Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[Daniel Labude]

A lot of these scenarios seem very unlikley

[Stangstag]

A lot of these scenarios seem very unlikley

 

You don't think we'll sign Ray, Semien, and trade for Jose Ramirez???

[TheHurl]

What about Chapman? Oakland loves to trade their Arb guys before their last season. They lack a need at Catcher which means pitching and one of Biggio or Espinal will have to be in the deal. It replaces Semien's projections and then some (not current production) in a less expensive way which doesn't impede on Bo or Vlad's FA time.

[BigCecil]

A lot of these scenarios seem very unlikley

 

Agree. But to me so was the Ryu and Springer signings...and the JD deal. We just dont know all the motivations on the other end of a deal.

 

I like Matt Chapman option. Even though another RHH, who K's a lot, elite D and even in a down offensive year worth 3.5 WAR.

[Daniel Labude]

You don't think we'll sign Ray, Semien, and trade for Jose Ramirez???

 

Ray and Semien is possible. At least they will try. JoRam isn't happening unless CLE really likes Biggio, Gurriel, Grichuk, Groshans, Hiraldo (some combo). Even then, if they were going to trade him they would have done it at the deadline imo. Next year they still have a solid base of hitting/pitching to build on and only 1 team in their division will be good for a while, so competing is possible. Dont see them trading him or us parting with Moreno, Orelvis, and or a bunch more top prospects for 2 years of him after parting with 2 for 1.5 of Berrios. Especially not with the SS/3B/2B available in FA

[Stangstag]

Ray and Semien is possible. At least they will try. JoRam isn't happening unless CLE really likes Biggio, Gurriel, Grichuk, Groshans, Hiraldo (some combo). Even then, if they were going to trade him they would have done it at the deadline imo. Next year they still have a solid base of hitting/pitching to build on and only 1 team in their division will be good for a while, so competing is possible. Dont see them trading him or us parting with Moreno, Orelvis, and or a bunch more top prospects for 2 years of him after parting with 2 for 1.5 of Berrios. Especially not with the SS/3B/2B available in FA

 

Yeah i was being sarcastic, it aint gonna happen. More realistic targets for 3B would be guys like Story or (kyle)Seager. I also highly doubt they sign both Ray and Semien

[G-Snarls]

Is there a reason I can't think of why Scherzer and the Dodgers won't just stay married to each other?

 

Have to think Bauer is toast, and Kershaw is a free agent too.

 

Can't imagine Kershaw ever leaving but he may need surgery

[Daniel Labude]

Yeah i was being sarcastic, it aint gonna happen. More realistic targets for 3B would be guys like Story or (kyle)Seager. I also highly doubt they sign both Ray and Semien

 

I think they can sign both, but it would come down to 1 or both liking/wanting to be here enough and possibly be fine with not taking top market value to do so

[Ryu In My House]

I tend to agree - but who the F is going to pay Seager $15M coming off his age 33 season when his wRC+ was only 99 (counting stats be damned). He's clearly in decline and there's probably a strong chance he's a 1.5 WAR player who's below average with the bat next year. If you're getting him on a 1 year, $5M deal, then sure, that minor upgrade may be worth it.

 

He meant Corey Seager I think...28-year old going into next season who had a 3.7 fWAR in 2021 despite some injuries. Kyle is not a great fit on this team for the reasons you outlined, although I thought he would be a decent deadline pick up this season.

[G-Snarls]

Reece McGuire is such a fit in Atlanta who could work in a semi-platoon with TdA. They have way too many relievers/young starters committed (I think only Martin and Smyly come off the books). I'd like to give Spencer Strider a shot at a bullpen role.

 

Did AA draft him?

[bendera3]

Did AA draft him?

 

No we got him from the Pirates.

[bendera3]

What about Chapman? Oakland loves to trade their Arb guys before their last season. They lack a need at Catcher which means pitching and one of Biggio or Espinal will have to be in the deal. It replaces Semien's projections and then some (not current production) in a less expensive way which doesn't impede on Bo or Vlad's FA time.

 

I mentioned this to my coworker who loves the A's and his response was "Just take all our good f*ckin players" I'm on board

[Jimcanuck]

Signing Kyle to entice Corey to come here was just a tongue in cheek suggestion. Likelihood 0.1%

[Olerud363]

He meant Corey Seager I think...28-year old going into next season who had a 3.7 fWAR in 2021 despite some injuries. Kyle is not a great fit on this team for the reasons you outlined, although I thought he would be a decent deadline pick up this season.

 

No Kyle. Seems like a controversial guy. It's a risk. I don't know how to peg his value. 7 fWAR over last 3 years, but that's in 320 games played.

 

Since Seager sucks so much maybe you could get him for 1 year -12 million or something, I doubt you could get him for 5 million, as someone suggested. He'll be projected for at least 2 WAR and that costs more than 5 million.

 

Here is another guy the board will probably hate -- Josh Bell

 

Big huge switch hitter with good hard hit rates but severe ground ball issues. He's like a 1.5 - 2 WAR guy at best.

 

However maybe Dante Bichette can help him out. Another risk yes. However maybe you can get him for cheap. Plug him in as DH for 155.

 

I've been thinking having a .270 .350 .500 DH with no D value, is better than rotating Randal Grichuk and guys who should be on the disabled list to hit .220 .300 .400 with no D.

[TheHurl]

Agree. But to me so was the Ryu and Springer signings...and the JD deal. We just dont know all the motivations on the other end of a deal.

 

I like Matt Chapman option. Even though another RHH, who K's a lot, elite D and even in a down offensive year worth 3.5 WAR.

 

His splits are pretty equal over his career vs. RHP and LHP though. Only thing it doesn't address (in fact it might make it worse) is the Jays inability to hit power pitching. He also struggles against power pitchers although his career numbers are considerably better in the 7th through 9th innings

[bronson44]

re-sign Semien

trade for Jose Ramirez (everyone but Moreno on the table)

destroy all baseball throwers in our path

 

re-sign Matz

sign one more depth guy

Rotation - Matz, Ryu, Berrios, Manoah, Pearson or depth guy

 

add a piece or 2 to the bullpen

[Olerud363]

What about Chapman? Oakland loves to trade their Arb guys before their last season. They lack a need at Catcher which means pitching and one of Biggio or Espinal will have to be in the deal. It replaces Semien's projections and then some (not current production) in a less expensive way which doesn't impede on Bo or Vlad's FA time.

 

Maybe Groshans would have to be the main piece of the deal.

 

I mean if Chapman's bounced back he's an MVP candidate, but he was a mess last year... how do you value that?

[G-Snarls]

No we got him from the Pirates.

 

Oh right

 

He came in the Hutch trade... duh

[G-Snarls]

What about Chapman? Oakland loves to trade their Arb guys before their last season. They lack a need at Catcher which means pitching and one of Biggio or Espinal will have to be in the deal. It replaces Semien's projections and then some (not current production) in a less expensive way which doesn't impede on Bo or Vlad's FA time.

 

Will Matt Chapman ever return to 2018/2019 form or anything close to it? I was willing to write off his 2020 season but 2021 wasn't great either. He still hits home runs but his K rate is way up (well over 30%) and his BA/OBP is way down. He kinda just looks like a league average hitter right now.

[Jimcanuck]

Isn't Chapman giving what we expect from Grich

[bendera3]

Oh right

 

He came in the Hutch trade... duh

 

No. We traded Drew Hutchison for him, Ramirez, and Liriano.

[RobinThicc]

Jays will probably try to extend Hernandez and Berrios. Then Vlad and Bo's extensions will happen in the next couple years. Those four along with Springer will cost a ton.

 

No chance they're bringing both Ray and Semien back. I think one of them gets done and they make a trade to fill in the hole the other left.

[RobinThicc]

I saw some jays fans on twitter mention Ketel Marte

[G-Snarls]

No. We traded Drew Hutchison for him, Ramirez, and Liriano.

 

That's what I meant by "came in the Hutch trade"

Edited October 5, 2021 by G-Snarls

[John_Havok]

Will Matt Chapman ever return to 2018/2019 form or anything close to it? I was willing to write off his 2020 season but 2021 wasn't great either. He still hits home runs but his K rate is way up (well over 30%) and his BA/OBP is way down. He kinda just looks like a league average hitter right now.

 

League average hitter with elite D at 3b still plays. He can hit 7th or something. It’s not a bad option but there’s no way I’d be offering any of our truly top prospects for him.

[Brownie19]

League average hitter with elite D at 3b still plays. He can hit 7th or something. It’s not a bad option but there’s no way I’d be offering any of our truly top prospects for him.

 

It will depend on what it would cost. If you're getting him at the cost of a league average batter with great defense, then you do that with the possibility his shoulder heals and he returns to an MVP type player.

[max silver]

League average hitter with elite D at 3b still plays. He can hit 7th or something. It’s not a bad option but there’s no way I’d be offering any of our truly top prospects for him.

 

It's a total surprise but that's what the Jays received in the relatively small sampling of innings this season when Espinal manned third base. I was curious how his defensive numbers stacked up so I compared him to two current defensive stalwarts in Matt Chapman and Nolan Arenado. The results are certainly interesting.

 

In 1314 innings Chapman produced 10 DRS (10.27 DRS/150), an 8.8 UZR and a whopping 17 OAA (17.5 OAA/150)

 

In 1312 innings Arenado produced 6 DRS (6.16 DRS/150), a 4.9 UZR/150 and 10 OAA (10.27 OAA/150)

 

In 551 innings Espinal produced 8 DRS (19.6 DRS/150), a 13.9 UZR/150) and 5 OAA (12.25 OAA/150)

 

When Espinal was in the lineup he also produced plenty of value on the bases and with the bat. Espinal's 2.3 BsR is tied for third on the team with Teoscar who had twice as many plate appearances. His overall FWAR was 2.2 in only 246 plate appearances. Let's say that Espinal is in the starting lineup over an entire season and he earns 550 plate appearances, which is right around what Grichuk was given in 2021. That would put him on pace for 4.9 FWAR over an entire season.

 

There is obviously no guarantee that Espinal would be able to replicate his success at the plate as he outproduced his xWOBA by 33 points. If this were to normalize it would likely take Espinal to below league average with the bat. He would still have the elite defence and excellent baserunning to offer which when combined with an almost average bat is still a fine player. Matt Chapman is almost certain to outperform Espinal over the course of a full season, but I don't know if the difference between the two is going to be large enough for it to expend the type of resources required to obtain Chapman. There's the possibility that Chapman rebounds offensively and becomes a borderline MVP candidate, but that seems unlikely as he has seen his WRC+ decline from a range of 9-15 points in each of the last 4 seasons.

 

A crazy thought would be to offer up Espinal in trade as a main piece. He's shown that he has potential to be a low cost Chapman replacement if he were able to continue this type of performance over an entire seaon.

[John_Havok]

It's a total surprise but that's what the Jays received in the relatively small sampling of innings this season when Espinal manned third base. I was curious how his defensive numbers stacked up so I compared him to two current defensive stalwarts in Matt Chapman and Nolan Arenado. The results are certainly interesting.

 

In 1314 innings Chapman produced 10 DRS (10.27 DRS/150), an 8.8 UZR and a whopping 17 OAA (17.5 OAA/150)

 

In 1312 innings Arenado produced 6 DRS (6.16 DRS/150), a 4.9 UZR/150 and 10 OAA (10.27 OAA/150)

 

In 551 innings Espinal produced 8 DRS (19.6 DRS/150), a 13.9 UZR/150) and 5 OAA (12.25 OAA/150)

 

When Espinal was in the lineup he also produced plenty of value on the bases and with the bat. Espinal's 2.3 BsR is tied for third on the team with Teoscar who had twice as many plate appearances. His overall FWAR was 2.2 in only 246 plate appearances. Let's say that Espinal is in the starting lineup over an entire season and he earns 550 plate appearances, which is right around what Grichuk was given in 2021. That would put him on pace for 4.9 FWAR over an entire season.

 

There is obviously no guarantee that Espinal would be able to replicate his success at the plate as he outproduced his xWOBA by 33 points. If this were to normalize it would likely take Espinal to below league average with the bat. He would still have the elite defence and excellent baserunning to offer which when combined with an almost average bat is still a fine player. Matt Chapman is almost certain to outperform Espinal over the course of a full season, but I don't know if the difference between the two is going to be large enough for it to expend the type of resources required to obtain Chapman. There's the possibility that Chapman rebounds offensively and becomes a borderline MVP candidate, but that seems unlikely as he has seen his WRC+ decline from a range of 9-15 points in each of the last 4 seasons.

 

A crazy thought would be to offer up Espinal in trade as a main piece. He's shown that he has potential to be a low cost Chapman replacement if he were able to continue this type of performance over an entire seaon.

 

Agreed that Espinal looks pretty good, but we’re still talking about very small datasets at the mlb level overall. Even for him to be an above average hitter he has to rely his babip being really high since very few of his batted balls will ever leave play. Is it possible? Sure. I wouldn’t necessarily count on it. His ceiling is just relatively low without any real game power. His K rate was halved this year, walk rate went up. Positive signs.

 

I like Espinal a lot for what he is, but for him to be a truly positive regular he has to have Elite defence and run a consistently high babip. That’s a tough ask. Defence can also fluctuate season to season due to a variety of factors.

 

I’m not saying it’s impossible, he did this year. I just don’t know that I’d be willing to bet that it continues. At worst though he’s a legit super utility guy that can pinch run and play multiple defensive IF positions that won’t embarrass himself with the bat. But his floor and ceiling aren’t that far apart.

 

As for him being a low cost Chapman replacement…I don’t think a highly analytical team like Oakland will be seeing him that way. Maybe the Pirates would….

[Omar]

Agreed that Espinal looks pretty good, but we’re still talking about very small datasets at the mlb level overall. Even for him to be an above average hitter he has to rely his babip being really high since very few of his batted balls will ever leave play. Is it possible? Sure. I wouldn’t necessarily count on it. His ceiling is just relatively low without any real game power. His K rate was halved this year, walk rate went up. Positive signs.

 

I like Espinal a lot for what he is, but for him to be a truly positive regular he has to have Elite defence and run a consistently high babip. That’s a tough ask. Defence can also fluctuate season to season due to a variety of factors.

 

I’m not saying it’s impossible, he did this year. I just don’t know that I’d be willing to bet that it continues. At worst though he’s a legit super utility guy that can pinch run and play multiple defensive IF positions that won’t embarrass himself with the bat. But his floor and ceiling aren’t that far apart.

 

As for him being a low cost Chapman replacement…I don’t think a highly analytical team like Oakland will be seeing him that way. Maybe the Pirates would….

 

I've been saying to give Espy a shot, but for his glove. I'm not convinced that 2021 Espinal isn't a mirage at the plate. A guy like him, a punch and judy hitter, could hit .195 next year. High risk, moderate reward, #9 hitter.

[FantasyNewb]

The Marlins are prioritizing a good C in the offseason. We have a surplus, and they have a surplus in arms. What's a realistic and fair trade for both teams?