2017 Blue Jays Spring Training thread

[King]

Shi Davidi‏Verified account @ShiDavidi 16m16 minutes ago

Stadium gun "wasn't working" during Roberto Osuna's inning. Gets pop to second, fly ball to LF and a strikeout looking in clean inning.

 

Shi Davidi‏Verified account @ShiDavidi 1m1 minute ago

Stadium gun "fixed" for T7 with Dominic Leone on mound.

[Brownie19]

Shi Davidi‏Verified account @ShiDavidi 16m16 minutes ago

Stadium gun "wasn't working" during Roberto Osuna's inning. Gets pop to second, fly ball to LF and a strikeout looking in clean inning.

 

Shi Davidi‏Verified account @ShiDavidi 1m1 minute ago

Stadium gun "fixed" for T7 with Dominic Leone on mound.

 

velocitygate 2017.

[Krylian]

Osuna is done. Trade him before the season starts and everyone figures it out.

[Pendleton]

Osuna threw so hard it they had to reset the radar gun, kid continues to impress.

[Slade]

Bo Schultz got TJS.

[Terminator]

Bo Schultz got TJS.

 

I'm sure gutting out 50 pitches while being injured on Canada Day didn't help.

[burlingtonbandit]

Could easily just have asked a scout what he was throwing.

[george09]

Gregor Chisholm in his Q&A yesterday

 

"You might not want to hear this, but the Blue Jays remain committed to Smoak at first base. He's going to receive every opportunity to win the bulk of the playing time, and this experiment isn't going to end in a week. If Smoak struggles like he did last year, Steve Pearce will eventually see his workload increase. But for the moment, this is still Smoak's job to lose."

[Terminator]

Gregor Chisholm in his Q&A yesterday

 

"You might not want to hear this, but the Blue Jays remain committed to Smoak at first base. He's going to receive every opportunity to win the bulk of the playing time, and this experiment isn't going to end in a week. If Smoak struggles like he did last year, Steve Pearce will eventually see his workload increase. But for the moment, this is still Smoak's job to lose."

 

Geezus...love this FO but their insistence on this guy is nuts.

[Boxcar]

Gregor Chisholm in his Q&A yesterday

 

"You might not want to hear this, but the Blue Jays remain committed to Smoak at first base. He's going to receive every opportunity to win the bulk of the playing time, and this experiment isn't going to end in a week. If Smoak struggles like he did last year, Steve Pearce will eventually see his workload increase. But for the moment, this is still Smoak's job to lose."

 

So he's been trash since we got him

Trash in spring

Pretty much guaranteed to be trash during the season

 

And we are going to cede playing time for Steve Pearce to keep this retarded dream alive.

 

Wtf Shatkins.

[Laika]

Bizarre.

[Terminator]

He's old enough that he could be entering his decline years while Shatkins is still waiting for a breakout.

 

If we were the cash strapped Rays then taking a chance on his profile makes sense but we are a contender and giving him ABs makes little sense.

[BTS]

He's old enough that he could be entering his decline years while Shatkins is still waiting for a breakout.

 

If we were the cash strapped Rays then taking a chance on his profile makes sense but we are a contender and giving him ABs makes little sense.

 

30 years old and just about 3000 PA of replacement-level play. It's very weird that they seem to think a breakout is around the corner.

[43211234]

So Bo got his TJS and Osuna and Sanchez are just a matter of time!

[John_Havok]

Regress doesn't mean you get worse. It means you return to the mean. Stroman had a better FIP and XFIP in 2014-2015 than he did in 2016. So regression for him would mean an improvement over 2016. I call that a positive regression even though it's actually just a regression but the word regression has such a negative connotation that I find it clarifying to distinguish a regression going in a positive direction from one going the other way (which is the kind that is being alluded to 95% of the time the word regression gets used.

 

People confuse regression with retrogression(the opposite of PROgression) all the time.

[Gary]

What's wrong with Osunas velocity? Is he injured? TJS for him now too?

[glory]

This makes no sense. By all accounts the Jays made Pearce one of their top priorities this winter, and he even confirmed it. So if they knew they wanted him, and wanted Smoak to play everyday/against righties, then that means they signed Pearce to play LF. I mean, I guess it's better to have him in the lineup in some capacity, but why turn above average defence at first to below average defence in left just to accommodate Justin freakin Smoak? The internal LF options aren't the greatest, but come on. Just sign Pagan and release Smoak. We aren't the Rays.

 

THis is clearly on the front office. Gibbons would probably prefer playing Zeke as much as possible with Pearce at first (as evidenced by Smoak riding pine for much of the last two years), but he'll be forced to do this lineup for at least a month, maybe more. If Pearce gets hurt playing the outfield, then that would be horrible.

[dineke]

This makes no sense. By all accounts the Jays made Pearce one of their top priorities this winter, and he even confirmed it. So if they knew they wanted him, and wanted Smoak to play everyday/against righties, then that means they signed Pearce to play LF. I mean, I guess it's better to have him in the lineup in some capacity, but why turn above average defence at first to below average defence in left just to accommodate Justin freakin Smoak? The internal LF options aren't the greatest, but come on. Just sign Pagan and release Smoak. We aren't the Rays.

 

THis is clearly on the front office. Gibbons would probably prefer playing Zeke as much as possible with Pearce at first (as evidenced by Smoak riding pine for much of the last two years), but he'll be forced to do this lineup for at least a month, maybe more. If Pearce gets hurt playing the outfield, then that would be horrible.

 

Jays' secret analytics says smoak is a stud

[Laika]

This makes no sense. By all accounts the Jays made Pearce one of their top priorities this winter, and he even confirmed it. So if they knew they wanted him, and wanted Smoak to play everyday/against righties, then that means they signed Pearce to play LF. I mean, I guess it's better to have him in the lineup in some capacity, but why turn above average defence at first to below average defence in left just to accommodate Justin freakin Smoak? The internal LF options aren't the greatest, but come on. Just sign Pagan and release Smoak. We aren't the Rays.

 

THis is clearly on the front office. Gibbons would probably prefer playing Zeke as much as possible with Pearce at first (as evidenced by Smoak riding pine for much of the last two years), but he'll be forced to do this lineup for at least a month, maybe more. If Pearce gets hurt playing the outfield, then that would be horrible.

 

Meh, let it play out.

 

I understand why people hate the Justin Smoak thing, but obviously the Jays think there is something there. I'm not sure what it is, but they have a lot more information than us.

 

Someone like Angel Pagan doesn't move the needle much for this roster. Having moving parts is a pretty good thing for a baseball team. Right now Pearce could end up at 1st or left field. If Pompey breaks out or Upton looks productive while Smoak sucks again, then Pearce is the 1B. If Smoak turns into a useful player then Pearce can play left. Let's see what happens.

 

The time to call for Smoakie being cut was back when viable starters were still available in free agency - guys like Valbuena, Napoli, Moss. That's just not the situation anymore; Pagan is 35/36 and does not project well.

[glory]

I'd feel better if there was something out there about Smoak tweaking something, either his swing, approach, or whatever. A lot of late bloomers make adjustments which lead to the breakout. If it's the same old Smoak, then I honestly can't understand what they see or what they are expecting to happen.

 

If the Smoakster has a breakout season and becomes what they apparently envision him to be, then I'll happily admit I was wrong, but god damn it makes no sense. The time to take a chance on him was two years ago, and the Jays did. He didn't pan out. On to the next.

 

I agree that Pagan doesn't move the needle, but he's more likely to be a 1 win player than Smoak is. Even a 1 win improvement for cheap would be a solid add this time of year.

[Laika]

I'd feel better if there was something out there about Smoak tweaking something, either his swing, approach, or whatever. A lot of late bloomers make adjustments which lead to the breakout. If it's the same old Smoak, then I honestly can't understand what they see or what they are expecting to happen.

 

If the Smoakster has a breakout season and becomes what they apparently envision him to be, then I'll happily admit I was wrong, but god damn it makes no sense. The time to take a chance on him was two years ago, and the Jays did. He didn't pan out. On to the next.

 

I agree that Pagan doesn't move the needle, but he's more likely to be a 1 win player than Smoak is. Even a 1 win improvement for cheap would be a solid add this time of year.

 

Last year, it somehow became evident that the proprietary and non-public HitFX stuff thought Smoak was a true talent ~.350 wOBA hitter, or something like that. I'm assuming that something like that is still characterizing Smoak as a good bet to start hitting.

 

I mean it's not like everything is awful with Smoak. In the last two years he has a .208 ISO and 32 dingers, and that's in 669 PA so one full season. He also has a good walk rate. And, for most of his career the contact rate has been pretty good for a power hitter. Some ingredients are there... I dunno. He'll probably suck and I agree that he should have been cut loose, but we'll see.

[flafson]

I'd feel better if there was something out there about Smoak tweaking something, either his swing, approach, or whatever. A lot of late bloomers make adjustments which lead to the breakout. If it's the same old Smoak, then I honestly can't understand what they see or what they are expecting to happen.

 

If the Smoakster has a breakout season and becomes what they apparently envision him to be, then I'll happily admit I was wrong, but god damn it makes no sense. The time to take a chance on him was two years ago, and the Jays did. He didn't pan out. On to the next.

 

I agree that Pagan doesn't move the needle, but he's more likely to be a 1 win player than Smoak is. Even a 1 win improvement for cheap would be a solid add this time of year.

 

He did adopt the Donaldson line of thought of hitting fly balls.

But then again, that probably happened last season.

[glory]

Yeah his hard contact rate is good, hits a lot of fly balls, and draws walks around 10%. The skill set is intriguing, but at age 30, I don't know how likely it is he turns into anything. I guess we have no choice but to find out. I hope he pans out.

[burlingtonbandit]

Smoak's issue is he just can't hit a breaking ball from any pitcher. His following run values against pitches the last 2 years:

 

FB 12.7

SL -11.7

CB -8.9

CH 8.8

 

 

He should be used against SP who are primary FB-CH as its clear he is pretty good at hitting those pitches but he can't make contact with the breaking ball. Looking at the batted profile it seems like he should have hit for more power. Even his ceiling seems seems like like a 110wRC+ which would make him worth barely 1 Win.

[Orgfiller]

Smoak's issue is he just can't hit a breaking ball from any pitcher. His following run values against pitches the last 2 years:

 

FB 12.7

SL -11.7

CB -8.9

CH 8.8

 

 

He should be used against SP who are primary FB-CH as its clear he is pretty good at hitting those pitches but he can't make contact with the breaking ball. Looking at the batted profile it seems like he should have hit for more power. Even his ceiling seems seems like like a 110wRC+ which would make him worth barely 1 Win.

Still, in this day and age every pitcher has at least one breaking ball, even if a below-average one. Everyone knows Smoak's weakness at making contact on those, so even if the pitcher was predominantly FB-CH they'd change up the gameplan for him.

[KingKat]

Still, in this day and age every pitcher has at least one breaking ball, even if a below-average one. Everyone knows Smoak's weakness at making contact on those, so even if the pitcher was predominantly FB-CH they'd change up the gameplan for him.

 

What's weird is trying to consolidate this information with how the team seems to value him. He's not a good hitter or a good fielder. He does have great raw power but surely the team is aware of his track record of failing to convert that into results and the underlying factors that cause that. The only explanation I can see is that there's greater value in his ability to field other player's throw that any one of us can accurately measure at the moment because it's not just Smoak. There seems to be a shift away from statuesque power hitter and towards a different kind of 1B that's happening across the game. It echoes to how catcher valuations changed when pitch framing was better captured. Teams seem to have some sort of insight into a 1B's impact on run prevention that's greater than what was previously understood. That's my pet theory anyways.

[burlingtonbandit]

Still, in this day and age every pitcher has at least one breaking ball, even if a below-average one. Everyone knows Smoak's weakness at making contact on those, so even if the pitcher was predominantly FB-CH they'd change up the gameplan for him.

 

For sure which has already happened. Saw a career high 15.5% Curves last year. If a pitcher has a bad breaking ball he'd at least do better against it and sometimes pitchers throw what they are comfortable throwing and won't just feed him breaking ball after breaking ball.

[Spanky99]

I found these two separate clips rather funny... Davidi's saying don't worry about 1B and LF in the morning...

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/davidi-jays-1b-lf-situation-not-bad/

 

And in the afternoon Jonah Keri says the exact opposite, and does poke fun at Davidi...

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/keri-jays-horrible-1b-lf-scenarios-makes-playoffs-tricky/

 

Also of note for cause of a bit of concern... Osuna's throwing/sitting 3 to 4 mph less than last year. Hopefully it's just because of lack of innings.

[Brownie19]

I don't know how you describe LF and 1st base as horrible situations without acknowledging that Pearce should fill one of those spots - and he's not horrible, he's really good.

 

If you're ignoring Pearce because you're concerned he can't play a full season - then you should add 2nd base into the list of "horrible situations".

[gruber92]

What's weird is trying to consolidate this information with how the team seems to value him. He's not a good hitter or a good fielder. He does have great raw power but surely the team is aware of his track record of failing to convert that into results and the underlying factors that cause that. The only explanation I can see is that there's greater value in his ability to field other player's throw that any one of us can accurately measure at the moment because it's not just Smoak. There seems to be a shift away from statuesque power hitter and towards a different kind of 1B that's happening across the game. It echoes to how catcher valuations changed when pitch framing was better captured. Teams seem to have some sort of insight into a 1B's impact on run prevention that's greater than what was previously understood. That's my pet theory anyways.

 

There's no way to sugarcoat this. Shapiro made a mistake in offering Smoak a two year deal and he isn't going to undermine that decision before the season starts. Smoak will get plenty of playing time in the first 4-6 weeks of the season, and if he's still the same old Smoak, he'll become a bench bat/defensive replacement. It sucks because he'll cost us a few wins during his audition which could make or break a playoff birth.

 

The obvious better scenarios would be Pearce at first base with an Upton/Carrera/Pompey left field or Pearce in left field and a combination of Morales / Tellez splitting 1B/DH duties. The latter may happen in late May if Smoak is Smoak and Tellez is tearing up AAA.