Spring training GDT

[BTS]

9 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Yeah this is fair.

I don’t expect Springer to come near his 2025 performance. Hopefully he can just be the player he was with the bat from 2018-2022.

Okamoto is a bit of a wildcard, but should be able to sustain at least a league average offensive output.

The rest of the guys aren’t a longshot to repeat or be better than they were 2025.

I think the Santander loss hurts us more than others believe, but he didn’t do anything last year anyways so whatever.

I think the projections on Santander are basically what should have been expected. His xwOBA the last three years: 0.319, 0.327, 0.265. And Steamer/ZiPS have him at 0.323. Translates to like 1-1.5 WAR for someone who's in decline athletically and is purely a DH. Like, the projections done by the computers also seem intuitively right to me.

Of course there's a path to him being a 2-3 WAR guy, but its like:

- significantly outperform his xwOBA like he did in 2023 and 2024 (his xwOBA and wOBA are identical for his career)

- stay healthy

- revert to where he was athletically in 2024 (baserunning and defense). But that was two years and a major injury ago

We all just watched Springer turn back time, so of course anything is possible. But I don't have a hard time buying Santander as an easily replaceable ~1.5 win corner OF if he's healthy, and I think a Sanchez/Schneider platoon covers that without any loss. 

[max silver]

3 minutes ago, BTS said:

I think the projections on Santander are basically what should have been expected. His xwOBA the last three years: 0.319, 0.327, 0.265. And Steamer/ZiPS have him at 0.323. Translates to like 1-1.5 WAR for someone who's in decline athletically and is purely a DH. Like, the projections done by the computers also seem intuitively right to me.

Of course there's a path to him being a 2-3 WAR guy, but its like:

- significantly outperform his xwOBA like he did in 2023 and 2024 (his xwOBA and wOBA are identical for his career)

- stay healthy

- revert to where he was athletically in 2024 (baserunning and defense). But that was two years and a major injury ago

We all just watched Springer turn back time, so of course anything is possible. But I don't have a hard time buying Santander as an easily replaceable ~1.5 win corner OF if he's healthy, and I think a Sanchez/Schneider platoon covers that without any loss. 

I don't think there was enough 2025 data on a healthy Santander to make any kind of informed projections for what to expect of him moving forward. Santander is exactly the type of player who can reliably be expected to beat his expected stats as he excels at pulling the ball into the seats, and whether that comes back will be the deciding factor towards whether he's productive moving forward. He was only really healthy for about the first 5 weeks of the season, and when he came back he couldn't even swing the bat at full speed from both sides of the plate as his shoulder was still holding him back. He's being judged as washed up largely based on a bad first month of the season where he struggled out of the gates to a larger degree than usual. If the power doesn't come back fully after the shoulder was finally surgically repaired he could easily end up being a release candidate as this is his primary positive attribute but we are far from that point. 

[Brownie19]

11 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Anyways, we still have a deep lineup with good depth... just lack top end talent.  Its nitpicking because we're stacked in almost every other facet.  Just feel if this season goes astray, it will be because of our offense imo.  

 

4 hours ago, jaysblue said:

That’s still a functional, competitive AL offence over 162 games. Not elite unless someone breaks out but not bottom-tier either. 

I believe we're currently projected to have the 3rd highest offensive WAR across all of MLB...Fangraphs projects 8th in MLB in runs/game.

Projections are never perfect, but we're starting the year in pretty good shape.

[BTS]

32 minutes ago, max silver said:

I don't think there was enough 2025 data on a healthy Santander to make any kind of informed projections for what to expect of him moving forward. Santander is exactly the type of player who can reliably be expected to beat his expected stats as he excels at pulling the ball into the seats, and whether that comes back will be the deciding factor towards whether he's productive moving forward. He was only really healthy for about the first 5 weeks of the season, and when he came back he couldn't even swing the bat at full speed from both sides of the plate as his shoulder was still holding him back. He's being judged as washed up largely based on a bad first month of the season where he struggled out of the gates to a larger degree than usual. If the power doesn't come back fully after the shoulder was finally surgically repaired he could easily end up being a release candidate as this is his primary positive attribute but we are far from that point. 

But I don't think that's actually true. He's being projected to put up a 0.323 wOBA. He was at 0.319 xwOBA 2023 and 0.327 in 2024. He also has a career 0.325 wOBA and 0.325 xwOBA. 

[max silver]

3 hours ago, jaysblue said:

I think the real debate isn’t whether the Toronto Blue Jays offence is “bad” - it’s whether the core guys can realistically repeat what they did in 2025.

Start with George Springer. If he gives you something close to last season again - solid OBP, 20-25+ HR power, competitive at-bats at the top - that stabilizes the lineup. He doesn't have to be 2025 Springer. He just has to come close to being that. 

Then there’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. Even in years where the surface numbers don’t scream MVP, the quality-of-contact metrics remain strong. If he simply repeats 2025 and maybe gets slightly better HR variance like he showed in the Postseason, that’s legitimate middle-of-the-order impact.

The bigger concern is depth replacing what’s been lost. The lineup probably doesn’t have as much margin for underperformance anymore. But that doesn’t automatically make it weak. It just makes repeatability more important.

If:

Springer ≈ 2025 Springer

Vlad ≈ 2025 Vlad

Other guys repeating like Kirk and Clement with the sticks, and Okamoto being a main piece. 

The secondary pieces hover around league average and stay healthy.

That’s still a functional, competitive AL offence over 162 games. Not elite unless someone breaks out but not bottom-tier either. 

I believe there's enough talent on this team for it to end up in a similar position in overall runs scored to 2025 where they finished 4th in MLB. I suspect it's entirely possible if not even likely that they won't enjoy the same kind of peak offensive output where they were overwhelmingly MLB's best offense for 5 months of regular season+playoffs but I don't think scoring enough runs to win should be much of a concern. The 2025 offensive breakout didn't happen by random chance as the Blue Jays hired the modern/progressive hitting coach that they were lacking previously, and the improved practice routines and pregame planning were keys to allowing the hitters to succeed on a day to day basis. It remains to be seen how key Hunter Mense was to this success as he left for an opportunity of his own, but I believe the hitters are still in good hands moving forward. 

I can agree there is a lot of variability on this roster and a lot of questions to be answered that will determine this lineup's ceiling:

• How much of the resurgence can Springer repeat? I think he's going to continue to mash as he's "fixed" at the plate, but expecting a 166 wRC+ from a 36 year old player is extremely unlikely so he'll almost experience a bit of a dropoff. 
• What is Vlad moving forward? He teases us pretty much every season, particularly in the second half where he spends months at a time looking like the heir apparent to Aaron Judge at the plate. If he finally reaches his ceiling year in and year out this could allow the 2025 offense to be a regular occurence
• Can Varsho sustain his 2025 power output over a full season? I think the new power is very real, but it remains to be seen whether he can continue to find the barrel to the same degree over a full season given the hit tool concerns. If he's a 30+ home run bat that's a massive boost in the power department.
• Is Barger on the verge of a star breakout? He's shown an impressive ability to make adjustments at this early point of his MLB career, and his toolset suggests there could be a monster power bat waiting to emerge if he can find a tad more consistency at the plate to allow him to avoid extended slumps. 
• What is Okamoto's ceiling in MLB? Projection systems are fully onboard with Okamoto being an above average hitter, but he'll need to prove that he can continue to make contact at an above average rate against much better pitching and that the power will continue to play in the majors. I believe he's going to prove to be a massive bargain at only $15 million AAV but there is bound to be an adjustment period as he learns the pitchers in MLB and and adjusts to higher velocity.
• What are the bottom of the order hitters going to provide? I think this will be a key to whether the team can continue to lead the league in runs as the bottom of the order did a great job getting on base last season and turning things over to the top of the order. I believe that Clement can continue to provide something approximating league average offense but there is potential for a little more, Gimenez should almost certainly be better with the stick with better lower half health and he was almost comically unlucky with the results on his batted balls in play. 
• What can be expected from the bench? This group largely exceeded expectations in 2025, and some of them are likely going to take a step or two back at the plate. Straw was a very pleasant surprise, but his track record of being one of MLB's worst hitters can't be ignored. Heineman outproduced his expected statistics by 65-70 points and is a prime candidate for regression, Schneider is likely going to continue to be a solid bench bat but he's experienced a full season of struggles previously, and finally Lukes should likely continue to be somewhere around league average with the stick
• What are Sanchez and Eloy Jimenez going to provide? I think these two are massive wildcards, and if one of them pops a bit this could provide a massive boon to the lineup. Sanchez is capable of hitting balls 500 feet, and if Popkins and co. can help him get to that power in game more frequently he could be a very potent platoon bat. I'm very intrigued by Jimenez as he's improved his body and still appears to possess at least some of the skillset that made him such a promising hitter earlier in his career.

[max silver]

28 minutes ago, BTS said:

But I don't think that's actually true. He's being projected to put up a 0.323 wOBA. He was at 0.319 xwOBA 2023 and 0.327 in 2024. He also has a career 0.325 wOBA and 0.325 xwOBA. 

Santander's career numbers aren't terribly relevant as he experienced a breakout season at the age of 27.

[abola2121]

3 hours ago, mphenhef said:

Something Buster Olney recently mentioned that I hadn't heard or read anywhere else is that Vlad started focusing more on the opposing pitchers in the playoffs and less on his own mechanics.  If that is a meaningful change (hard to say if it would be) it could unlock a better season overall for him too.

 

I have long said Kirk is a better batter when he gets more time.  Hopefully they continue to trust him at the work rate he had last year.

Carlos Delgado was well known for that.

[BTS]

1 minute ago, max silver said:

Santander's career numbers aren't terribly relevant as he experienced a breakout season at the age of 27.

Since his age-27 season he has a 0.332 wOBA and 0.327 xwOBA. 

[Laika]

But where are the goal posts? What are you asking them to repeat? 

No reasonable person is going to expect them to be the best team offensively in the postseason again, and set records and have the best single hitter in the playoffs. 

But over 162 last year the team was 2nd in fWAR and 4th or 5th in total offense (wRC+) but the total offense group was pretty tight and teams #2 to #9 were all between 107 and 113 so more or less equal. And they project for the 4th highest position player fWAR, right now, basically in a dead heat with BAL and NYY for #1 in the AL. 

 

This completely ignores any player specific stuff. All of that gets washed out in the projection systems which only give Springer like 2.4 fWAR and only two stars who are higher than 2.8 fWAR in Kirk and Vlad. 

I guess I am just confused about what the concern is, lol. 

Yes, baseball is random and players get hurt or suck out of nowhere all the time. That could happen. The sky could fall on the Blue Jays. Chicken little! It's possible. Be scared of the sky if you want. But he team is deep and projects well. What more do you f***ing want lmao. 

[Terminator]

Santander kind of sucks now but whenever he is back he can just platoon in a corner spot or DH from now until the end of the decade and it won't kill us.

If he ever sucks enough just drop his ass. 13 mil a year is a drop in the bucket.

[Laika]

Keegan Matheson

 

@KeeganMatheson

 

 

Health news: Ricky Tiedemann felt some left elbow soreness after his last side session. He underwent an MRI and it was clean, but he’ll back off for a week. #BlueJays

 

 

Just take this guy out behind the Dunedin wood shed and shoot him already. 

[Brownie19]

20 minutes ago, Laika said:

Yes, baseball is random and players get hurt or suck out of nowhere all the time. That could happen. The sky could fall on the Blue Jays. Chicken little! It's possible. Be scared of the sky if you want. But he team is deep and projects well. What more do you f***ing want lmao. 

For some - if they can't complain about something - they have nothing to say, which seemingly makes them uncomfortable, so they complain and/or worry out loud...

Que the response that he's trying to uphold his reputation of being a whiny turd - like that's acceptable justification.

[glory]

Man, just make Ricky a reliever and then hope for the best health/performance-wise. No chance he holds up as a SP. 

[max silver]

2 minutes ago, glory said:

Man, just make Ricky a reliever and then hope for the best health/performance-wise. No chance he holds up as a SP. 

I believe the club was already on this path for the season as Ricky was going to function as a bulk reliever.

[Laika]

Chay Yeager probably getting TJS

Not a top 30 guy or viable 2026 depth but he was an actual middle relief prospect with a 2027 timeline. Too bad. 

Quote

Yeager has an above-average two-pitch mix. He gained five ticks on his slider from when I first saw him in early 2024 to when I caught him again last summer. Suffice to say, that's hard to predict and he deserves a lot of credit for the transformation. His fastball ticked up a bit as well, and he now touches 99; the velo is enough to miss bats even though he doesn't get a lot of extension. His slider flashes plus and is a tight bender that appears more firm than sharp to my eye, but hitters look bad against it, and missed on more than 40% of their swings last year. The arsenal is shallow and the stuff isn't quite late-inning loud, but Yeager has enough in the holster to project as an optionable reliever. Sometimes those guys turn into long-term middle relievers.

 

[Brownie19]

6 minutes ago, glory said:

Man, just make Ricky a reliever and then hope for the best health/performance-wise. No chance he holds up as a SP. 

He might not hold up working at the DMV at this point.  

This is the reality you face when players develop large velo jumps.  Some (lots?) of them are going to break.

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, BTS said:

Since his age-27 season he has a 0.332 wOBA and 0.327 xwOBA. 

But that also includes 2025 does it not?

I understand its a slight bit of cherry-picking, but im fine completely writing off his 2025 numbers. He’s a notoriously slow starter, and he only played the first month or so of the season before and got injured and tried to play through it, so his numbers are especially bad.

[Stangstag]

58 minutes ago, Laika said:

Keegan Matheson

 

@KeeganMatheson

 

 

Health news: Ricky Tiedemann felt some left elbow soreness after his last side session. He underwent an MRI and it was clean, but he’ll back off for a week. #BlueJays

 

 

Just take this guy out behind the Dunedin wood shed and shoot him already. 

Jesus man, what a disappointing prospect. Most disappointing since… nasty Nate P

[The_DH]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Keegan Matheson

 

@KeeganMatheson

 

 

Health news: Ricky Tiedemann felt some left elbow soreness after his last side session. He underwent an MRI and it was clean, but he’ll back off for a week. #BlueJays

 

 

Just take this guy out behind the Dunedin wood shed and shoot him already. 

Man, the one player I had some high hopes for, even in a bullpen spot.  

[BTS]

6 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

But that also includes 2025 does it not?

I understand its a slight bit of cherry-picking, but im fine completely writing off his 2025 numbers. He’s a notoriously slow starter, and he only played the first month or so of the season before and got injured and tried to play through it, so his numbers are especially bad.

I just can't quite justify the assumption that we should expect him to beat his xwOBA by 20 points going forward because he did in 2023 and 2024 (when he underperformed it if you aggregate every other year of his career). 

[Stangstag]

22 minutes ago, BTS said:

I just can't quite justify the assumption that we should expect him to beat his xwOBA by 20 points going forward because he did in 2023 and 2024 (when he underperformed it if you aggregate every other year of his career). 

Well regardless, that’s all kinda thrown out the window now that he’ll be missing another full year.

These were all hypotheticals based on the fact we thought we’d have a healthy Santander in 2026. 

Who really knows what we get going forward now.

[Laika]

 

Angelo Bastardo Jr. has two legit plus pitches. You'd probably prefer the secondary plus pitch to be the slider to wipeout all righties though. Hmmm. 

[Alejandro Murphy]

The eye test showing solid spring for McAdoo at both sides (offensively and defensively)

 

Maybe we have room to accommodate him.

[Brownie19]

4 minutes ago, Alejandro Murphy said:

The eye test showing solid spring for McAdoo at both sides (offensively and defensively)

 

Maybe we have room to accommodate him.

in AA or AAA?  Yes, there's room for him there.

[Alejandro Murphy]

8 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

in AA or AAA?  Yes, there's room for him there.

Never mind

 

I just jinxed him and missed a pop up. lol

 

Carry on 

[sliderguy35]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

 

Angelo Bastardo Jr. has two legit plus pitches. You'd probably prefer the secondary plus pitch to be the slider to wipeout all righties though. Hmmm. 

yeah he's probably a reverse-splits guy but i think the changeup can play more platoon neutral because of how much depth it gets out of a higher slot, that thing is nasty. 

the fastball is probably more above average than truly plus. he does get above average ride for how hard he throws, but the above average release height & below average extension makes it play down slightly. i think TJ's model undervalues release traits a bit and is too keyed in on velo / raw shape. i'd have it more in the ~105 stuff+ range which is still a good pitch but not a full standard deviation above the mean.

if he's able to throw enough strikes to be relevant, i'd imagine that he forces one of little or fluharty down since they have options & bastardo can essentially fill the lefty killer role. 

[Laika]

 

Guys. It's happening. It's going to happen. He learnded. 

[Laika]

26 minutes ago, sliderguy35 said:

yeah he's probably a reverse-splits guy but i think the changeup can more play platoon neutral because of how much depth it gets out of a higher slot, that thing is nasty. 

the fastball is probably more above average than truly plus. he does get above average ride for how hard he throws, but the above average release height & below average extension makes it play down slightly. i think TJ's model undervalues release traits a bit and is too keyed in on velo / raw shape. i'd have it more in the ~105 stuff+ range which is still a good pitch but not a full standard deviation above the mean.

if he's able to throw enough strikes to be relevant, i'd imagine that he forces one of little or fluharty down since they have options & bastardo can essentially fill the lefty killer role. 

This model is much more muted. I am not familiar with it.

 

 

[Laika]

7 minutes ago, Laika said:

 

Guys. It's happening. It's going to happen. He learnded. 

Goes on to say that the team/coached said "hey let's do that playoff approach in the season" and it is what he is working on this spring. 

Vladdy 50 HR season incoming 

[sliderguy35]

17 minutes ago, Laika said:

This model is much more muted. I am not familiar with it.

 

 

this guy's website is good but he's maybe one of the worst mlb twitter presences out there. all he does is find guys who have at least 1 above average pitch in his model & then post about how underrated / how much of a "demon" they are to try and farm impressions. it makes it hard to take his model seriously