Sanchez Projection March 2016

[Angrioter]

I question why people keep saying he has a "big arm"...what do they mean by that? At this point, all this "big arm" can do is throw a hard a hard sinker with movement. It's a good pitch, but I'm not even convinced it's a great pitch as it doesn't miss a lot of bats (6.5% SwStr%) and these days - everyone throws "hard".

 

Like Sanchez, Jake McGee and Sean Doolittle both throw primarily fastballs. Neither seem to have (by eye) as much movement as Sanchez's sinker, yet McGee's gets over 10% SwStr% and Doolittle is at 13.5% SwStr%. Those are elite fastballs.

 

Sanchez has likely been trying to develop secondary pitches since he was 16 and has yet to find anything he can throw at even an average level....is that what a "big arm" is to people? For me - a "big arm" is someone with elite pitches who's still developing his control/command.

 

Another thought is - why isn't Sanchez's fastball elite? Is it the poor command? Sanchez really reminds me of Brandon League.

 

Brandon League is a nice comp

[BTS]

Sanchez has a fastball that can get him through a lineup 3 times. It's a pitch that you can either lift or you can't. There's no smoke and mirrors or dotting the corner with it like Hutchison for example.

 

SSS but as a starter Sanchez's OPS against was .685 one time through and .701 three times through. For such a raw pitcher you'd expect the third time through to be a f***ing disaster.

 

If his velocity is still there in the later innings, the fastball is just a hard pitch to get into the outfield. That's his main allure as a starting pitcher. It's a tool that is uncommon and more or less can't be taught.

 

I don't think you can say he has a fastball that can get him through a lineup three times. That doesn't really exist, especially when your command of that one big pitch is not good.

[Laika]

Sanchez has a fastball that can get him through a lineup 3 times.

 

No.... This is a baseless statement.

[Angrioter]

IIRC their situations were basically identical: young guy with big GB-inducing fastball and tons of movement that couldn't find useful secondary pitches and didn't strike people out. We all debated his future as a starter, but he didn't end up improving at all and flamed out pretty quickly.

 

Jarred Cosart

(6 K, +4 BB)/9, +55% GB

[BTS]

I shouldn't say he can make it through 3 times based on fastball alone. What I meant is that hitters can probably see it as many times as they want but it won't have as much of an effect as if they saw a fastball like Hutch's 3 times.

 

RHP have a SLG of .175 against him in his career. He's never given up a HR to a RHB. His fastball is extremely hard to hit as a RHB.

 

That's actually pretty nuts.

[Angrioter]

It's unfair to just look at swstr%. The sinker is a weak contact / groundball pitch, generally. The guys who get lots of fastball whiffs tend to throw four seamers up in the zone, and it's the optical rise in conjunction with the velocity that generates whiffs. For whatever mechanical reason, Sanchez doesn't seem to be physically able to throw a straight four seam fastball.

 

But his fastball is a "big pitch". Sanchez can possibly survive in the MLB as a well above average reliever with just the one pitch. It generates lots of weak contact and groundballs even with nothing else in the arsenal.

 

If you look at the weighted (per pitch) outcome based value of all MLB pitches from 2014-2015 (minimum 100 innings per person), Sanchez' fastball is 13th on the list. It's up there with elite relievers like Betances, Kimbrel, Jansen. Close to Chapman, who is 7th. Effectively tied with Kershaw and Arrieta. (side note - Stroman is 9th).

 

Sanchez has a double plus fastball. It is a pretty elite pitch. So it is a "big arm". The issue with him is basically everything else.

.....then when he loses 5 mph, he will become in Ronald Belisario.

[Laika]

What I meant is that hitters can probably see it as many times as they want but it won't have as much of an effect as if they saw a fastball like Hutch's 3 times.

 

Hmmm. Hunch is to reject the idea, but it's a testable hypothesis. Look at starters with similar fastballs (velocity, movement, use%, etc.) and see how they fare on the TTOP. That would give us a good idea of how learnable his fastball is.

[saskjayfan]

People are talking about his swinging strike rate like it will never change. Firstly, his swinging strike rate is based off 125 innings. His velocity as a starter was down last year. His command certainly needs to improve. The addition and improvement of other pitches will help make his fastball better. He's primarily thrown his fastball so hitters thus far in his career. Hitters have thus far just sat fastball and with the command not being very good in those 125 innings you are basing assumptions regarding contact rates, which are higher than you would like, on a limited sample size. The benefit of the movement can not be denied. He has thus far had an elite level ground ball rate.

 

Determining whether he can improve his fastball command and develop his cutter, change, curveball isn't something that you can do simply looking at statistics. Is his delivery showing improvement this year? Can't use statistics to make that analysis. You only have 9 innings to go off of.

 

His curveball seemingly looks better, but he hasn't thrown enough of them to form a conclusion. Sanchez has the foundation to become a great pitcher. There just aren't a lot of starters who can throw 98 with movement. He may or may not develop the secondary pitches and command with is fastball to achieve long term success, but putting percentages on him becoming a number 1 or 2, or a 5th starter, or reliever is just wild ass guesswork as well. Historically power arms often take longer to develop and some develop and some don't.

[Laika]

I'm also interested to see if such a difference in spring numbers like Sanchez has right now actually means anything for the future (mostly for fantasy purposes).

 

Right now his K/9 is over 9 which is double his past 2 springs. His K/BB is 10 which is 10x his past 2 springs. He has 15 GB outs and 1 AO. His GO/AO is 15.00. His past 2 springs were basically consistent in all of these areas.

 

That's an easy no.

 

- wouldn't be stable even if it were the regular season

- it's spring training so you should have even less confidence in the numbers

[Laika]

People are talking about his swinging strike rate like it will never change. Firstly, his swinging strike rate is based off 125 innings.

 

No, people are talking like there is not really any good reason to expect his whiff rates to change. They certainly could if he had some sort of skill change (new pitch, new mechanics, etc.).

 

But the general opinion on his ability to get swinging strikes and thus strike outs is not just based on his MLB time. We also have a minor league career that included a poor ability to strikeout hitters in the upper minors, which carries weight in the consideration.

[Angrioter]

I'm also interested to see if such a difference in spring numbers like Sanchez has right now actually means anything for the future (mostly for fantasy purposes).

 

Right now his K/9 is over 9 which is double his past 2 springs. His K/BB is 10 which is 10x his past 2 springs. He has 15 GB outs and 1 AO. His GO/AO is 15.00. The past 2 springs it was around 3.50. His past 2 springs were basically consistent in all of these areas.

 

http://www.quickmeme.com/img/3b/3b8d7c5231b7a2da03a6b54f474cb3233a4b0e7732e018b411a83592cf4765e6.jpg

[Abomination]

I think the problem for Sanchez with the secondary pitches is that the curve is such a big breaking curve. With his fastball down in the zone, any pitch the batter sees start up in the zone is likely the curve and easier to pick out. If he could add a four seam fastball up in the zone, the curve and sinker probably become deadly.

[burlingtonbandit]

The thing with Sanchez is he doesn't need a lot of strikeouts to be successful for the blue jays. With how good the infield defense is and the RC turf all he needs to do is get groundballs and limit the walks. If he can get that walk rate in the 7-9% it will help him out a ton. Obviously its easier said then done but if the improvements to his body really do help his mechanics then he should be a lot better.

[burlingtonbandit]

I think the problem for Sanchez with the secondary pitches is that the curve is such a big breaking curve. With his fastball down in the zone, any pitch the batter sees start up in the zone is likely the curve and easier to pick out. If he could add a four seam fastball up in the zone, the curve and sinker probably become deadly.

 

I think that is why he added the cutter. He probably knows his changeup is terrible and likely won't get much better so that is why he focuses on a different pitch to have something on the same plane as the fastball.

[Grant77]

The most probable outcome is probably somewhere in the range of middle reliever and good SP4.

 

He's exceeded the low end of your probable outcome for 2 seasons now. His SP potential is yet to be determined, but expecting him to take a huge step back from what he's already done is relief is awfully foolish.

[Angrioter]

No, people are talking like there is not really any good reason to expect his whiff rates to change. They certainly could if he had some sort of skill change (new pitch, new mechanics, etc.).

 

But the general opinion on his ability to get swinging strikes and thus strike outs is not just based on his MLB time. We also have a minor league career that included a poor ability to strikeout hitters in the upper minors, which carries weight in the consideration.

 

What has been the more significant change in term of SwStr% year-0 to year-1 that you remember?

 

Keuchel

2012: 5.5%

2013: 9.1%

[Laika]

I think the problem for Sanchez with the secondary pitches is that the curve is such a big breaking curve. With his fastball down in the zone, any pitch the batter sees start up in the zone is likely the curve and easier to pick out. If he could add a four seam fastball up in the zone, the curve and sinker probably become deadly.

 

Yeah the ideal career development path for Aaron Sanchez is something like AJ Burnett. Burnett had massive command issues in the upper minors and in his early MLB years. Tighten up the breaking ball and maybe he could be a young Burnet. Then he can slowly learn the nuances of pitching and bloom into the mid career Burnett. Then he can transform himself again, sign with the Pirates, and be late career Burnett and probably make $200 million.

[Laika]

What has been the more significant change in term of SwStr% year-0 to year-1 that you remember?

 

Keuchel

2012: 5.5%

2013: 9.1%

 

I dunno, there are probably lots. Carrasco went from 7-9% when he sucked to 14% now.

[BTS]

He's exceeded the low end of your probable outcome for 2 seasons now. His SP potential is yet to be determined, but expecting him to take a huge step back from what he's already done is relief is awfully foolish.

 

Thanks for your thoughts Grant

[Grant77]

I question why people keep saying he has a "big arm"...what do they mean by that? At this point, all this "big arm" can do is throw a hard a hard sinker with movement. It's a good pitch, but I'm not even convinced it's a great pitch as it doesn't miss a lot of bats (6.5% SwStr%) and these days - everyone throws "hard".

 

Like Sanchez, Jake McGee and Sean Doolittle both throw primarily fastballs. Neither seem to have (by eye) as much movement as Sanchez's sinker, yet McGee's gets over 10% SwStr% and Doolittle is at 13.5% SwStr%. Those are elite fastballs.

 

Sanchez has likely been trying to develop secondary pitches since he was 16 and has yet to find anything he can throw at even an average level....is that what a "big arm" is to people? For me - a "big arm" is someone with elite pitches who's still developing his control/command.

 

Another thought is - why isn't Sanchez's fastball elite? Is it the poor command? Sanchez really reminds me of Brandon League.

 

Look at other stats for god sakes. Swinging strikes are a concern, but you guys are so hung up on two or three metrics that you can't see the big picture. Some of this has been mentioned, but I'll reiterate.

 

His fastball IS elite. His wFB/c was 4th in the league last year amongst relievers.

 

The guy is impossible to hit in relief. His hard% is a paltry 14.1%, the best in the league by a wide margin. Sam Dyson is the next closest at 18.4% and the list is a who's who of great relievers. O'Day, Smith, Britton, Betances. Brandon League has never approached this level of unhittability (made up word) and his career mark sits at 27%, nearly double.

[Olerud363]

He's exceeded the low end of your probable outcome for 2 seasons now. His SP potential is yet to be determined, but expecting him to take a huge step back from what he's already done is relief is awfully foolish.

 

Hi Grant

 

I am very confused. Sanchez has not exceeded anybody's expectations. As a reliever he pitches 60 innings and walks 15 and strikeout 45... if this trend continues he will be the next Casey Jansen

 

As a starter he pitches 60 innings and walks 37 and strikes out 42, with these stats he could be the next Joey Hamilton

 

He has done as the hive thought... he has never exceeded the hive's projections...

 

Oh... wait.. do you mean to say that his artificially low ERA should be taken at face value?? In that case you will have to destroy all present statistical and logical theory's and replace them with the theory of Grant/Trump

 

Grant/Trump - Reality is as we say, we are legion, we will rule the lower people...

 

Yes Grant, you are Trump... Ironically you are probably the type who acts all superior and makes fun of Trump, but in reality you and Trump are one and the same.... you both ignore the normal laws of logic and define your own.

[BTS]

Olerud363 for forum MVP

[Grant77]

Hi Grant

 

I am very confused. Sanchez has not exceeded anybody's expectations. As a reliever he pitches 60 innings and walks 15 and strikeout 45... if this trend continues he will be the next Casey Jansen

 

As a starter he pitches 60 innings and walks 37 and strikes out 42, with these stats he could be the next Joey Hamilton

 

He has done as the hive thought... he has never exceeded the hive's projections...

 

Oh... wait.. do you mean to say that his artificially low ERA should be taken at face value?? In that case you will have to destroy all present statistical and logical theory's and replace them with the theory of Grant/Trump

 

Grant/Trump - Reality is as we say, we are legion, we will rule the lower people...

 

Yes Grant, you are Trump... Ironically you are probably the type who acts all superior and makes fun of Trump, but in reality you and Trump are one and the same.... you both ignore the normal laws of logic and define your own.

 

I haven't even mentioned ERA in this thread.

 

Why do you completely ignore batted ball data? As an elite performer in this regard, it is extremely important to look at with Sanchez. He's nothing at all like Casey Janssen. I am bringing other information to the table to paint a more complete picture of his performance. I am not ignoring his control issues or swinging strike issues.

 

By pigeonholing on one stat (K/BB) and ignoring the complete picture, you are doing the very thing that you accuse me of. It gave me a good laugh though, thank you.

[Dick_Pole]

The most yapped about "prospects" in Blue Jays Message Board/MLB Board history, with strong opinions/arguments pro or against their talent levels, IIRC:

 

Snider, Hechavarria, Arencibia, Goins, Sanchez

 

This association does not bode well for Sanchez.

 

The young players in recent memory who didn't illicit a lot of reaction or arguments relative to the players above:

 

Stroman, Pillar, Travis, Osuna

 

This bodes well for the Jays. I'm willing to have Sanchez as the sacrificial lamb whose career is destined to be cursed by the various jinxed posters on here. The more time that is spent arguing over Sanchez, the less time that is spent arguing whether Devon Travis is the next Ian Kinsler based on a few of his monster shots he hit last April.

[BTS]

The most yapped about "prospects" in Blue Jays Message Board/MLB Board history, with strong opinions/arguments pro or against their talent levels, IIRC:

 

Snider, Hechavarria, Arencibia, Goins, Sanchez

 

This association does not bode well for Sanchez.

 

The young players in recent memory who didn't illicit a lot of reaction or arguments relative to the players above:

 

Stroman, Pillar, Travis, Osuna

 

This bodes well for the Jays. I'm willing to have Sanchez as the sacrificial lamb whose career is destined to be cursed by the various jinxed posters on here. The more time that is spent arguing over Sanchez, the less time that is spent arguing whether Devon Travis is the next Ian Kinsler based on a few of his monster shots he hit last April.

 

Gose!

[Angrioter]

I dunno, there are probably lots. Carrasco went from 7-9% when he sucked to 14% now.

 

Tyson Ross

2012: 6,4%

2013: 11,2%

[highhard2]

Gose!

 

d'Arnaud,Syndergaard,Nicolino,Drabek,Norris,Hoffman,Wallace

[Grant77]

The most yapped about "prospects" in Blue Jays Message Board/MLB Board history, with strong opinions/arguments pro or against their talent levels, IIRC:

 

Snider, Hechavarria, Arencibia, Goins, Sanchez

 

This association does not bode well for Sanchez.

 

The young players in recent memory who didn't illicit a lot of reaction or arguments relative to the players above:

 

Stroman, Pillar, Travis, Osuna

 

This bodes well for the Jays. I'm willing to have Sanchez as the sacrificial lamb whose career is destined to be cursed by the various jinxed posters on here. The more time that is spent arguing over Sanchez, the less time that is spent arguing whether Devon Travis is the next Ian Kinsler based on a few of his monster shots he hit last April.

 

There will be some dissenting opinions from those who rely too much on UZR, but I think Hechavarria turned out just fine. Nobody expected more than a decent bat and elite D.

[BTS]

d'Arnaud,Syndergaard,Nicolino,Drabek,Norris,Hoffman,Wallace

 

I don't remember much debate about any of those guys. Maybe Drabek.

[Sammy225]

I don't remember much debate about any of those guys. Maybe Drabek.

 

Lol Wallace and them thunder thighs