Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[Jimcanuck]

By that logic we could shut down the board as it is not worth discussing anything... Nobody on this board has the combination of intelligence and data that a major league organization SHOULD have.

 

On the other hand there is so much weirdness in scouting rankings I wonder how inefficient player value really is.

 

A recent case is Luciano (5th overlal mlb prospect) vs Orelvis Martinez (44th)

 

Luciano : Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 65 | Run: 45 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60

Martinez: Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 60 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55

 

Their scouting rankings are the same across the board except Luciano is rated a grade higher in power and Orelvis higher in speed.

 

However Orelivs showed more power last year, 28 homers to 19. So how does this make any sense?

 

Maybe there is a reason they are ranked so far apart but I wonder whether or not the way the industry views prospects is sane.

 

I'd worry that trading Pearson and Kirk right now would be a waste, because they are at at a real low point in playing time and some traditional metrics.

 

Do we think organizations like Colorado would value Pearson, Kirk and Martinez correctly? Some organizations would, maybe a reason to expect a trade with a good organization but not a bad, just given the low points in playing time (because of missing 2020 and injuries) some of the Jays prospects are at.

 

I expect this offseason the prospect list gap between Luciano and Orelvis will narrow significantly. Luciano is still projected for more power / bat speed.

 

Would be nonsensical to trade Pearson at this point, most pitchers go through initial struggles, Giolito, Glasnow, etc. Kirk on the other hand I'm not sold on as a potential high value contributor, I think he's got some limitations.

 

Some orgs better than other for sure. Colorado, Baltimore, and Mets are the worst IMO.

[jerb]

[Spanky99]

 

lol

[Spanky99]

Kirk on the other hand I'm not sold on as a potential high value contributor, I think he's got some limitations.

 

Like what, his weight? Defensively he'll get better with more reps, I believe.

[Jimcanuck]

Like what, his weight? Defensively he'll get better with more reps, I believe.

 

His physique, lack of speed, yes. Don't get me wrong, I think he'll settle in as a 115 wRC bat, a solid regular contributor.

[Spanky99]

Well he can't run at all. And he's not going to get any quicker behind the plate as he ages. He might gain technique but unless he loses weight, he'll still be slow.

 

Dude, he's always going to be slow, but he had lost a bunch of weight last off-season, and is said to do the same this year. Yet, he seems to be what he is, a bat first catcher. Kirk has a tonne of value in trade?!

[Spanky99]

His physique, lack of speed, yes. Don't get me wrong, I think he'll settle in as a 115 wRC bat, a solid regular contributor.

 

And that carries plenty of value, not sure what Olerud's talking about. The B side carries more value, imo.

[Spanky99]

Of course he has trade value. We're going to have to decide soon because Moreno hype train is out of control. Is it worth it to have Kirk as a DH/C?

 

[Norris] "...The reviews we were getting on Gabriel Moreno were, I think, the best reviews I’ve gotten on any player in my 8 years at Baseball America. I have him as best catcher in minors.”

 

In the BA AFL podcast, these guys were nutting on the air. Moreno has like top 10 player in baseball upside right now. He's a C that would catch every game of a 7 game series.

 

The Rays would trade Kirk for a haul of pitchers.

 

I agree man, on all of that. The conversation was about his value. He has a lot is all I'm saying. The Rockies would give up Marquez for a Pearson + Kirk deal, I'd do it. Likely would have to add a bit more.

Edited October 18, 2021 by Spanky99

[Jays24]

This upcoming offseason will define the Stakins era. I'm really confident they'll come out looking great, which is not what I would have said 2 years ago lol.

[glory]

Of course he has trade value. We're going to have to decide soon because Moreno hype train is out of control. Is it worth it to have Kirk as a DH/C?

 

[Norris] "...The reviews we were getting on Gabriel Moreno were, I think, the best reviews I’ve gotten on any player in my 8 years at Baseball America. I have him as best catcher in minors.”

 

In the BA AFL podcast, these guys were nutting on the air. Moreno has like top 10 player in baseball upside right now. He's a C that would catch every game of a 7 game series.

 

The Rays would trade Kirk for a haul of pitchers.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if he gets traded this winter. Montoyo is staying, possibly long-term/forever, and down the stretch he was playing McGuire over Kirk in the team's most important games of the season. The team will need to keep DH open for Springer (over 30, lower body injuries), Vlad, etc, as a rotating position to rest guys periodically, so Kirk doesn't really help in that area. His trade value likely exceeds the value he's going to give to the team at this rate, especially if Moreno is seen as the real deal.

[Jimcanuck]

We gotta see how Moreno looks in his AFL infield reps. He had one start at 3B in the minors this year.

 

I would hate Jansen/McGuire as primary catchers. Jansen/Kirk so much better, fire McGuire and his wanker ways into the sun.

[Eat My Shatkins]

In no way did I want to see the Jays trade Kirk, but then Jansen had a nice turnaround. He may be alright after all.

 

Like I proposed earlier in this thread, I could see them packaging Kirk with Pearson for a good starting pitcher with some control. It'd be a way to fast forward Pearson's development. I suggested German Marquez.

 

Do that, then also land a good FA pitcher and the rotation would be a juggernaut for many years. Especially with a Berrios extension.

 

Berrios

*Marquez* (example)

*Stroman* (example)

Ryu

Manoah

[Jimcanuck]

In no way did I want to see the Jays trade Kirk, but then Jansen had a nice turnaround. He may be alright after all.

 

Like I proposed earlier in this thread, I could see them packaging Kirk with Pearson for a good starting pitcher with some control. It'd be a way to fast forward Pearson's development. I suggested German Marquez.

 

Do that, then also land a good FA pitcher and the rotation would be a juggernaut for many years. Especially with a Berrios extension.

 

Berrios

*Marquez* (example)

*Stroman* (example)

Ryu

Manoah

 

* health permitting

 

how many aces did the Padres trade for and how did that work out? pitchers will break your heart, it's almost better to invest in depth than aces.

[Spanky99]

In no way did I want to see the Jays trade Kirk, but then Jansen had a nice turnaround. He may be alright after all.

 

Like I proposed earlier in this thread, I could see them packaging Kirk with Pearson for a good starting pitcher with some control. It'd be a way to fast forward Pearson's development. I suggested German Marquez.

 

Do that, then also land a good FA pitcher and the rotation would be a juggernaut for many years. Especially with a Berrios extension.

 

Berrios

*Marquez* (example)

*Stroman* (example)

Ryu

Manoah

 

Personally, I like the idea. Marquez value is high though, I'd do that trade concerning where we're at in the W curve, we're ready now.

[John_Havok]

Personally, I like the idea. Marquez value is high though, I'd do that trade concerning where we're at in the W curve, we're ready now.

 

I love the idea also, I just think that the Rockies would be wanting more than Kirk + Pearson. I doubt he's even on the market TBH

[Jonn]

I like Kirk but I don’t think there should be any hesitation to trade him in the right scenario. Hes a bad body catcher that will always limit his upside. If you can cash in high on him I think you do it.

[Spanky99]

I love the idea also, I just think that the Rockies would be wanting more than Kirk + Pearson. I doubt he's even on the market TBH

 

I doubt it too.

[Omar]

This tells me Shapiro isn't going to break the bank for either guy. Doesn't mean they won't tender offers though.

 

[Spanky99]

This tells me Shapiro isn't going to break the bank for either guy. Doesn't mean they won't tender offers though.

 

 

We'll see.

[Jays24]

This tells me Shapiro isn't going to break the bank for either guy. Doesn't mean they won't tender offers though.

 

 

I think it's a no brainer that we will tender both Ray and Semien. Now whether they come back will depend on how crazy the market gets.

 

Really want Semien back though since I think he has a better chance to repeat his season.

[John_Havok]

I think it's a no brainer that we will tender both Ray and Semien. Now whether they come back will depend on how crazy the market gets.

 

Really want Semien back though since I think he has a better chance to repeat his season.

 

Matz is a no brainer also. It’s win win for the Jays. 18.4 million for 1 year of Matz would be a fine consolation prize if nobody wants him for a multi year deal that lands a pick. No such thing as a bad 1 year deal.

[John_Havok]

This tells me Shapiro isn't going to break the bank for either guy. Doesn't mean they won't tender offers though.

 

 

All he’s saying is that the goal is to make the team better, not to be stuck or beholden to resigning certain players who just had career years. He didn’t say they have no interest in bringing them back, just that resigning those two players is not the only way to make the team better.

[Jays24]

Matz is a no brainer also. It’s win win for the Jays. 18.4 million for 1 year of Matz would be a fine consolation prize if nobody wants him for a multi year deal that lands a pick. No such thing as a bad 1 year deal.

 

This I disagree with. I'd love to get Matz back but not at 1/18.4. I thought a 3/30 seemed like a good deal for him.

[Krylian]

All he’s saying is that the goal is to make the team better, not to be stuck or beholden to resigning certain players who just had career years. He didn’t say they have no interest in bringing them back, just that resigning those two players is not the only way to make the team better.

 

It's a clever way to disarm the fans from becoming married to the idea of bringing everyone back and inability to do so meaning failure.

[WryNGinger]

Matz is a no brainer also. It’s win win for the Jays. 18.4 million for 1 year of Matz would be a fine consolation prize if nobody wants him for a multi year deal that lands a pick. No such thing as a bad 1 year deal.

 

Seriously? It would take that much to bring back Matz on 1 one year deal?

[Spanky99]

Seriously? It would take that much to bring back Matz on 1 one year deal?

 

No.

[max silver]

Seriously? It would take that much to bring back Matz on 1 one year deal?

 

It very well might. If he doesn't have a qualifying offer tying him down I suspect he'll have no issues with landing a 2 or even 3 year deal. It remains to be seen if he decides to bet on himself and take the qualifying offer in hopes of solidifying his value after a good 2022 season. Of course there's risk in this if he sucks in 2022 or ends up getting hurt as he loses out on the multiple year security.

[Olerud363]

I like Kirk but I don’t think there should be any hesitation to trade him in the right scenario. Hes a bad body catcher that will always limit his upside. If you can cash in high on him I think you do it.

 

How does his bad body limit his upside? It increases risk, but the upside is huge. Especially if he gets in better shape.

 

His minor league numbers are unreal. He is one of the players with the most upside in MLB. He has the second best minor league numbers, per game, in Blue Jay history.

 

Kirk maybe has more standard deviation then anyone in baseball.

 

Reasons he could be a super star: Historically good minor league on base, slugging and k/bb. Second best in Jays history? Comparable to Delgado.

 

Reasons he could be bad: Obesity, injuries, minor league numbers could be deceptive because of low sample size. Low number of minor league games played could have future negative effects.

 

Really hard to put a value on Kirk, and no one seems to be looking at the details here. Just 'Yo Bro, fat little guy will probably just hit .240 and couldn't block Ray's slider that Friday night against the tigers'

[Virgil_Hiltz]

How does his bad body limit his upside? It increases risk, but the upside is huge. Especially if he gets in better shape.

 

His minor league numbers are unreal. He is one of the players with the most upside in MLB. He has the second best minor league numbers, per game, in Blue Jay history.

 

Kirk maybe has more standard deviation then anyone in baseball.

 

Reasons he could be a super star: Historically good minor league on base, slugging and k/bb. Second best in Jays history? Comparable to Delgado.

 

Reasons he could be bad: Obesity, injuries, minor league numbers could be deceptive because of low sample size. Low number of minor league games played could have future negative effects.

 

Really hard to put a value on Kirk, and no one seems to be looking at the details here. Just 'Yo Bro, fat little guy will probably just hit .240 and couldn't block Ray's slider that Friday night against the tigers'

 

This past season Kirk witnessed first hand what being in shape did for Vladdy, if he can't get inspired and in shape after seeing that then I say the Jays should seriously think of trading him.

[saskjayfan]

This past season Kirk witnessed first hand what being in shape did for Vladdy, if he can't get inspired and in shape after seeing that then I say the Jays should seriously think of trading him.

 

Kirk did lose weight last offseason. He was just really fat in 2019. You have to go back and look at the pictures. Dude probably lost 30lbs in the offseason. I hope he puts the work in again and comes in better next spring too.