2017 Blue Jays Spring Training thread

[Orgfiller]

I guess Morales has been crap at 1st base in workouts because they say he would get a string of playing time there to see what he can do but literally hasn't played the field once unless I'm missing something?

 

I think with Pearce in the lineup they're forced to play Morales at DH. They probably want to take it easy with him.

[Pendleton]

It just feels like Osuna is going to have a trip up this year. He has been far too good far too young.

 

I kind of feel bad when these attention seeking posts of yours go unanswered due to everyone having you on IL.

[jays4life19]

Is there a stream for the game today?

[VE2OH]

I have 4 tickets for the game tomorrow!!!!!!!

[Orgfiller]

I kind of feel bad when these attention seeking posts of yours go unanswered due to everyone having you on IL.

 

Lol

[jays4life19]

Upton and Tulo with dingers. jays up 3-2.

[Sammy225]

Travis with a double and a triple today

[jays4life19]

Bases juiced for Tulo. Jays in beast mode this inning.

[Spanky99]

Bases juiced for Tulo. Jays in beast mode this inning.

 

I'm always in Beastmode...

[HERPDERP]

not on TV right? all I see is Boston & Pittsburgh

[Spanky99]

not on TV right? all I see is Boston & Pittsburgh

 

Just the radio.

[Melvin]

JD breaks the goose egg!

[Daniel Labude]

JD breaks the goose egg!

 

Good to see...not good that Estrada is getting lit up though

[Spanky99]

Good to see...not good that Estrada is getting lit up though

 

He said he was going to work on something this game, likely plate command. He's dialed it back as a starter, come opening day.

[glory]

vs LHP yes.. Not so much against RHP.

 

Even against righties, I'd take it over Smoak at first and Pearce in left. Maybe Upton can run into one every now and then while playing much better defence. Unless the Jays sign Pagan or have someone else who can actually hit righties and play a competent outfield, they'll have to go with whoever is hotter between Upton and Zeke, but if the alternative is Smoak at first and Pearce running around in the outfield, I'll take the Upton/Zeke combo.

 

Smoak really has no business on this team.

[burlingtonbandit]

Even against righties, I'd take it over Smoak at first and Pearce in left. Maybe Upton can run into one every now and then while playing much better defence. Unless the Jays sign Pagan or have someone else who can actually hit righties and play a competent outfield, they'll have to go with whoever is hotter between Upton and Zeke, but if the alternative is Smoak at first and Pearce running around in the outfield, I'll take the Upton/Zeke combo.

 

Smoak really has no business on this team.

 

I wouldn't. Upton has a 74 wRC+ over the last 4 years which makes him complete garbage. Smoak has a 111 wRC+ over that same time period. Unless Upton was a Pillar like defender in LF that is not worth the loss in offence.

[Spanky99]

I wouldn't. Upton has a 74 wRC+ over the last 4 years which makes him complete garbage. Smoak has a 111 wRC+ over that same time period. Unless Upton was a Pillar like defender in LF that is not worth the loss in offence.

 

Yeah, don't get what glory keeps missing here, you said it earlier, as well.

[Brownie19]

I wouldn't. Upton has a 74 wRC+ over the last 4 years which makes him complete garbage. Smoak has a 111 wRC+ over that same time period. Unless Upton was a Pillar like defender in LF that is not worth the loss in offence.

 

Excellent cherry picking there BB. You pick 4 years to ensure you get Upton's god awful years in Atlanta and so you can capture the 138 wRC+ vs. RHP that Smoak posted in 2013 (his wRC+ is <100 vs. RHP if you only go back 3 years...). What Smoak (and Upton) did in 2013 is completely irrelevant.

 

Upton's wRC+ vs. RHP was 101 in 2015 and Smoak's was 99 last year....see how easy this is!

[glory]

I wouldn't. Upton has a 74 wRC+ over the last 4 years which makes him complete garbage. Smoak has a 111 wRC+ over that same time period. Unless Upton was a Pillar like defender in LF that is not worth the loss in offence.

 

Using four year splits is pretty misleading as it includes his complete outlier of a season that he's never come close to duplicating since, while also including Upton's ATL numbers which are his worst by far and not reflective of what he's done the past two years.

 

Over the past three years, Smoak has a 97 wRC+ against rhp, for example. He's essentially had one good season against rhp in his entire career (2013 where he had a 138 wRC+ against them). Outside of that he's either been average or absolute s*** against them, and that's on top of being a lumbering, slow-footed, below average first basemen. Even if you want to say he's about ~100 wRC+ against rhp, is that worth taking one of your better hitters who can't throw due to injury and is an injury risk to begin with and sticking him in a more demanding OF position where he's probably going to be below average defensively? Pearce is already an above average first baseman on defence. Upton is probably above average on defence in left (he was very good there last season). Even with Upton's struggles against rhp, is the difference between those two lineups significant enough to warrant putting Pearce in the outfield? If they want to put Morales at first and DH Jose, then sure, stick Pearce in left. But to do that to get Smoak's bat in the lineup? Not worth it.

 

If you asked me who has the higher WAR next season, I think Upton beats Smoak if both are given equal playing time.

Edited March 29, 2017 by glory

[z3r0s]

It’s likely that outfielder Melvin Upton Jr. will make the Blue Jays, but it’s not a lock, according to Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com. The last spot on the team figures to go to either Upton, whom Toronto acquired last summer from San Diego, or out-of-options middle infielder Ryan Goins

 

just threw up a bit... Ryan Goins can't be gone soon enough.

[Sammy225]

just threw up a bit... Ryan Goins can't be gone soon enough.

 

Trade the hobbit

[Bobthe4th]

just threw up a bit... Ryan Goins can't be gone soon enough.

 

The chances of them picking Goins who's role right now is at best a bench alternative to Barney, over Upton who right now at worst is a platoon alternative to Carrera, is surely close to zero.

 

If Pagan or someone similar signed I could see them debating whether to lose Carrera or Upton, with the sensible decision being Upton, but if they let Gibby pick again (like they did with Valencia / Colabello) him picking Carrera.

[burlingtonbandit]

Excellent cherry picking there BB. You pick 4 years to ensure you get Upton's god awful years in Atlanta and so you can capture the 138 wRC+ vs. RHP that Smoak posted in 2013 (his wRC+ is <100 vs. RHP if you only go back 3 years...). What Smoak (and Upton) did in 2013 is completely irrelevant.

 

Upton's wRC+ vs. RHP was 101 in 2015 and Smoak's was 99 last year....see how easy this is!

 

I'm not trying to say Smoak is good.. I think they need an upgrade in LF to play Pearce at 1B. Just that Upton is complete dog s***. Sure he had a 101 wRC+ in 2015 but it was in 144PA and he had a 5.6% BB rate 27.8% K rate and .353 BABIP which is obviously unsustainable.

 

The other 3 years he was crap over a sample of 300PA or more so that is why you use the combined stats over those years instead of just looking at yearly splits. I would sit Smoak vs pitchers with good breaking balls as its clear he struggles with them but he's a pretty good option vs more of a fastball-changeup pitcher. He at least has a good batted ball profile which is probably why the Jays FO likes him.

[G-Snarls]

Long drive today

 

Finally time to listen to a game

[G-Snarls]

Estrada in the booth

 

Honored to start opening day but seems to sincerely believe that all 5 are equal and it could have been anyone

 

He says nine of them feel like they're number ones nor does anyone feel like they're a number 5

[KingKat]

 

Honored to start opening day but seems to sincerely believe that all 5 are equal and it could have been anyone

 

 

He's not wrong. If you assume a bit of positive regression from Stroman and a bit of negative regression from Sanchez (both reasonable assumptions), they are all pretty similar. It's a good deep rotation that might not have a true ace but might also be 5 deep with strong number two types.

[Boxcar]

Estrada in the booth

 

Honored to start opening day but seems to sincerely believe that all 5 are equal and it could have been anyone

 

He says nine of them feel like they're number ones nor does anyone feel like they're a number 5

 

I call ********. I'd bet my life that Stroman thinks of himself as a #1.

[KingKat]

I call ********. I'd bet my life that Stroman thinks of himself as a #1.

 

Surely Sanchez must think that too after pitching like one AND having Boras whispering in his ear in case he ever forgets.

[HERPDERP]

positive regression

 

does not compute

[KingKat]

does not compute

 

Regress doesn't mean you get worse. It means you return to the mean. Stroman had a better FIP and XFIP in 2014-2015 than he did in 2016. So regression for him would mean an improvement over 2016. I call that a positive regression even though it's actually just a regression but the word regression has such a negative connotation that I find it clarifying to distinguish a regression going in a positive direction from one going the other way (which is the kind that is being alluded to 95% of the time the word regression gets used.