Offseason Roster Thread 2025-26

[Eat My Shatkins]

Hopefully Bo returns. You'd basically be running the same offense and defense as last year, both of which were top 5 in MLB, arguably #1.

But then you've probably improved the rotation from bottom 3rd to top 3rd in MLB with Cease and full seasons of Bieber and Yesavage.

Even the bullpen could be improved over last year with full seasons of Varland, Yimi and then by adding a closer.

Gimme Bo and gimme a closer please. 95+ wins will be easy to make.

[Nexii]

Oops I should have just taken depth charts this is way better. So 3.5 WAR is like middle of the pack for bullpens (we were ~3.2 WAR this year, like 18th overall)

[Nexii]

Probably would take 2 higher end relievers to get us from 'average' bullpen to 'good'. Upgrading Berrios seems more expensive than that would be.

[Jimcanuck]

Geoff Pontes (BA writer) expects Tiedemann will be used in short outings next season.  If he can stay healthy, there's a good chance he's on the Jays as a shutdown reliever by mid July.

Don't be surprised if the Jays hold off on bullpen acquisitions until in season, if necessary.  Relievers are extremely volatile, anyway.

[BTS]

43 minutes ago, Laika said:

I think the 2026 luxury tax thresholds are:

$244M
$264M
$284M
$304M

Fangraphs says the Jays are already at $263M

$284M is where the bigger surcharges (45%) begin and draft pick penalties begin (you move back ten slots) 

So the Jays can spend another $20M, without moving any money away, assuming they want to avoid beginning the year in the draft pick penalty range. 

But when you are throwing around $210M on Dylan Cease and $500M on Vlad and so forth do you really care about your draft pick sliding back 10 slots? Or one year of a 45% or 60% surcharge on the luxury tax you pay? Maybe they just blow it out of the water this year. 

There is about $91M coming off the books after 2026 (Springer, Gausman, Varsho, Bieber, Lauer, Yimi, Straw). Some of that money doesn't necessarily need to be used again immediately. They obviously need a CF and will probably add at least one SP. But, a chance to let payroll trickle back down so they aren't above the upper thresholds with no way out of it for years on end.

The 2026 luxury tax number is at about 271M though (also on FG). A bit less wiggle room if they want to come in under 284

[Spanky__99]

45 minutes ago, Sorrow said:

I wonder if the Diamondbacks would take Berrios in a Marte trade.

say something like Marte for Berrios, Nimmala, Shreck, + +

They're shedding payroll, not a dance partner.

[Laika]

21 minutes ago, BTS said:

The 2026 luxury tax number is at about 271M though (also on FG). A bit less wiggle room if they want to come in under 284

okay so f*** 284 it's just a number

age is just a number and so is payroll 

[Spanky__99]

41 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Hopefully Bo returns. You'd basically be running the same offense and defense as last year, both of which were top 5 in MLB, arguably #1.

But then you've probably improved the rotation from bottom 3rd to top 3rd in MLB with Cease and full seasons of Bieber and Yesavage.

Even the bullpen could be improved over last year with full seasons of Varland, Yimi and then by adding a closer.

Gimme Bo and gimme a closer please. 95+ wins will be easy to make.

Preach, been saying this since the get go, the Bieber opt in, helped bigly. Now it really feels like the Jays will be pressing the final tax threshold, good times friendo! 

[Jimcanuck]

So Bo or Tucker on a back loaded deal.  Dump Santander somehow.

[Orgfiller]

1 minute ago, Jimcanuck said:

So Bo or Tucker on a back loaded deal.

Doesn't matter for luxury tax calculations. Only way to really get around it as it stands is to add extra years to soften the luxury AAV ala Padres style, or get the player to accept significant deferrals.

[John_Havok]

3 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

So Bo or Tucker on a back loaded deal.  Dump Santander somehow.

backloading doesn't matter for CBT purposes, but deferrals do.

Santander has deferrals and his CBT hit isn't prohibitive at all. Could he still be dumped if possible... sure. 

[Spanky__99]

7 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

So Bo or Tucker on a back loaded deal.  Dump Santander somehow.

Why would they dump Santander? On the former, they'd add term of deferrals as these fine fellas mentioned.

[Jimcanuck]

Actually back loaded deals do lower the AAV, as NPV calculations still apply.  Eg. The 2030 salary amount would be discounted to present value.  Same thing as deferrals.  Of course the further off the payment is due, the greater the discount.

[Spanky__99]

When is the rule 5 draft, at the end of the winter meetings in a couple weeks, right? 

Nevermind, I was right, we're about 10 days from steam to start on the hotstove.

[Jimcanuck]

4 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

Why would they dump Santander?

Reduce payroll, add some wiggle room for other acquisitions.  They could keep him, sure, but my spidey sense sees him as another Morales scenario.

[Spanky__99]

5 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

Reduce payroll, add some wiggle room for other acquisitions.  They could keep him, sure, but my spidey sense sees him as another Morales scenario.

It's possible, but I doubt it, dude played hurt all season, he gets a mulligan bro. Move Straw's near 8M if need be, lol. <--- That's f***ed up for a 5th OF'er. Some team could use Straw and he'd play a lot more.

[Jimcanuck]

7 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

It's possible, but I doubt it, dude played hurt all season, he gets a mulligan bro. Move Straw's near 8M if need be, lol. <--- That's f***ed up for a 5th OF'er.

Agree on Straw.  Loperfido can do that role.  If Bo or Tucker signed, seems Santander will take playing time away from guys just as good (when defense factored in).

Santander projected for 1 to 1.3 WAR as a full time role, with horrible defense.  Even with 30 HR, blech.

[glory]

I think Tony is going to bounce back next season (assuming he's healthy), but I think if Atkins could dump the contract right now he probably would. The fit doesn't seem as necessary as it did a year ago. With Springer thriving as the DH, it means Santander will play OF full time or close to it in 2026, and that's not ideal for a team that values defense as heavily as the Jays do. The contract with the deferrals is very reasonable though so it's not a contract that needs to be dumped. Gimenez having a ~$20M CBT hit is a much bigger albatross.

[Laika]

Gimenez had a .306 xwOBA last year vs a .269 wOBA

His projections are for a .304 wOBA, and 95 wRC+ 

That is honestly all he needs to do to keep the contract from being an albatross 

[Brownie19]

Gimenez's floor is likely 2 WAR if he plays a full season, so it's unfair to suggest his contract is an albatross.  Obviously we hope he rebounds and gives us surplus value, but even if he doesn't, he plays a pretty vital role on this team with his defense up the middle.

[glory]

Gimenez is a solid player (more palatable as a SS) but the contract still sucks. AAV hit of around $19-20M, and 4/86 left on the deal. If he's around a league average bat then it would help a lot but I'm not sure I'd be confident penciling that in. Hopefully with better health and some Popkins magic he can rebound next season.

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, Jimcanuck said:

So Bo or Tucker on a back loaded deal.  Dump Santander somehow.

Lol

[Laika]

Santander + Berrios to the Pirates for Skenes?

[Pendleton]

2 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

When is the rule 5 draft, at the end of the winter meetings in a couple weeks, right? 

Nevermind, I was right, we're about 10 days from steam to start on the hotstove.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-offseason-dates-rules-and-terms

 

Rule V draft is Dec 10th

[GoBlue41]

I still want Bo  AND  Tucker. Is that completely off the table or is my pipe dream still alive, dead or on life support?? :) 

[Laika]

18 minutes ago, GoBlue41 said:

I still want Bo  AND  Tucker. Is that completely off the table or is my pipe dream still alive, dead or on life support?? :) 

Nothing is off the table

[Eat My Shatkins]

Fangraphs has both Fairbanks and Seranthony at 2/$16. Seems light, but could really start to build a legit shut down pen by adding those two for even as high as $25 million AAV combined. 

 

Probably not really necessary though. I always say relievers are volatile and I don't want to see the Jays spend a ton of money there, but then every off season I look at the RP arms available and I want, want, want because it looks so good on paper.

CL - Fairbanks

SU8 - Hoffman

SU7 - Yimi

MR - Seranthony

MR - Varland

MR - Fluharty

MR - little

LR - Lauer

Fisher, Rodriguez, Nance, Bruihl, etc

I don't think we'd see many leads given up with that group.

 

It'll be interesting to see what the FO does with guys like Francis, Bastardo and Tiedemann. Bastardo has to be on the MLB roster or he gets returned, but apparently he didn't even pitch in the AFL I read somewhere. Francis is probably better being converted back to a reliever, but his historic stretch as a starter in 2024 was very tantalizing. Tiedemann will have very limited innings in 2026, but you want to see him starting in AAA at least for a bit, probably ends up an MLB reliever later in the season if he hasn't completely lost what he used to have.

 

 

[Eat My Shatkins]

52 minutes ago, GoBlue41 said:

I still want Bo  AND  Tucker. Is that completely off the table or is my pipe dream still alive, dead or on life support?? :) 

I'm still hoping they go ape s*** this off season too. They don't have to, team is already really good. But it sure would be fun to add Bo, Tucker and then stack the bullpen too. Go for broke with maximum luxury tax for one season.

[Nexii]

Yea relievers are volatile but if you strike a gem they can be like 2 WAR. Interesting that the best teams get 6-8 WAR out of their entire bullpen. I'd have assumed a lot more, when you consider like 1 superstar hitter gets that. 

[glory]

1 hour ago, GoBlue41 said:

I still want Bo  AND  Tucker. Is that completely off the table or is my pipe dream still alive, dead or on life support?? :) 

I'd say it's pretty unlikely, but who knows. It's unclear what Bo's market even is at this point. He's awful at SS and he's coming off a knee injury that may or may not even be healed yet. It's entirely feasible that he ends up taking a pillow contract to reestablish value next season if he doesn't get the 6-7-8 year deals that he was envisioning this winter. As far as Tucker, I think he gets a big contract, but I don't think his market is as robust as people think. Corner OF at age 29 with a very good, not elite, track record. Tough to say. If the Jays are willing to blow past $300M and just take whatever penalties that come with it this season, then it's definitely a possibility. I don't know how realistic that is though. I would imagine getting the biggest Boras client on the market (at least on the pitching side) to sign before December means the Jays are willing to spend big. That doesn't happen often. 

I get the sense that the reliever pickup is going to be Helsley. I'm basing that off nothing really, but I recall the Jays were linked to him at the deadline, and there was no real change to his Stuff+ or velo last season (just Hoffman-itis with HR's). I could definitely see the Jays banking on the HR rate normalizing.