Cubs (Brown) vs Blue Jays (Berrios): 8/12/25, 7:07pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Cubbies are in town!

[Grant77]

Brown is a difficult pitcher to evaluate. The underlying stats are great, but the ERA is over 6. Hopefully we crush him.

[Terminator]

1 hour ago, Grant77 said:

Brown is a difficult pitcher to evaluate. The underlying stats are great, but the ERA is over 6. Hopefully we crush him.

Yeah he does have solid peripherals but he's a two-pitch starter which makes it tough.

Those guys can sometimes thrive if both pitches are elite. They can even survive if the fastball is elite.

But his fastball sucks (84 Stuff+). So despite having a nasty knuckle curve (Stuff+ 120) he needs to be in the bullpen.

 

[Grant77]

15 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Yeah he does have solid peripherals but he's a two-pitch starter which makes it tough.

Those guys can sometimes thrive if both pitches are elite. They can even survive if the fastball is elite.

But his fastball sucks (84 Stuff+). So despite having a nasty knuckle curve (Stuff+ 120) he needs to be in the bullpen.

 

We get lucky in this series missing Imanaga and facing two of their weaker starters, but we aren't so lucky in the next series where we get screwed and face both DeGrom and Eovaldi. We really need to jump on Brown and Horton.

Also looks like Skenes and Keller to open the Pirates series.

[Laika]

Jays are 77.6% to win the division and 63.2% to clinch the bye. 

The bye is more important than being the 3rd best division winner. 

Yeah, I guess we do cheer for Boston against Houston now? That is weird to say. 

Jays have 3x HOU, 3x BOS, 3x NYY on their remaining schedule. Other teams are CHC, TEX, MIA, PIT, MIN, MIL, CIN, BAL, TBR, KCR. So, for the most part no other realistic direct competitors. 

Boston has HOU x2, NYY x7, TOR x3, DET x3 

NYY has HOU x3, DET x3, TOR x3, BOS x7

NYY and BOS will beat up on each other for those 7 games and Toronto still has 3 games left against each of them to step on their necks. We are probably, uncomfortably, hoping BOS and NYY take some wins from HOU and DET to be honest. 

[Laika]

2 hours ago, Terminator said:

Yeah he does have solid peripherals but he's a two-pitch starter which makes it tough.

Those guys can sometimes thrive if both pitches are elite. They can even survive if the fastball is elite.

But his fastball sucks (84 Stuff+). So despite having a nasty knuckle curve (Stuff+ 120) he needs to be in the bullpen.

 

He's such a weird stat line this year 

Jays will need to hit some bombs off him, that's the key. Tonight will be a tater fest. 

[Terminator]

2 minutes ago, Laika said:

He's such a weird stat line this year 

Jays will need to hit some bombs off him, that's the key. Tonight will be a tater fest. 

Once again the key is for Berrios to make sure that the 3 bombs he gives up are all solo shots.

If he can do that we will be feasting on Swiss Chalet tonight.

[Laika]

I am starting Brown in a FIP league so please guys, go oppo and top spin those flyballs. Doubles only.  

[glory]

9 minutes ago, Laika said:

Jays are 77.6% to win the division and 63.2% to clinch the bye. 

The bye is more important than being the 3rd best division winner. 

Yeah, I guess we do cheer for Boston against Houston now? That is weird to say. 

Jays have 3x HOU, 3x BOS, 3x NYY on their remaining schedule. Other teams are CHC, TEX, MIA, PIT, MIN, MIL, CIN, BAL, TBR, KCR. So, for the most part no other realistic direct competitors. 

Boston has HOU x2, NYY x7, TOR x3, DET x3 

NYY has HOU x3, DET x3, TOR x3, BOS x7

NYY and BOS will beat up on each other for those 7 games and Toronto still has 3 games left against each of them to step on their necks. We are probably, uncomfortably, hoping BOS and NYY take some wins from HOU and DET to be honest. 

Yeah winning the division and still having to play the WC round would suck. The Jays won the season series tiebreaker against both the Red Sox and Yankees so they are in a decent spot to win the division. Avoiding the WC round is a much bigger issue. There's very little difference between winning the division and playing WC3 vs losing the division and being WC1. The bye is what's important. The Jays got swept against the Astros the only time they met, so they can't win the season series (only tie it if they sweep the Astros next time). Plus the Tigers are in the Central and without looking at the schedule they probably have a bunch of games vs the Central teams down the stretch, so Houston seems like the much bigger concern here. Seattle overtaking them would be nice (Jays won the season series against the M's). 

[Terminator]

Is there anything to the idea that teams getting the bye often struggle due to the time off?

Seems like there have been some years when the teams with the bye all get knocked out in the same year.

But it could be SSS noise.

[Laika]

3 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Is there anything to the idea that teams getting the bye often struggle due to the time off?

Seems like there have been some years when the teams with the bye all get knocked out in the same year.

But it could be SSS noise.

Probably true and that is why Ross and teams like TBR and CLE tend to assemble Wild Card teams 

It's the optimal thing to do!

[Laika]

Fangraphs does have the Jays updated projections as best in the AL. 

Jays - 92 wins
Tigers - 91
Mariners - 90
Astros - 90
Yankees - 87
Red Sox - 86

Strength of schedule remaining:

Jays - .501
Tigers - .489
Mariners - .502
Astros - .495
Yankees - .483
Red Sox - .500

[Masterbather]

Just start getting some wins damn it. Too many L's lately.

[mphenhef]

58 minutes ago, Laika said:

I am starting Brown in a FIP league so please guys, go oppo and top spin those flyballs. Doubles only.  

team fandom trumps fantasy.  I hope he gets rocked

[Omar]

I dread the thought of playing playoff baseball at Fenway come October; however the The Mariners are the team I wouldn't want to face come playoff time. 

[G-Snarls]

Just win 60% of the remaining games and the rest will sort itself out

[John_Havok]

37 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

Just win 60% of the remaining games and the rest will sort itself out

Exactly this

[Terminator]

Injury updates

[Orgfiller]

13 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Injury updates

The Springer concussion thing is brutal. Obviously I want them to take their time with it so he's not affected when he's back, but concerning it's taken this long for him to be cleared. This could be the kind of thing that lingers for a while.

[Terminator]

Sounds like Springer is just about ready to go. Hopefully whatever is delaying his return is just cautionary.

[glory]

Gimenez back at 2B batting 9th. Rest of the lineup not released yet. Seems pretty likely that Clement will be the starting 3B moving forward and Loperfido will go down once Springer returns, but let’s see what they do tonight. Loperfido has been starting fairly consistently against RHP lately.

[Masterbather]

14 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Sounds like Springer is just about ready to go. Hopefully whatever is delaying his return is just cautionary.

If he's not playing several days after his IL stint has lapsed, especially after initially sending him to Buffalo with the expectation that he would play, it's because he's failing the protocols. That's not cautionary, that's concerning.

[John_Havok]

Buddy DFA'd... Gimenez active. 

This is what you get for going 0-fer in Denver. 

[glory]

19 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Sounds like Springer is just about ready to go. Hopefully whatever is delaying his return is just cautionary.

Sounds like the delay is that he hasn’t been cleared from concussion protocol, so that’s probably not a good thing. Hopefully it won’t impact his return this season or performance if/when he’s back. He’s super important to this team. 

[Grant77]

10 minutes ago, glory said:

Gimenez back at 2B batting 9th. Rest of the lineup not released yet. Seems pretty likely that Clement will be the starting 3B moving forward and Loperfido will go down once Springer returns, but let’s see what they do tonight. Loperfido has been starting fairly consistently against RHP lately.

If you're keeping France, I'd rather see Schneider go down than Loperfido. I think they are similarly talented hitters and the roster construction just works better if we keep the lefty. It's a good problem to have.

[Masterbather]

6 minutes ago, Grant77 said:

If you're keeping France, I'd rather see Schneider go down than Loperfido. I think they are similarly talented hitters and the roster construction just works better if we keep the lefty. It's a good problem to have.

France is is such an odd fit. But the dude has sort of been raking since he's been here.

Maybe they figured something out. Maybe it's just animal spirits that will dissipate shortly.

It would be nice if he created a good problem.

[Grant77]

3 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

France is is such an odd fit. But the dude has sort of been raking since he's been here.

Maybe they figured something out. Maybe it's just animal spirits that will dissipate shortly.

It would be nice if he created a good problem.

I'm not sold yet. He's just 6-24 with a double and a walk outside of that one game in Colorado.

[Masterbather]

Assad starting for the Cubbies.

[Grant77]

Jeff Blair says that George Springer is back with the major league team and no longer in Buffalo. 

[Masterbather]

1 minute ago, Grant77 said:

I'm not sold yet. He's just 6-24 with a double and a walk outside of that one game in Colorado.

That's a good observation. Yeah I don't think anybody is sold yet. And honestly, it would take a lot for me to pick this guy over Schneider on the major league roster.