Blue Jays Are Pursuing Free Agent Third Baseman Alex Bregman

[Spanky__99]

5 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

I'd love to see Springer finish his career in Toronto on a bunch of 1 year deals ala David Ortiz. 

You probably have to move Santander to make that happen though...

If they both rake next year, it'd be a good problem to have... I love Springer, everything about him, he's a gamer, great talent, great attitude, just so much fun.

 

[Governator]

I would really lower my expectations on Springer next season. I mean it'd be amazing if he continues with another career best BABIP and do everything he did but my gut tells me it was an outlier at this point in his career.  

[Hipfan]

1 minute ago, Governator said:

I would really lower my expectations on Springer next season. I mean it'd be amazing if he continues with another career best BABIP and do everything he did but my gut tells me it was an outlier at this point in his career.  

I don't think we can expect another .950 OPS season out of him, but can he be an .800 OPS player? I hope so. If Vlad, Santander, and perhaps Barger play up to their standards/talent levels, we could see a drop in Springer's production be offset pretty easily.

[jaysblue]

28 minutes ago, Governator said:

I would really lower my expectations on Springer next season. I mean it'd be amazing if he continues with another career best BABIP and do everything he did but my gut tells me it was an outlier at this point in his career.  

I would take a 2022 version of Springer in a heartbeat for 2026. Add in a hot Postseason on top of that, icing on the cake! 

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Governator said:

I would really lower my expectations on Springer next season. I mean it'd be amazing if he continues with another career best BABIP and do everything he did but my gut tells me it was an outlier at this point in his career.  

Nothing about Springer's season was a fluke. He fully earned his results as evidenced by a .408/.404 wOBA/xwOBA split. I don't expect him to necessarily fully recreate his 2025 season but I do expect the adjustments that he made are going to be something that sticks with a normal age regression curve moving forward.

[Jays24]

Gonna be a contract year for Georgie next season so I wouldnt pitch it past him to be close to what we saw this past season 

[John_Havok]

23 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Gonna be a contract year for Georgie next season so I wouldnt pitch it past him to be close to what we saw this past season 

I'd be okay with some kind of creative extension like they had with a manager a while back. 

To make it work, they have to sign him to a 1 year team option contract for 2027 as an extension now. Then, each year he has an automatic team option tacked on for X dollars or X buyout, so the first one would be for 2028. The catch is, the team option has to be accepted for 2028 at the end of 2026, not the end of 2027. 

Its riskier for the Jays because they get 1 extra year of suckage built in to the end, but it pretty much guarantees Springer stays as long as the Jays want him to and if he ages like Papi did, they get their DH for the foreseeable future without issue. Springer, if hes truly taken by the city and playing for the Jays, gets a good deal for him too with minimum 2 year certainty at the end of every season.

[Jays24]

37 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

I'd be okay with some kind of creative extension like they had with a manager a while back. 

To make it work, they have to sign him to a 1 year team option contract for 2027 as an extension now. Then, each year he has an automatic team option tacked on for X dollars or X buyout, so the first one would be for 2028. The catch is, the team option has to be accepted for 2028 at the end of 2026, not the end of 2027. 

Its riskier for the Jays because they get 1 extra year of suckage built in to the end, but it pretty much guarantees Springer stays as long as the Jays want him to and if he ages like Papi did, they get their DH for the foreseeable future without issue. Springer, if hes truly taken by the city and playing for the Jays, gets a good deal for him too with minimum 2 year certainty at the end of every season.

You gotta let him play it out.  Santandar is supposed to take over the DH spot so unless Springer has anything close to last year, we might have to let him walk as much as that sucks.

[sliderguy35]

2 hours ago, max silver said:

Nothing about Springer's season was a fluke. He fully earned his results as evidenced by a .408/.404 wOBA/xwOBA split. I don't expect him to necessarily fully recreate his 2025 season but I do expect the adjustments that he made are going to be something that sticks with a normal age regression curve moving forward.

george looked like he was on a downward trend when it came to hitting the ball on the ground (an 18% increase from 2021 to 2024) up until this year when he reduced his groundball rate by almost 14%. i was curious to see if something similar had been done before and if the GB rate stayed lower. I looked at the recent history of older players (age 30+) who've had a significant 1 season reduction in their groundball rate.

Players in the last 5 years, aged 30+ with over a 10% reduction in GB rate vs their next season (min 250 PAs):

Masataka Yoshida: 2024 - 116 wRC+, 42.7% GB rate (12% reduction) | 2025 - 88 wRC+, 54.9% GB rate

Kyle Higashioka: 2024 - 104 wRC+, 28.1% GB rate (11% reduction) | 2025 - 93 wRC+, 35.3% GB rate

Connor Joe: 2023 - 106 wRC+, 36.1% GB rate (10% reduction) | 2024 - 93 wRC+, 42.9% GB rate

Randal Grichuk : 2023 - 101 wRC+, 40.9% GB rate (10% reduction) | 2024 - 139 wRC+, 36.7% GB rate

David Peralta: 2022 - 104 wRC+, 36.3% GB rate (18% reduction) | 2024 - 80 wRC+, 48.3% GB rate

good for handsome randal (although he was essentially a short-side platoon guy in 2024), but otherwise it looks like there's usually a pretty significant bounceback in terms of their groundball rate and subsequent reduction in their wRC+. 

that being said, none of these guys had posted anything close to a 166 wRC+ season, so there really isn't a good precedent, & nobody's improved their wRC+ season-to-season by over 70 points since 2018 mookie betts (springer improved by 72). 

my gut tells me this is going to end up in a 2022 paul goldschmidt situation, where he ends up in the 110-120 wRC+ area. a nice player to have but not one that'll carry the offense like he did last year

[Pendleton]

 

[Terminator]

1 hour ago, Pendleton said:

 

I love this guy already

[Omar]

2 hours ago, Pendleton said:

 

Jays play the chisox first week of the season.  I think he goes yard on Cease.

[Stangstag]

10 hours ago, Governator said:

I would really lower my expectations on Springer next season. I mean it'd be amazing if he continues with another career best BABIP and do everything he did but my gut tells me it was an outlier at this point in his career.  

Yes, there’s a very real possibility Santander is taking at bats away from Springer next year. Would not be shocked if that was the last we see of GOOD George 

[glory]

I think a 120-ish wRC+ (give or take) for Springer in 2026 is pretty reasonable, and wouldn't be a bad outcome for the Jays. There's no way he's coming close to 166 again. If Santander has a bounce back season then that should help mitigate some of Springer's decline.

[max silver]

22 hours ago, Stangstag said:

Yes, there’s a very real possibility Santander is taking at bats away from Springer next year. Would not be shocked if that was the last we see of GOOD George 

I seem to be in the minority but I believe George is going to continue to mash next season. He checks all of the boxes for continued production at least in the short term, as he has elite plate discipline, keeps the strikeouts under control, has a swing plane designed for elevating the ball, added several MPH average to his swing speed compared to the previous season, the expected stats directly line up with the results etc. I certainly don't expect him to exceed 160 wRC+ again as he's 36 years old but I see nothing that indicates this was a single season fluke.

[hanton]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

I seem to be in the minority but I believe George is going to continue to mash next season. He checks all of the boxes for continued production at least in the short term, as he has elite plate discipline, keeps the strikeouts under control, has a swing plane designed for elevating the ball, added several MPH average to his swing speed compared to the previous season, the expected stats directly line up with the results etc. I certainly don't expect him to exceed 160 wRC+ again as he's 36 years old but I see nothing that indicates this was a single season fluke.

Right on.  It's not a fluke, look at the jump in Ideal Attack Angle %.  Popkins.

[Brownie19]

3 hours ago, max silver said:

I seem to be in the minority but I believe George is going to continue to mash next season. He checks all of the boxes for continued production at least in the short term, as he has elite plate discipline, keeps the strikeouts under control, has a swing plane designed for elevating the ball, added several MPH average to his swing speed compared to the previous season, the expected stats directly line up with the results etc. I certainly don't expect him to exceed 160 wRC+ again as he's 36 years old but I see nothing that indicates this was a single season fluke.

I certainly hope you're right!  He's the epitome of a ball player.  I really hope good things happen to him. 

[Joltin Joe]

Get him on a shorter term deal than Bo

[Spanky__99]

On 12/25/2025 at 7:58 PM, Joltin Joe said:

Get him on a shorter term deal than Bo

Well, Bo's 4 years younger Doltin' Joe? lol

[gruber9292]

On 12/24/2025 at 7:54 PM, max silver said:

I seem to be in the minority but I believe George is going to continue to mash next season. He checks all of the boxes for continued production at least in the short term, as he has elite plate discipline, keeps the strikeouts under control, has a swing plane designed for elevating the ball, added several MPH average to his swing speed compared to the previous season, the expected stats directly line up with the results etc. I certainly don't expect him to exceed 160 wRC+ again as he's 36 years old but I see nothing that indicates this was a single season fluke.

I agree.. Let's see if the key factor of keeping him off his feet for the most part of the season will keep him fresh enough in having another good year, even at 36 he's in great shape. 

[JaysForever]

17 hours ago, gruber9292 said:

I agree.. Let's see if the key factor of keeping him off his feet for the most part of the season will keep him fresh enough in having another good year, even at 36 he's in great shape. 

If he strictly plays DH and gets rested on a regular basis, I do not see his hitting dropping off drastically.

Santander and whoever is nursing slight injury can take some games at DH throughout the year.

 

[Joltin Joe]

On 12/27/2025 at 9:42 PM, Spanky__99 said:

Well, Bo's 4 years younger Doltin' Joe? lol

Yes he is. But I don't trust Bo's injury history. 

[John_Havok]

10 hours ago, Joltin Joe said:

Yes he is. But I don't trust Bo's injury history. 

Games played 2021 - 2025

Bo - 673

Bregman - 666

Seems like their recent injury history's are  nearly identical. 

[Jays24]

24 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Games played 2021 - 2025

Bo - 673

Bregman - 666

Seems like their recent injury history's are  nearly identical. 

Only thing I would say to this is that Bo is trending in the wrong direction with his knees/calf.  Recency bias matters.

[John_Havok]

11 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Only thing I would say to this is that Bo is trending in the wrong direction with his knees/calf.  Recency bias matters.

Bregman's quad issues from 2021 resurfaced in 2025.  Recency issues are still similar. 

Neither can run well anymore. 

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Bregman's quad issues from 2021 resurfaced in 2025.  Recency issues are still similar. 

Neither can run well anymore. 

Either way, i think both guys are a longshot now with Okamoto in the fold.

Would expect the front office to go harder after Bellinger/Tucker

[G-Snarls]

12 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Either way, i think both guys are a longshot now with Okamoto in the fold.

Would expect the front office to go harder after Bellinger/Tucker

Well yeah they're not after Bregman anymore 

Bichette and Tucker def yes 

 

[Laika]

Tucker in the OF forces some sort of Barger/Santander time share

Bo at 2B forces a Clement/Gimenez platoon of sorts 

Remarkably similar results 

I still think a trade happens at the end of the off-season 

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

Tucker in the OF forces some sort of Barger/Santander time share

Bo at 2B forces a Clement/Gimenez platoon of sorts 

Remarkably similar results 

I still think a trade happens at the end of the off-season 

Definitely some kinda trade for pitching coming

[Spanky__99]

20 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Only thing I would say to this is that Bo is trending in the wrong direction with his knees/calf.  Recency bias matters.

Bregman's 4 years older dude.