Jays targetting Jeff Samardzija and/or Ryan Hanigan

[kcjaysfan]

I hope you die a slow horrifically painful death.

 

Double negatives. The f***ing worst.

 

While not necessarily syntactically pleasing, I would posit that King's use of the double negative was actually quite appropriate, as he was conveying that Happ did bring something to the team, with an emphasis on him disagreeing with MohYou.

[GeorgiaPeach]

It's very depressing when our target at catcher who is coming off a year where he hit .198 and had a .567 OPS and is 33 years old and likely won't hit for a .700 OPS again is what is getting people excited. The 4th place Yankees get McCann - the fifth place Blue Jays get? May as well bring Zaun out of retirement.

 

For me its not about getting excited over Hanigan. Its more about not emptying our farm for every star player that each fan can think of, because we absolutely need a star to fill the holes at C, 2B & the rotation.

[jaysblue]

It's very depressing when our target at catcher who is coming off a year where he hit .198 and had a .567 OPS and is 33 years old and likely won't hit for a .700 OPS again is what is getting people excited. The 4th place Yankees get McCann - the fifth place Blue Jays get? May as well bring Zaun out of retirement.

 

Hanigan will not hit .198 again lol. It's so funny how so many people get caught up with last years stats. Your acquiring a player on what he can moving forward, not what he did in the past. Even if Hanigan hit .398, I'm sure so many posters would be fapping at his name, even though I wouldn't expect a .300 average from him in the first place. Defensively, he's a solid option behind the plate, and he's a solid contact hitter who doesn't strike out often and could get on-base at a decent clip. Having hit 8th-9th isn't really that of a concern in my opinion. And for what he'll cost through trade and then ARB, it makes a lot more sense for the Jays since then they could spend that money elsewhere. I'd rather have the Jays pay Hanigan $2.5 million then pay Ruiz $8-9 million each season over the next 3 years, since that other money could be used to shore up other holes.

[saskjayfan]

Hanigan will not hit .198 again lol. It's so funny how so many people get caught up with last years stats. Your acquiring a player on what he can moving forward, not what he did in the past. Even if Hanigan hit .398, I'm sure so many posters would be fapping at his name, even though I wouldn't expect a .300 average from him in the first place. Defensively, he's a solid option behind the plate, and he's a solid contact hitter who doesn't strike out often and could get on-base at a decent clip. Having hit 8th-9th isn't really that of a concern in my opinion. And for what he'll cost through trade and then ARB, it makes a lot more sense for the Jays since then they could spend that money elsewhere. I'd rather have the Jays pay Hanigan $2.5 million then pay Ruiz $8-9 million each season over the next 3 years, since that other money could be used to shore up other holes.

 

I'd rather trade for ianetta myself who has 2 years left on his contract...hanigan is turning 34 next year...

[leaffie]

interesting read on Samaradzija. Don't know who Bateman is, but differing point of view on Sanchez.

 

http://tipofthetower.com/2013/11/25/shark-week-blue-jays-hunt-samardzija/

[KingKat]

interesting read on Samaradzija. Don't know who Bateman is, but differing point of view on Sanchez.

 

http://tipofthetower.com/2013/11/25/shark-week-blue-jays-hunt-samardzija/

 

The differing point of view doesn't really come from him, it comes from those Drew Fairservice tweets. Drew is a pretty smart guy but he also has adopted a firm "fans should always be in favour of any future sacrifices that helps the product on the field now". He'll fight to the death in favour of the Marlins trade or the James Shield trade so there's no way he would be opposed to dealing Sanchez for a Major League piece. That being said, everything he's saying about Sanchez is true. I came into this season pretty down on Sanchez myself and feeling like turning the page might be a good idea but then he got so much hype in the AFL that I lost my nerve when it came to wanting him gone. At what point does a prospect need to show results that are in-line with his supposed upside before you reconsider his upside altogether? Like I said earlier, I was more than ready to turn the page but the AFL showed that there's still a lot of belief out there in his ace potential. Does AFL hype matter or should we just look at the results and say Sanchez is too much of a longshot, let's get a sure thing?

Edited November 25, 2013 by KingKat

[leaffie]

This was not the only negatives I have read on Sanchez, but everyone is an "expert", so since I am no expert on which prospect will make it to the majors, I usually keep quiet about it.

 

But I do know that I listen to MLB all the time and there are a few guys on there that were previous GM's and everyone of them says, they will take an established player every single time over a prospect. Especially one that is far down the system.

 

I do know that so far AA has been pretty good at trading off prospects that have stalled.

[Chappy]

interesting read on Samaradzija. Don't know who Bateman is, but differing point of view on Sanchez.

 

http://tipofthetower.com/2013/11/25/shark-week-blue-jays-hunt-samardzija/

 

The points are valid. Odds are Sanchez may never be as good as Samardzija. I'd much rather hold onto Hutch and Stroman and I know I'm in the minority on that, but Hutch showed glimpses of what he could do at the major league level and Stroman may be ready now to contribute and that holds a lot of weight.

[Sammy225]

The differing point of view doesn't really come from him, it comes from those Drew Fairservice tweets. Drew is a pretty smart guy but he also has adopted a firm "fans should always be in favour of any future sacrifices that helps the product on the field now". He'll fight to the death in favour of the Marlins trade or the James Shield trade so there's no way he would be opposed to dealing Sanchez for a Major League piece. That being said, everything he's saying about Sanchez is true. I came into this season pretty down on Sanchez myself and feeling like turning the page might be a good idea but then he got so much hype in the ALF that I lost my nerve when it came to wanting him gone. At what point does a prospect need to show results that are in-line with his supposed upside before you reconsider his upside altogether? Like I said earlier, I was more than ready to turn the page but the AFL showed that there's still a lot of belief out there in his ace potential. Does AFL hype matter or should we just look at the results and say Sanchez is too much of a longshot, let's get a sure thing?

 

It is a very interesting situation. He had a less the stellar year in high A and he has yet to make the big jump to AA. Looked very good in the AFL but does that make up for it. I would say Stroman is our best pitching prospect in our system. If Sanchez could ever get his BB down which are too high then maybe i would have a higher opinion of him but we shall see.

[Chappy]

It is a very interesting situation. He had a less the stellar year in high A and he has yet to make the big jump to AA. Looked very good in the AFL but does that make up for it. I would say Stroman is our best pitching prospect in our system. If Sanchez could ever get his BB down which are too high then maybe i would have a higher opinion of him but we shall see.

 

For that reason and the fact that Stroman is closer to the bigs I would much rather move Sanchez if one of them has to go.

[Sammy225]

For that reason and the fact that Stroman is closer to the bigs I would much rather move Sanchez if one of them has to go.

 

They can have Sanchez but I want bother Samardzkljaslkdjj and Welington Castillo back lol.

[BarrysSyringe]

They can have Sanchez but I want bother Samardzkljaslkdjj and Welington Castillo back lol.

 

Whats castillo's cieling?

[Sammy225]

Probably already reached it. But it would be a long shot that the Cubs would deal him. He won't be any more than 4 WAR.

[Nox]

It's definitely something that I want/need some more information on

 

Matt Swarz, Hardball Times Annual 2011. His number was just shy of $9M. I have reproduced the "study" (RE one fairly simple SQL query) in the past and came within a quarter million.

 

The main thing people fail to realize when thinking about this is that we need to look at the actual number of WAR produced on the FA contracts. You don't pay for past WARz, you pay for the future WARz produced under contract.

 

For example, if a 3 WAR player in 2009 and signs a 2 year FA contract before the 2010 season, we sum his 2010 and 2011 production and see how that compares to the $ he was paid. Rinse and repeat for all FA contracts and you get your league wide #s. Doing this by hand is obviously a colossal pain in the ass.

 

With all the new money in baseball I'm guessing we would find this number is actually north of $10M this offseason.

[Nox]

Where did you get the data for that?

 

The data fairy.

[Nox]

But really, I don't understand how people cite $5M per WAR bc Fangraphs quoted that like 5 years ago. Are we really supposed to operate on the assumption that there's been 0% contract inflation since 2008? That's completely illogical, even without looking at a single number.

[Nox]

I think people are okay with it because the fangraphs number increases a bit every year, so the assumption is that fangraphs is doing the calculation every year. I guess what they're really doing is settling on a mostly arbitrary annual inflation rate.

 

I'd be quite interested to see what they're doing exactly.

 

First thing that comes to mind is maybe they're including all players and not just FAs and then people are just miss-using the number?

[Angrioter]

Royals are shopping Aaron Crow and Tim Collins.

 

Dayton Moore > Double A

[Angrioter]

No double A, its AA, as in eh! eh!

 

Gotta be Canadian

 

Yo don't habla Canadian language.

[Laika]

Matt Swarz, Hardball Times Annual 2011. His number was just shy of $9M. I have reproduced the "study" (RE one fairly simple SQL query) in the past and came within a quarter million.

 

The main thing people fail to realize when thinking about this is that we need to look at the actual number of WAR produced on the FA contracts. You don't pay for past WARz, you pay for the future WARz produced under contract.

 

For example, if a 3 WAR player in 2009 and signs a 2 year FA contract before the 2010 season, we sum his 2010 and 2011 production and see how that compares to the $ he was paid. Rinse and repeat for all FA contracts and you get your league wide #s. Doing this by hand is obviously a colossal pain in the ass.

 

With all the new money in baseball I'm guessing we would find this number is actually north of $10M this offseason.

 

I can't get my head off of this subject. I'm just not really seeing the 9M or 10M figure anywhere.

 

For anyone else who cares, this comment thread has an abundance of information. Tango, MGL, Swartz, and others commenting on a pretty good study.

 

http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/how-much-do-wins-cost

 

I also found this 1-2 year old Swartz study that looks like it found about ~6M in 2011 with a trend of roughly ~6% inflation. So say 7.25M this offseason. This corroborates the more recent study from the first post.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-retrospective-look-at-the-price-of-a-win-part-two/

 

More than anything though, I've found the question to be extremely complicated. It's obvious that the cost/win in free agency isn't the cost/win in all of baseball. The most efficient way to add wins is through league min and low arb players. The Rays pay like 2 million bucks per win, or something like that. The Blue Jays probably paid a near free agency rate for all of their wins above replacement last season. A win near the 90 win mark is worth a lot more than a win anywhere else, so value is very relative. $/WAR value calculations might be more dubious than informative in some circumstances. I'm wary of the entire exercise.

[KingKat]

I can't get my head off of this subject. I'm just not really seeing the 9M or 10M figure anywhere.

 

For anyone else who cares, this comment thread has an abundance of information. Tango, MGL, Swartz, and others commenting on a pretty good study.

http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/how-much-do-wins-cost

 

Don't know if this helps but I seem to recall that the 9M figure first came up in an interview with the Cleveland front office where they basically just blurted it out. It took off from there.

[ace3113]

http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/2013/11/25/navarro-moving-to-a-resolution-could-jays-be-involved/

Navarro Deal Close, Could Jays Be Involved?

 

I don’t usually bother putting together a full post about every little rumour that doesn’t directly involve the Jays– though that’s quite possibly a lie, actually– which is why it’s fortunate tonight, I suppose, that MLBTR has done me the favour of throwing the Jays’ name into the mix in their post about this Peter Gammons tweet that you may have noticed I retweeted this afternoon:

 

 

MLBTR explains:

 

The Blue Jays have been said to be in the market for a catcher, as have the Twins, in light of the news that Joe Mauer’s days behind the plate are done and he will be a first baseman going forward. The Rays don’t figure to be in the mix after reaching an agreement with Jose Molina over the weekend.

 

We know that the Rockies have been looking for a catcher as well, and surely there are other clubs who could be in the market as well (what am I, Google?), but it certainly could be the Jays who are the club that’s closing in his signature. I mean… possibly? Right?

 

And if so, that’s pretty OK.

 

No, really! Here’s what I wrote back in early October, as I was learning to stop worrying and love the free agent market for catching:

 

How about, then, someone to pair with Josh Thole, who we know can catch Dickey and is also still under contract?

 

Pierzynski still technically works in that scenario, though it would mean always having his bat in the lineup against left-handers. On the other hand, Dioner Navarro has absolutely mashed left-handed pitching over the last three years, albeit in a small sample (.392 wOBA over 125 plate appearances), and has done well in the split in the minors over that time as well, and in his career as a big leaguer, though the bulk of those plate appearances are from 2009 and before.

 

Navarro is a switch hitter, too, so you wouldn’t necessarily be committing to Thole as the more active half of a lefty-righty platoon. However, in Navarro’s last 416 plate appearances against right-handed pitching his wOBA is just .305. His on-base is .311, though, which by the standard we’ve grown accustomed to around here is downright decent. The high OBP watermark for Arencibia in his three years is .282, and over that span against right-handers it’s a pitiful .257.

 

Holy s***, I think I actually just talked myself into Navarro– sad as it is to think that a .305 wOBA and .311 on-base against right-handers is, like, a vast improvement.

 

That, of course, says nothing of his defence, which… is probably for the best. In his final Fogging The Measure post for Getting Blanked, back at the end of August, Matt Klaassen’s catcher defence rankings (which don’t include pitch framing, at which Navarro doesn’t seem to rate particularly well at either) had him very near the bottom, at three runs below average– though he was only slightly behind Josh Thole, while clearly better than Arencibia.

 

And… uh… that is, after all, the whole point, isn’t it?

 

So… there’s that. (There’s also this tweet purportedly from a reporter in the Dominican that says the Jays have offered four prospects for Jeff Samardzija, but let’s not even bother with that one, OK?)

[P2F]

What's this Dominican rumour?

 

Though that blog post bears nothing but bad news, this was by far my least favourite part.

[Frenchsoup]

 

It all depends on the quality of the prospect... if it's a Happ-like package of 4+ guys, do it.

 

 

Is drabek still considered a prospect?

[ElNik2013]

Something's going to happen anyday now. I'm nervous

 

 

 

I was trying to sleep early tonight...oh well.

[P2F]

 

It all depends on the quality of the prospect... if it's a Happ-like package of 4+ guys, do it.

 

Sure - Sierra, Gose, Nolin, Stilson, for example, you pull the trigger on, no doubt. But I'm certain the Cubs would want Stroman or Sanchez here.

[z3r0s]

Robert aka Dogg is a friend of mine. No jokes he has changed. Now he goes to college and even went out on dates this month. Even on his own now

 

He is twice the human being you guys are. He is a devoted christian

 

 

 

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk 2

 

omfg ban this guy asap. I don't need anything dogg infiltrating this board... please mods have mercy (not on him, on the rest of us)

[Terminator]

College? He has been trolling the blue jays message board since he was 10?

 

MAybe not quite 10 but close. He was very young when he started trolling.lol

 

It's amazing the level of dedication he had.

[agrushcow]

Sure - Sierra, Gose, Nolin, Stilson, for example, you pull the trigger on, no doubt. But I'm certain the Cubs would want Stroman or Sanchez here.

 

Honestly I would hate that. That's way too much for a mid rotation starter in my book. Maybe just 1 OF would make me more comfortable, I think Sierra getting traded could burn us, gotta weird feeling.

[Abomination]

omfg ban this guy asap. I don't need anything dogg infiltrating this board... please mods have mercy (not on him, on the rest of us)

 

Just ignore him and apply that stylish fix I posted a long time ago (unless you're one of the unlucky ones it doesn't work for). The only time you see them is if someone quotes them to complain about what idiots they are...