Offseason Roster Thread 2025-26

[max silver]

3 minutes ago, L54 said:

I’m pretty sure they’re going to sign Tucker

I believe this is the most likely course of action as well. I think both sides are playing a game of free agency chicken waiting for the other party to blink.

[Olerud363.354]

18 hours ago, Stangstag said:

The 0-4 stat is a tad disingenuous, as Gausman pitched well in every start. We just didn’t score those games.

I did not mean to imply that Gaussman pitched badly at all.  I just meant to say it was amazing the Jays got as far as they did, given they went 0-4 in their 'ace' starts 

ALCS/WS (by starter)

Gaussman 0-4

Yesevage 3-1

Bieber 3-0

Scherzer 1-2

Overall 7-7

You have to wonder really what was going on with Bieber that he couldn't pitch game 3 and 7 of the WS then took the qualifying offer.  Gotta appreciate him giving us what he did under whatever circumstances he was facing (which we still don't quite know). 

[Laika]

The one thing that makes me think Toronto might be done is that the Okamoto signing took them neatly just past the final tax threshold. 

I think it's a 60% tax on every dollar spent past $304 million, and the Jays are just beyond that now. 

Signing Tucker for $35M and then paying a 60% tax for all of that is pretty thirsty 

[Jays24]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

The one thing that makes me think Toronto might be done is that the Okamoto signing took them neatly just past the final tax threshold. 

I think it's a 60% tax on every dollar spent past $304 million, and the Jays are just beyond that now. 

Signing Tucker for $35M and then paying a 60% tax for all of that is pretty thirsty 

It'll be a massive tax bill for 1 year.  We got a bunch of guys expiring next year who I think we'll only replace with value deals.  

[Laika]

10 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

It'll be a massive tax bill for 1 year.  We got a bunch of guys expiring next year who I think we'll only replace with value deals.  

George $24m
Goose $23m
Biebs $16m
Varsho $10.75m
Lauer $5m 
Straw $7.4m
Yimi $7.5m

Ideally Santander bounces back and looks like a decent DH candidate from 2027 on and Cease/Yesavage are entrenched as the SP1 and SP2 so there is no pressure to replace Gausman and Bieber with frontline SP 
Impossible to cheaply replace Varsho though

And I will be sad boy if Springer has a full Nelson Cruz arm until 40 and some of it happens in a different uniform 

[glory]

31 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

It'll be a massive tax bill for 1 year.  We got a bunch of guys expiring next year who I think we'll only replace with value deals.  

Gausman, Bieber, Varsho, and Springer are kinda important, though. Whatever cost savings exist will have to be used to replace them or bring them back. I know logic suggests moving Santander to DH in 2027, but without Tucker, that leaves the OF as Barger and whatever Buffalo Boys are still on the roster by that point. The rotation will be losing 2 pieces plus a depth SP (Lauer). They'll have to spend next season regardless. 

If I'm the Jays, then I probably pay the massive tax bill in 2026 (sign Tucker) and see what happens. They are already over $300M and there's going to be a lockout, so who knows what 2027-beyond even looks like. If it's just the same CBA with stiffer penalties (which is what I think it will be) then they can scale back and try to make some trades rather than sign free agents.

The Tucker contract will probably stink in terms of length (10 years for a 29 year old corner OF will age like milk) but if you want to go all in during what could be the peak of this competitive window, then this is the chance to do it. 

[Laika]

ZiPS

[Governator]

At this point I don't care if we get Tucker or Bo but please sign one of 'em quick so I can stop refreshing.

[itaos]

2027 OF Free Agents

I am good with a Tucker overpay

[Terminator]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

ZiPS

Tucker seemingly moves the needle a lot more than Bo does.

Projects a little better but he also supplants a 2 WAR player instead of a 3 WAR player.

[Jays24]

1 hour ago, Governator said:

At this point I don't care if we get Tucker or Bo but please sign one of 'em quick so I can stop refreshing.

I just got a f***ing notification for Eloy Jimenez.  Saw the start and thought it was major news.  Please end my refreshing misery so we can focus on what the team will be exactly heading into the season lol

[G-Snarls]

8 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

I just got a f***ing notification for Eloy Jimenez.  Saw the start and thought it was major news.  Please end my refreshing misery so we can focus on what the team will be exactly heading into the season lol

Yeah same; at this point I just want to know if we're keeping Bo, adding Tucker, or neither. Then let's get the season going. Team looks good no matter what. 

[glory]

23 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Tucker seemingly moves the needle a lot more than Bo does.

Projects a little better but he also supplants a 2 WAR player instead of a 3 WAR player.

Yeah if Clement is a 3 WAR 2B, then Tucker is by far the biggest difference making add. We all assume Santander is bouncing back, but even at his best he was a 2.5 WAR one trick pony, and now he's coming off a shoulder injury, so hard to say what to reasonably expect next season. Tucker isn't a perfect fit for the way the roster is currently constructed but they can work around that if he's adding a 4-5 WAR.

Would suck for Davis Schneider to be sent down (he has options) but probably makes more sense in a Tucker scenario to have Jimenez on the bench than DS. Infield depth isn't great. Santander (assuming he's not traded) would effectively play DS's role off the bench (platoon with Barger) except the manager would actually use him in RF and DH as well, whereas the Jays don't seem to want to use DS anywhere other than LF and against LHP/specific matchups. A bench of Santander-Jimenez-Straw with DS in AAA in case of need (or traded) wouldn't be a terrible outcome.

[Spanky__99]

4 hours ago, Laika said:

The one thing that makes me think Toronto might be done is that the Okamoto signing took them neatly just past the final tax threshold. 

I think it's a 60% tax on every dollar spent past $304 million, and the Jays are just beyond that now. 

Signing Tucker for $35M and then paying a 60% tax for all of that is pretty thirsty 

Yeah okay, Shi...

[Jimcanuck]

3 hours ago, glory said:

Yeah if Clement is a 3 WAR 2B, then Tucker is by far the biggest difference making add. We all assume Santander is bouncing back, but even at his best he was a 2.5 WAR one trick pony, and now he's coming off a shoulder injury, so hard to say what to reasonably expect next season. Tucker isn't a perfect fit for the way the roster is currently constructed but they can work around that if he's adding a 4-5 WAR.

Would suck for Davis Schneider to be sent down (he has options) but probably makes more sense in a Tucker scenario to have Jimenez on the bench than DS. Infield depth isn't great. Santander (assuming he's not traded) would effectively play DS's role off the bench (platoon with Barger) except the manager would actually use him in RF and DH as well, whereas the Jays don't seem to want to use DS anywhere other than LF and against LHP/specific matchups. A bench of Santander-Jimenez-Straw with DS in AAA in case of need (or traded) wouldn't be a terrible outcome.

Gotta figure if Bo or Tucker get signed, someone is getting moved for a pen upgrade.

[justafan]

53 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

Gotta figure if Bo or Tucker get signed, someone is getting moved for a pen upgrade.

 

[justafan]

Just now, justafan said:

What if they don't sign either, get the draft pick and buy at the deadline?

 

 

[Nexii]

4 hours ago, Terminator said:

Tucker seemingly moves the needle a lot more than Bo does.

Projects a little better but he also supplants a 2 WAR player instead of a 3 WAR player.

I feel like upgrading the pen might be the best value. 3.9 WAR isn't exactly great. 

 

[RobinThicc]

Give Tucker his 350 mill and call it a day

[Jays24]

1 hour ago, RobinThicc said:

Give Tucker his 350 mill and call it a day

He'll take his 300/8 with some of it deferred and like it lol

[jaysthebest]

I think Tucker would sign with the Mets. If we were going to sign him, we would've signed him a month ago.

[L54]

The next two FA classes lack any sort of hitter resembling Tucker or even Bichette for that matter 

Jays have a clear outfield need in 27 and beyond 

I would be disappointed if Okamoto was the only bat brought in to replace Bo. Rogers is flush with liquid cash and paying 20M in tax for Tucker should be looked at as a privilege! 

[Jays24]

1 hour ago, L54 said:

The next two FA classes lack any sort of hitter resembling Tucker or even Bichette for that matter 

Jays have a clear outfield need in 27 and beyond 

I would be disappointed if Okamoto was the only bat brought in to replace Bo. Rogers is flush with liquid cash and paying 20M in tax for Tucker should be looked at as a privilege! 

Getting one of Bo or Tucker is a must.  We made some good signings around the edges with Okamoto/Ponce.  The meat of the signings came with Cease from the pitching side and now has to be one of Tucker or Bo from the hitting side. 

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Getting one of Bo or Tucker is a must.  We made some good signings around the edges with Okamoto/Ponce.  The meat of the signings came with Cease from the pitching side and now has to be one of Tucker or Bo from the hitting side. 

It isn't a "must".  Remember there was someone constantly insisting we needed 2 power bats last offseason and it turns out we didn't need either of them.

Perhaps what you actually mean is "landing Bo or Tucker would be the icing on top" or "I'm a bit worried our offense might come up short without Bo, Tucker or another trade".

Please confirm you're not going to freak out and rip Atkins if we don't sign Bo or Tucker...

[Jays24]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

It isn't a "must".  Remember there was someone constantly insisting we needed 2 power bats last offseason and it turns out we didn't need either of them.

Perhaps what you actually mean is "landing Bo or Tucker would be the icing on top" or "I'm a bit worried our offense might come up short without Bo, Tucker or another trade".

Please confirm you're not going to freak out and rip Atkins if we don't sign Bo or Tucker...

Our offense would be worse if we lose Bo and only replace him with Okamoto.  I hope you can acknowledge losing the best hitter in baseball hurts the team overall.  Thats all im saying.  Obviously im ecstatic for the current state of the team to be able to support a 300M+ payroll.  

[Eat My Shatkins]

Signing anyone else right now is a luxury, not a "must".

Don't get me wrong, I hope it happens but the team is great on paper as is.

[Jays24]

Report: Mets offer Tucker $50M per year on short-term deal

https://thescore.com/mlb/news/3454621

[Terminator]

If we don't get Tucker or Bo we could always go the trade route too. Though trades are a lot harder to come up with since we don't know who is actually available or not. 

[Jays24]

12 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Signing anyone else right now is a luxury, not a "must".

Don't get me wrong, I hope it happens but the team is great on paper as is.

Signing Ponce as your 6th starter and Okamoto as utility/platoon guy was a luxury... hope getting a player to slot into the top 4 of your lineup can be prioritized.  We will find out soon.  

[Orgfiller]

10 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Signing Ponce as your 6th starter and Okamoto as utility/platoon guy was a luxury... hope getting a player to slot into the top 4 of your lineup can be prioritized.  We will find out soon.  

Ponce was not signed to be a 6th starter and Okamoto was not signed to be a platoon guy. Both these guys will be mainstays in the rotation and lineup respectively. If you think Okamoto was signed to be a low stakes number 7-8 hitter I have some news for you. As one of the best hitters in the NPB and with the contract that he signed, he's expected to be a key contributor in the middle of the lineup.