Early Offseason Target: Could the Blue Jays Pursue Luis Arraez?

The Jays’ 2026 season has been disappointing on many levels, including starting pitching injuries and underperformance, closer instability, and breakthroughs by Daulton Varsho and Ernie Clement in 2025 that did not carry through to 2026. But possibly the most visible surprise has been in the hitting.  In 2025, the Jays’ 112 wRC+ and 798 runs scored were both fourth in MLB. So far in 2026 (before games on September 15), their 96 wRC+ is 23rd and their 613 runs scored rank 29th.

There are grounds for optimism in 2027. Newcomers Josh Smith and Brett Bateman have (in small samples) wRC+ figures over 130. Addison Barger and Anthony Santander are expected back.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s xStat line is substantially higher than his regular season stats. But Toronto should still be thinking about ways to make the team better at the plate.

Unfortunately for the Jays, this year’s position player free agent class is limited. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has a solid .232/.312/.403 stat line, but his xStats of .218/.296/.370 are less attractive. Seiya Suzuki has a strong .268/.367/.474 line with 24 home runs, but his xStat line is .246/.345/.426, and he will turn 33 in 2027. His average exit velo / barrel % / hard hit % / LA sweet spot % percentiles have gone from 79th/95th/82nd/94th in 2025 to 40th/70th/41st/81th so far in 2026.

There may, however, be another option.

For years, Luis Arraez has been the epitome of lumber over leather. He won the batting title three times in a row from 2022 to 2024 (with three different teams!). But his -17 Outs Above Average over those three years ranked 32nd out of 34 qualifying second basemen – enough to bring his average fWAR over those three years to a cromulent 2.4. His power is also extremely limited; his career average ISO is .098 (major league average varies around .160), and he has never hit over 10 home runs in a season in his eight-year MLB career. His defensive shortcomings have limited him to playing at first base or designated hitter at times, both of which usually command a different offensive profile.

So why would the Jays be interested in such a one-trick pony?

Because of his 2026.

From 2022 to 2025, Arraez had -19 Outs Above Average, ranking 37th among 39 qualifying second basemen. It was his Achilles' heel – the thing that kept him from stardom. But 2026 has been an epiphany. After working with renowned infield coach Ron Washington with the Giants, Arraez has improved enough to be called the most improved defensive player in 2026. This has translated into a 4.0 fWAR so far this year.

Is he a perfect fit? Probably not. There are questions about the sustainability of his surge, particularly without Washington’s magic, and he will be turning 30 in 2027. Some might argue that, with players like Bateman (2026 ISO .100), Alejandro Kirk (career ISO .132) and Andrés Giménez (career .127), what the Jays need is more power, not more base hits. But converting a solo home run into a two-run shot has the same impact as hitting a second solo homer, and (as Arraez’s own career earnings have demonstrated) often singles hitters are appreciated less than long-ball mashers.  

The Bottom Line

Arraez would be a gamble. If his defensive epiphany is only a blip, he could go from MLB's most improved defensive player to MLB's most expensive bench bat. But that uncertainty might make him easier to acquire than a conventional power hitter (he is only earning $12 million this year), and a potential top-of-the-order of Bateman + Arraez has holy-cow-Batman potential.  

Of course, the possible lockout is the ultimate wild card in any free agent speculation. Particularly when the player is on the wrong side of 30. But, again, what some teams call “risk” in that scenario, others might see as opportunity.

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