Does the StroShow blow?

[Laika]

Stroman has been insanely unlucky this year. Unlucky on all fronts (LOB%, BABIP, HR/FB).

 

His xFIP is really good at this point.

[Sorrow]

Stroman has been insanely unlucky this year. Unlucky on all fronts (LOB%, BABIP, HR/FB).

 

His xFIP is really good at this point.

 

He had a three or four week stretch where everything was north of 5 IIRC. He's had an odd season, in something like 20 starts 8 were horrible, 8 were great and 2 were mixed bags of balls.

[Daniel Labude]

13 strikeouts. That is all.

 

This was probably his best game ever...but he got really lucky on some hanging breaking balls.

 

Also, I would love to find out his pitch type and usuage for this start. Seems like he threw more cutters than 2 seams at one point. Can anyone find that info? Thanks in advance!

[King]

This was probably his best game ever...but he got really lucky on some hanging breaking balls.

 

Also, I would love to find out his pitch type and usuage for this start. Seems like he threw more cutters than 2 seams at one point. Can anyone find that info? Thanks in advance!

Check brooksbaseball after the game.

[Daniel Labude]

He had a three or four week stretch where everything was north of 5 IIRC. He's had an odd season, in something like 20 starts 8 were horrible, 8 were great and 2 were mixed bags of balls.

 

Tonight he threw everything and kept them guessing over and over. Used more cutters than expects. Was an amazing performance!

[GD]

HR/FB stabilizes at 400 FB.

 

www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/

 

Stroman is at 101 FB over that sample.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=13431&position=P&type=4&gds=2015-09-12&gde=2016-07-26&season=

 

So you'd project a quarter of his rate as 16.8% and three quarters as the league average, I think.

 

Using Cyborg's stable point formula (FB#/ (FB# + StableFB#))*actualHR/FB + (1-(FB/ (FB + StableFB#)))*leagueHR/FB) you get [TABLE]

[TR]

[TD]13.5265%. My back of the napkin hamfisted probably wrong ******** way gives 13.725% or something. Can update this after tonight as well.

 

North is going to come in and post about linearity and split half correlations about 45 seconds after I hit post.[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[THANOS]

Checked out the Brooks info on Stro's and his usage was 49% FB and 43% Slider/Cutter. I'm curious if they mixed up the Cutter and Slider a bunch of times because I know the cutter is one of his worst pitches and the Slider is his best. Either way, I think he's found the correct pitch mix and I hope it continues.

[Daniel Labude]

Checked out the Brooks info on Stro's and his usage was 49% FB and 43% Slider/Cutter. I'm curious if they mixed up the Cutter and Slider a bunch of times because I know the cutter is one of his worst pitches and the Slider is his best. Either way, I think he's found the correct pitch mix and I hope it continues.

 

That's why I wanted to see the numbers. It looked like he threw a lot of sliders and cutters. I think it was on purpose to get people from just waiting on the 2seam

[Laika]

FWIW Stroman made a lot of really bad pitches in the first few innings yesterday that Houston simply missed and watched.

 

Lots of hanging breaking balls. Like, ten.

[G-Snarls]

FWIW Stroman made a lot of really bad pitches in the first few innings yesterday that Houston simply missed and watched.

 

Lots of hanging breaking balls. Like, ten.

 

I was thinking exactly the same thing through the first 3 innings

 

He got lucky

 

His stuff got better as the game went on, fortunately

[G-Snarls]

BTW does anyone swing harder than Jose Altuve??

[burlingtonbandit]

BTW does anyone swing harder than Jose Altuve??

 

Giancarlo Stanton...

[Krylian]

BTW does anyone swing harder than Jose Altuve??

 

As long as his wife is into it, who cares?

[GD]

[TABLE]

[TR]

[TD]Can update this after tonight as well.

[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

13.4%.

[GD]

[h=1]What Marcus Stroman May Have Learned from David Price[/h]by Eno Sarris - August 5, 2016

 

 

[THANOS]

K/9 has crept up to 7.38 now after yesterday and he's pacing to get it to the mid 8's by year's end. His xFIP is now at 3.41 as well, good for 4th in the AL for starters.

 

It seems he's finally found the perfect pitch mix with Martin. Just don't let Thole game-call for him ever again.

 

11.7% SwStr% by Brooks last night as well.

[BigCecil]

K/9 has crept up to 7.38 now after yesterday and he's pacing to get it to the mid 8's by year's end. His xFIP is now at 3.41 as well, good for 4th in the AL for starters.

 

It seems he's finally found the perfect pitch mix with Martin. Just don't let Thole game-call for him ever again.

 

11.7% SwStr% by Brooks last night as well.

 

He has been pretty impressive. The 18% HR/FB is a head scratcher. Hopefully he gets on the right side of that stat for the rest of 2016.

[THANOS]

He has been pretty impressive. The 18% HR/FB is a head scratcher. Hopefully he gets on the right side of that stat for the rest of 2016.

 

Yeah. Well he's been pitching like the Stroman in the minors, as far as results go. That Stroman had a similar HR/9. I'll gladly take that spike in HR rate if it means everything else is elite.

 

[G-Snarls]

Yeah we have good Stroman's back it looks like

 

Occasional rocky starts but not very often

 

Great to have him doing well again. That's huge for the team. We can manage with 4 quality starters.

[THANOS]

Yeah we have good Stroman's back it looks like

 

Occasional rocky starts but not very often

 

Great to have him doing well again. That's huge for the team. We can manage with 4 quality starters.

 

I don't think we've ever seen this Stroman in the majors before. This is MiLB Stroman meshed with 2015 Sinker Stroman. It's very interesting because he's still very sinker/2SM dominant (similarly to 2014 post-ASB), has retained the elite 60% GB%, but has re-integrated the nasty Slider that he used before his 2014 call-up. He's been Frankenstein'd and I love it.

Edited August 15, 2016 by THANOS

[mikebel111]

Has rough outings at times, but he is back to being the pitcher that we know he can be.

[G-Snarls]

We know he is still capable of pitching like a legit front of the rotation starter.

[BigCecil]

Yeah we have good Stroman's back it looks like

 

Occasional rocky starts but not very often

 

Great to have him doing well again. That's huge for the team. We can manage with 4 quality starters.

 

Ya. Our 4 man doesn't have any of the huge names(Sale, Kluber etc), but as a group they are extremely solid. If our offense is our offense, we play D like we can and our pen continues to pitch like better (i think Cecil is still going to be a big factor) we can beat anyone.

[Jonn]

Sometimes he blows. Sometimes he doesn't. Inconsistent middle of the rotation starter.

[Terminator]

xFIP by month:

April: 4.25

May: 3.49

June: 3.93

July: 2.66

Aug: 2.25

[jaysblue]

I think Stroman is a solid No. 2, not a No. 1. People had such high and unrealistic expectations on him after his 4 starts in September and the postseason. He's clicking now at the right time which is all that counts!

[THANOS]

I think Stroman is a solid No. 2, not a No. 1. People had such high and unrealistic expectations on him after his 4 starts in September and the postseason. He's clicking now at the right time which is all that counts!

 

I still think he could be a #1. He just needs to keep up his current pitch mix. The peripherals seem to show an ace if we follow the past 2 months.

 

The question is "can we buy into Franken-Stroman or do we need to see a lot more first?"

[Jimcanuck]

So StroBlow is now StroShow?

 

One day Blue Jays suxxxx, next day Blue Jays are numero 1

[Plat]

I think Stroman is a solid No. 2, not a No. 1. People had such high and unrealistic expectations on him after his 4 starts in September and the postseason. He's clicking now at the right time which is all that counts!

 

Sanchez is the clear number one in the future, no?

[THANOS]

Predictions for today?

 

I'm thinking:

 

6.2 IP, 9 K, 0 BB, 1 ER (HR), 5 H.