7. Baltimore: 4.8

 

Bullpen WAR:

 

1. Houston: 7.4

2. Cleveland: 5.9

3. New York: 5.6

5. Baltimore: 4.7

7. Seattle: 3.8

9. Tampa: 3.1

10. Toronto: 2.6

[Stangstag]

AL pitching WAR (playoff contenders):

 

1. Houston: 25.1

2. New York: 18.1

3. Cleveland: 17.0

5. Toronto: 15.6

6. Tampa: 15.2

8. Seattle 13.6

9. Baltimore: 12.9

 

WAR of top 3 starters:

 

1. Houston: 12.4

2. Toronto: 12.3

3. Cleveland: 9.6

4. Tampa: 9

5. New York: 8.6

6. Seattle: 8

7. Baltimore: 4.8

 

Bullpen WAR:

 

1. Houston: 7.4

2. Cleveland: 5.9

3. New York: 5.6

5. Baltimore: 4.7

7. Seattle: 3.8

9. Tampa: 3.1

10. Toronto: 2.6

 

Nuts how Houston is so far ahead of the pack

[Laika]

Nuts how Houston is so far ahead of the pack

 

Their pitching development is nearly unmatched.

 

They take pitchers other teams think of as relievers or non-prospects and turn them into above average arms, sometimes borderline Aces. It's nuts!

 

And they do similar things with relievers.

[Brownie19]

Nuts how Houston is so far ahead of the pack

 

Agreed. I think in an ideal world, we'd finish 3rd in the WC Standings so we can go through Cleveland and NYY before having to face Houston. Doesn't look like that's going to happen though, so we're probably going to need some luck if we get through the WC round.

[Brownie19]

I may have missed it, but I saw an article that said NY was considering DFA'ing A.Chapman. Seemed like click bait to me, but still interesting. He's been awful this year, but still...

[jaysblue]

I don't trust the Rays pitching staff at all. McClanahan hasn't been as good lately, and is battling a shoulder issue. Springs has thrown like 100 more innings than he has in any season since 2018. Rasmussen has thrown like twice as many innings as he ever has in a season. Baz is dead. Converting Springs and Rasmussen to starters has worked very well and will have played a big role in getting them to the playoffs, but I think the Rays are just going to run out of steam.

 

Isn't Glasnow coming back as well? Most likely used out of the bullpen I imagine, but still he could be a dangerous weapon.

 

A lot of the Rays success depends on McClanahan staying healthy and being at 100%. Springs and Rasmussen likely will be used only once or twice through a lineup anyways. It's not like they both were being pushed hard this season in terms of innings. Springs IMO has got stronger as the year went on. Kluber has also been very solid this season and has Postseason experience.

[Laika]

Isn't Glasnow coming back as well? Most likely used out of the bullpen I imagine, but still he could be a dangerous weapon.

 

A lot of the Rays success depends on McClanahan staying healthy and being at 100%. Springs and Rasmussen likely will be used only once or twice through a lineup anyways. It's not like they both were being pushed hard this season in terms of innings. Springs IMO has got stronger as the year went on. Kluber has also been very solid this season and has Postseason experience.

 

apparently glasnow is stretched out

[jaysblue]

apparently glasnow is stretched out

 

Wow interesting. Wonder how the Rays use him.

[mphenhef]

Nuts how Houston is so far ahead of the pack

 

It wouldn't surprise me if they are cheating somehow given their history. They did go through a period where any pitcher coming in immediately added tons of spin.

[Olerud363]

Like the Angels, Athletics, and Royals that they went 3-7 against? It's kind of funny immediately after a certain poster sang their praises as an elite playoff team, despite the statistics saying otherwise.

 

lol. The statistics do not say otherwise you mean spirited bully!

 

You've apparently somehow discovered a team, which fangraphs WAR underrates and will cherry pick the cumulative fWAR of the Seattle starting staff without considering...

 

a) Castillo a 3.4 WAR pitcher isn't in their top 3, because he's only pitched 1/3 of a season

Kirby, arguably their 2nd best only has 120 innings

c) The fWAR formula under-rates Seattle's bulk starters with low k rates

d) The fWAR formula may under-rate Robbie Ray

 

Do you honestly believe the difference between Gaussman and Robbie Ray is 5.5 WAR to 2? I don't know. The market doesn't think so, treating these 2 as equivalent, but maybe the Robbie Signing will turn out to be the worst ever. He's only a 2 fWAR guy despite king 200 a year

 

In baseball anybody can be wrong about anything, as we all have been many times. Your mode of operation is to continuously cherry pick your way through life in every way possible. You will make 8 predictions, be wrong about 5, and gloat about the 3 you hit!!!!

 

Will Seattle continue to collapse ? Let's see what the next 10 days brings. They might. They might not. If there is such a thing as pressing the next 10 days might indeed be tough after a historically bad loss. They probably make the playoffs anyway, are relieved after a little scare and are relaxed for their 3 game coin flip.

 

Hilariously you are going on and on about Seattle being so bad, and they are a good Robbie Ray/Castillo/Kirby start away from winning a 3 game series and making you look like a moron.

[Jimcanuck]

Nuts how Houston is so far ahead of the pack

 

With one of the top pitching prospects in the game and MLB ready Hunter Brown in the bullpen. Front of rotation stuff.

[Olerud363]

Eugenio Suarez would be one of best offensive players on the Jays. The Ms are down him and JRod and the protection they afford other batters.

 

I do not want to face the Ms in a short series.

 

I believe their pen is better them ours also.

 

For some reason Grant has been using fangraphs fWAR to prove all his points the last three or four weeks, without taking a deeper look. Which is crazy ironic because a few months ago, Grant was dissing fangraphs baserunning stats and claiming that they didn't work, and Tapia was the worst baserunner in baseball based on 3 Rockies games he saw.

 

Quick glance at Saurez FG page and he has been a about a 4 WAR per 162 player 4 of the last 5 years. In 2021 he hit .198 but I can't see anything in the batted ball stats that is way off the other years. Did Seattle luck out? Or look closely at multiple metrics for Saurez.

 

May have repercussions to projecting Orelvis Martinez. Martinez 2022 stats look just like Saurez 2021... so perhaps Martinez is a Saurez like hitter and their 2021/2022 seasons are the floor of what such a player could do... Chapman 2021 offensively too.

 

I guess I've been letting Grant get on my nerves way more than is justifiable, but for God's sake one moment he's telling us Orelvis Martinez will project fine because his 2022 .200 average is a fluke, then the next he acts like Seattle was 'lucky' that Saurez bounced back from the exact same type of .200 average fluke.

[Stangstag]

For some reason Grant has been using fangraphs fWAR to prove all his points the last three or four weeks, without taking a deeper look. Which is crazy ironic because a few months ago, Grant was dissing fangraphs baserunning stats and claiming that they didn't work, and Tapia was the worst baserunner in baseball based on 3 Rockies games he saw.

 

Quick glance at Saurez FG page and he has been a about a 4 WAR per 162 player 4 of the last 5 years. In 2021 he hit .198 but I can't see anything in the batted ball stats that is way off the other years. Did Seattle luck out? Or look closely at multiple metrics for Saurez.

 

May have repercussions to projecting Orelvis Martinez. Martinez 2022 stats look just like Saurez 2021... so perhaps Martinez is a Saurez like hitter and their 2021/2022 seasons are the floor of what such a player could do... Chapman 2021 offensively too.

 

I guess I've been letting Grant get on my nerves way more than is justifiable, but for God's sake one moment he's telling us Orelvis Martinez will project fine because his 2022 .200 average is a fluke, then the next he acts like Seattle was 'lucky' that Saurez bounced back from the exact same type of .200 average fluke.

 

Yeah Suarez had 1 bad season (2021) but other than that he’d been a 3-4 WAR player over his previous 4 years. It was not outrageous to think he’d bounce back and even if they made the trade thinking he’d be a 3ish WAR player, his salary is peanuts and he’s locked up for a few years. I don’t think Seattle got “lucky” with him. It was a dumb trade by the Reds dumping him at his lowest value. Seattle made up for it by paying out the ass for Castillo

 

I remember being upset that the Jays didn’t make that trade. Suarez and Winker filled 2 major holes we had (before we got Chapman)

[Carlos Danger]

At the airport as I type this waiting on a flight to Seattle.

 

f*** FWAR, WAR and anything else. The Carlos Danger analytics Department is on the way and I will give you the ground truth.

 

Be prepared for a comprehensive description of the ground truth in my report. You will be provided with cutting edge feedback using descriptors like:

 

He sucks

He blows

Awesome

He the man!

Your my boy Blue!

DFA that f***er!

Back up the truck

I would trade my mother and Spanky’s mother for that Dude, must have!

Gamer!

Clutch!

Blue Collar player.

 

Stay tuned!

[Grant77]

We're comparing the quality of pitchers based on their last contract instead of advanced metrics now? This is too funny.

 

Robbie Ray has seen decreased strikeouts, increased walks, and decreased velocity this year. They haven't dropped by small amounts either. He's a good pitcher, but this isn't 2021 Robbie Ray anymore and there a lot of red flags. That's all reflected in his 2022 WAR, which is half of his 2021 total.

 

Kevin Gausman has maintained his strikeouts, while decreasing his walks significantly and gaining velocity. The signing could not have been more successful to this point. He's better than Robbie Ray right now. You are wrong period.

 

I didn't even mention Eugenio Suarez' BABIP in my comment, instead focusing on a defensive resurgence in his 30's, which most (except you) would find a little surprising and may involve some element of luck. It's also fair to say that a player coming off of 86 and 100 wRC+ seasons bouncing back to have a career year in his 30's would also involve some element of luck, even if scouting surely played a role. Jerry DiPoto would even tell you that.

 

Here's what MLBTR had to say at the time of the trade:

 

"Clearly, the Mariners assumed Suárez’s deal as a means to acquire Winker."

 

"For a Reds team now looking to trim payroll, Suarez stands out as an expenditure that the club would probably prefer to not have on the books. Finding a suitor for Suarez in the wake of his 2021 down year won’t be easy, as teams may now see Suarez only as a one-dimensional power bat who doesn’t make much contact."

 

It was pretty much universally agreed at the time that this was a salary dump used to reduce the prospect cost of Winker and not a player that they targeted.

Edited September 26, 2022 by Grant77

[Masterbather]

AL pitching WAR (playoff contenders):

 

1. Houston: 25.1

2. New York: 18.1

3. Cleveland: 17.0

5. Toronto: 15.6

6. Tampa: 15.2

8. Seattle 13.6

9. Baltimore: 12.9

 

WAR of top 3 starters:

 

1. Houston: 12.4

2. Toronto: 12.3

3. Cleveland: 9.6

4. Tampa: 9

5. New York: 8.6

6. Seattle: 8

7. Baltimore: 4.8

 

Bullpen WAR:

 

1. Houston: 7.4

2. Cleveland: 5.9

3. New York: 5.6

5. Baltimore: 4.7

7. Seattle: 3.8

9. Tampa: 3.1

10. Toronto: 2.6

 

When you factor in the injury returns and acquisitions I think my point is well made. We're top heavy with Manoah and Gausman. We have a number three pitcher who they probably won't let pitch more than four to five innings and a number four pitcher who is Jekyll and Hyde with a mediocre bullpen that doesn't have a lot of swing and miss stuff.

 

And by the way, I'm not counting Baltimore.

[Grant77]

When you factor in the injury returns and acquisitions I think my point is well made. We're top heavy with Manoah and Gausman. We have a number three pitcher who they probably won't let pitch more than four to five innings and a number four pitcher who is Jekyll and Hyde with a mediocre bullpen that doesn't have a lot of swing and miss stuff.

 

Top heavy is less of a problem in the playoffs than it would be in the regular season. The bullpen has also been quite a bit better since we made some deadline additions. No team can put out a better pair than Gausman and Manoah.

 

Tampa probably has the most talented pitching, but there's a lot of uncertainty with McClanahan and the bullpen hasn't been as good as in recent years.

 

Seattle has the best depth of the three, but are well behind the other teams from a results standpoint. The bullpen has also imploded in September, which is concerning.

 

I can see an argument for any of the teams, but it's not as clear cut as you make it out to be in my opinion.

[Masterbather]

I think a lack of quality depth is important because it further exposes the bullpen. Also from what I understand there are fewer off days in this year's postseason which puts further stress on depth, which is bad for us.

 

There are a couple of unknowns to consider, what is Tyler Glasnow going to be? How does Nate Pearson fit in? It remains to be seen but I do think if you have to make an objective argument for the American League teams we're the most vulnerable with our pitching.

[Grant77]

I think a lack of quality depth is important because it further exposes the bullpen. Also from what I understand there are fewer off days in this year's postseason which puts further stress on depth, which is bad for us.

 

There are a couple of unknowns to consider, what is Tyler Glasnow going to be? How does Nate Pearson fit in? It remains to be seen but I do think if you have to make an objective argument for the American League teams we're the most vulnerable with our pitching.

 

Most vulnerable? Perhaps. The worst? I think not, but you're not that far off base.

 

Luckily, we are the best hitting team in the AL by wRC+, peaking at the right time, and mostly healthy.

[jaysblue]

Top heavy is less of a problem in the playoffs than it would be in the regular season. The bullpen has also been quite a bit better since we made some deadline additions. No team can put out a better pair than Gausman and Manoah.

 

Tampa probably has the most talented pitching, but there's a lot of uncertainty with McClanahan and the bullpen hasn't been as good as in recent years.

 

Seattle has the best depth of the three, but are well behind the other teams from a results standpoint. The bullpen has also imploded in September, which is concerning.

 

I can see an argument for any of the teams, but it's not as clear cut as you make it out to be in my opinion.

 

I agree having a top heavy pitching staff in the Postseason isn't a bad thing at all in comparison to over the 162 game season. Blue Jays are built well for a short Postseason series against any team, as long as they can roll out Manoah and Gausman to the max (both starting Game 1 and 2 of each series if possible). Though still the Blue Jays will have to use Stripling and Berrios both at some point whether its Game 3 of the Wildcard or in the later rounds. You know the leash will be short on Stripling, so better hope the bullpen can cover 4 or 5 innings. Berrios is that missing piece again. If he was pitching like he did prior to 2022, the Blue Jays rotation would be set!

[Jimcanuck]

apparently glasnow is stretched out

 

Glasnow is starting Wednesday against Cleveland, 45 pitch limit

[Spanky__99]

Glasnow is starting Wednesday against Cleveland, 45 pitch limit

 

I got Glasnow back before C-poop gets Bauer back, if ever. lol

[Laika]

Glasnow is starting Wednesday against Cleveland, 45 pitch limit

 

So Wednesday 45 pitches

The following Monday 60 pitches

Then 75 or 80 in a wild card series game I guess