Does the StroShow blow?

[Daniel Labude]

Last year, Stroman was painting the corners with the fastball hitting all of his spots. This year he has had only a couple of games where he did that. He just cant locate the pitch. At this point he needs to go to the 4 seam fastball because he can control it a lot more.

[intentional wok]

I actually checked out some of his baserunners-allowed statistics and got some pretty interesting comps:

 

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/dr/hln/www/release/sites/default/files/static/images/worldseriesdreaming.gif

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

I actually checked out some of his baserunners-allowed statistics and got some pretty interesting comps:

 

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/dr/hln/www/release/sites/default/files/static/images/worldseriesdreaming.gif

 

What where they OH Great and Seeing WOKZOO!!! 🤔

[L54]

well, there's this

 

 

That guy is a true knob

[Boxcar]

I'll try to be better for us, Boxy.

 

Remember, Boxking forever.

[RealAccountant]

Stroman leads AL in Hits Allowed.

[fatcowxlive]

http://i.imgur.com/NM7Tt62.png

 

This is Brooks right? I can't mange to get pitch usage with 2 strikes working, I want to know what's his predominant out pitch he used before vs now, or even better what he did in Cleveland and KC that didn't work against Chicago and Baltimore where he mixed everything up but when I press the 2 strike button it doesn't change the charts

[RealAccountant]

He is obsessed with making that Sinker work.

[John_Havok]

2 STRIKE pitch usage

 

from 03/30/2007 to 07/16/2016

Pitch Type Count Freq

Fourseam 257 20.25%

Sinker 306 24.11%

Change 74 5.83%

Slider 261 20.57%

Cutter 100 7.88%

[John_Havok]

2016 alone

 

Pitch Type Count Freq

Fourseam 32 7.24%

Sinker 136 30.77%

Change 35 7.92%

Slider 141 31.90%

Curve 51 11.54%

Cutter 47 10.63%

 

2015 was very similar percentages.

[John_Havok]

2014

 

Fourseam 206 33.66%

Sinker 104 16.99%

Change 16 2.61%

Slider 59 9.64%

Curve 187 30.56%

Cutter 40 6.54%

[fatcowxlive]

2016 alone

 

Pitch Type Count Freq

Fourseam 32 7.24%

Sinker 136 30.77%

Change 35 7.92%

Slider 141 31.90%

Curve 51 11.54%

Cutter 47 10.63%

 

2015 was very similar percentages.

 

Thanks! Then if 2015 was similar in %s why is he preforming so bad? Is it just simply leaving too much up and in the middle of the plate? Good # of curve and cutter, and his slider is neck in neck with his sinker. I noticed this year his damn near abandoned his changeup though.

[THANOS]

Thanks! Then if 2015 was similar in %s why is he preforming so bad? Is it just simply leaving too much up and in the middle of the plate? Good # of curve and cutter, and his slider is neck in neck with his sinker. I noticed this year his damn near abandoned his changeup though.

 

Much better command in 2015 and it was a small sample.

[gruber92]

2016 alone

 

Pitch Type Count Freq

Fourseam 32 7.24%

Sinker 136 30.77%

Change 35 7.92%

Slider 141 31.90%

Curve 51 11.54%

Cutter 47 10.63%

 

2015 was very similar percentages.

 

2014

 

Fourseam 206 33.66%

Sinker 104 16.99%

Change 16 2.61%

Slider 59 9.64%

Curve 187 30.56%

Cutter 40 6.54%

 

You have to wonder why the abandonment of the curve ball? What makes it more puzzling is that he has a good curve and it's also his most effective off speed option. The only logical explanation is that the curve applies unwanted stress to his arm(elbow), which is probably why he's determined in making his two seamer work. If this is the case, his future unfortunately is in the pen where he can maximize all his pitches but in shorter stints. He can also provide SP depth if needed. I hope this isn't the case, but why is he being bent on using his curve less (yesterday), when he had success in his previous two starts and beyond this year?

[THANOS]

You have to wonder why the abandonment of the curve ball? What makes it more puzzling is that he has a good curve and it's also his most effective off speed option. The only logical explanation is that the curve applies unwanted stress to his arm(elbow), which is probably why he's determined in making his two seamer work. If this is the case, his future unfortunately is in the pen where he can maximize all his pitches but in shorter stints. He can also provide SP depth if needed. I hope this isn't the case, but why is he being bent on using his curve less (yesterday), when he had success in his previous two starts and beyond this year?

 

The curve tends to work best paired with a 4SM since the release point tends to be similar. There may be a correlation with the decrease of 4SM usage?

Edited July 16, 2016 by THANOS

[gruber92]

The curve tends to work best paired with a 4SM since the release point tends to be similar. Their may be a correlation with the decrease of 4SM usage?

 

Yeah, seems like it. I'd love to know why the change in approach this year, and why is he so determined to make it work when it's clear that it won't.

[TheGrandslamMan]

Let's not get carried away guys. Stromans a very useful part to this rotation. His makeup works very well in the 4/5 starter roll.

 

I think the media narrative gave people unattainable expectations for the Stro-show. He has natural talent, and he makes it work great for a small man, but let's not pretend like we have another ace-like Halladay pitcher on our hands... It's not gonna happen.

 

Strow's splits this year have been bad while his pre-2016 splits are fantastic. It shows that the opponents are making adjustments and aren't fooled by his repertoire anymore. This is natural. Oakland came out with a good LHB heavy lineup, and Strow struggled. It's gonna happen. Sometimes he'll look great, sometimes he'll get pummeled and in the end his numbers will be that of a 4/5 starter...

 

And that's just fine.

[TheGrandslamMan]

It really was odd that Oakland pummeled him so hard in that huge ballpark with Stromans elite GB rates though. It's a head scratcher and shows that advanced stats don't tell a black and white story.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Again for the same way we enjoy his mental toughness and ego and competitive nature of the Kid !!!

 

This also can be a problem in this all too.Stubborn to change thinking he knows better then the coaches and veteran catcher he shakes off. Just a belief he feels he knows what's best for him and a FYSMC I don't have to listen to you!!!

 

If he was Told to throw what is called by the catcher and just f***ing pitch and that his Sinker is to not be used until refined or unless called for!

 

I for one am not sure he would comply

With it... Gut feel, maybe!!!

 

Oh and tell him to get off social media and FOCUS, damn it!!!

[BigCecil]

Stro looked pretty good last night but seems to get into trouble in a hurry. Whats up with the HR/FB?

 

2014 = 6.5%

2015 = 14.3%

2016 = 17.2

 

Is the HR/FB ratio a function of the hard contact he is giving up and/or is it bad luck? He is leading the league in giving up crushed balls and earned runs.

[Olerud363]

Stro looked pretty good last night but seems to get into trouble in a hurry. Whats up with the HR/FB?

 

2014 = 6.5%

2015 = 14.3%

2016 = 17.2

 

Is the HR/FB ratio a function of the hard contact he is giving up and/or is it bad luck? He is leading the league in giving up crushed balls and earned runs.

 

I wonder if it is really simple. There are rumours of juiced ball... http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-juiced-balls-the-new-steroids/

 

Stroman - true talent = 3.50 era

Sroman + juiced ball + bad luck = 4.92 era

[Spanky99]

Stro looked pretty good last night but seems to get into trouble in a hurry. Whats up with the HR/FB?

 

2014 = 6.5%

2015 = 14.3%

2016 = 17.2

 

Is the HR/FB ratio a function of the hard contact he is giving up and/or is it bad luck? He is leading the league in giving up crushed balls and earned runs.

 

Again, unsustainable, me thinks.

[Spanky99]

I wonder if it is really simple. There are rumours of juiced ball... http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-juiced-balls-the-new-steroids/

 

Stroman - true talent = 3.50 era

Sroman + juiced ball + bad luck = 4.92 era

 

lol

[BigCecil]

Again, unsustainable, me thinks.

 

I get that thinking but the high ratio is over 160 IP now. Sample size growing.

[Spanky99]

I get that thinking but the high ratio is over 160 IP now. Sample size growing.

 

Well, it's rised throughout the MLB from 10 average to near 13%, could be unlucky, he missed his spot the other day on that curve, he was pitching very well otherwise.

[Olerud363]

lol

 

You don't agree?? Or you do agree??

 

I think fangraphs has his fip at 3.90, and his xFip at 3.56.

 

And the other point is that the homer rate league wide is way up. So it seems multiple factors have increased Stromans era... two of which are league offense levels and luck.

 

So it's not as bad as it seems, he hasn't gone Romero or anything. I'm sure many of you guys have been pointing this for a while. I hadn't looked at Stroman closely lately, or realized league offense was up so much.

[Spanky99]

You don't agree?? Or you do agree??

 

I think fangraphs has his fip at 3.90, and his xFip at 3.56.

 

And the other point is that the homer rate league wide is way up. So it seems multiple factors have increased Stromans era... two of which are league offense levels and luck.

 

So it's not as bad as it seems, he hasn't gone Romero or anything. I'm sure many of you guys have been pointing this for a while. I hadn't looked at Stroman closely lately, or realized league offense was up so much.

 

I don't agree... it's a blip. It should at least drop 5%.

[Daniel Labude]

Stro looked pretty good last night but seems to get into trouble in a hurry. Whats up with the HR/FB?

 

2014 = 6.5%

2015 = 14.3%

2016 = 17.2

 

Is the HR/FB ratio a function of the hard contact he is giving up and/or is it bad luck? He is leading the league in giving up crushed balls and earned runs.

 

Part of it is due to the 2 seamer. He is giving up less fly balls but the HR rate is the same or higher than in 2014. This means the % will jump up drastically as it has. That coupled with some bad luck and some bad pitching....you get where he is at. He was actually ok yesterday, just threw one terrible pitch at a terrible time.

[GD]

I get that thinking but the high ratio is over 160 IP now. Sample size growing.

 

HR/FB stabilizes at 400 FB.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/

 

Stroman is at 101 FB over that sample.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=13431&position=P&type=4&gds=2015-09-12&gde=2016-07-26&season=

 

So you'd project a quarter of his rate as 16.8% and three quarters as the league average, I think.

[THANOS]

13 strikeouts. That is all.