Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2026)

[Olerud363.354]

14 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Your memory is a bit off... Jays havent had Pulasi since the early 2000s.   

GCL Jays was Rookie, Bluefield was advanced Rookie, Lansing was A, Dunedin was Advanced A, Vancouver was short season A. 

Yeah.  Vlad played in Blue Field.  Bo in the GCL (Gulf Coast League).

Travis Snider played in Pulaski, but that (2006) looks like it was the last year. 

Before contraction they had basically three short seasons.  NY Penn for example.  Appalachian League, and Gulf Coast League. 

So the players that just got drafted could get really spread out.  

[keggy]

16 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

A sprain is a tear it just depends on what grade, sounds to me like they think it's a full ACL tear man, did you only read the first sentence of the tweet?

More doctors are reviewing the MRI now to see if there’s a full tear for the final diagnosis. Schneider says the #BlueJays are “holding onto” hope he can pitch again this year, but will miss significant time regardless.

The actual doctors' diagnosis override whatever we're discussing here, but the signs aren't good as you say. The fact that Vlad asked for the golf cart immediately suggests to me that either him or Ponce heard a pop.

If he has a full rupture there's a good chance they already know from the physical exam and MRI. Getting multiple opinions may be to discuss the best approach to repair surgically.

From the team perspective it's best to assume he's smoked for the year, with a best case scenario of bringing him out of the pen for a playoff run.

[Governator]

Man I just can't believe we lost him in Game 1 for the year. At least Josh Johnson got us like 3 starts before blowing something.

[Laika]

In hindsight, should have never signed a big awkward Alek Manoah kind of body 

They just don't last on turf! 

[Laika]

15 minutes ago, keggy said:

The actual doctors' diagnosis override whatever we're discussing here, but the signs aren't good as you say. The fact that Vlad asked for the golf cart immediately suggests to me that either him or Ponce heard a pop.

If he has a full rupture there's a good chance they already know from the physical exam and MRI. Getting multiple opinions may be to discuss the best approach to repair surgically.

From the team perspective it's best to assume he's smoked for the year, with a best case scenario of bringing him out of the pen for a playoff run.

My assumption from watching it was that it was some kind of full tear or rupture. Ligament or maybe hamstring. 

If the team isn't IMMEDIATELY confirming that it is a full tear, I find that mildly hopeful, but the best case scenario is probably still a partial tear and four+ months out of action. Still seems like a 95% chance it's just a full tear though. 

[Laika]

I was tarred and feathered for saying "regular season Vlad is back!" after his TOOTBLAN but it's true 

He has a 171 wRC+ but it's hilariously all groundball singles 

His xwOBA is .281. Zero barrels. Pulling nothing in the air. Hitting almost everything on the ground. Not even hitting enough hard ground balls. 

And this is against some real nincompoop pitchers. 

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Dread it. Run from it. Regular season Vlad arrives all the same.

[Orgfiller]

STOP THE COUNT

[Orgfiller]

Bo Bichette is 26/27 btw ^

[Laika]

17 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

Bo Bichette is 26/27 btw ^

Bo is the worst player in baseball so far 

bleeding runs on defense, somehow he has negative BsR despite almost never being on base 

Kaz is already +0.8 fWAR on Bo wow

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Yeah.  Vlad played in Blue Field.  Bo in the GCL (Gulf Coast League).

Travis Snider played in Pulaski, but that (2006) looks like it was the last year. 

Before contraction they had basically three short seasons.  NY Penn for example.  Appalachian League, and Gulf Coast League. 

So the players that just got drafted could get really spread out.  

Auburn hadn't been with the Jays since 2010, basically Vancouver replaced them at the time as the SS A affiliate, but they changed that up pretty soon since some players coming out of college and international settings couldnt play there due to visa issues. 

But yes, the NY Penn league was still around for other teams to use. 

 

[Laika]

Blue Jays Stuff+ Trends

Player	2025 Stuff+	2026 Stuff+	Difference
Nance	108	122	14
Fluharty	107	120	13
Hoffman	108	121	13
Scherzer	93	103	10
Gausman	102	109	7
Varland	109	115	6
Rogers	137	140	3
Cease	108	110	2
Lauer	94	91	-3
Little	109	105	-4
Fisher	112	99	-13
TEAM	99	105	6

Very promising across the board. Fisher is down 1 mph but he is mostly breaking balls, so probably just has not found his shapes quite yet. 

The team sample also includes the innings from Heineman, lol. His 10 Stuff+. 

This moves Toronto from MLB rank 21 to MLB rank 12. 

However, the absolute effect of this is overstated as it looks like Stuff+ needs to adjust its mean to 2026. The mean team Stuff+ appears to be about 103 right now. Should be 100. 

Part of this might be the roof being closed for every game... Toronto pitchers benefitting from that home environment and climate control. Maybe that is all of it? Stuff+ doesn't have team level home/away splits

[mphenhef]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Blue Jays Stuff+ Trends

Player	2025 Stuff+	2026 Stuff+	Difference
Nance	108	122	14
Fluharty	107	120	13
Hoffman	108	121	13
Scherzer	93	103	10
Gausman	102	109	7
Varland	109	115	6
Rogers	137	140	3
Cease	108	110	2
Lauer	94	91	-3
Little	109	105	-4
Fisher	112	99	-13
TEAM	99	105	6

Very promising across the board. Fisher is down 1 mph but he is mostly breaking balls, so probably just has not found his shapes quite yet. 

The team sample also includes the innings from Heineman, lol. His 10 Stuff+. 

This moves Toronto from MLB rank 21 to MLB rank 12. 

However, the absolute effect of this is overstated as it looks like Stuff+ needs to adjust its mean to 2026. The mean team Stuff+ appears to be about 103 right now. Should be 100. 

Part of this might be the roof being closed for every game... Toronto pitchers benefitting from that home environment and climate control. Maybe that is all of it? Stuff+ doesn't have team level home/away splits

How big of a sample does Stuff+ need for a reliable measure?  Does it have enough yet?  Paging @sliderguy35

[Laika]

2 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

How big of a sample does Stuff+ need for a reliable measure?  Does it have enough yet?  Paging @sliderguy35

Something like 80 pitches 

But since these are all "roof closed" pitches I would also wait until there is a road sample 

[Stangstag]

3 hours ago, Governator said:

Man I just can't believe we lost him in Game 1 for the year. At least Josh Johnson got us like 3 starts before blowing something.

He was only under contract for 1 year though. Ponce still has a spot on this team next year

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

I was tarred and feathered for saying "regular season Vlad is back!" after his TOOTBLAN but it's true 

He has a 171 wRC+ but it's hilariously all groundball singles 

His xwOBA is .281. Zero barrels. Pulling nothing in the air. Hitting almost everything on the ground. Not even hitting enough hard ground balls. 

And this is against some real nincompoop pitchers. 

I did not like what I saw from him in batting practice before the game the other day. Everything was oppo line drives. 

Pull the fking ball Vlad, jesus

[The_DH]

I was watching Okamoto yesterday and the one time he asked for a review, it kind of proved it, he doesn't see the strike zone.

[Brownie19]

1 minute ago, The_DH said:

I was watching Okamoto yesterday and the one time he asked for a review, it kind of proved it, he doesn't see the strike zone.

What a bizarre statement.

[The_DH]

How is that bizarre?  Okamoto is striking out a ton.  There's two general reasons for strikeouts: 1. he can't catch up with the pitches or 2 he doesn't know where the strike zone is.

[Stangstag]

6 minutes ago, The_DH said:

How is that bizarre?  Okamoto is striking out a ton.  There's two general reasons for strikeouts: 1. he can't catch up with the pitches or 2 he doesn't know where the strike zone is.

Or he’s guessing wrong, or the timing is off, or he’s pressing with the bases loaded. There are many things that could be going through his mind.
 

He seems to have pretty good plate discipline overall.

[Brownie19]

22 minutes ago, The_DH said:

How is that bizarre?  Okamoto is striking out a ton.  There's two general reasons for strikeouts: 1. he can't catch up with the pitches or 2 he doesn't know where the strike zone is.

He literally walked as often as he struck out last year and hasn't had a K% over 18.8 in the past 6 years.  

Claiming he doesn't see the strike zone and citing 1 ABS challenge as "proof" that your observation is correct, 5 games into the season, is dumb.  Sorry.

[G-Snarls]

Can we envision a 3-4 WAR Okamoto??

[The_DH]

Actually I'm referring to all his strikeouts this season.  He's got a lot, about 50% of the at bats.  Commenting on how he did against the Japanese leagues is not an accurate reflection.  

[mphenhef]

20 minutes ago, The_DH said:

Actually I'm referring to all his strikeouts this season.  He's got a lot, about 50% of the at bats.  Commenting on how he did against the Japanese leagues is not an accurate reflection.  

Commenting on how he has done in less than a week of at bats is not an accurate reflection either.

[mphenhef]

On 3/25/2026 at 3:27 PM, Governator said:

What are your guys thoughts on the BP?

I feel like we're going to wish we had Domínguez back with Garcia out.

It's a concern.  I was too confident in it pre-season apparently.

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, The_DH said:

Actually I'm referring to all his strikeouts this season.  He's got a lot, about 50% of the at bats.  Commenting on how he did against the Japanese leagues is not an accurate reflection.  

But like, most of those are swinging strikeouts on pitches in the zone? So im not sure how this supports your claim that he “doesn’t see the zone”

He’s just missing some pitches 

[G-Snarls]

Hoffman continues his dominance.  53.8% K rate (edit: not even sure that includes his 3K inning today).  And he hasn't walked a single batter yet. 

Edit: TY Orgiller - K rate after today's game: 62.5%.

 

[G-Snarls]

Unfortunately, half of the rest of the bullpen is sus

[Orgfiller]

27 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

Hoffman continues his dominance.  53.8% K rate (edit: not even sure that includes his 3K inning today).  And he hasn't walked a single batter yet. 

 

He now has 10 strikeouts on 16 batters faced so the K-rate is now 62.5%. He also unsurprisingly has a negative xFIP.

[G-Snarls]

3 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

He now has 10 strikeouts on 16 batters faced so the K-rate is now 62.5%. He also unsurprisingly has a negative xFIP.

He has been GREAT