Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[Spanky99]

Sure, but ... why would Marte even be on the block? He literally just signed with the Mets, why would they want to move him after signing him and open up the same hole they just filled?

 

Also, 20-25 million for Bryant for 4-5 years (guessing that what he ends up with)... 19 million per for Marte for the nest 4 years on top of the current long term deals on the books? No thanks at their respective ages. That would all but guarantee Vlad and Bo not getting long term extensions, unless they both took ridiculous discounts. Can't see that happening.

 

I would argue signing Freeman and trading for McNeil would be better, cost less in prospect capital and actual dollars, plus still leave the door open for Vlad and Bo extensions.

 

Ketel Marte, I believe?

[Cbert]

Sure, but ... why would Marte even be on the block? He literally just signed with the Mets, why would they want to move him after signing him and open up the same hole they just filled?

 

Also, 20-25 million for Bryant for 4-5 years (guessing that what he ends up with)... 19 million per for Marte for the nest 4 years on top of the current long term deals on the books? No thanks at their respective ages. That would all but guarantee Vlad and Bo not getting long term extensions, unless they both took ridiculous discounts. Can't see that happening.

 

I would argue signing Freeman and trading for McNeil would be better, cost less in prospect capital and actual dollars, plus still leave the door open for Vlad and Bo extensions.

 

Sorry meant Ketel, not Starling.

 

Thinking was he’s a better solution for 2B for now and can cover the OF when needed and shift out there his final year with us if Martinez is ready and Gurriel/Teo have walked.

[John_Havok]

Ketel.

 

Oh that Marte...

 

I'll see myself out.

[John_Havok]

Sorry meant Ketel, not Starling.

 

Thinking was he’s a better solution for 2B for now and can cover the OF when needed and shift out there his final year with us if Martinez is ready and Gurriel/Teo have walked.

 

Yeah my bad. A Marte trade makes tons of sense. Though I think i'd still rather sign Freeman and trade for Ketel than signing Bryant. Sure, Bryant would be cheaper, but My money would definitely be on Freeman being far more impactful for longer.

[The_DH]

If the commissioner kept crappy teams from spending money on players that won't help them so much, then maybe we could keep the salary increase in check. Seager and Semien will not turn Texas into a contender.

[Cbert]

Yeah my bad. A Marte trade makes tons of sense. Though I think i'd still rather sign Freeman and trade for Ketel than signing Bryant.

 

Hadn’t really considered that option but I do like it! It would add more to the payroll, but if it means adding a Canadian superstar, I wonder if Rogers okays an extra 10-15 mill on top of the 30 they seemed to have for Seager. I just think they still need a backend starter after all that which is why I tend to lean towards a cheaper Bryant.

[John_Havok]

Hadn’t really considered that option but I do like it! It would add more to the payroll, but if it means adding a Canadian superstar, I wonder if Rogers okays an extra 10-15 mill on top of the 30 they seemed to have for Seager. I just think they still need a backend starter after all that which is why I tend to lean towards a cheaper Bryant.

 

You're not wrong in thqat there's still rotation concerns. Top 4 is set in stone but #s 5-9 are still in flux.

[John_Havok]

30% will get injured. We need the replacements. That's just baseball nowadays.

 

Sure, but the pen list is already 16 names long with guys on the 40 man alone... with Borucki, Castro, Cimber, Danner (longshot - likely AAA), Garcia, Hatch, Kay, Logue (AAA likely), Mayza, Merryweather, Richards, Romano, Saucedo, Snead, Stripling, Thornton. I left Bowden Francis off the list as I think he will be rotation depth, same with Pearson, but ... who knows really.

 

Not to mention Phelps, De Leon, Gage and Lawrence that are already signed to minor league deals and the forthcoming additional minor league signings with ST invites that will inevitably happen.

 

My point is that there's no need to be actively seeking major league pen arms unless it's someone who is decidedly top shelf. The middle and lower shelves are pretty well stocked.

[THANOS]

Yeah my bad. A Marte trade makes tons of sense. Though I think i'd still rather sign Freeman and trade for Ketel than signing Bryant. Sure, Bryant would be cheaper, but My money would definitely be on Freeman being far more impactful for longer.

 

I agree with this.

 

That said, signing Freeman and trading for Ketal is taking on roughly 35M, while signing Bryant & trading for Ketal could be in the 25-30M range, thus saving 5-10M.

 

So the question would be two-fold, does the offensive regression of Bryant vs Freeman plus not having that 5-10M for BP/SP5 upgrades outweigh the alternative?

 

If it were up to me, I sign Freeman and trade for Ketal and call it an offseason happily without any extra upgrades to pitching on top of what we've already done.

[Cbert]

I agree with this.

 

That said, signing Freeman and trading for Ketal is taking on roughly 35M, while signing Bryant & trading for Ketal could be in the 25-30M range, thus saving 5-10M.

 

So the question would be two-fold, does the offensive regression of Bryant vs Freeman plus not having that 5-10M for BP/SP5 upgrades outweigh the alternative?

 

If it were up to me, I sign Freeman and trade for Ketal and call it an offseason happily without any extra upgrades to pitching on top of what we've already done.

 

I think the one question we have to consider is how much payroll has the FO been authorized to go to. We’re all assuming 30-35 based on the Seager rumours, but maybe they have 40-45 to play around with? I can’t imagine them offering every dollar they had left to Seager. Or that’s a soft payroll they have, and grabbing Freeman/Marte as win now moves motivates Rogers to give them a little more for pitching depth. Getting those two means two-three years of championship expectations and a few more years after that of a young, hopefully extended core to retool around through drafting and free agency.

[John_Havok]

I agree with this.

 

That said, signing Freeman and trading for Ketal is taking on roughly 35M, while signing Bryant & trading for Ketal could be in the 25-30M range, thus saving 5-10M.

 

So the question would be two-fold, does the offensive regression of Bryant vs Freeman plus not having that 5-10M for BP/SP5 upgrades outweigh the alternative?

 

If it were up to me, I sign Freeman and trade for Ketal and call it an offseason happily without any extra upgrades to pitching on top of what we've already done.

 

If you want my dream scenario... It's signing Freeman, Trading for Ramirez and a pen arm from Cleveland (say... Anthony Gose) and throwing whatever is left at Rodon for 1 year. That leaves Pearson in AAA to try and get straightened up as a rotation piece for when the inevitable injury happens, some additional pen help that is admittedly a bit of a risk but... I love lefties who can throw 100 mph.

 

The upside is enormous with a rotation of Berrios, Gausman, Manoah, Ryu, Rodon, then having Stripling, Pearson, Logue, Francis, as the 6-9 options seems like a decent start.

 

Lineup just makes me wet...

 

Springer CF

Vlad 1b/DH

Freeman 1b/DH

Ramirez 3b

Bo SS

Teo RF

Biggio 2b

LG Jr LF

Jansen C

 

Kirk

Grichuk

Espinal

whomever wins the last bench role between Lopez, Jimenez, Palacios and Smith

 

Pen

Romano

Garcia

Cimber

Mayza

Gose

Richards

Stripling

+ whomever wins the last few spots

 

Yeah, payroll might be 180 million, give or take, but that looks pretty sweet.

Edited December 28, 2021 by John_Havok

[Spanky99]

lol... we need a CBA done!

[Jimcanuck]

If you want my dream scenario... It's signing Freeman, Trading for Ramirez and a pen arm from Cleveland (say... Anthony Gose) and throwing whatever is left at Rodon for 1 year. That leaves Pearson in AAA to try and get straightened up as a rotation piece for when the inevitable injury happens, some additional pen help that is admittedly a bit of a risk but... I love lefties who can throw 100 mph.

 

The upside is enormous with a rotation of Berrios, Gausman, Manoah, Ryu, Rodon, then having Stripling, Pearson, Logue, Francis, as the 6-9 options seems like a decent start.

 

Lineup just makes me wet...

 

Springer CF

Vlad 1b/DH

Freeman 1b/DH

Ramirez 3b

Bo SS

Teo RF

Biggio 2b

LG Jr LF

Jansen C

 

Kirk

Grichuk

Espinal

whomever wins the last bench role between Lopez, Jimenez, Palacios and Smith

 

Pen

Romano

Garcia

Cimber

Mayza

Gose

Richards

Stripling

+ whomever wins the last few spots

 

Yeah, payroll might be 180 million, give or take, but that looks pretty sweet.

 

You've traded Moreno for Ramirez. Terrible.

[John_Havok]

lol... we need a CBA done!

 

Yes.... yes we do

 

According to a recent report "MLB has proposed raising the major league minimum salary from $570,500 to a series of tiers: $600,000 for players with less than a year of big league service, $650,000 for at least one but less than two and $700,000 for at least two. Each would rise $10,000 annually, to $640,000, $690,000 and $740,000 in 2026."

 

The report didn't say when this was proposed or any other details of what else was involved in the proposal.

[John_Havok]

You've traded Moreno for Ramirez. Terrible.

 

AND Gose. Clearly Gose puts that trade over the top

 

I guess the alternative would be Trading for Ketel Marte using Kirk + Groshans, but Moreno surely wouldn't be used as a backup, so enter the wonderfully s***** world of having McGuire as the backup.

 

Lineup changes to:

 

Springer CF

Vlad 1b/DH

Freeman 1b/DH

Marte 3b

Bo SS

Teo RF

Biggio 2b

LG Jr LF

Jansen C

 

McGuire

Grichuk

Espinal

whomever wins the last bench role between Lopez, Jimenez, Palacios and Smith

 

In that scenario, my boner from the starting lineup goes flaccid quickly when I think of the bench.

[Dick_Pole]

The more I think about it, the more I like this McNeil suggestion. He profiles as someone who the Jays tend to do well with. Kind of late bloomer who pulled back a bit recently and worn out his welcome on his current team. Shows sporadic signs of pop. Story similar to Encarnacion but can get on base. 25 home runs with .380 OBP which I think is achievable for him at the Rogers Centre is a decent offensive replacement for Semien. Not sure why the Mets are willing to sell low though and how low is low.

[Jimcanuck]

Jays don't need a slugging 3B. With the power already in the line-up, a .350+ OBP 3B is a good fit. If McNeil hits 15-20 bombs himself, even better.

 

McNeil is a better lineup fit then a slugging K machine like Grichuk/Chapman. Although Chapman's D gives him the overall edge over McNeil.

Edited December 31, 2021 by Jimcanuck

[John_Havok]

Dark horse candidate for the #5 rotation spot… Dan Straily. He’s coming back from Korea. Had a pretty great 2020 over there, and a not so great 2021. Threw 195 and 165 innings so wouldn’t be worried about innings limits and he would be fairly cheap with a decent chance to not suck.

 

Since he is coming back Korea he’s also free to talk to teams during the lockout even though he cannot sign a major league deal until it’s over

[JFD]

Jays don't need a slugging 3B. With the power already in the line-up, a .350+ OBP 3B is a good fit. If McNeil hits 15-30 bombs himself, even better.

 

McNeil is a better lineup fit then a slugging K machine like Grichuk/Chapman. Although Chapman's D gives him the overall edge over McNeil.

 

He also calls out and fights dbag teammates which is always a bonus

[Spanky99]

Dark horse candidate for the #5 rotation spot… Dan Straily. He’s coming back from Korea. Had a pretty great 2020 over there, and a not so great 2021. Threw 195 and 165 innings so wouldn’t be worried about innings limits and he would be fairly cheap with a decent chance to not suck.

 

Since he is coming back Korea he’s also free to talk to teams during the lockout even though he cannot sign a major league deal until it’s over

 

Eeewwwwww... think bigger.

[43211234]

Dark horse candidate for the #5 rotation spot… Dan Straily. He’s coming back from Korea. Had a pretty great 2020 over there, and a not so great 2021. Threw 195 and 165 innings so wouldn’t be worried about innings limits and he would be fairly cheap with a decent chance to not suck.

 

Since he is coming back Korea he’s also free to talk to teams during the lockout even though he cannot sign a major league deal until it’s over

 

Ehh. Could be a nice option but I wouldn't give him a major league deal. Maybe he takes a minor league invite.

[Abomination]

Dark horse candidate for the #5 rotation spot… Dan Straily. He’s coming back from Korea. Had a pretty great 2020 over there, and a not so great 2021. Threw 195 and 165 innings so wouldn’t be worried about innings limits and he would be fairly cheap with a decent chance to not suck.

 

Since he is coming back Korea he’s also free to talk to teams during the lockout even though he cannot sign a major league deal until it’s over

 

I like him better as a reliever I think. The fastball is a problem, and adding a few MPH to it would make that curve deadly.

[John_Havok]

Eeewwwwww... think bigger.

 

I’m already on board with signing Rodon. That’s why I used the words “dark horse”

[Spanky99]

Ehh. Could be a nice option but I wouldn't give him a major league deal. Maybe he takes a minor league invite.

 

This.

[Spanky99]

I’m already on board with signing Rodon. That’s why I used the words “dark horse”

 

I know, I saw your dream team. Wouldn't give him a MLB deal though.

 

I'd love Rodon on a 1 year deal, like anywhere in the 20-25 range and I wouldn't care, that'd be sick.

[John_Havok]

I know, I saw your dream team. Wouldn't give him a MLB deal though.

 

I'd love Rodon on a 1 year deal, like anywhere in the 20-25 range and I wouldn't care, that'd be sick.

 

I think Rodon will be this year’s Semien in that he ends up with a 1 year deal for the exact amount of the qualifying offer. Whether he puts up the results will be the question

[Spanky99]

I think Rodon will be this year’s Semien in that he ends up with a 1 year deal for the exact amount of the qualifying offer. Whether he puts up the results will be the question

 

If he stays relatively healthy he's a top of the rotation guy, I hope we get him and you're right.

[Jimcanuck]

2022 Rodon ~ 2021 Yates

[Key22]

There used to be chatter of the Jays lining up with the Reds on a trade.

 

With the Reds apparently wanting to dump salary and the Jays having the ability to take a bad contract (with upside) perhaps there is some deal there?

The Jays are looking to add lefty bats and perhaps they should look at one of those old school mega deals.

 

To the Jays:

 

Luis Castillo is a Berrios type - durable, eats innings - led the league in games started last year - had an abysmal start to the season but otherwise was very good. Controlled through 2024. Arbitration salaries.

 

Joey Votto - If you are going to talk about getting a LH 1b then why not Votto? He is owed $25m each of 2022 and 2023 with a $20m in 2024 (or $7m buyout). He's going to be 38 but his 36 home runs, .375 OBP and .563 slugging is still impressive. From an optics point of view it also helps that he is Canadian and Reds fans on their end would probably be okay with it. (The Jays would be taking a minimum of $57m in commitments)

 

In order to get those prizes, the jays need to take one or both of the following.

 

Mike Moustakas and his -1.0 WAR in 2021 and his below average but not atrocious defence at 3B/2B. He is owed $16m in 2022 and $18m in 2023 whit $20m in 2024 ($4m buyout) So the Jays would be taking a minimum of $38million. Still, he's been a quality player as recently as 2019 and he's another lefty bat.

 

Eugenio Suárez 3B bats right. Huge strikeout guy but still has some upside. Bit Below average defence. He's owed $11,300 in 2022, 2023, 2024 and $15m in 2025 with a $2m buyout. (Jays would take on $35m min).

 

It seems to me that because Votto and Moustakas have shorter commitments their salaries could be absorbed without impacting the signing of Bichete and Vlad.

 

If the Reds are really in salary dump mode they would be dumping $130m on the Jays.

 

Going the other way - you're still going to have to give up a lot because you're getting two very high-quality players in return and two average but hardly terrible players.

 

I think though, that the Jays could offer any number of pretty good players to be enticing enough to get it done without going crazy. Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Alejandro Kirk, Cavan Biggio, Nate Pearson from the on-field roster. Four young cheap quality players

 

From the prospect list - you're probably looking at 1 from our top 10 (Groshans) and 1 from 11-20 - more or less depending on if they're willing to take Grichuk.

 

Big trades usually come out of left field but I think Castillo really bolsters the pitching even more and adding a thumper like Votto from the left side sure would look good. Moustakas and Suarez are overpriced but not black holes.

 

Or you know

 

Sign Correa.

[The_DH]

There used to be chatter of the Jays lining up with the Reds on a trade.

 

With the Reds apparently wanting to dump salary and the Jays having the ability to take a bad contract (with upside) perhaps there is some deal there?

The Jays are looking to add lefty bats and perhaps they should look at one of those old school mega deals.

 

To the Jays:

 

Luis Castillo is a Berrios type - durable, eats innings - led the league in games started last year - had an abysmal start to the season but otherwise was very good. Controlled through 2024. Arbitration salaries.

 

Joey Votto - If you are going to talk about getting a LH 1b then why not Votto? He is owed $25m each of 2022 and 2023 with a $20m in 2024 (or $7m buyout). He's going to be 38 but his 36 home runs, .375 OBP and .563 slugging is still impressive. From an optics point of view it also helps that he is Canadian and Reds fans on their end would probably be okay with it. (The Jays would be taking a minimum of $57m in commitments)

 

In order to get those prizes, the jays need to take one or both of the following.

 

Mike Moustakas and his -1.0 WAR in 2021 and his below average but not atrocious defence at 3B/2B. He is owed $16m in 2022 and $18m in 2023 whit $20m in 2024 ($4m buyout) So the Jays would be taking a minimum of $38million. Still, he's been a quality player as recently as 2019 and he's another lefty bat.

 

Eugenio Suárez 3B bats right. Huge strikeout guy but still has some upside. Bit Below average defence. He's owed $11,300 in 2022, 2023, 2024 and $15m in 2025 with a $2m buyout. (Jays would take on $35m min).

 

It seems to me that because Votto and Moustakas have shorter commitments their salaries could be absorbed without impacting the signing of Bichete and Vlad.

 

If the Reds are really in salary dump mode they would be dumping $130m on the Jays.

 

Going the other way - you're still going to have to give up a lot because you're getting two very high-quality players in return and two average but hardly terrible players.

 

I think though, that the Jays could offer any number of pretty good players to be enticing enough to get it done without going crazy. Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Alejandro Kirk, Cavan Biggio, Nate Pearson from the on-field roster. Four young cheap quality players

 

From the prospect list - you're probably looking at 1 from our top 10 (Groshans) and 1 from 11-20 - more or less depending on if they're willing to take Grichuk.

 

Big trades usually come out of left field but I think Castillo really bolsters the pitching even more and adding a thumper like Votto from the left side sure would look good. Moustakas and Suarez are overpriced but not black holes.

 

Or you know

 

Sign Correa.

 

Votto is not getting traded anywhere. Not going to happen.

If we took on Moustakas and that large contract, we're not giving up a top 4-5 prospect. Not for 38 million guaranteed dollars.