Article: So That’s Why the Blue Jays Didn’t Extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

[Laika]

19 minutes ago, Delete_My_Account_Thanks said:

Why would he need to lower his sights? 

$500M isn’t as far-fetched as people think. He’s still just 25 (for 3 more days) has shown MVP potential and his elite exit velocity metrics show that his power is sustainable. Players who combine age, production, and upside like Vlad are rare — and teams pay a premium for that.  If it's not the Jays then someone else will.

Add in the fact that he’s durable (playing 150+ games in three straight seasons) and has already proven he can thrive in a major market, (while being THE FACE of the franchise) and you’re looking at someone who can anchor our lineup for a decade. With the way the market’s trending, $500M to extend for our franchise cornerstone isn’t unreasonable at all.

$400M would be a premium. It would set records. 

He had 1.3 fWAR in 2023. He is fat, slow, and inconsistent with chronic groundball issues. 

He is negotiating as if he has done nothing but produce 5+ WAR seasons his entire career. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

14 minutes ago, Laika said:

$400M would be a premium. It would set records. 

He had 1.3 fWAR in 2023. He is fat, slow, and inconsistent with chronic groundball issues. 

He is negotiating as if he has done nothing but produce 5+ WAR seasons his entire career. 

This 

[glory]

Yeah the Jays should not budge on what they (allegedly) last offered. That was not only fair to the player, but probably hurtful to the team in the long run (price of getting the player), so if he doesn't circle back to that then let him test free agency and see what the market says. 

[Terminator]

400M is a great deal for Vlad.

If he repeats 2024, he could get higher, but I don't think it will be much higher. He'll need to have some sort of Judge-like walk year where he raises his game to completely new levels to get a ton more than 400M.

If he gets hurt or repeats 2023, then he's looking at a little bit better terms than what Pete Alonso just got. 

I think with recent leaks revealing how close they are, he's trying to get more but it's squeezing blood out of a stone at this point. Maybe he'll get another drop but I think the deal will get done before Opening Day.

[Nexii]

It feels like Vlad is taking a big risk. Maybe it's statistically as likely he puts up a 2 WAR season as an 8 WAR season. But it doesn't feel like it. 

I think he's done a poor job of PR though. It coming out that he wanted significantly over market isn't a good look, even if it's essentially the Judge financial situation.

[Terminator]

I guess if you're in Vlad's camp, your hope is that whatever he did from June 1 on is simply the new normal and that will carry over to 2025.

He hit the absolute piss out of the ball by slashing .343/.403/.620 in 450 plate appearances. That would get him into the 7 to 8 WAR territory he would need to start pushing well beyond 500 mil IMO.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, Delete_My_Account_Thanks said:

Why would he need to lower his sights? 

$500M isn’t as far-fetched as people think. He’s still just 25 (for 3 more days) has shown MVP potential and his elite exit velocity metrics show that his power is sustainable. Players who combine age, production, and upside like Vlad are rare — and teams pay a premium for that.  If it's not the Jays then someone else will.

Add in the fact that he’s durable (playing 150+ games in three straight seasons) and has already proven he can thrive in a major market, (while being THE FACE of the franchise) and you’re looking at someone who can anchor our lineup for a decade. With the way the market’s trending, $500M to extend for our franchise cornerstone isn’t unreasonable at all.

I don't think the market is trending toward those kinds of dollars. Juan Soto is a unicorn. He has cleared an OPS+ of 140 in seven of the eight years he has been in the league. While he's bad defensively, there have never been questions about where he fits defensively or his physical conditioning.

Vlad has cleared an OPS+ of 140 just twice in his career. I'm a big supporter of signing Vlad and overpaying for him but I don't think the market is going to come together the way he wants. Teams no longer fall over themselves for slugging first baseman who can't play defense the way they did in the past.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I think he's a fun loving guy, but he's a peanut brain. I don't think he can sustain the numbers he'll need to in order to put up an 8ish WAR season, but I hope I'm wrong. It'd be great if he did because:

1. It'd be a blast to watch as a Jays fan

2. Probably means the Jays are also doing well

3. Even if they're not doing well, he'd have much higher trade value at the deadline if he's mashing the cover off the ball

[Spanky99]

Hah, the only way Vlad reaches 8 fWAR, he'd have to mash like Ohtani and Judge, tall task. And yes, I'd love to see it.

[Vancouverite]

5 hours ago, Delete_My_Account_Thanks said:

Why would he need to lower his sights? 

$500M isn’t as far-fetched as people think. He’s still just 25 (for 3 more days) has shown MVP potential and his elite exit velocity metrics show that his power is sustainable. Players who combine age, production, and upside like Vlad are rare — and teams pay a premium for that.  If it's not the Jays then someone else will.

Add in the fact that he’s durable (playing 150+ games in three straight seasons) and has already proven he can thrive in a major market, (while being THE FACE of the franchise) and you’re looking at someone who can anchor our lineup for a decade. With the way the market’s trending, $500M to extend for our franchise cornerstone isn’t unreasonable at all.

wouldnt 500M be the 3rd highest baseball contract ever after Ohtani and Soto?

that's pretty far fetched, he was 13th in WAR in 2024, 316th in 2023, 91st in 2022, 9th in 2021  He's a 1st baseman, poor defense, abysmal base runner ... and he wants the 3rd largest contract in baseball history?

in Jack Armstrong words, get that garbage outta here

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

2 hours ago, Terminator said:

I guess if you're in Vlad's camp, your hope is that whatever he did from June 1 on is simply the new normal and that will carry over to 2025.

He hit the absolute piss out of the ball by slashing .343/.403/.620 in 450 plate appearances. That would get him into the 7 to 8 WAR territory he would need to start pushing well beyond 500 mil IMO.

If he does that over a season he's getting Ohtani/Soto money

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't think the market is trending toward those kinds of dollars. Juan Soto is a unicorn. He has cleared an OPS+ of 140 in seven of the eight years he has been in the league. While he's bad defensively, there have never been questions about where he fits defensively or his physical conditioning.

Vlad has cleared an OPS+ of 140 just twice in his career. I'm a big supporter of signing Vlad and overpaying for him but I don't think the market is going to come together the way he wants. Teams no longer fall over themselves for slugging first baseman who can't play defense the way they did in the past.

I agree he's not Soto, but he's not asking for Soto money.

Somebody will pay him 500 million.  If prefer it were the Blue Jays

[BB17]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't think the market is trending toward those kinds of dollars. Juan Soto is a unicorn. He has cleared an OPS+ of 140 in seven of the eight years he has been in the league. While he's bad defensively, there have never been questions about where he fits defensively or his physical conditioning.

Vlad has cleared an OPS+ of 140 just twice in his career. I'm a big supporter of signing Vlad and overpaying for him but I don't think the market is going to come together the way he wants. Teams no longer fall over themselves for slugging first baseman who can't play defense the way they did in the past.

Forget about Soto the player, if Steve Cohen wasn't the Mets owner no way Soto gets paid over 600M. In all liklihood he would have gotten like 500M but Cohen and his desire to get him plus endless supply of $ just big way more than anyone has ever seen.

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 hours ago, BB17 said:

Forget about Soto the player, if Steve Cohen wasn't the Mets owner no way Soto gets paid over 600M. In all liklihood he would have gotten like 500M but Cohen and his desire to get him plus endless supply of $ just big way more than anyone has ever seen.

Cohen definitely inflates the market but I don't think he inflates it that much. But hey, it's possible.

[Spanky99]

I really have a hard time getting behind the people that think he should be signed to this absurd amount of money, Michael Anthony should stick to music. 🤔😜

And I love Vlad the ballplayer, his numbers simply don't justify that amount, especially a number starting at half a billion.  Since 2021 he's been 25th best hitter in baseball, sure he's young, but the inconsistencies loom large, I keep saying it, but it's best the brass wait until next winter, match his market numbers and call it a day. Everyone wins.

[Spanky99]

10 hours ago, BB17 said:

Forget about Soto the player, if Steve Cohen wasn't the Mets owner no way Soto gets paid over 600M. In all liklihood he would have gotten like 500M but Cohen and his desire to get him plus endless supply of $ just big way more than anyone has ever seen.

It's wild to me that Soto makes more money than Ohtani, talk about unicorns.

[JaysAllMighty]

12 hours ago, Delete_My_Account_Thanks said:

I agree he's not Soto, but he's not asking for Soto money.

Somebody will pay him 500 million.  If prefer it were the Blue Jays

So they didn't delete your account?

[jaysblue]

Jays would actually be better re-signing Bo for $200-250M and get 3-4 WAR seasons out of him rather than giving Vladdy $500M. 

[jaysblue]

33 minutes ago, Spanky99 said:

It's wild to me that Soto makes more money than Ohtani, talk about unicorns.

Soto is also 26-years-old whereas Ohtani was 30. But yeah IMO, would rather pay Ohtani more than Soto from a baseball, fan and business perspective. 

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

56 minutes ago, JaysAllMighty said:

So they didn't delete your account?

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Cohen definitely inflates the market but I don't think he inflates it that much. But hey, it's possible.

He does to an extent, but it's just because he doesn't care how much he spends when its on a guy he wants. He only cares about the money when it's not a true "Cohen target" like Alonso. 

He wanted Soto, he made sure he got him. 

Ohtani chose where he wanted to go, otherwise there's no doubt in my mind Cohen would have offered him more money. 

Cohen does what he does to just make sure only the biggest fish can compete with him and even the big fish don't even bother trying. 

[Terminator]

14 hours ago, Delete_My_Account_Thanks said:

If he does that over a season he's getting Ohtani/Soto money

He doesn't walk a ton for a premier slugger, he's even worse defensively than Soto and has been more inconsistent.

So I don't think he ever gets Soto money but I agree he would get more than Ohtani. Probably quite a bit more if he could put up numbers like that.

[glory]

27 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

He does to an extent, but it's just because he doesn't care how much he spends when its on a guy he wants. He only cares about the money when it's not a true "Cohen target" like Alonso. 

He wanted Soto, he made sure he got him. 

Ohtani chose where he wanted to go, otherwise there's no doubt in my mind Cohen would have offered him more money. 

Cohen does what he does to just make sure only the biggest fish can compete with him and even the big fish don't even bother trying. 

Yeah no one is outbidding Cohen on a player that he desperately wants. That doesn't apply to players he might not care for as much and wants more fiscal responsibility involved (ex. Jays outbidding the Mets for Springer). He also employs Stearns now, who isn't going to throw money away for no reason like previous GM's. If Cohen wants Vlad, then that's where Vlad will end up. Not sure he would want Vlad that much, but who knows. There will be enough big market teams involved to drive up the price (Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, etc, could all use him) but I'm not sure anyone will break the bank for him ala Soto. A big 2025 might change that. As is, I'd be pretty surprised if anyone gives $500M to a 1B/DH only player, not even factoring the lack of elite track record.

[Spanky99]

1 hour ago, jaysblue said:

Soto is also 26-years-old whereas Ohtani was 30. But yeah IMO, would rather pay Ohtani more than Soto from a baseball, fan and business perspective. 

Ohtani makes way less, Vlad want's Ohtani present day value money, lol... wrap your head around that?

 

[jaysblue]

9 minutes ago, Spanky99 said:

Ohtani makes way less, Vlad want's Ohtani present day value money, lol... wrap your head around that?

 

Yeah that's crazy. Vladdy needs to come back to reality. 

[BB17]

1 hour ago, glory said:

Yeah no one is outbidding Cohen on a player that he desperately wants. That doesn't apply to players he might not care for as much and wants more fiscal responsibility involved (ex. Jays outbidding the Mets for Springer). He also employs Stearns now, who isn't going to throw money away for no reason like previous GM's. If Cohen wants Vlad, then that's where Vlad will end up. Not sure he would want Vlad that much, but who knows. There will be enough big market teams involved to drive up the price (Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, etc, could all use him) but I'm not sure anyone will break the bank for him ala Soto. A big 2025 might change that. As is, I'd be pretty surprised if anyone gives $500M to a 1B/DH only player, not even factoring the lack of elite track record.

I think part of the reason why Cohen went so high for Soto was because he was getting a player to leave the Yankees and go to the Mets. I'm sure sticking it to the Yankees was worth a lot of $ on its own for him lol.

And I feel like he's not going to have the same desire for Vladdy given what he just did for Alonso, who was homegrown by the org.

[Spanky99]

Ross needs to tell Marc Anthony that contract for Soto was Cohen tax and deal with it. If Toronto legit offered 400-450M he's a fool. I can't see his market breaking that next winter. 

[Terminator]

Wise up, quit your cha-cha dancing, and learn some ball Marc Anthony! It's time to get this Vlad extension done!