Offseason Roster Thread 2019-2020

[Laika]

That is pretty rich. He might approach the Patrick Corbin contract (which would not be insane, all things considered - they are comparable.)

 

Wheeler is a 1990 birthday, Corbin is a 1989.

Wheeler has 8.9 fWAR in the last two years, Corbin had 8.9 fWAR in 2017+2018

 

Corbin last year had a slightly longer track record. About 150 more IP and ~3 more career fWAR.

Corbin was the top arm on the market though and Wheeler is not, he is the #3 arm.

 

5/100 is an underpayment for Wheeler relative to Corbin. 6/120 would be a decent deal for the team but I don't think it makes sense for Toronto given where they are. 6/140, the Corbin number, would be a good get for Wheeler and would be surprising but it wouldn't be completely insane.

[BTS]

That is pretty rich. He might approach the Patrick Corbin contract (which would not be insane, all things considered - they are comparable.)

 

Wheeler is a 1990 birthday, Corbin is a 1989.

Wheeler has 8.9 fWAR in the last two years, Corbin had 8.9 fWAR in 2017+2018

 

Corbin last year had a slightly longer track record. About 150 more IP and ~3 more career fWAR.

Corbin was the top arm on the market though and Wheeler is not, he is the #3 arm.

 

5/100 is an underpayment for Wheeler relative to Corbin. 6/120 would be a decent deal for the team but I don't think it makes sense for Toronto given where they are. 6/140, the Corbin number, would be a good get for Wheeler and would be surprising but it wouldn't be completely insane.

 

It's an interesting comparison. I trusted Corbin's skills a lot more going into 2019 than I trust Wheeler's going into 2020. I see a guy who's pitched like a 3-3.5 win starter and been pretty fortunate in suppressing homeruns on fly balls. I get that there are reasons to think improving his pitch mix will help him take a big step, but I have a hard time buying him as a good investment at 110M or whatever he ends up getting. I think I'd rather have Keuchel at like 4/60 or something.

[Grant77]

I'm in on Wheeler for 5 years and 100 million, maybe a bit more on the dollars. I think that 6 years is too much for us, however.

[Ray]

Mets are looking to move their bad contracts. I would love to be able to get Dominic Smith for nothing if we’re willing to give some salary relief to the Mets.

[Barkerfan23]

Saddened by the lack of enthusiasm around Wheeler. He is a 4 plus WAR pitcher who has pitched almost 200 innings 3 of the last 4 years

 

Same $$ as AJ 15 years ago, once adjusted for inflation

 

Sign me up for 5/110

[saskjayfan]

I have no interest in Wheeler at that price. He has a long history of arm issues, and is running like a 3.9 xFIP pitching in the NL over the last two years. I think the most likely outcome is that you pay 100M for 5 years of a 3-win starter who is rarely healthy enough to provide 3 wins of value.

 

I’ll play devils advocate. Wheeler throws 97 with good movement. He has above average spin rates and is amongst the league leaders in weak contact. Maybe surpressing home runs is less about luck and more about stuff. He has 750 innings under his belt. That is not a lot of innings. His walk rate is trending in the right direction. He certainly could still be developing from a pitching standpoint. He could take that next step and be a five or six win pitcher.

 

If he is truly healthy now, maybe the lack of mileage on that arm is a good thing. His contract comes with a lot of risk in the 20 AAv level for 5 maybe 6 years, but if he turns into a 6 win pitcher whoever signs him will look like geniuses.

[glory]

Mets are looking to move their bad contracts. I would love to be able to get Dominic Smith for nothing if we’re willing to give some salary relief to the Mets.

 

The two names mentioned are Lowrie (1/10 remaining) and Familia (2/23). Clearly if the Jays were to take back a bad contract, Lowrie would be the ideal one. If you think Dominic Smith's 2019 is sustainable, and you can get him for nothing except taking back $10M in dead money, it's worth looking into.

[Brownie19]

Unlike most of the FA starters, Wheeler has the upside to transform into a top 10 pitcher (ala G.Cole). Chances of that happening are (always) relatively low, but they aren't anywhere near zero. Guys like Keuchel, Porcello, Hamels, Bailey, Roark, etc. don't have that upside. On a team that needs top of the rotation arms (v. depth) that has to interest us (especially given his age).

 

Regarding the durability - he's been healthy the past 2 years. Every pitcher is a ticking time bomb. Guys like Ryu and Strasburg must have as much, if not more risk that Wheeler. With the depth we have, I'm all for getting Wheeler and taking a risk on Jimmy Nelson, T.Walker and even Pineda (although he'll cost most). Guys who also have big upside (but also huge risk). We already have a lot of steady eddies who don't move the needle much.

[L54]

I’d give Wheeler 5/110 and cough up the pick but he’ll probably cost more than that judging how the free agent market has been thus far

[Ray]

4-seamer

Wheeler: .285 xWOBA, 96.8 mph avg, 2341 rpm spin, 13.1 inches of vertical drop, 10.5 inches of horizontal break

Cole: .243 xWOBA, 97.1 mph avg, 2530 rpm spin, 10.9 inches of vertical drop, 11.4 inches of horizontal break

 

Slider

Wheeler: .298 xWOBA, 91.2 mph avg, 2386 rpm spin, 26.2 inches of vertical drop, 2.1 inches of horizontal break

Cole: .217 xWOBA, 89.2 mph avg, 2622 rpm spin, 31.8 inches of vertical drop, 4.9 inches of horizontal break

 

Changeup

Wheeler: .297 xWOBA, 89.0 mph avg, 1771 rpm spin, 24.1 inches of vertical drop, 12.4 inches of horizontal break

Cole: .240 xWOBA, 88.6 mph avg, 1870 rpm spin, 22.9 inches of vertical drop, 15.3 inches of horizontal break

 

Curveball

Wheeler: .210 xWOBA, 80.7 mph avg, 2647 rpm spin, 54.1 inches of vertical drop, 8.1 inches of horizontal break

Cole: .252 xWOBA, 82.6 mph avg, 2901 rpm spin, 55.6 inches of vertical drop, 11.7 inches of horizontal break

 

Just writing that out, it's quite obvious Cole is better by most every pitch, but there's a good Cole-esque pitcher hiding in Zack Wheeler somewhere. Mets also had him inexplicably throw as many sinkers as 4-seamers in 2019 despite one being vastly superior to the other.

 

The real danger with Wheeler is the injury risk, but I guess the positive there is he doesn't as many miles on his arm either.

[Ray]

Jays also interested in Ryu and Keuchel, as per Morosi on MLB Network Radio.

[saskjayfan]

I’d give Wheeler 5/110 and cough up the pick but he’ll probably cost more than that judging how the free agent market has been thus far

 

I'd give him that too, even 6/120 and given where our payroll is right now, we could front load it to some degree to give us flexibility on the back side of the deal.

[Barkerfan23]

Jays also interested in Ryu and Keuchel, as per Morosi on MLB Network Radio.

 

Ryu is not coming here

 

He will stay in LA

[jaysblue]

Unlike most of the FA starters, Wheeler has the upside to transform into a top 10 pitcher (ala G.Cole). Chances of that happening are (always) relatively low, but they aren't anywhere near zero. Guys like Keuchel, Porcello, Hamels, Bailey, Roark, etc. don't have that upside. On a team that needs top of the rotation arms (v. depth) that has to interest us (especially given his age).

 

Regarding the durability - he's been healthy the past 2 years. Every pitcher is a ticking time bomb. Guys like Ryu and Strasburg must have as much, if not more risk that Wheeler. With the depth we have, I'm all for getting Wheeler and taking a risk on Jimmy Nelson, T.Walker and even Pineda (although he'll cost most). Guys who also have big upside (but also huge risk). We already have a lot of steady eddies who don't move the needle much.

 

Wheeler reminds me of AJ Burnett during the 2005 offseason. Would love to see the Blue Jays go the extra mile on Wheeler as a long term investment.

[jaysblue]

Ryu is not coming here

 

He will stay in LA

 

We have a lot of good Korean restaurants in Toronto though...

 

He likely stays on the west coast and in the NL.

[Maico450]

Wheeler reminds me of AJ Burnett during the 2005 offseason. Would love to see the Blue Jays go the extra mile on Wheeler as a long term investment.

 

A.J. Burnett. Please don't remind me.

[Grant77]

A.J. Burnett. Please don't remind me.

 

Over 10 WAR in 3 seasons was pretty solid for Burnett. I'd be happy if we signed Wheeler and got a similar result.

[Barkerfan23]

We have a lot of good Korean restaurants in Toronto though...

 

He likely stays on the west coast and in the NL.

 

We have found out over and over again that the asian players dont care about the Asian community in Toronto

[Barkerfan23]

Over 10 WAR in 3 seasons was pretty solid for Burnett. I'd be happy if we signed Wheeler and got a similar result.

 

Not to mention using the current rule we would have qualified for the second wild card in 2006

[Maico450]

No you wouldn't. A J Burnett was the biggest FA signing disappointment in the Jays history. He was hurt every time you turned around. He had one good year, his walk year.

[Laika]

No you wouldn't. A J Burnett was the biggest FA signing disappointment in the Jays history. He was hurt every time you turned around. He had one good year, his walk year.

 

I’m sorry, but what the f*** is this post?

[Maico450]

I’m sorry, but what the f*** is this post?

 

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/blue-jays-signed-a-j-burnett-at-2005-meetings-c263084820

 

At the time, signing AJ was a huge deal to Toronto fans. It would be like us getting Cole now. The first 2 seasons, AJ was hurt regularly. Then he has a good 3rd season,

and exercises his opt out clause, going to the Yanks. Major disappointment.

[jays4life19]

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/blue-jays-signed-a-j-burnett-at-2005-meetings-c263084820

 

At the time, signing AJ was a huge deal to Toronto fans. It would be like us getting Cole now. The first 2 seasons, AJ was hurt regularly. Then he has a good 3rd season,

and exercises his opt out clause, going to the Yanks. Major disappointment.

 

We paid him roughly 40 million over 4 years and he produced around 10 fWAR and you're going to call that the Biggest FA signing disappointment?

 

Ca mon, man.

[glory]

[Maico450]

We paid him roughly 40 million over 4 years and he produced around 10 fWAR and you're going to call that the Biggest FA signing disappointment?

 

Ca mon, man.

 

That was in 2006 dollars. I said Blue Jays history. Bill Caudill was also a huge disappointment.

[Orgfiller]

We paid him roughly 40 million over 4 years and he produced around 10 fWAR and you're going to call that the Biggest FA signing disappointment?

 

Ca mon, man.

 

Also approximately equal RA-9 WAR so it's not like his ERA was vastly worse. Shocking thing to say.

[keggy]

That was in 2006 dollars. I said Blue Jays history. Bill Caudill was also a huge disappointment.

 

We paid him approximately 28 million over 3 years, depending on how they divided his signing bonus. He provided about 10 wins of value during this time. $ per WAR was not a thing in 2008 but this is colossal surplus value.

 

Finally, he opted out, signed a larger contract with the Yankees for the same number of years at an older age and pitched worse.

[Orgfiller]

Barry Zito signed a 7/126 deal in the 2006 offseason and this guy is talking about how Burnett was an expensive signing "in 2006 dollars" lmao.

[Laika]

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/blue-jays-signed-a-j-burnett-at-2005-meetings-c263084820

 

At the time, signing AJ was a huge deal to Toronto fans. It would be like us getting Cole now. The first 2 seasons, AJ was hurt regularly. Then he has a good 3rd season,

and exercises his opt out clause, going to the Yanks. Major disappointment.

 

If you’re bum is still sore about him opting out then just admit it. The fact that you are sour about him leaving seems to invalidate your position that the contract was a failure!

[BTS]

Didn't the team also snag a comp pick when Burnett left, tying a nice little bow on an already successful FA signing?