Sanchez Projection March 2016

[Grant77]

Today in Fact Checking Grant...

 

Minimum 120 innings to match Sanchez' sample size:

 

Jonny Venters Braves 68.40% 94.5

Sam Dyson - - - 67.10% 95.3

Jake Petricka White Sox 64.00% 94.1

Zach Britton Orioles 62.00% 93.3

Aaron Sanchez Blue Jays 61.80% 95.5

Brandon League - - - 60.50% 95.2

Bryan Morris - - - 59.40% 94.9

Jim Johnson - - - 58.30% 94.1

Ronald Belisario

 

Lower the IP all the way to 20 to eliminate survivor bias and we can add more names (all 94+)...

 

Waldis Joaquin

Luis Garcia

Blake Treinen

Evan Marshall

 

Some of these guys are in the majors, pitching right now, with the same or very similar skillset to Sanchez'. Blake Treinen's repertoire in particular is strikingly similar.

 

If you were looking only at qualified starters, which you probably were, then that's a list that Sanchez himself wouldn't qualify for. Further, he barely averaged 94 as a SP (I think), so he would be extremely unlikely to have a career where he sits over 94mph. If he's lucky enough to start for the next few years then you're probably looking at an average velo a lot lower than his career to date. Heck a full season in the rotation right now probably has the effect of dropping his average velo way down.

 

You also forgot 2005 AJ Burnett, otherwise known as Sanchez' light at the end of the tunnel, on your single season qualified SP list.

 

"exhaustive"

 

Who the f*** raised you?

 

You do know what a starting pitcher is right? Sanchez gets 66.7% groundballs as a reliever and throws harder so you'd have to use an entirely new set of parameters if you want to judge him as a reliever.

 

You're comparing of apples to oranges does nothing to alter the fact that he's got an extremely rare skillset for a starter. You can bitch about sample size all you want, but you still didn't come up with any starting pitchers after lowering the sample. We already knew Sanchez threw hard and got a ton of grounders before he entered the league. Two seasons later, none of that should be surprising.

[TheHurl]

You do know what a starting pitcher is right? Sanchez gets 66.7% groundballs as a reliever and throws harder so you'd have to use an entirely new set of parameters if you want to judge him as a reliever.

 

You're comparing of apples to oranges does nothing to alter the fact that he's got an extremely rare skillset for a starter. You can bitch about sample size all you want, but you still didn't come up with any starting pitchers after lowering the sample. We already knew Sanchez threw hard and got a ton of grounders before he entered the league. Two seasons later, none of that should be surprising.

 

So you are saying his ceiling is Sam Dyson?

[Olerud363]

So you are saying his ceiling is Sam Dyson?

 

If you did 60% + ground ball rate, and 95+ fast ball velocity you can get Brandon League back in the conversation too... maybe that is out-Granting Grant, cherry pick the criteria so the guy I want (League) just squeaks into the picture.

[Cyborg]

If you were looking only at qualified starters, which you probably were, then that's a list that Sanchez himself wouldn't qualify for. Further, he barely averaged 94 as a SP (I think), so he would be extremely unlikely to have a career where he sits over 94mph. If he's lucky enough to start for the next few years then you're probably looking at an average velo a lot lower than his career to date. Heck a full season in the rotation right now probably has the effect of dropping his average velo way down.

He averaged 94.95 as a starter http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=592717&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=year&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=04/10/2015&endDate=06/05/2015

[burlingtonbandit]

Its funny because Sanchez's teammate and best friend Stroman pretty much fits that criteria. Since developing his 2 seamer his GB rate is 59% and his avg FB velo is over 93 MPH barely under the "94 MPH" threshold.

[TheHurl]

You also forgot 2005 AJ Burnett, otherwise known as Sanchez' light at the end of the tunnel, on your single season qualified SP list.

 

"exhaustive"

 

Who the f*** raised you?

 

Denny Bautista 2005 too. And Blake Treinen from your list did it as a starter in 2014

[Laika]

You do know what a starting pitcher is right? Sanchez gets 66.7% groundballs as a reliever and throws harder so you'd have to use an entirely new set of parameters if you want to judge him as a reliever.

 

You're comparing of apples to oranges does nothing to alter the fact that he's got an extremely rare skillset for a starter. You can bitch about sample size all you want, but you still didn't come up with any starting pitchers after lowering the sample. We already knew Sanchez threw hard and got a ton of grounders before he entered the league. Two seasons later, none of that should be surprising.

 

I think I might. Do you though? Aaron Sanchez has a 5.05 BB/9 and a 5.21 FIP as a starter. In other words, he's not a starter.

 

If my grandma had two wheels, she'd be a bike.

[Jimcanuck]

In other words, he's not a starter.

 

Pretty absolute, how sure are you that Sanchez will never be a starting pitcher?

[Cyborg]

I think I might. Do you though? Aaron Sanchez has a 5.05 BB/9 and a 5.21 FIP as a starter. In other words, he's not a starter.

 

If my grandma had two wheels, she'd be a bike.

She doesn't need two wheels for that.

[Laika]

She doesn't need two wheels for that.

 

Yeah, robot. That was the joke inside the joke. It had layers.

 

bzzzt bzzzt

[Laika]

Denny Bautista 2005 too. And Blake Treinen from your list did it as a starter in 2014

 

Treinen and Britton were vastly superior than Sanchez as starters while simultaneously failing to stick as starters.

 

Some GM should assemble the all unique Unicorn team of elite groundball, great velocity, FIP breaking pitchers. I'm sure Brandon League and Ronald Belisario would be willing to start if you paid them enough money.

 

Could call the team The Butt Stallions.

[TheHurl]

Treinen and Britton were vastly superior than Sanchez as starters while simultaneously failing to stick as starters.

 

Some GM should assemble the all unique Unicorn team of elite groundball, great velocity, FIP breaking pitchers. I'm sure Brandon League and Ronald Belisario would be willing to start if you paid them enough money.

 

Could call the team The Butt Stallions.

 

Get early Chien-Ming Wang in there too, he is Butt Stallion material

[Laika]

Get early Chien-Ming Wang in there too, he is Butt Stallion material

 

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2016/03/15/chien-ming-wangs-velocity-is-back-in-the-mid-90s/

[Angrioter]

I was the first to named Ronald Belisario in this thread. Ronald is the president of Butt Stallion

[Spanky99]

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2016/03/15/chien-ming-wangs-velocity-is-back-in-the-mid-90s/

 

Holy s***?!

[Angrioter]

Aaron Sanchez here, and 3 months later

[Grant77]

Treinen and Britton were vastly superior than Sanchez as starters while simultaneously failing to stick as starters.

 

Some GM should assemble the all unique Unicorn team of elite groundball, great velocity, FIP breaking pitchers. I'm sure Brandon League and Ronald Belisario would be willing to start if you paid them enough money.

 

Could call the team The Butt Stallions.

 

There's no evidence that Treinen is a 'failed starter'. He looked pretty good in both the majors and minors, but didn't have a spot in that Strasburg-Scherzer-Zimmermann-Gonzalez rotation. Britton had a 4.25 FIP as a starter, hardly terrible. I think he could have improved there if they gave him more time, but he's been an asset in the bullpen too.

[intentional wok]

Holy s***?!

 

I skimmed the headlines and grabbed him in #LoD. I'm an easy sale.

[Maahfaace]

http://www.tsn.ca/report-encarnacion-contract-talks-stalled-1.453803

 

Buster Onley referencing Strasburg when discussing Sanchez......wtf?

[Spanky99]

http://www.tsn.ca/report-encarnacion-contract-talks-stalled-1.453803

 

Buster Onley referencing Strasburg when discussing Sanchez......wtf?

 

Did you listen to it? They're talking about innings limits, not a comp.

[burlingtonbandit]

Hopefully baseball progresses where in 5 years we don't have to hear about these garbage inning limits.

[Maahfaace]

Did you listen to it? They're talking about innings limits, not a comp.

 

did you listen to it? hes using the example of "needing" Sanchez for the playoff rotation.....like how washington shut down strasburg and missed out on his studness

[Spanky99]

did you listen to it? hes using the example of "needing" Sanchez for the playoff rotation.....like how washington shut down strasburg and missed out on his studness

 

Ahh... good point Olney's dumn.

[Angrioter]

BVH

Shapiro on Sanchez: "We need to survive a season. Not just come up with 5 guys on April 5th."

 

More on Sanchez: "Remember: he's never pitched more than 130 innings."

[Angrioter]

Shapiro: "You want to get development done before they get to the big leagues." Says players won't take risks to make adjustments in majors.

 

Pompey and Sanchez?

[Angrioter]

BVH

Shapiro: "Fact remains, when Gavin Floyd has been healthy, he's been productive. He's been a good major league starting pitcher."

 

 

Sanchez to the minore/bullpen in 3..2..1

[Sammy225]

Does not sound like a huge believer is Sanchez and Likes Floyd..... Who did I Pick lol

[Angrioter]

Does not sound like a huge believer is Sanchez and Likes Floyd..... Who did I Pick lol

 

That's a great news. Floyd over Sanchez s a no-brainer

[BTS]

Really looking forward to seeing what Gavin Floyd can provide. For 1M if he can even give 10-15 effective starts that would be a nice boost.

[Boxcar]

God bless you Marky poo