Article: BREAKING: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Won’t Sign Extension With Blue Jays

[Nexii]

5 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

Ok now I see where Laika is going with this.

 

I guess by his logic Soto should have be making about 2 million, since Ernie made $757,700 last year, putting up 3.4 WAR

Vlad is around 60% of Soto's career WAR projection because it's a linear decline at around 0.5 WAR per year. That would make Vlad worth around 480M if you're buying out his whole career. 

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

4 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

Arb awards are not based on market value.

Are they not based on past production?

If not, what then?  I'm looking forward to your answer.

 

Also, why are you guys debating me?  Do you even know?  All I have stated again and again is:

If the Jays offered Soto 765 million, they should have been willing to give Vlad 450-500.

So far no one has given any valid argument against this.  Just a bunch of BS arguing for the sake of arguing. 

If the Jays gave him 450 million, you'd all be celebrating.  But because they didn't, the usual suspects want to attack me for questioning the front offices' logic.

 

[Spanky99]

Legit 🦤....😅

[max silver]

27 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

Guerrero was awarded 28.5 million in his final year of Arb.

Soto, the year prior was awarded 31.5 million for his final year.  

These are numbers are based on what they actually did.

The system thinks they are worth very close to the same.  Closer than I even do.  I feel that Vlad is 2/3 to 3/4 of Soto, which I think is fair.

Personally I don't think Soto is worth $765 million.

But if he is, the Vlad should be worth 450 easily.

 

Vlad received a huge raise after the monster 2021 season that set this all in motion. The arbitration system is largely broken in that players can still receive sizable raises despite not really earning them. Vlad is the perfect illustration of this, as he was on track to earn a sizeable raise in arbitration after his terrible 2023 season despite producing a 1.3 FWAR season. If anything it would have been perfectly fair and reasonable for him to see a pay reduction based on the poor results in 2023 and even 2022.

[Jimcanuck]

9 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

Are they not based on past production?

If not, what then?  I'm looking forward to your answer.

 

Also, why are you guys debating me?  Do you even know?  All I have stated again and again is:

If the Jays offered Soto 765 million, they should have been willing to give Vlad 450-500.

So far no one has given any valid argument against this.  Just a bunch of BS arguing for the sake of arguing. 

If the Jays gave him 450 million, you'd all be celebrating.  But because they didn't, the usual suspects want to attack me for questioning the front offices' logic.

 

1 year of Soto on the open market would be $50M+.  Not the $31.5M awarded by the arbitrator following CBA rules.

Whereas it is quite possible Vlad gets less than the arb award on the open market as his 2023 season was terrible.

[Spanky99]

26 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

Are they not based on past production?

If not, what then?  I'm looking forward to your answer.

 

Also, why are you guys debating me?  Do you even know?  All I have stated again and again is:

If the Jays offered Soto 765 million, they should have been willing to give Vlad 450-500.

So far no one has given any valid argument against this.  Just a bunch of BS arguing for the sake of arguing. 

If the Jays gave him 450 million, you'd all be celebrating.  But because they didn't, the usual suspects want to attack me for questioning the front offices' logic.

So you were in the room? 450M might've been on the table. Actually I'm going to role with my intuition and pulling s*** out of my ass as well, Jays offered 475M and the bastard turned them down. Yay... that was easy.

So you were in the room? 450M might've been on the table. Actually I'm going to role with my intuition and pulling s*** out of my ass as well, Jays offered 475M and the bastard turned them down. Yay... that was easy.

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

Please answer my question;

Why would Atkins offer Soto 765 but won't go anywhere near 450 for Vlad?

If it comes out that they did, and Vlad was asking for something like 600 million I'll admit I was wrong, however I doubt that is the case.

 

[max silver]

28 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

How horrible a Blue Jays fan do you have to be to be trying to argue that Vlad isn't worth 2/3 of Juan Soto?

Do you dislike your homegrown star that much?

Because there's nothing coming through the system.  Get ready for some lean years.

I'll throw this line of thinking right back at you. How much of a Vlad fanboy do you need to be to insist upon handing him an above market value contract that he has in no way shape or form earned with his on the field results? I fully expect if he doesn't replicate the 5 month stretch in 2024 when he was MLB's second best hitter he is going to be in for a rude awakening in free agency. MLB teams aren't as illogical as the average fan tends to be, and they are largely paying players now based on their proven ability to produce wins on the field. Vlad has been so up and down through his career and comes with more question marks and concerns than nearly every other star player in the sport.

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

So Max I'll assume by your logic that you were pissed off at Ross when you found out the Jays offered Soto that much money?

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

8 minutes ago, max silver said:

I'll throw this line of thinking right back at you. How much of a Vlad fanboy do you need to be to insist upon handing him an above market value contract that he has in no way shape or form earned with his on the field results? I fully expect if he doesn't replicate the 5 month stretch in 2024 when he was MLB's second best hitter he is going to be in for a rude awakening in free agency. MLB teams aren't as illogical as the average fan tends to be, and they are largely paying players now based on their proven ability to produce wins on the field. Vlad has been so up and down through his career and comes with more question marks and concerns than nearly every other star player in the sport.

TLDR

[Nexii]

It's really just speculation whether it's the Jays or Vlad that are way off market value. Not much has been leaked

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

Hopefully we find out soon.  If he was asking a ridiculous amount I'll admit I was wrong.

[Jimcanuck]

8 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

So Max I'll assume by your logic that you were pissed off at Ross when you found out the Jays offered Soto that much money?

Are you dense?

Soto is money in the bank, very consistent.  Low risk.

Vlad is extremely inconsistent.  High risk.

Pricing the risk, most teams would assess Vlad to be 50% or less of Soto's value.

[Spanky99]

On 2/18/2025 at 1:57 PM, Brownie19 said:

Correct.

[Stangstag]

47 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

Hopefully we find out soon.  If he was asking a ridiculous amount I'll admit I was wrong.

No you wont. You’ll move the goalposts again.

”550 isn’t really THAT much more than 400, they should have signed him. Cheapass Rogers!”

[Key22]

Perhaps we have to look at this more at a macro level. The Jays stunk last year with having a great year offensively from VLAD - one player does not make a winner.

The fact that SOTO is grossly overpaid and will be an albatross contract in maybe 8 years (halfway through his contract) doesn't mean the Jays should follow.

Soto is a bad defender and not a good runner - he is a one-dimensional player (bat) and so is Vlad. Vlad is so dumb he gets picked off second in a critical playoff game.

For mega-dollar contracts I want a 5-tool player - give me someone who is a strong defender and terrific offensively - preferably a short stop or CFer. The Yankees just showed everyone what crappy defence can do in the playoffs. Now yes, they got to the WS but there is no great prize for second place. They played all year to be embarrassed on the world stage.

The Jays already offered Vlad a contract that was above Freddie Freeman - you know - a better hitter and someone who has proven to do it in the clutch. Yes he's older blah blah - but I would rather have Freeman than Vlad in the ninth when you need a big hit.

 

 

 

 

[Rusty_Savage]

1 hour ago, Vladdywagon said:

Please answer my question;

Why would Atkins offer Soto 765 but won't go anywhere near 450 for Vlad?

If it comes out that they did, and Vlad was asking for something like 600 million I'll admit I was wrong, however I doubt that is the case.

 

You have no clue that the FO wouldn't go near $450. You're assuming they didn't and are throwing a hissy fit over it. 

 

Just give it up, there's no point in debating this until we know the number

[max silver]

2 hours ago, Vladdywagon said:

So Max I'll assume by your logic that you were pissed off at Ross when you found out the Jays offered Soto that much money?

When did I even suggest that was the case? Soto is essentially a guaranteed hall of famer at this point, and he possesses a skill set that is very likely going to age well. He's been super consistent in his career and is one of the best bets to continue being an elite hitter in the sport. That contract has really raised the bar in salaries, but he's the type of hitter that rarely becomes available in free agency. Vlad simply hasn't been anywhere close as consistent, has a remarkably low floor when he's not hitting, and has produced a far less valuable peak season than Soto. Vlad has shown up out of shape several times in his career, is MLB's least valuable baserunner and defender, has a chronic wrist issue, and has already suffered from several knee issues at this point of his career. He's an incredibly risky proposition to extend at something closer to a Devers type of contract, and if he's asking for $450 million or more that's patently absurd.

[max silver]

2 hours ago, Vladdywagon said:

TLDR

That should be more like TDTU (too dense to understand).

[Key22]

21 minutes ago, max silver said:

When did I even suggest that was the case? Soto is essentially a guaranteed hall of famer at this point, and he possesses a skill set that is very likely going to age well. He's been super consistent in his career and is one of the best bets to continue being an elite hitter in the sport. That contract has really raised the bar in salaries, but he's the type of hitter that rarely becomes available in free agency. Vlad simply hasn't been anywhere close as consistent, has a remarkably low floor when he's not hitting, and has produced a far less valuable peak season than Soto. Vlad has shown up out of shape several times in his career, is MLB's least valuable baserunner and defender, has a chronic wrist issue, and has already suffered from several knee issues at this point of his career. He's an incredibly risky proposition to extend at something closer to a Devers type of contract, and if he's asking for $450 million or more that's patently absurd.

I know I just dumped on Vlad but to be fair to him a little bit - he has not had anywhere near the protection in the line-up that Soto had. I mean the Jays had Vlad and a bunch of s***** hitters all around him. I mean Kirk, Varsho, no Bo for most of the year and he was atrocious when he did play and Springer. I mean eesh.

Meanwhile, Soto had Judge the whole year.  So Vlad had a monster year with no protection - so he does deserve some big credit for 2024. I am sure the Jays' offer to Vlad was a good one. Before Soto signed they offered him what would have been by far the largest offer to any first baseman in history. So I don't want to be too judgemental of Rogers here. 

 

There is no harm in waiting until free agency if the player isn't giving you a hometown discount. Judge ended up signing back with the Yankees.

The reality is that the Jays have not been able to win with Vlad - so perhaps taking another route is better. Unfortunately, the farm is garbage so who knows where the talent is coming from. Maybe Wil Wagner will be the next Wade Boggs.

 

[Gen.Disarray]

6 hours ago, Laika said:

So is a 1 WAR player worth $117.69 million? That's how it works right?

Someone needs to slap Vlad with a fish and tell him and his agent that this s*** is not linear and superstar players capable of 8+ WAR seasons enter a different planet of calculations entirely. Compare deez. 

 

Gahd dang I wish I could like this post multiple times

[Omar]

3 hours ago, Vladdywagon said:

Are they not based on past production?

If not, what then?  I'm looking forward to your answer.

 

Also, why are you guys debating me?  Do you even know?  All I have stated again and again is:

If the Jays offered Soto 765 million, they should have been willing to give Vlad 450-500.

So far no one has given any valid argument against this.  Just a bunch of BS arguing for the sake of arguing. 

If the Jays gave him 450 million, you'd all be celebrating.  But because they didn't, the usual suspects want to attack me for questioning the front offices' logic.

 

Because the Soto contract is what is termed as an "outlier" ie. it is more than three standard deviations away from the average mlb salary.  Meaning it is not a valid data point to compare other players salaries against. You cannot use it in the linear way you have. If teams paid players with this linear approach the team salaries would be out of control.  Conversly we cannot say that Soto is worth 25 times as much as say Ernie Clement because he makes 25 times more than Clements salary per season.  I think Laika already said as much but you don't seem to grasp this.  

edit:  And yes, I'll say it, Soto is not worth what he is being paid.  Just because another team makes a mistake doesn't mean the Jays have to follow suit.

[Big_Walleye]

4 hours ago, Terminator said:

You’re talking completely out of your ass. Vlad’s numbers in high leverage situations are off the charts. 

So you're saying he didn't pad his numbers after the team was out of the race?  He certainly did.

Youre talking about high leverage within a single game.  I'm talking about high leverage within  a season.  2 completely different things.

You obviously failed to comprehend my point before calling me out.  In other words it's your ass doing the talking.

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Big_Walleye said:

So you're saying he didn't pad his numbers after the team was out of the race?  He certainly did.

Youre talking about high leverage within a single game.  I'm talking about high leverage within  a season.  2 completely different things.

You obviously failed to comprehend my point before calling me out.  In other words it's your ass doing the talking.

Vlad had a bad start to the season, that's it. He turned around his season towards the end of April, as over the last 5 months of the season he was MLB's second best qualified hitter behind Aaron Judge. I hate this false narrative that he only produced when the team was out of the race as it's simply not true. The team was hanging around the .500 mark until June and Vlad had turned around his season far before that time. 

[Jays24]

My guess is Vlad wanted a deal closer to 500M and the Jays were offering a deal closer to 300M.  Since we're all speaking out of our ass, thought I'd join the club lol. 

Front office should have already known Vladdy's number and if there was realistic wiggle room much sooner.  Just trade the guy for the best package you can get but I doubt a front office that has their jobs on the line will do exactly that.  

[Spanky99]

10 hours ago, Spanky99 said:

C'mon dude, Vladdy >> Alonso and it isn't close, as for clutch, here's their High Leverage numbers...

Vlad - .305/.399/.504 .903 OPS 199 ISO .370 wOBA 140 wRC+

Pete - .232/.348/.435 .782 OPS  203 ISO .324 wOBA 108 wrc+

As you can see it isn't particularly close.

 

6 hours ago, Big_Walleye said:

I'm talking about go-ahead homer in the 9th inning of an NLCS game type of clutch.  What did Vlad do when he saw playoff games?  He certainly wasn't the aircraft carrier he claims to be.

 

2 hours ago, Big_Walleye said:

So you're saying he didn't pad his numbers after the team was out of the race?  He certainly did.

Youre talking about high leverage within a single game.  I'm talking about high leverage within  a season.  2 completely different things.

You obviously failed to comprehend my point before calling me out.  In other words it's your ass doing the talking.

Dude???

[Rusty_Savage]

https://x.com/FAN590/status/1892301999246291191?t=Fo9e4rTBMx1hXRE3hyJ9dg&s=19

 

I don't know how to embed tweets but Passan emphasizes that Vladdy turned down A LOT of money. Hopefully he has a monster year and we re-sign him but either way he should be determined to have a big year

[Nexii]

Soto's contract wasn't even that crazy once you sit down and calculate just how good his career WAR projections are. 65 WAR or something to age 40 makes his contract out to be $12M/WAR, and much of it in the future when that will be the going price. I think it's around $8M/WAR right now.

Vlad projects to around 40 WAR, or $480M/15. He's had up and down years but all players have high variance, even the superstars. I don't buy that as a reason to pay him less. However the whole showing up to camp out of shape in 2020-21 takes him down a bit for me. Maybe something like $420-450M range 

 

[Big_Walleye]

8 hours ago, Spanky99 said:

 

 

Dude???

That says it all...

The Blue Jays have given Vlad every opportunity to be the "Dude".  As their supposed leader,  where has he taken them?

He says publicly that he wants to remain a Blue Jay, but the "Dude" recently turned down an absolute ****load of money to do so.  Without any real negotiating from his side by the sounds of it.

At this point the "Dude" is nothing more than a distraction to the team. I trust what my eyes tell me, and that interview to open spring training was an eye-opener to say the least.

It's quite clear that this "Dude's" days as a Blue Jay are over.  Best to trade him now and remove the distraction.  The Mets reportedly showed interest so what better return than Alonso?  If the Mets need to add something to balance the deal then so be it. The "Dude" needs to leave.

[Omar]

What better return than Alonso?

I would hope our return for our best asset in his prime is something better than an aging one dimensional player soon to be in the twilight of his career.  Or so we only plan one season into the future?

If Vladdy gets moved I would want prospects, the Jays can fill holes with their deep pockets.