Early Offseason Target: Could the Blue Jays Pursue Luis Arraez?

[Jim Scott]

The Jays’ 2026 season has been disappointing on many levels, including starting pitching injuries and underperformance, closer instability, and breakthroughs by Daulton Varsho and Ernie Clement in 2025 that did not carry through to 2026. But possibly the most visible surprise has been in the hitting.  In 2025, the Jays’ 112 wRC+ and 798 runs scored were both fourth in MLB. So far in 2026 (before games on September 15), their 96 wRC+ is 23rd and their 613 runs scored rank 29th.

There are grounds for optimism in 2027. Newcomers Josh Smith and Brett Bateman have (in small samples) wRC+ figures over 130. Addison Barger and Anthony Santander are expected back.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s xStat line is substantially higher than his regular season stats. But Toronto should still be thinking about ways to make the team better at the plate.

Unfortunately for the Jays, this year’s position player free agent class is limited. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has a solid .232/.312/.403 stat line, but his xStats of .218/.296/.370 are less attractive. Seiya Suzuki has a strong .268/.367/.474 line with 24 home runs, but his xStat line is .246/.345/.426, and he will turn 33 in 2027. His average exit velo / barrel % / hard hit % / LA sweet spot % percentiles have gone from 79th/95th/82nd/94th in 2025 to 40th/70th/41st/81th so far in 2026.

There may, however, be another option.

For years, Luis Arraez has been the epitome of lumber over leather. He won the batting title three times in a row from 2022 to 2024 (with three different teams!). But his -17 Outs Above Average over those three years ranked 32nd out of 34 qualifying second basemen – enough to bring his average fWAR over those three years to a cromulent 2.4. His power is also extremely limited; his career average ISO is .098 (major league average varies around .160), and he has never hit over 10 home runs in a season in his eight-year MLB career. His defensive shortcomings have limited him to playing at first base or designated hitter at times, both of which usually command a different offensive profile.

So why would the Jays be interested in such a one-trick pony?

Because of his 2026.

From 2022 to 2025, Arraez had -19 Outs Above Average, ranking 37th among 39 qualifying second basemen. It was his Achilles' heel – the thing that kept him from stardom. But 2026 has been an epiphany. After working with renowned infield coach Ron Washington with the Giants, Arraez has improved enough to be called the most improved defensive player in 2026. This has translated into a 4.0 fWAR so far this year.

Is he a perfect fit? Probably not. There are questions about the sustainability of his surge, particularly without Washington’s magic, and he will be turning 30 in 2027. Some might argue that, with players like Bateman (2026 ISO .100), Alejandro Kirk (career ISO .132) and Andrés Giménez (career .127), what the Jays need is more power, not more base hits. But converting a solo home run into a two-run shot has the same impact as hitting a second solo homer, and (as Arraez’s own career earnings have demonstrated) often singles hitters are appreciated less than long-ball mashers.  

The Bottom Line

Arraez would be a gamble. If his defensive epiphany is only a blip, he could go from MLB's most improved defensive player to MLB's most expensive bench bat. But that uncertainty might make him easier to acquire than a conventional power hitter (he is only earning $12 million this year), and a potential top-of-the-order of Bateman + Arraez has holy-cow-Batman potential.  

Of course, the possible lockout is the ultimate wild card in any free agent speculation. Particularly when the player is on the wrong side of 30. But, again, what some teams call “risk” in that scenario, others might see as opportunity.

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[Terminator]

Ross Atkins dreams of the chance to acquire the king of all slap hitters. He'll be a Blue Jay.

[JaysFan99]

My pipe dream is Bichette opts out and comes back to play 2B.  Move Clement back to a utility infielder.

[John_Havok]

Definitely has the power hitting profile this team covets. 

[jaysblue]

I’d rather bring Bo back to play second base if he opts out of his deal with the Mets.

I wouldn’t complain about Arraez, though defensively he doesn’t really fit this front office’s MO. And even if they did bring him in, they’d still need to find more power elsewhere in the lineup.

[max silver]

4 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

I’d rather bring Bo back to play second base if he opts out of his deal with the Mets.

I wouldn’t complain about Arraez, though defensively he doesn’t really fit this front office’s MO. And even if they did bring him in, they’d still need to find more power elsewhere in the lineup.

With Arraez I'm not particularly convinced the defensive improvements are going to stick long term over the course of his eventual deal. He's coming off of 1.2 and 0.9 win seasons with pretty similar offensive output compared to this season and I just don't think his bat will come close to breaking even on a long term deal when the defense inevitably slides.

[Governator]

Why would Bo opt out after that lackluster season?

[Omar]

37 minutes ago, Governator said:

Why would Bo opt out after that lackluster season?

1. He apparently hates it on the Mets.

2. Weak free agent market may help get a longer term deal somewhere he is more happy.

3. The further away from Steve Cohen the better.

 

[Masterbather]

We already have a top of the order slap hitter.

[hanton]

10 hours ago, JaysFan99 said:

My pipe dream is Bichette opts out and comes back to play 2B.  Move Clement back to a utility infielder.

I want bo back

[Spanky__99]

5 hours ago, Governator said:

Why would Bo opt out after that lackluster season?

Cause he's killed it in the second half?

[John_Havok]

6 hours ago, max silver said:

With Arraez I'm not particularly convinced the defensive improvements are going to stick long term over the course of his eventual deal. He's coming off of 1.2 and 0.9 win seasons with pretty similar offensive output compared to this season and I just don't think his bat will come close to breaking even on a long term deal when the defense inevitably slides.

Mlb network was practically jerking off to Arraez earlier tonight saying he was just like Tony Gwynn as a "master of his craft"

And this was followed by another 5 minutes about batting average was better way to judge a hitter than using OPS because "nobody asks you in high school or college what your OPS is and when youre there you always tell other people what your average is..."

Seriously, MLB pays people to be that far behind baseball reality.

[max silver]

9 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

Cause he's killed it in the second half?

The bad first half results still count too towards his season totals. And his second half has him only sitting at 109 wRC+ which is hardly killing it, especially by his own standards.

[Olerud363.354]

I was yes last year, probably no this year. 

The reason I was yes is that he was a 1 WAR player, but maybe that was deceptive because of errors in how his defense was measured.  So maybe you could get a 2.5 WAR player for a good price. 

Now he is a 4 WAR player but his defense as measured is awesome, so like, that wrinkle is gone.  Like if he going to be paid as a 4 WAR player you aren't getting a deal, and perhaps a disaster. 

[Governator]

10 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

Cause he's killed it in the second half?

He'd be dumb to walk away from $80 whatever million owed to him. He's literally the highest paid infielder in the bigs while producing as an average player right now.  No one is going to give him what he'd want based on a decent August. He's got to work hard over the winter, start the season off right and he'll win the fans over. He's not an unlikeable guy, he just needs to keep playing up to his standards.

[Brownie19]

29 minutes ago, Governator said:

He'd be dumb to walk away from $80 whatever million owed to him. He's literally the highest paid infielder in the bigs while producing as an average player right now.  No one is going to give him what he'd want based on a decent August. He's got to work hard over the winter, start the season off right and he'll win the fans over. He's not an unlikeable guy, he just needs to keep playing up to his standards.

He'd have 2 years $84M left and Year 3 is a player option, so he can opt out after next year too if he wants.  He holds the cards.  I guess if someone wants to give him 5 years $150M with more opts outs, then he'd consider it - especially if he hates it on the Mets.

Power is down again this year.  IMO, he needs to keep his ISO over .160 to remain a star.  Long term deals for Bo remain quite risky.  What a comeback story it would be for him to return and help turn this team around.  Tony Fernandez like stuff maybe? 

[max silver]

17 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

He'd have 2 years $84M left and Year 3 is a player option, so he can opt out after next year too if he wants.  He holds the cards.  I guess if someone wants to give him 5 years $150M with more opts outs, then he'd consider it - especially if he hates it on the Mets.

Power is down again this year.  IMO, he needs to keep his ISO over .160 to remain a star.  Long term deals for Bo remain quite risky.  What a comeback story it would be for him to return and help turn this team around.  Tony Fernandez like stuff maybe? 

I do believe if Bo is able to rebound offensively next season on the way to a better platform season it could make sense for him to opt out. He's largely put the defensive concerns to rest as he's been a solid enough defender at third base but I just don't see any teams offering a sufficient contract this offseason to make opting out worthwhile at this juncture. Furthermore I just can't see this Blue Jays front office offering him a lucrative enough deal to make him seriously consider rejoining the Blue Jays as they were perfectly willing to let him walk due to not being able to align on contract value previously.

[Terminator]

All Ross Atkins slap-hitter jokes aside, I would take Arraez in a second.

It's fun to watch players on your team get hits, and he's the best in MLB at doing that. It's also fun to have quirky players who make it work. Tyler Rogers is that kind of player and he's been a blast to watch this year.

I don't trust Arraez to remain a Gold Glove 2B moving forward, but it's clear something has changed here. I think you can expect him to at least be competent there, with a chance to remain above average for the next 2–3 years.

And what's he really going to cost after signing a one-year deal last offseason? 3/$50M? 4/$65M? Who gives a crap, that's chump change in today's MLB. Sign me up.

[John_Havok]

15 minutes ago, Terminator said:

All Ross Atkins slap-hitter jokes aside, I would take Arraez in a second.

It's fun to watch players on your team get hits, and he's the best in MLB at doing that. It's also fun to have quirky players who make it work. Tyler Rogers is that kind of player and he's been a blast to watch this year.

I don't trust Arraez to remain a Gold Glove 2B moving forward, but it's clear something has changed here. I think you can expect him to at least be competent there, with a chance to remain above average for the next 2–3 years.

And what's he really going to cost after signing a one-year deal last offseason? 3/$50M? 4/$65M? Who gives a crap, that's chump change in today's MLB. Sign me up.

I wouldnt want to go toooooo long term at all if they did want to bring him in, my concern is the 1-trick pony aspect of his profile that as soon as that 1 skill drops even 1 tier for him, he becomes a huge liability. 

[max silver]

42 minutes ago, Terminator said:

All Ross Atkins slap-hitter jokes aside, I would take Arraez in a second.

It's fun to watch players on your team get hits, and he's the best in MLB at doing that. It's also fun to have quirky players who make it work. Tyler Rogers is that kind of player and he's been a blast to watch this year.

I don't trust Arraez to remain a Gold Glove 2B moving forward, but it's clear something has changed here. I think you can expect him to at least be competent there, with a chance to remain above average for the next 2–3 years.

And what's he really going to cost after signing a one-year deal last offseason? 3/$50M? 4/$65M? Who gives a crap, that's chump change in today's MLB. Sign me up.

Arraez is sort of like a high end version of Ernie Clement this season. I'd hate to hazard a guess what his eventual deal will look like, as there's a very high chance of a dumb owner and/or front office in offering him a premium player deal based on his career season.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Yeah I'd go after Arraez and Arozarena.

Santander may as well be deceased at this point. I wouldn't count on him for anything. Love Springer but he's always banged up it seems, and at 35+ it likely isn't getting any better.

I also hope Kwan is too expensive for the Guardians now, and the Jays swing a trade for him. Can't count on Bateman to be this good going forward, but if he is it'd just be a bonus and having both Kwan and this version of Bateman wouldn't be a bad thing either.

 

CF/LF - Kwan

2B - Arraez

1B - Vlad

LF - Arozarena

DH - Barger (OR Santander if healthy)

C - Kirk

3B - Okamoto

CF/LF - Bateman

SS - Giminez

 

Bench C - Valenzuela

Bench UT - Smith, Clement

Bench OF - Lukes

[John_Havok]

55 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Yeah I'd go after Arraez and Arozarena.

Santander may as well be deceased at this point. I wouldn't count on him for anything. Love Springer but he's always banged up it seems, and at 35+ it likely isn't getting any better.

I also hope Kwan is too expensive for the Guardians now, and the Jays swing a trade for him. Can't count on Bateman to be this good going forward, but if he is it'd just be a bonus and having both Kwan and this version of Bateman wouldn't be a bad thing either.

 

CF/LF - Kwan

2B - Arraez

1B - Vlad

LF - Arozarena

DH - Barger (OR Santander if healthy)

C - Kirk

3B - Okamoto

CF/LF - Bateman

SS - Giminez

 

Bench C - Valenzuela

Bench UT - Smith, Clement

Bench OF - Lukes

Not sure I agree with a 30 HR hitter in the 7 spot, but the players themselves should be an improved offense. 

The obvious problem... age. 

[Terminator]

2 hours ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Yeah I'd go after Arraez and Arozarena.

Santander may as well be deceased at this point. I wouldn't count on him for anything. Love Springer but he's always banged up it seems, and at 35+ it likely isn't getting any better.

I also hope Kwan is too expensive for the Guardians now, and the Jays swing a trade for him. Can't count on Bateman to be this good going forward, but if he is it'd just be a bonus and having both Kwan and this version of Bateman wouldn't be a bad thing either.

 

CF/LF - Kwan

2B - Arraez

1B - Vlad

LF - Arozarena

DH - Barger (OR Santander if healthy)

C - Kirk

3B - Okamoto

CF/LF - Bateman

SS - Giminez

 

Bench C - Valenzuela

Bench UT - Smith, Clement

Bench OF - Lukes

Kwan, Arraez and Vlad are the three premier slap hitters in all of baseball. The World Series will be easy to make.

Love the depth throughout this mock lineup but also the bench and even AAA would have some good depth too.

If they want to go heavy on pitching in FA, they might be able to get away with no Aroz and use Lukes/Barger/Taters/Keys in one corner spot and DH?

I'll probably get tarred and feathered for suggesting only Kwan and Arraez is enough to turn this lineup around but I think we will get some strong rebounds from Vlad, Barger, etc. Lean in to the slap hitting!

[Laika]

Please God no 

[max silver]

40 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Kwan, Arraez and Vlad are the three premier slap hitters in all of baseball. The World Series will be easy to make.

Love the depth throughout this mock lineup but also the bench and even AAA would have some good depth too.

If they want to go heavy on pitching in FA, they might be able to get away with no Aroz and use Lukes/Barger/Taters/Keys in one corner spot and DH?

I'll probably get tarred and feathered for suggesting only Kwan and Arraez is enough to turn this lineup around but I think we will get some strong rebounds from Vlad, Barger, etc. Lean in to the slap hitting!

If Bateman's early results end up holding you could add him to that list as well.