Westhead: Shapiro Told Blue Jays Payroll To Be $140MM+

[King]

Revere should have real value to any team, to say nothing of your trade proposals. He's as consistent as you can be as a 2 WAR player, is young, and is under control for 2 years. Many SABR guys are currently entranced by the Steamer projections, but they are way off base and the other systems will be more optimistic. The fact that we gave up real prospects to acquire him also indicates his value.

 

Tirado and Cordero are nothing. Add in the fact the Phillies paid his entire salary for the remainder of 2015...

[BTS]

Tirado and Cordero are nothing. Add in the fact the Phillies paid his entire salary for the remainder of 2015...

 

Yeah. I mean, I'm sure you could flip him off for someone's Tirado, but the trade deadline gave a pretty good indication as to what the market will pay for him. He'll make like 15-16M over the next two years.

[Olerud363]

Revere should have real value to any team, to say nothing of your trade proposals. He's as consistent as you can be as a 2 WAR player, is young, and is under control for 2 years. Many SABR guys are currently entranced by the Steamer projections, but it is way off base and the other systems will be more optimistic. The fact that we gave up real prospects to acquire him also indicates his value.

 

Not really, talent is a pyramid. Even if he's worth 2, that's not a hot commodity... nice guy to have if you don't have a better guy,

 

He's only projected for 0.9 by fan graphs. And just cuz our former GM gave up prospects for him doesn't mean another GM would, apparently our former GM needed adult supervision.

 

The Revere trade didn't do much... maybe added a fraction of a win, if that over Pompey.

[Stangstag]

If this is true, i'm happy. 140 is definitely enough to get some solid upgrades in the rotation and bullpen.

[Swervin81]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2016.html

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2016.html

 

Thanks. Anyways, by my count, we have $36M left after arb with a roster that looks as like:

 

DH: Edwin

C: Martin

1B: Smoak

2B: Travis

SS: Tulo

3B: Donaldson

LF: Pompey

CF: Pillar

RF: Bautista

 

BN: Goins, Saunders, Cola, Thole

 

SP: Stroman

SP: ???

SP: ???

SP: Dickey

SP: Hutch/???

 

Long man: ???/Hutch

LOOGY: Loup

ROOGY: Sanchez

Mid-relief: Venditte

Setup: Hendriks, Cecil

Closer: Osuna

 

In an ideal world. Now, that's probably around $104M by my calculations. So we basically have $36M to burn, but how to spend it... You could probably pick up someone in rule 5 for the bullpen (convert a flamethrowing starter to relief). Thole should probably be non tendered and someone else should be brought up and just become glued to Dickey this summer to practice, but oh well.

[Frenchsoup]

That's a pretty good chunk of change left

[Grant77]

Not really, talent is a pyramid. Even if he's worth 2, that's not a hot commodity... nice guy to have if you don't have a better guy,

 

He's only projected for 0.9 by fan graphs. And just cuz our former GM gave up prospects for him doesn't mean another GM would, apparently our former GM needed adult supervision.

 

The Revere trade didn't do much... maybe added a fraction of a win, if that over Pompey.

 

That projection is a huge anomoly when compared to projections for similar players. There's also no logical reason to expect a 27 year old with very stable skills and no injury concerns to have a precipitous decline. When other projection systems come out, I'm certain that they will be higher.

 

2 WAR talent also gets paid accordingly every offseason. Look at Nick Markakis for a recent example.

[glory]

Yeah, $140m is more than enough to put a winner on the field. Hell, 2013 and 2014's payroll was more than enough to put a winner on the field as well, but AA is bulletproof, and all the blame somehow went to Rogers for not spending more than the top 10 payroll they gave AA.

 

Get some short-term SP options (Shark, Kennedy?) to fill out the rotation, and add depth where applicable, and the team should have a chance to repeat as division champs or at least make one of the wild card spots.

[Grant77]

Thanks. Anyways, by my count, we have $36M left after arb with a roster that looks as like:

 

DH: Edwin

C: Martin

1B: Smoak

2B: Travis

SS: Tulo

3B: Donaldson

LF: Pompey

CF: Pillar

RF: Bautista

 

BN: Goins, Saunders, Cola, Thole

 

SP: Stroman

SP: ???

SP: ???

SP: Dickey

SP: Hutch/???

 

Long man: ???/Hutch

LOOGY: Loup

ROOGY: Sanchez

Mid-relief: Venditte

Setup: Hendriks, Cecil

Closer: Osuna

 

In an ideal world. Now, that's probably around $104M by my calculations. So we basically have $36M to burn, but how to spend it... You could probably pick up someone in rule 5 for the bullpen (convert a flamethrowing starter to relief). Thole should probably be non tendered and someone else should be brought up and just become glued to Dickey this summer to practice, but oh well.

 

You could get Samardzija (15), Latos (8), and a could of decent relievers for that payroll, though I'm just guessing on the salaries.

[GD]

I kind of think he gets like 6/120 or something.

 

I thought he had a significant velocity drop and was awful? But now I looked at his stats and he was pretty much around career averages, did he have a very good second half?

 

He had an off first half due to a temporary velo drop which I'm hoping brings down his asking price, but the velo surged back and I'd expect your average 3.5 win JZimm season

[Governator]

2015 $125,915,800 $ ( )

2014 $137,177,700 $135,435,701 (10)

2013 $119,277,800 $125,879,791 ( 9)

 

Not stagnant.

 

What was their year end total for this year?

[Stangstag]

You could get Samardzija (15), Latos (8), and a could of decent relievers for that payroll, though I'm just guessing on the salaries.

 

Latos is trash

[BTS]

What was their year end total for this year?

 

Not sure, but people keep saying a bit over 140.

[Grant77]

What was their year end total for this year?

 

$138,309,664

 

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/payroll/

[Olerud363]

That projection is a huge anomoly when compared to projections for similar players. There's also no logical reason to expect a 27 year old with very stable skills and no injury concerns to have a precipitous decline. When other projection systems come out, I'm certain that they will be higher.

 

2 WAR talent also gets paid accordingly every offseason. Look at Nick Markakis for a recent example.

 

What similar players are you talking about??

 

The projector is a machine. If the player is really similar they will have a similar projection. The machine doesn't have feelings.

[Laika]

What similar players are you talking about??

 

The projector is a machine. If the player is really similar they will have a similar projection. The machine doesn't have feelings.

 

Projection systems are wonderful on the aggregate, but they can still be misguided on individual players. It's hard to reconcile Revere's current Steamer projection with the data we have visible on him. Just hard to understand.

 

Be wary of someone who commonly has gripes with player projections, but also be wary of someone who never has complaints about player projections.

[nonamejays]

I fully expect the same half measures that the Jays have done for the past 22 years. Good enough to not be terrible, not good enough to actually do anything.

 

They realistically need only 3 pieces to be ready to go and they only have the budget to get 1 maybe two if they're both cheap. Another 10-15 million would have covered all three.

[Olerud363]

Projection systems are wonderful on the aggregate, but they can still be misguided on individual players. It's hard to reconcile Revere's current Steamer projection with the data we have visible on him. Just hard to understand.

 

Be wary of someone who commonly has gripes with player projections, but also be wary of someone who never has complaints about player projections.

 

In this case the projection is fine, it projects him to hit .291 .326 on base, .364 slugging. His career averages basically. No ones going to come up with a better projection.

 

He didn't stick in center so I he's docked for being a left fielder -- that is the issue

 

BEN REVERE GOT 2 WAR some YEARS AS A CENTER FIELDER

 

BEN REVERE GOT 2 WAR LAST YEAR BECAUSE HE HIT ABOVE HIS CAREER AVERAGES.

 

Ben Revere is not a good left fielder. 1 WAR. He is not a 2 WAR player in left field.

[Pulk_Pull]

Good news but I'm interested to see how we spend it and if we stick with what's currently on the field or trade for future flexibility.

 

Really not expecting many win-now moves aside from a couple short term or one year contracts.

[Olerud363]

Projection systems are wonderful on the aggregate, but they can still be misguided on individual players. It's hard to reconcile Revere's current Steamer projection with the data we have visible on him. Just hard to understand.

 

Be wary of someone who commonly has gripes with player projections, but also be wary of someone who never has complaints about player projections.

 

The all caps anger directed at Grant, not you. I agree with you. But in this case the projection is amazing, it's wonderful, it's perfect for Ben Revere the left fielder

 

If Grant wants to argue that he's nuts. Revere IS IN LEFT NOW. Left field. Not center. Does anyone really want a .290 .320 .350 left fielder?? Other then Grant?

[burlingtonbandit]

Payroll shouldn't be a capped number but rather based on who they are able to get. When Rogers makes 100 million in profit fans won't be happy to see payroll remain the same.

 

Rogers would still make money if the payroll was 175 million. Let's hope they put the money back into other resources like IFA and stadium improvements.

[AdamLindsMom]

How the f*** is this good news? Did any of u actually think theyd dare lower payroll after that season?

 

Im pissed. Anything less than 150 will have me furious.

 

Hilarious that you are the only one to make this point in this thread. All the Rogers apologists are quite happy with 140.

[Laika]

The all caps anger directed at Grant, not you. I agree with you. But in this case the projection is amazing, it's wonderful, it's perfect for Ben Revere the left fielder

 

If Grant wants to argue that he's nuts. Revere IS IN LEFT NOW. Left field. Not center. Does anyone really want a .290 .320 .350 left fielder?? Other then Grant?

 

Theoretically, someone switching from CF to LF doesn't actually lose any value because they should be more skilled at their new position, relative to average. Revere is now compared to plugs like Hanley Ramirez and Kyle Schwarber in UZR calculations.

[Grant77]

Projection systems are wonderful on the aggregate, but they can still be misguided on individual players. It's hard to reconcile Revere's current Steamer projection with the data we have visible on him. Just hard to understand.

 

Be wary of someone who commonly has gripes with player projections, but also be wary of someone who never has complaints about player projections.

 

Absolutely right. They are usually pretty close, but Revere's projection just doesn't make a lot of sense and I hate when people use it as an absolute in terms of his value. His value in front offices could range from that projection to maybe 2.5 WAR if a GM really loves his D.

[Olerud363]

Theoretically, someone switching from CF to LF doesn't actually lose any value because they should be more skilled at their new position, relative to average. Revere is now compared to plugs like Hanley Ramirez and Kyle Schwarber in UZR calculations.

 

Well OK. But then he's also being compared to Kyle Schwarber as a hitter.

[Laika]

Well OK. But then he's also being compared to Kyle Schwarber as a hitter.

 

WAR from offense has nothing to do with position.

 

Batting runs are relative to league average hitting talent.

Defensive runs are relative to positional average defensive talent.

 

That's how it works!

[Grant77]

In this case the projection is fine, it projects him to hit .291 .326 on base, .364 slugging. His career averages basically. No ones going to come up with a better projection.

 

He didn't stick in center so I he's docked for being a left fielder -- that is the issue

 

BEN REVERE GOT 2 WAR some YEARS AS A CENTER FIELDER

 

BEN REVERE GOT 2 WAR LAST YEAR BECAUSE HE HIT ABOVE HIS CAREER AVERAGES.

 

Ben Revere is not a good left fielder. 1 WAR. He is not a 2 WAR player in left field.

 

The facts aren't in your corner, my friend. As njh pointed out, a position change doesn't necessarily reduce his value. Also, a slight improvement in walk rate and power isn't necessarily a fluke, as he was only 26 years old to start the season. His LD% went way up and his BABIP didn't spike, so it's not like this was luck.

 

I've never been a big fan of guys like Revere and I advocate trying to trade him. I'm just giving a logical assessment of his value.

[Olerud363]

The facts aren't in your corner, my friend. As njh pointed out, a position change doesn't necessarily reduce his value. Also, a slight improvement in walk rate and power isn't necessarily a fluke, as he was only 26 years old to start the season. His LD% went way up and his BABIP didn't spike, so it's not like this was luck.

 

I've never been a big fan of guys like Revere and I advocate trying to trade him. I'm just giving a logical assessment of his value.

 

What age does defense peak at?? His defensive numbers are plumetting. Looks like they started going down, then they switched him to left.

[GD]

Well OK. But then he's also being compared to Kyle Schwarber as a hitter.

 

You should probably look into more on how it's calculated before you frequently reference it.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

[thatoneguy]

Would've liked to hit the 150 mark, but 140 should be fine to fill most of the holes.