Sanchez Projection March 2016

[BTS]

Lol Wallace and them thunder thighs

 

Wallace debate expoded after he was traded and connorp insisted that trading him was a mistake after singled his way to a nice April on like a 0.500 BABIP.

[highhard2]

I don't remember much debate about any of those guys. Maybe Drabek.

 

Selective memory is selective.

 

The only one I remember much agreement on is Syndergaard.

[BTS]

Selective memory is selective.

 

The only one I remember much agreement on is Syndergaard.

 

Have you seen my post count? I have a better grasp on forum history than you do.

[highhard2]

Have you seen my post count? I have a better grasp on forum history than you do.

 

I've probably been around longer than you.

[BTS]

I've probably been around longer than you.

 

2003 for me.

[Sammy225]

Wallace debate expoded after he was traded and connorp insisted that trading him was a mistake after singled his way to a nice April on like a 0.500 BABIP.

 

That was a slow swing he had.... I can't remember and don't want to look it up but wasn't his eye pretty good at one point.

[Angrioter]

2003 for me.

 

and I?

[BTS]

and I?

 

I don't know. I thought you were a dogg personality until like 2014.

[Angrioter]

I don't know. I thought you were a dogg personality until like 2014.

 

2004, 2005 or 2006... I dont remember well

[highhard2]

2003 for me.

 

Probably 2005ish for me.Remember that team with the Burnett,Ryan,Thomas,Eckstein, signings.Maybe 2004 offseason.

[BTS]

I wonder who's been here the longest. Grant?

[Boxcar]

I wonder who's been here the longest. Grant?

 

I'd bet Spank or Gibbers

[Grant77]

I wonder who's been here the longest. Grant?

 

2001 for me. Spanky and hurl might be earlier.

[Abomination]

I wonder who's been here the longest. Grant?

 

I don't know when I first signed up, but the forums underwent at least two resets since.

[BTS]

2001 for me. Spanky and hurl might be earlier.

 

I didn't think the forums went back much further than that.

[admin]

I wonder who's been here the longest. Grant?

 

Me. Been banned on old board before any of you were around!

[BTS]

Me. Been banned on old board before any of you were around!

 

Expos was such a dick

[admin]

Expos was such a dick

 

I can't remember anyone. I think I was around 2002. One guy I remember John Adolf, used his real name until someone phoned his home lol.

[BTS]

I can't remember anyone. I think I was around 2002. One guy I remember John Adolf, used his real name until someone phoned his home lol.

 

Expos was allegedly the moderator, and probably the guy who banned you.

 

And yeah, I remember adolf. He was Gibbers before Gibbers, but older and angrier.

[admin]

Expos was allegedly the moderator, and probably the guy who banned you.

 

And yeah, I remember adolf. He was Gibbers before Gibbers, but older and angrier.

 

I somewhat remember expos. I don't think he was moderator. I think that started as a joke and everyone believed it lol.

Mac was probably here the longest.

[Brownie19]

Look at other stats for god sakes. Swinging strikes are a concern, but you guys are so hung up on two or three metrics that you can't see the big picture. Some of this has been mentioned, but I'll reiterate.

 

His fastball IS elite. His wFB/c was 4th in the league last year amongst relievers.

 

The guy is impossible to hit in relief. His hard% is a paltry 14.1%, the best in the league by a wide margin. Sam Dyson is the next closest at 18.4% and the list is a who's who of great relievers. O'Day, Smith, Britton, Betances. Brandon League has never approached this level of unhittability (made up word) and his career mark sits at 27%, nearly double.

 

Fair enough man....I wasn't trying to write a bloody thesis on this matter - I was just curious under what basis people keep suggesting he has a "big arm". When I think big arm, I personally think strikeouts and to get strikeouts, you need swinging strikes. I probably used to think velocity too, but I no longer do as everyone in the pen throws hard now (see Scholtz, Bo)

 

Perhaps I underestimated the value of weak contact and groundballs; however, there are plenty of groundball pitchers who I certainly don't consider to have "big arms".

 

Brett Anderson

Jon Neise

Brad Ziegler

Luke Gregerson

Zake Petricka

 

My post had nothing to do with how successful he'll be - it was simply to find out why people keep saying he has the big arm or great "stuff". He's spent the last 7 years trying to learn how to throw a good secondary pitch and has failed miserably. The only other pitch he's developed at all is a loopy curveball, which makes no sense to throw off his sinking fastball. It's utterly stupid IMO. Forgive me if I doubt his ability to "develop" other quality pitches.

[Olerud363]

I haven't even mentioned ERA in this thread.

 

Why do you completely ignore batted ball data? As an elite performer in this regard, it is extremely important to look at with Sanchez. He's nothing at all like Casey Janssen. I am bringing other information to the table to paint a more complete picture of his performance. I am not ignoring his control issues or swinging strike issues.

 

By pigeonholing on one stat (K/BB) and ignoring the complete picture, you are doing the very thing that you accuse me of. It gave me a good laugh though, thank you.

 

 

Sanchez as reliever - 60 innings 60% ground ball rate 15 50 k/bb

Jansen - 60 innings 48% ground ball rate 15 50 k/bb

 

Of course you claim "they are nothing alike", you are Grant, enemy of logic, friend of Trump.

 

Statistically they are somewhat alike, especially as relievers --

 

Let's look at the logical flaws in your post.

 

1. "pigenholing" 1 stat -- NO... k and bb are two stats. I did not even use k/bb ratio. I used k and bb - that is 2... 2 is not 1

 

2. Sanchez and Jansen are similar in that they both were tried as starters and were mediocre

 

3. Both have ground ball tendencies, Sanchez obviously more extreme (Janen - 48% or so, Sanchez 60%)

 

The crazy thing is a few months ago, I was in your shoes, arguing with Nox about this... trying to argue that Sanchez is somehow unique. Nox's point was that I could not beat the machine.

 

I thought about this, and realized he is correct (of course).. now believe it or not I have a background in data analysis, so I have some concept of what it would take to beat (improve) the "machine"

 

I could not do it as a casual baseball statistics hobbyist, and could not do it alone. I would have to work full time as part of a team developing such a system. My advice to you (as I've said before) is this: If you truly believe you have unique insights that go beyond the projection systems, then please send your resume to front offices. Your unique knowledge is wasted on this board.

[Olerud363]

The interesting thing is this:

 

If a well educated person projects 5 players to be mediocre, they will probably be right on 4, 80% correct -- but nobody will care.

 

If Grant projects 5 players to be dynamite he'll be right on 1 -- 20% correct

 

But we'll never hear the end of it. Grant will toot is own horn on getting the one guy right, and even people non-Grant will give Grant credit. You will hear "Grant is obnoxious... yes he is... but man he called so and so right"

[Moo3]

ITT: Whiny school boys

[Angrioter]

Sanchez questions are going to be answered in 2 or 3 months since now. I traded for him in BBDL because his bullpen arm..... If he could be an #3 SP I could be the happy man in this board.

[Dick_Pole]

The interesting thing is this:

 

If a well educated person projects 5 players to be mediocre, they will probably be right on 4, 80% correct -- but nobody will care.

 

If Grant projects 5 players to be dynamite he'll be right on 1 -- 20% correct

 

But we'll never hear the end of it. Grant will toot is own horn on getting the one guy right, and even people non-Grant will give Grant credit. You will hear "Grant is obnoxious... yes he is... but man he called so and so right"

 

If someone buys 5 lotto tickets and you call him a fool that just wasted his money and 4 of them turn out to be busts, you're 80% correct.

 

If someone buys 5 lotto tickets and 4 of them are busts, that person is 20% correct and also a millionaire.

 

I don't disagree with you regarding Sanchez, but projecting prospects to bust is not exactly a hard thing to do. If someone picks 5 players to break out and one of them turns out to be a legit star, I think that person has done well with his baseball prediction skills. Hell, some scouts have made careers with worse percentages than that.

[Krylian]

Where's the SP3 option?

[Angrioter]

If someone buys 5 lotto tickets and you call him a fool that just wasted his money and 4 of them turn out to be busts, you're 80% correct.

 

If someone buys 5 lotto tickets and 4 of them are busts, that person is 20% correct and also a millionaire.

 

I don't disagree with you regarding Sanchez, but projecting prospects to bust is not exactly a hard thing to do. If someone picks 5 players to break out and one of them turns out to be a legit star, I think that person has done well with his baseball prediction skills. Hell, some scouts have made careers with worse percentages than that.

 

Top prospects:

1-Seager elite

2-Buxton bust

3-Giolito elite

4-Urias elite

5-JPCrawford bust

[Dick_Pole]

d'Arnaud,Syndergaard,Nicolino,Drabek,Norris,Hoffman,Wallace

 

There was never a level of conversation about those guys outside of the context of the trades they were involved in. This Sanchez s*** just pops up randomly and goes on for pages with no conclusion. If Sanchez gets traded this board WILL go down. No server could handle the amount of traffic that would stimulate. Especially if the trade is for some no-name NL guy 90% of us have never seen play who would totally make sense for this team and from an analytical perspective.

[Olerud363]

If someone buys 5 lotto tickets and you call him a fool that just wasted his money and 4 of them turn out to be busts, you're 80% correct.

 

If someone buys 5 lotto tickets and 4 of them are busts, that person is 20% correct and also a millionaire.

 

I don't disagree with you regarding Sanchez, but projecting prospects to bust is not exactly a hard thing to do. If someone picks 5 players to break out and one of them turns out to be a legit star, I think that person has done well with his baseball prediction skills. Hell, some scouts have made careers with worse percentages than that.

 

I think we mostly agree here... Except for some classes of players the breakout rate is about 20% anyway...

 

I say "certain classes" because the weird thing is I was just looking at my Baseball Prospectus 2016 -- and as I expected a lot of the younger pitchers, Sanchez included had 20% breakout rates.

 

Except the position players mostly head real low breakout rates... - the number one breakout rate was Josh Thole at 7% ?? How the hell is that a breakout??

 

Maybe the f'd it up somehow. To me breakout should be the chance the player achieves some fairly fantastic goal -- like 3 WAR or something...

 

Not like a relative percentage of past performance. Like Josh Thole breaking out would be hitting .260 with 4 homers