[ALCS GM 5] Blue Jays (Gausman) vs Mariners (Miller): 10/17/25, 6:08pm

[John_Havok]

11 hours ago, Nexii said:

Down 2-0 is about 19% to advance

Down 3-2 is about 25% to advance

Assuming 50/50 which Seattle and Jays pretty much are

There were 3 scenarios possible.

Series over. Jays up 3-2. Jays down 3-2. 

Any outcome that wasn't "series over" is positive.

[glory]

The Jays forcing a Game 6 is actually a good scenario after being down 0-2 and losing both games at home. It’s just that losing Game 5 the way they did makes being down 3-2 feel worse than it probably should given how the series started. The sad part is the Jays could have still lost Game 5 even if they managed it differently (ex. Hoffman in the 8th). It’s just that they managed it in the worst possible way. 

The Little decision stunk but it is what it is. Have to move past it and win the next two.

 

[Rynodb1]

43 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

There havent been any late and close games for the Jays this post season really though...Pretty much every game has been a blowout one way or the other. 

You wouldnt pitch him when youre down 2 or 3... he got the save in the Yankees series in the 5-2 game. 

Are people advocating/suggesting he should have started the 8th inning a 2-2 game?

It was 2-1 to start the 8th but I hear what you're saying. 

[Rynodb1]

1 hour ago, Jonn said:

I can and I will.

I'm not sure if you intended for that response to be as funny as it was. 

[Stangstag]

52 minutes ago, glory said:

The Jays forcing a Game 6 is actually a good scenario after being down 0-2 and losing both games at home. It’s just that losing Game 5 the way they did makes being down 3-2 feel worse than it probably should given how the series started. The sad part is the Jays could have still lost Game 5 even if they managed it differently (ex. Hoffman in the 8th). It’s just that they managed it in the worst possible way. 

The Little decision stunk but it is what it is. Have to move past it and win the next two.

 

Yeah people acting like a 2-1 lead being an easy win if we don’t use Little are insane. 

Pretty damn good chance the Mariners at least tie the game by the 9th. We lost the game because of failure to execute on the offensive side combined with some bad bounces.

One of those classic games where the jays have 7 hits (5 of them doubles) and 2 walks yet only score 2 runs. We’ve seen it before this season.

Just gotta win the next game.

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, John_Havok said:

There havent been any late and close games for the Jays this post season really though...Pretty much every game has been a blowout one way or the other. 

You wouldnt pitch him when youre down 2 or 3... he got the save in the Yankees series in the 5-2 game. 

Are people advocating/suggesting he should have started the 8th inning a 2-2 game?

They actually did use Hoffman while down 3-1 in the 9th in game 1 of this series. And then again in the 8th of game 4. 

In the DS, he closed that last game for 4 outs, came in with bases loaded in the 8th and got out of it with a flyout. Gave up 1 run in the 9th, 2 doubles by Aaron Judge and Jasson D.

I wouldn’t say he’s looked “great”, but he kept the ball in the yard.

[Buster]

4 hours ago, Laika said:

Thought about it more and I'm not even mad at JS. I would even say he is being unfairly slammed by everyone.

Seranthony is just bad against LHB. Career trend. Hoffman was a disaster most of the year. Varland has been a HR machine and was already used in the game, effectively.

Little has the best Stuff+ of all the full season Jays RP. Best FIP and WAR of all Jays full season RP. 

Yes he walks tons of hitters but at the rates he does you'd really just expect two outs around one walk, before you can go to Hoffman.

You can quote his two month ERA or walk rate but that's stupid and those numbers are noisy. 

The rationale behind using him was sound enough for me.

And arguably the best alternative was Fisher, anyway. Not Hoffman or Seranthony. I know the sample is too small but check out Fisher's splits. 

There's a few diehards on here that are defending JS decision to use Little.  But to say that view is a minority would be an understatement.  The regular media are roasting him, the youtuber crowd are roasting him even harder.  Even the Jay's broadcasters can't toe the company line on this one and are roasting him.

It was a historically stupid decision.

[Angrioter]

On 10/18/2025 at 2:12 AM, G-Snarls said:

Blair and Barker s***ing all over John Schneider's bullpen usage tonight and rightfully so 

JS manager of the year. This dude destroy our illusions to W a ring with Little move. 

 

Today is series over. I don't want to know nothing about baseball. Game 5 was our chance to f*** off a team better than us. 

[Olerud363.354]

After a couple of night sleep just convinced there was no good move there other than perhaps keeping Gausmann in a couple more batters.

1.  Hoffman high homerun rate

2. Rodriquez bad against lefties and high walk rate.

3. Little best OPS against righties, low homerun rate, but very high walk rate and poor recent performance.

There was no Munoz to go to is the problem.  There was no prime Jordan Romano or Osuna to go to.  If you rate relievers on a simple 1 (lights out) 2 (good) and 3 (shaky but sometimes gets it done) system, Jays have all 3s.  Seattle has a 1 and two or three 2s.

Brayden Fischer is the only guy with the numbers of a 2... but most people seem to think that is fake (at least they don't get mad when he doesn't pitch leverage). 

[Laika]

5 hours ago, Buster said:

There's a few diehards on here that are defending JS decision to use Little.  But to say that view is a minority would be an understatement.  The regular media are roasting him, the youtuber crowd are roasting him even harder.  Even the Jay's broadcasters can't toe the company line on this one and are roasting him.

It was a historically stupid decision.

Hey, good thing the measurement of truth is not "what is the YouTube crowd saying" 

[jaysblue]

13 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

Did you just comp. the Jays payroll to the Dodgers? lmao...🤔😅

The Jays have been showing a willingness to spend big money over the past two offseason's when they were targeting Ohtani, Soto, Burnes, Fried, Bregman, Sasaki etc. If they landed one or two of those guys, wouldn't that also be considered "trying to buy a championship."

So what happens if they actually landed Ohtani for $700-800M two years ago? Likely would have also signed another big player or arm whether it was Burnes or Fried, along with resigning Guerrero to his $500M extension. No different than the Dodgers. 

Blue Jays payroll will never be as high as the Dodgers, but it's Top 5 currently. Add in an Ohtani or Soto, along with another big FA, the Jays are right close to the top, neck and neck. 

[Olerud363.354]

6 hours ago, Buster said:

It was a historically stupid decision.

Depends on what the more advanced information was saying. 

Based on season stats it was a justified decision.

Based on a split going back N appearances it was a bad decision, especially if you choose N (21 or something) to go back to the Dodgers game where little gave up 3 runs in 0 innings.

Season stats:  I'll repeat myself.  Correct choice is our own Munoz.  Or 2023 Jordan Romano.  Or a guy like Osuna who catches fire from A-ball.  None of those available.  Using season Stats Little may have been correct given other choices like failed medical homer-king Hoffman.

N last appearances stats:  Little was terrible using this metric, but need to know what the underlying 'stuff' metrics were saying about Hoffman, Little and Rodriquez.  Like Hoffman was throwing 94 with bad control 3 weeks ago.  Rodriquez has control problems too and bad against lefties.  Need to know what the sort of 'last 10 appearances' more advanced stuff has to say about these guys, and I guess health status too. 

 

[Olerud363.354]

1 hour ago, Angrioter said:

Today is series over. I don't want to know nothing about baseball. Game 5 was our chance to f*** off a team better than us. 

Very sad.  Big Mariner party in Toronto?  I hope not but Krakens came in wearing Mariners Jersey's and had victory.  Have they reserved party place for 1:00 in morning (after interviews and Big Papi send Jays to Cancoon).

Second big happy Mariners party in Toronto in 4 years??  Mariners happy.  Waving Fork thing.  Laughing Dancing. Blue Jays sad.

Seems tickets are cheapest I've seen for playoff game this year.  Jays fan base traumatized?  Too sad to see happy Mariners again?

 

[jaysblue]

10 hours ago, Laika said:

Thought about it more and I'm not even mad at JS. I would even say he is being unfairly slammed by everyone.

Seranthony is just bad against LHB. Career trend. Hoffman was a disaster most of the year. Varland has been a HR machine and was already used in the game, effectively.

Little has the best Stuff+ of all the full season Jays RP. Best FIP and WAR of all Jays full season RP. 

Yes he walks tons of hitters but at the rates he does you'd really just expect two outs around one walk, before you can go to Hoffman.

You can quote his two month ERA or walk rate but that's stupid and those numbers are noisy. 

The rationale behind using him was sound enough for me.

And arguably the best alternative was Fisher, anyway. Not Hoffman or Seranthony. I know the sample is too small but check out Fisher's splits. 

Flip flopper!

[jaysblue]

12 hours ago, neverbeenhere said:

Exactly, the other day, a famous sports commentator said the other day that, if I paraphrase, don't think that blue jays are a blue collar team like your Brewers, they are the 4th richest team in MLB behind, Mets, Dodgers and Yankees. 

In addition, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said the viewership for the ALDS between yankees and Blue jays was between 7-8 million per game, and he was very happy about that. 

I was proud to hear these actually. Isn't it great to hear that Blue jays are a big budget team in a big market in an affluent city of Toronto?

Blue Jays are a big budget team and as a fan you have to be thankful and excited that ownership has shown a willingness to spend big money over the last several years. It definitely beats the JP Ricciardi days or Beeston/AA days when it came to signing or trading for expensive contracts. 

If the Blue Jays signed one of Ohtani or Soto + another big name free agent like Fried or Burnes which they mostly likely would have, along with Vladdy's extension, they're right up there at the top with the Dodgers when it comes to payroll. 

[Big_Walleye]

2 hours ago, Angrioter said:

JS manager of the year. This dude destroy our illusions to W a ring with Little move. 

 

Today is series over. I don't want to know nothing about baseball. Game 5 was our chance to f*** off a team better than us. 

🖕

[Masterbather]

11 hours ago, Laika said:

Thought about it more and I'm not even mad at JS. I would even say he is being unfairly slammed by everyone.

Seranthony is just bad against LHB. Career trend. Hoffman was a disaster most of the year. Varland has been a HR machine and was already used in the game, effectively.

Little has the best Stuff+ of all the full season Jays RP. Best FIP and WAR of all Jays full season RP. 

Yes he walks tons of hitters but at the rates he does you'd really just expect two outs around one walk, before you can go to Hoffman.

You can quote his two month ERA or walk rate but that's stupid and those numbers are noisy. 

The rationale behind using him was sound enough for me.

And arguably the best alternative was Fisher, anyway. Not Hoffman or Seranthony. I know the sample is too small but check out Fisher's splits. 

What happened to Brendon Little had nothing to do with noise. Completely dishonest thing to say. Anybody with eyes and two brain cells can see what happened with Little, the league stopped swinging at that stupid spike curve two feet in front of home plate (which we all knew would eventually happen). Once they stopped doing that it greatly diminished him as a pitcher and he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball down the stretch. 

Anybody, literally anybody, was a better option than him. Every single number, every single statistic told Schneider not to bring him in.

Worst baseball decision I've ever seen, worse than pulling Blake Snell in the World Series even.  

 

[Big_Walleye]

1 hour ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Depends on what the more advanced information was saying. 

Based on season stats it was a justified decision.

Based on a split going back N appearances it was a bad decision, especially if you choose N (21 or something) to go back to the Dodgers game where little gave up 3 runs in 0 innings.

Season stats:  I'll repeat myself.  Correct choice is our own Munoz.  Or 2023 Jordan Romano.  Or a guy like Osuna who catches fire from A-ball.  None of those available.  Using season Stats Little may have been correct given other choices like failed medical homer-king Hoffman.

N last appearances stats:  Little was terrible using this metric, but need to know what the underlying 'stuff' metrics were saying about Hoffman, Little and Rodriquez.  Like Hoffman was throwing 94 with bad control 3 weeks ago.  Rodriquez has control problems too and bad against lefties.  Need to know what the sort of 'last 10 appearances' more advanced stuff has to say about these guys, and I guess health status too. 

 

If you squint hard enough or shrink sample sizes etc, you can nearly always find #'s that will end up on either side of a decision.

The deciding factor Friday night was that John Schneider trusts his guys. He has faith in the people that got the team to this point.  That's why players respond for him.  Is this team even in this position without Little taking the ball in nearly half the games this season?  And he made a lot of big league hitters look terrible along the way.

People were mad about the loss, I get it.  But when the reaction is to immediately come here and type "fire John Schneider" I tend to lose my mind.  Our own broadcasters don't even stop and think before opening their mouth and spewing garbage.  None of these people have access to the info that went into making this decision but they decide to be experts anyhow.  Several people on the Sportsnet broadcast owe John an apology and I'll be very disappointed if I don't hear exactly that to begin the broadcast today.

[Big_Walleye]

8 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

 

Anybody, literally anybody, was a better option than him. Every single number, every single statistic told Schneider not to bring him in.

 

Dead wrong!

[Olerud363.354]

6 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

Anybody, literally anybody, was a better option than him. Every single number, every single statistic told Schneider not to bring him in.

Not True.  Dominquez splits are horrible against lefties.  Hoffman is a homerun machine.

Even if you accept that the second half version of Little is the real version, even if guys lay-off the curve and walk a lot, they still weren't hitting for power off him.   Little's 'bad' second half splits were something like .200 .350 .350.  This is not good.  However Hoffman and Dominquez splits, 3 lefties in a row, were probably worse.   Like lefties hit .270 .370 .440   And that's Little's bad split, his season split is much better. 

[Masterbather]

3 minutes ago, Big_Walleye said:

If you squint hard enough or shrink sample sizes etc, you can nearly always find #'s that will end up on either side of a decision.

The deciding factor Friday night was that John Schneider trusts his guys. He has faith in the people that got the team to this point.  That's why players respond for him.  Is this team even in this position without Little taking the ball in nearly half the games this season?  And he made a lot of big league hitters look terrible along the way.

People were mad about the loss, I get it.  But when the reaction is to immediately come here and type "fire John Schneider" I tend to lose my mind.  Our own broadcasters don't even stop and think before opening their mouth and spewing garbage.  None of these people have access to the info that went into making this decision but they decide to be experts anyhow.  Several people on the Sportsnet broadcast owe John an apology and I'll be very disappointed if I don't hear exactly that to begin the broadcast today.

Good on the Sportsnet crew for calling out the worst managerial decision in Toronto Blue Jays history. It's not about being mad at the loss, everyone knew the moment Brendon Little started warming up a disaster was approaching. This isn't second-guessing, it's not hindsight. 

A low leverage pitcher was brought into one of the highest leverage situations of the season. Should have been fired yesterday. f***ing disaster of a decision.

[Olerud363.354]

1 minute ago, Big_Walleye said:

Dead wrong!

People aren't factoring that the other choices were also bad.  Little was a bad choice.  Munoz was the right choice.  Romano (pre 2024) was the right choice.  We don't have that.  Best choice statistically was Fischer, but I assume there is some more advanced underlying data not good with him. 

[Masterbather]

3 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Not True.  Dominquez splits are horrible against lefties.  Hoffman is a homerun machine.

Even if you accept that the second half version of Little is the real version, even if guys lay-off the curve and walk a lot, they still weren't hitting for power off him.   Little's 'bad' second half splits were something like .200 .350 .350.  This is not good.  However Hoffman and Dominquez splits, 3 lefties in a row, were probably worse.   Like lefties hit .270 .370 .440   And that's Little's bad split, his season split is much better. 

I could have accepted a game tying home run, giving up the lead in and of itself is not the end of the world, but if there was one guy that was most likely to have a disastrous appearance it was the guy who cannot aim his pitches to save his f***ing life. 

[Olerud363.354]

Take a look at Hoffman and Dominquez 2025 splits against lefties.  Lefties slug .480 or so against them.  

There was no good choice here sadly.   Statistically Little probably the choice even considering bad second half.

Maybe Little wasn't the choice going deeper into advanced.  However Laika and others I think claim Little's stuff+ is the best out of the choices. 

[Big_Walleye]

3 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

People aren't factoring that the other choices were also bad.  Little was a bad choice.  Munoz was the right choice.  Romano (pre 2024) was the right choice.  We don't have that.  Best choice statistically was Fischer, but I assume there is some more advanced underlying data not good with him. 

Exactly.  They have more data than we (or the broadcasters) do.

[Jonn]

Just need to win tonight. Don’t worry about any other game. Can’t look at it as needing to win 2. You win tonight and worry about Monday when it comes.

[Masterbather]

Just now, Big_Walleye said:

Exactly.  They have more data than we (or the broadcasters) do.

Funny how nobody can find this data. Funny how Schneider didn't bring up this mysterious data.

No, just wanted to give them a different look, and you played right into their strengths and right into Little's weaknesses.

 

 

[Big_Walleye]

9 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

I could have accepted a game tying home run, giving up the lead in and of itself is not the end of the world, but if there was one guy that was most likely to have a disastrous appearance it was the guy who cannot aim his pitches to save his f***ing life. 

It's exactly this narrow focus that I don't understand.   There are plenty of reasons why that game was lost but everyone dwells on one decision.  Dominguez had a chance to put out the fire but failed miserably, the offense had several chances to score but failed.  It was a team effort.

[Big_Walleye]

8 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

Funny how nobody can find this data. Funny how Schneider didn't bring up this mysterious data.

No, just wanted to give them a different look, and you played right into their strengths and right into Little's weaknesses.

 

 

Do you honestly expect the manager to sit in front of the mic and tell the opposition what goes into their decision making?  Now that would be stupid!!!

[Olerud363.354]

Problem:  Jordan Romano broke.  Munoz consistently awesome.  Jays have no Munoz.   Jays have no one with acceptable splits.   If you look at splits Little was best of awful choices. 

Jordan Romano 2022

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
vs RHB	61	139	123	11	22	3	0	2	3	0	11	35	3.18	.179	.268	.252	.520	31	4	4	0	0	2	0	.233	96	49
vs LHB	56	119	109	10	22	2	0	2	3	0	10	38	3.80	.202	.269	.275	.544	30	1	0	0	0	2	1	.290	105	58

Andre Munoz 2025

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
vs RHB	61	135	116	10	21	3	0	1	2	1	13	43	3.31	.181	.276	.233	.509	27	1	3	0	2	1	0	.270	107	47
vs LHB	60	119	100	8	15	3	0	1	3	0	15	40	2.67	.150	.265	.210	.475	21	2	1	2	1	2	0	.233	92	34

Jeff Hoffman 2025

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
vs RHB	69	142	127	22	26	4	0	7	6	2	13	41	3.15	.205	.284	.402	.685	51	1	1	1	0	0	0	.241	85	92
vs LHB	67	145	126	21	28	10	0	8	1	0	14	43	3.07	.222	.313	.492	.805	62	0	3	1	1	1	1	.263	115	118

Seranthony 2025

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
vs RHB	61	145	121	12	16	3	0	1	14	2	22	51	2.32	.132	.269	.182	.451	22	5	1	0	1	0	0	.214	46	32
vs LHB	60	116	101	13	28	5	0	4	5	2	14	28	2.00	.277	.371	.446	.816	45	0	1	0	0	2	0	.348	166	1

Little 2025

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
vs RHB	75	156	127	16	25	4	0	1	2	1	27	46	1.70	.197	.340	.252	.592	32	4	1	0	1	4	5	.296	98	73
vs LHB	72	139	118	12	23	5	2	1	0	3	18	45	2.50	.195	.304	.297	.601	35	1	1	1	1	0	2	.301	103	67