Blue Jays Clutch Plays: Week 3

Welcome back to Blue Jays Clutch Plays, a recurring post that highlights the six most pivotal plays (three pitching, three hitting) from the past week of Blue Jays baseball, according to MLB's win probability model. Click here to read last week's edition.

It's been a trying opening month for the Blue Jays as they dropped two out of three in both Milwaukee and Arizona this week. Saturday's late defeat to the Diamondbacks marked their sixth consecutive series loss, which hadn't happened since 2012. They once again failed to make it through the week without someone getting hurt, as Daulton Varsho departed Friday with discomfort in the quad/knee area, although it was decided medical imaging wasn't necessary. The bats continued to be ice-cold before cathartically waking up on Sunday, as an eight-run first inning helped them avoid getting swept in the desert. Anaheim will be the last stop on the Jays' three-city road trip this week before they return home to face the Guardians on the weekend.

Pitching

3. Louis Varland: Joey Ortiz Strikeout, Bot 9, 4/14 (+9.9% wPA)

Louis Varland's tightrope act on Tuesday night reignited talks about who should be closing games for the Blue Jays. After Jeff Hoffman walked Garrett Mitchell to load the bases and place the winning run just 90 feet away, Varland came in and struck out Joey Ortiz on three pitches, blowing him away with a 99-mph fastball up and in to send the game to extras. The series opener against the Brewers contained many twists and turns, with nine total runs being scored in the ninth and 10th innings, but it was Varland slamming the door that paved the way for the offense to come through in the next frame.

2. Jeff Hoffman: Gary Sanchez Strikeout, Bot 9, 4/14 (+9.9% wPA)

Even after he gave up a run and put the tying run in scoring position on Tuesday, Hoffman put himself in a good position to hang onto the lead after striking out Gary Sanchez with a fastball perfectly positioned above the belt. According to Statcast, the Blue Jays had a 75% chance of winning after this play, but the next three batters reached before Varland was called upon to get the final out. In addition to blowing this save opportunity, Hoffman gave up a tiebreaking grand slam to Corbin Carroll in the eighth inning on Saturday.

1. Max Scherzer: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Strikeout, Bot 4, 4/18 (+9.9% wPA)

It's not usual that a strikeout in the fourth inning of a tie game stands as the most pivotal play in an entire week for a pitching staff, but this Max Scherzer strikeout became a big win probability swing for Toronto, as Tyler Heineman was credited with a caught stealing on the play after former Blue Jay Lourdes Gurriel Jr. interfered with his throw to second base. Geraldo Perdomo beat the throw, but the Jays successfully challenged for interference on the part of Gurriel to turn it into a double play. Props to the video department.

Hitting

3. Myles Straw: 2-RBI Double, Top 10, 4/14 (+24.5% wPA)

It was quite the week at the plate for Myles Straw, who cashed in the eventual winning run on Tuesday with this laser down the left field line before homering on Friday in Arizona. The Blue Jays had already plated one in the inning, but a one-run lead isn't often safe with the extra innings ghost runner. Straw turned on an inner-half fastball from sidearm reliever Grant Anderson and lined it into the corner for some key insurance runs on the way to a series-opening win over the Brewers.

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: RBI Double, Top 10, 4/14 (+28.7% wPA)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the one who initially broke that scoreless tie in the 10th, scoring Ernie Clement from second on a screeching 111-mph liner off the base of the wall in left-center field. Guerrero has been seeing a lot of good breaking balls early in the season after his postseason tirade, but he can make anyone pay for hanging a sweeper like this. He would experience some frustration later in this series, failing to come through in multiple key spots during the Blue Jays' consecutive 2-1 losses to the Brewers on Wednesday and Thursday, but this was his most crucial hit in what was a productive week overall.

1. Davis Schneider: Ground-Rule Double, Top 9, 4/14 (+33.8% wPA)

The latest Clutch Play of the Week was brought to you by Davis Schneider, who drilled a fastball over the center-field wall on a bounce for a double. Plays like these give a proper glimpse into how win probability works: Kazuma Okamoto's game-tying single, Andrés Giménez's go-ahead RBI groundout, and Ernie Clement's RBI single drove in the runs that actually flipped the scoreboard in the ninth, but it was Schneider's hit that went down as the most pivotal one in that sequence because it put the go-ahead run in scoring position with nobody out.