Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2026)

[Omar]

That was a loud out for Bellinger. The Trop strikes again. 

[Omar]

Yankees D. Lol

Schlitting their pants.

[Omar]

Lmao. Yankees gdt just imploded.

[Jays24]

6 minutes ago, Omar said:

Lmao. Yankees gdt just imploded.

Wrong thread lol

[G-Snarls]

Must watch if you're a Jays fan. This is awesome. 

 

 

 

 

[G-Snarls]

This org just has incredible facilities now. 

Shapiro: Former players when they see this say "these guys have no excuse"

LMFAO

[Spanky__99]

2 hours ago, G-Snarls said:

Sorry if already posted. This is awesome. 

 

 

 

 

A division 3 college room, lmao

 

[Spanky__99]

Also, thanks for sharing bro, seems Gate 14 has some pull... that was a fantastic watch.

Blue Jays definitely huntin'

ETA: Wow this was done 4 days before game 1... I've never seen that posted on here. Or I was in a coma...

 

 

[G-Snarls]

38 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

Also, thanks for sharing bro, seems Gate 14 has some pull... that was a fantastic watch.

Blue Jays definitely huntin'

ETA: Wow this was done 4 days before game 1... I've never seen that posted on here. Or I was in a coma...

 

 

Glad I stumbled upon it. One of the best Blue Jays related Videos I've ever watched 

I F'n love Shapiro man. He's been so good for this team. 

[Spanky__99]

3 hours ago, G-Snarls said:

Glad I stumbled upon it. One of the best Blue Jays related Videos I've ever watched 

I F'n love Shapiro man. He's been so good for this team. 

Yeah, he's a smart dude, but a cool dude nonetheless.

That s*** is jaw dropping

 

[abola2121]

On 10/2/2026 at 4:48 PM, glory said:

I think Keys will be traded. His best position is probably 1B, and that position is taken until 2067 when Vlad's contract ends. This team values defense way too much to throw him in LF and hope he sticks, and they barely played him in September. So on this team he's really DH-mainly. That makes him a bit less valuable to the Jays and possibly more valuable in a trade as other teams could use him at 1B or possibly 3B depending on how he looks there. 

Davidi mentioned Abrams, Marte, and Neto as potential trade targets. I don't think the Jays have enough expendable prospect depth to get any of those players but Keys would probably be involved in a deal like that for someone. If Arizona hates Marte enough to sell low then maybe that's an option. 

 

I'd rather see a prospect-for-prospect deal involving Keys to address 2B long-term instead of something resembling the Varsho trade.

[Laika]

1 hour ago, abola2121 said:

I'd rather see a prospect-for-prospect deal involving Keys to address 2B long-term instead of something resembling the Varsho trade.

Will be hard to do.

Keys is not worth much. It would be a AAAA player swap, basically. Toronto would have to identify a low-value dude who ends up being better than expected. Someone like:

Juan Brito, Adael Amador, Edwin Arroyo, Alex Freeland, Christian Moore, Charles McAdoo (for example), Ben Williamson, Vaughn Grissom, Jace Jung 

These guys all suck, of course, even though many will be familiar from former prospect lists. 

[Governator]

15 hours ago, G-Snarls said:

Must watch if you're a Jays fan. This is awesome. 

 

 

 

 

Damn, money well spent.  This must make free agency a little bit easier to convince guys to come to Toronto. This has to be the most luxurious clubhouse in the league.

[jaysblue]

3 hours ago, Governator said:

Damn, money well spent.  This must make free agency a little bit easier to convince guys to come to Toronto. This has to be the most luxurious clubhouse in the league.

I would spend $2000 to stay here one night. 

[Carlos Danger]

Best quote I have ever heard from an angry Yankees fan.

I would have rather spent $22 million on Brazilian hookers, but we got Trent f***IN Grisham! 🤣

 

The link below of angry Yankee fans is gold!! *NSFW at high volume.

 

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1DumWDsJy1/?mibextid=wwXIfr

 

 

[Olerud363.354]

On 10/7/2026 at 1:05 PM, Laika said:

Keys is not worth much. It would be a AAAA player swap,

Weird that he is not worth much.  He has good 2026 stats and good exit velocities.  The .200 average in Vancouver was a bit of a fluke probably (people were pointing out his good exit Vs before his breakout).

On the other hand his lifetime stats are .250 .380 .490 or so... which is the kind of typical aaaa line that doesn't translate well when you knock off the typical 30 points of batting average guys lose off their minor league stats.   And I think the career minor league stats are always important. 

So it kind of depends how you weight his last year.... like if he did this 2 years and a lifetime 1.000 minor league OPS he'd have to be a valuable trade chip. 

[Laika]

9 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Weird that he is not worth much.  He has good 2026 stats and good exit velocities.  The .200 average in Vancouver was a bit of a fluke probably (people were pointing out his good exit Vs before his breakout).

On the other hand his lifetime stats are .250 .380 .490 or so... which is the kind of typical aaaa line that doesn't translate well when you knock off the typical 30 points of batting average guys lose off their minor league stats.   And I think the career minor league stats are always important. 

So it kind of depends how you weight his last year.... like if he did this 2 years and a lifetime 1.000 minor league OPS he'd have to be a valuable trade chip. 

1B/DH prospects need elite tools or age vs level to be worth anything

The offensive bar is just so high 

Most teams probably have a 40 or 45 FV on Keys 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

1B/DH prospects need elite tools or age vs level to be worth anything

The offensive bar is just so high 

Most teams probably have a 40 or 45 FV on Keys 

Good possibility he's another Rowdy Tellez type.

[max silver]

2 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Good possibility he's another Rowdy Tellez type.

Sure it's possible Keys is more of a platoon DH/poor defensive IB type but I believe Keys possesses far higher offensive upside. Tellez produced a 115 wRC+ in his age 23 season in AAA vs Keys who mashed on the way to a 171 wRC+ at the same age. Keys has displayed far more ability to get to his raw power in competition. I hope the club gives him a legitimate chance to be a primary/platoon DH in the upcoming season as he's fully earned a shot with elite performance against minor league pitching. 

[Olerud363.354]

18 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Good possibility he's another Rowdy Tellez type.

Rowdy Tellez hit .270 .340 .450 in the minors in his age 23 season, Keys hit .297 .420 .610.  Lifetime Keys has a way higher walk rate and isolated power.  Career Rowdy was .274 .351 .452 in the minors, Keys .256 .387 .492.  

Interestingly both had a minor league season where the hit like .210 or something.  Rowdy hit .222 .295 .330 in Buffalo his first try, Keys hit .217 .365 .407 in Vancouver.   However I heard on X (formerly known as Twitter) that this was a fluke, because in addition to his awesome walk rate and power his batted ball metrics were good. 

The narrative on Rowdy Tellez as a minor leaguer is that he's a big guy that hits the ball hard, but not elite walk rate and power in the minors.

The narrative on Davis Schneider as a minor leaguer is that he's a smaller guy, with elite walk rate and good power in the minors but not elite batted ball. 

The narrative on Sean Keys in the minors is that he's a big guy, with elite exit V, elite walk rate, elite power, elite batted ball, and a .250 average that may (or may not) be a fluke weighed down by the .210 in Vancouver. 

 

[Terminator]

I agree that Keys isn't worth much but I also agree with those that think he might have some potential.

He appears to have made some sort of adjustment this year and if you ever want to doubt the projections you kind of need evidence of a "true talent change". Maybe he had one happen last year?

If he's not going to net us anything then just put him back in Buffalo and have him play 1B, 3B, and LF and see if he can build on his breakout year. When injuries hit, he can be one of our first callups.

[Brownie19]

4 hours ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Rowdy Tellez hit .270 .340 .450 in the minors in his age 23 season, Keys hit .297 .420 .610.  Lifetime Keys has a way higher walk rate and isolated power.  Career Rowdy was .274 .351 .452 in the minors, Keys .256 .387 .492.  

Interestingly both had a minor league season where the hit like .210 or something.  Rowdy hit .222 .295 .330 in Buffalo his first try, Keys hit .217 .365 .407 in Vancouver.   However I heard on X (formerly known as Twitter) that this was a fluke, because in addition to his awesome walk rate and power his batted ball metrics were good. 

The narrative on Rowdy Tellez as a minor leaguer is that he's a big guy that hits the ball hard, but not elite walk rate and power in the minors.

The narrative on Davis Schneider as a minor leaguer is that he's a smaller guy, with elite walk rate and good power in the minors but not elite batted ball. 

The narrative on Sean Keys in the minors is that he's a big guy, with elite exit V, elite walk rate, elite power, elite batted ball, and a .250 average that may (or may not) be a fluke weighed down by the .210 in Vancouver. 

I knew my comments would draw this type of comparison.  What you're missing here is that Rowdy's mom was diagnosed with brain cancer in December 2016 and she died in August 2018.  This coincides with Rowdy's struggles in AAA.

At 21, Rowdy posted a .297/.387/.530  147 wRC+ season in AA (124 games) - then his mom got sick and died.

At 21, Keys posted a .293/.378/.451  134 wRC+ season in A ball (just 22 games) - Key's parents are both still alive.

I'm also shocked you didn't mention that Tellez was a .305 hitter as a 19 year old in Rookie and A ball (combined).    He always hit for a good average in the minors until the year he played while his mom was dying.

Tellez is a decent comparison.  He never climbed any prospect lists and was never worth much value.  Keys won't either.

[Laika]

Sean Keys is literally just another 1B prospect

There is nothing SPECIFICALLY WRONG with him. His age vs. level isn't horrible. K and BB rates are decent. The bat speed and EVs are there. He was an excellent hitter in the minors and the only knocks on him offensively aren't even knocks, it's just that he's average at some things (whiffs, etc.)

But the tools are not otherworldly, at all. 

And these guys come up all the time. If you overvalue them you end up giving too many plate appearances to Matt Mervis, half the time. Or more than half the time. Becoming a 2 WAR 1B/DH requires extremely high production with the bat. Keys wouldn't project for that. Ergo, he's close to worthless. 

[Laika]

I just asked Claude to pull every "top 10 1B prospect" from mlb.com for 2011 through 2024

77 unique players
14 have 10+ career WAR. But a few of them aren't actually 1B in MLB and got a lot of that value from playing 3B or 2B or OF. Bellinger, Muncy, Yelich, McMahon. Not sure why they were all bucketed as 1B! Scouts are smart. 
The mean career WAR is only 6.5 but it is inflated by the handful of stars at the top 

The median career WAR is 1.0 from this cohort.

I think the median career "top 10 1B prospect" WAR being 1.0 says everything you need to know 

And technically Mr. Keys doesn't even belong to this group. He's never been ranked there. But he's probably as deserving as many so I think it's still fair to lump him here. 

Old Friend Spencer Horwitz is 28th best on this list all time, and counting. Here is THE GRAVEYARD (2 WAR or less, career). 

 

Jake Bauers

Andrew Vaughn

Matt Thaiss

Alex Dickerson

Daniel Vogelbach

Dominic Smith

Dustin Harris

Darin Ruf

Kyle Manzardo

Ronald Guzmán

Greg Bird

Blaze Jordan

Rowdy Tellez

Pavin Smith

Juan Yepez

Lewin Díaz

Chris Parmelee

Brendan McKay

Aaron Sabato

Bobby Bradley

Lars Anderson

Abimelec Ortiz

Niko Kavadas

Evan White

Luken Baker

Neftali Soto

Seth Beer

Jordan Diaz

Tyler Nevin

Sam Travis

Jon Singleton

Tyler Locklear

AJ Reed

Michael Toglia

Chris Marrero

Nick Pratto

Kyle Parker

Matt Mervis

Casey Gillaspie

Grant Lavigne

Haydn McGeary

Hunter Morris

Ivan Melendez

Keon Barnum

Mason Martin

Nathan Martorella

Xavier Isaac

[Terminator]

4 minutes ago, Laika said:

I just asked Claude to pull every "top 10 1B prospect" from mlb.com for 2011 through 2024

77 unique players
14 have 10+ career WAR. But a few of them aren't actually 1B in MLB and got a lot of that value from playing 3B or 2B or OF. Bellinger, Muncy, Yelich, McMahon. Not sure why they were all bucketed as 1B! Scouts are smart. 
The mean career WAR is only 6.5 but it is inflated by the handful of stars at the top 

The median career WAR is 1.0 from this cohort.

I think the median career "top 10 1B prospect" WAR being 1.0 says everything you need to know 

And technically Mr. Keys doesn't even belong to this group. He's never been ranked there. But he's probably as deserving as many so I think it's still fair to lump him here. 

Old Friend Spencer Horwitz is 28th best on this list all time, and counting. Here is THE GRAVEYARD (2 WAR or less, career). 

 

Jake Bauers

Andrew Vaughn

Matt Thaiss

Alex Dickerson

Daniel Vogelbach

Dominic Smith

Dustin Harris

Darin Ruf

Kyle Manzardo

Ronald Guzmán

Greg Bird

Blaze Jordan

Rowdy Tellez

Pavin Smith

Juan Yepez

Lewin Díaz

Chris Parmelee

Brendan McKay

Aaron Sabato

Bobby Bradley

Lars Anderson

Abimelec Ortiz

Niko Kavadas

Evan White

Luken Baker

Neftali Soto

Seth Beer

Jordan Diaz

Tyler Nevin

Sam Travis

Jon Singleton

Tyler Locklear

AJ Reed

Michael Toglia

Chris Marrero

Nick Pratto

Kyle Parker

Matt Mervis

Casey Gillaspie

Grant Lavigne

Haydn McGeary

Hunter Morris

Ivan Melendez

Keon Barnum

Mason Martin

Nathan Martorella

Xavier Isaac

[Laika]

btw I looked at some other positions as well

Shortstop the median is 7.7 WAR
Second base was worse than first base! 0.7 median career WAR, and only 12 players with 10+ career WAR. 

There is no such thing as a first base or second base prospect.

Many of the 2B and 1B in MLB are just guys who fell down the spectrum from SS or 3B or LF or C. 

Catcher was surprisingly bad, somewhat surprising but I guess it makes sense since it is more of a feast or famine position and it's so hard. The median career WAR was just under 2. 

[bluejaysinternNo5]

To really put the cherry top of the analysis you would do it for all positions, then rank the positions in terms of median war by position prospects.

[Terminator]

Could Keys technically be a 3B prospect? Do 3B prospects fare any better when switching over to 1B? 

[Laika]

[glory]

Ross Atkins walking into those trade discussions: