General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[Masterbather]

Just now, Grant77 said:

Mariners are 14th in starter WAR and 17th in reliever WAR, 18th overall. They're an average pitching team that is very tired. The Tigers were a better pitching team, despite the narrative.

I'm very excited to see what our bats can do against them, especially considering that their defense is about as bad as you'll ever see from a playoff team.

Their lineup is beatable if JS makes the right moves. Raleigh carried them, but there's a lot of weak spots and free outs if we pitch around him, much like the Yankees lineup. They have a very poor bench to counter any possible moves.

The problem with year long statistics is they don't necessarily reflect where a team is right now. 

In the Mariners case, they had injuries to their pitching staff and they obviously made some key additions at the deadline. They have some really good arms and they have a lot of power in their lineup. Game changing power. They also have a real closer.

These are two very good teams and I think it will be important to take care of your home field in this series 

[Terminator]

2 hours ago, SeranthonySantander said:

there is no way the mariners players were getting drunk.

if you are over 30, a hangover is going to last basically 2 days with the second day being mild, but you are nowhere near 100%

They aren’t fatas5es living sedentary life styles like you. No chance they get 2 day hangovers. 

[Terminator]

32 minutes ago, bones said:

Fangraphs giving the Mariners 57.3% chance to win the ALCS is insane to me. We are the better or at least equal hitting team, far far far superior defensive team, and I would say close to equal in terms of pitching overall.

Not to mention we're on 4 days rest with home field advantaged and they just played a 15 inning winner take all game where they failed to advance and score a runner from second multiple times. 

 

🤔

Vegas has it about the exact opposite.

On paper the teams are pretty close. I think the Cal/Julio combo and their rotation and Closer would be enticing for a projection system. 

But they looked like crap against the Tigers who kind of suck. The rest/travel stuff will play a factor and overall the Mariners never really impress me much with their on field performance and game plans. They can develop talent, especially pitching, but it seems like they are perpetual underachievers. Same could be said about us I suppose but this year seems to be different. 

[SeranthonySantander]

20 minutes ago, Terminator said:

They aren’t fatas5es living sedentary life styles like you. No chance they get 2 day hangovers. 

I do hard labour 8 hours a day and I have to work injured, even if I have a minor knee sprain from ignorant slides into home.  Or I would be homeless.  Trying to work hungover is just not something I would ever attempt though.  

[John_Havok]

24 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

The problem with year long statistics is they don't necessarily reflect where a team is right now. 

In the Mariners case, they had injuries to their pitching staff and they obviously made some key additions at the deadline. They have some really good arms and they have a lot of power in their lineup. Game changing power. They also have a real closer.

These are two very good teams and I think it will be important to take care of your home field in this series 

No, the problem with using #'s from the staff is that they won't be facing the entire staff, the garbage relievers that contributed garbage numbers wont be on the roster. Take their top 4 starters and top 4 relievers #'s vs the Jays top 4 starters and top 4 relievers and I bet the edge is solidly on the side of the Mariners. 

Offense overall is about tied as far as wRC+ goes, but how they got those numbers is different. Mariner's 238 HRs, Jays 191.  K rates, Seattle 23.3% (7th worst in MLB), Jays 17.8% (1st overall).   Despite trailing in HRs by alot though, Jays SLG was higher than Seattle, .427 to .420, largely due to hitting 294 doubles vs Seattle's 234. and outhitting them overall  1461 to 1345. Basically, Seattle can put it over the wall better, but they don't put it in play as much. Jays put it play far more, and find the gaps far more. 

Defense is so far tilted to the Jays it's not even remotely close. 

[SeranthonySantander]

Would be nice if we had a true ace like every other team has multiple of.  Scary to think what our rotation numbers would be without the defence 

[Eat My Shatkins]

13 minutes ago, SeranthonySantander said:

Would be nice if we had a true ace like every other team has multiple of.  Scary to think what our rotation numbers would be without the defence 

Every other team has multiple aces?

 

Anyways, Gausman has pitched like an Ace in the past. Bieber was an Ace who won a cy young. So far Yesavage has looked 100% like an Ace.

All 3 of them are capable of putting up an Ace like performance on any given night.

[Abomination]

14 minutes ago, SeranthonySantander said:

Would be nice if we had a true ace like every other team has multiple of.  Scary to think what our rotation numbers would be without the defence 

Define "true ace". Gausman was 10th overall in baseball this year (based on WAR). That's pretty damn good.

[SeranthonySantander]

15 minutes ago, Abomination said:

Define "true ace". Gausman was 10th overall in baseball this year (based on WAR). That's pretty damn good.

Fried.  Rodon.  Shitler.  Skubal.  Crochet.  All of Tampa bay rotation.  Trevor Rogers.

[G-Snarls]

2 hours ago, Masterbather said:

Yeah but that's just jogging around the bases, what happens when he's way out in front of a pitch or when he has to make a quick cut and stop and start up again? 

Whatever, they're going to do what they're going to do but there are downsides to bringing him back, at this point I'm not sure it's worth it given that he's clearly not 100%.

Is he back next season or not? 

Can he mash some RBI doubles? 

Do you have to pinch run for him or not 

These are the main questions I have 

[Grant77]

Simply to illustrate how much their park comes into play, I'll use ERA. This Mariners staff that has been quite healthy on the whole is 23rd in road ERA, worse than the Jays.

[jaysblue]

3 hours ago, max silver said:

I'm not a huge fan of the 2-3-2 setup personally, as the lesser team receives a pretty massive advantage in the series if they manage to split the first two games. I think something like 3-3-1 would be far more advantageous for the team with the better regular season record.

Yeah was going to say the same thing. NHL and NBA are different. I guess MLB wants to limit the amount of travel days/off-days just for one game. 

[Grant77]

1 hour ago, Masterbather said:

The problem with year long statistics is they don't necessarily reflect where a team is right now. 

In the Mariners case, they had injuries to their pitching staff and they obviously made some key additions at the deadline. They have some really good arms and they have a lot of power in their lineup. Game changing power. They also have a real closer.

These are two very good teams and I think it will be important to take care of your home field in this series 

They do represent the current team pretty effectively. Their rotation and key relievers were remarkably healthy, with just 7 starters making 159 starts. They didn't add any important pitchers at the deadline, so it's been the same guys all season.

There's some nuance to this obviously, I get it. I'm just frustrated at the narrative that they are some kind of elite pitching staff when that's obviously not even close to being the truth. It's a stretch to even call them top 10, but I could buy that argument.

[jaysblue]

36 minutes ago, Abomination said:

Define "true ace". Gausman was 10th overall in baseball this year (based on WAR). That's pretty damn good.

Not sure I consider Gausman a "true ace" or "No. 1" starter anymore. Last season and parts of this season he didn't look like his elite self from 2021/2022/2023. I think those days are behind him. 

However, he has pitched very in the second half and has turned things around, posting a 2.82 ERA with 85K/16BB in 83.1 innings which is encouraging and much needed. I think he's a "really good No. 2 starter" if he keeps up pitching at this level. Most importantly, he's pitching well at the right time and hope he continues to have a strong Postseason. 

No knocks against Gausman. I'm a huge fan. Not every team has a Crochet or Skubal and its not easy to draft/develop or trade for those guys. I'm fine with Gausman taking the ball in any must-win game and confident he can matchup against any of the better arms out there and keep the Jays in the game. 

[Jays24]

No issues with Seattle being favored slightly... its exactly what I expected.  Their lineup is better than ours on paper but we've found ways to overcome that all year.  Its gonna be a great one.  

[bones]

The AL West is also a lot worse than the AL East!! The mariners were 10-20 against the AL East this year.

Fangraphs is wrong! 

[jaysblue]

1 minute ago, Jays24 said:

No issues with Seattle being favored slightly... its exactly what I expected.  Their lineup is better than ours on paper but we've found ways to overcome that all year.  Its gonna be a great one.  

Blue Jays are favoured in Vegas.

Odds:

Mariners 2.15

Jays 1.74

[Doubleplay21]

Through the years Raleigh and Castillo always have been Jay killers coming up big.

[max silver]

15 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Not sure I consider Gausman a "true ace" or "No. 1" starter anymore. Last season and parts of this season he didn't look like his elite self from 2021/2022/2023. I think those days are behind him. 

However, he has pitched very in the second half and has turned things around, posting a 2.82 ERA with 85K/16BB in 83.1 innings which is encouraging and much needed. I think he's a "really good No. 2 starter" if he keeps up pitching at this level. Most importantly, he's pitching well at the right time and hope he continues to have a strong Postseason. 

No knocks against Gausman. I'm a huge fan. Not every team has a Crochet or Skubal and its not easy to draft/develop or trade for those guys. I'm fine with Gausman taking the ball in any must-win game and confident he can matchup against any of the better arms out there and keep the Jays in the game. 

Gausman was 10th in FWAR for starters this season. Based on your criteria it appears there are a maximum of 9 number 1 starters in MLB this season. 

[John_Havok]

25 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Not sure I consider Gausman a "true ace" or "No. 1" starter anymore. Last season and parts of this season he didn't look like his elite self from 2021/2022/2023. I think those days are behind him. 

However, he has pitched very in the second half and has turned things around, posting a 2.82 ERA with 85K/16BB in 83.1 innings which is encouraging and much needed. I think he's a "really good No. 2 starter" if he keeps up pitching at this level. Most importantly, he's pitching well at the right time and hope he continues to have a strong Postseason. 

No knocks against Gausman. I'm a huge fan. Not every team has a Crochet or Skubal and its not easy to draft/develop or trade for those guys. I'm fine with Gausman taking the ball in any must-win game and confident he can matchup against any of the better arms out there and keep the Jays in the game. 

To a certain degree, it can be a little pedantic as "What defines a #1 vs an ace".. etc etc. are the aces the 6+ fWAR guys? 5.5+ ? 5+?   

Or, just the top 3-5 SPs each year regardless of WAR? If we take the 6+ FWAR - There's only 4 aces in the league, or 4 if you allow for leeway in fWAR ... Skenes(6.5), Skubal(6.6), Sanchez(6.4) and Crochet(5.8). 

Are the #1s that arent aces in the 4.5 to 5.5 range? That list is Webb, Yamamoto, Fried, Brown, and Luzardo. 

But, that type of system then discounts the guys that come up late, or come off injury and put up solid #'s on a per game basis but just arent there long enough to accumulate the fWAR. Is Schlittler a #1? Snell, Ragans, Woodruff, Megill, Lopez... all those types fall in there. Hunter Greene?  Trevor Rogers... 

There's probably some what to quantify it based on combined per game stats, actuall stats etc, but as we all know for SPs, staying healthy is huge. 

But, to continue your eval of Gausman, I agree. He'd be a solid #2 on any staff in baseball where you'd also get the occasional flashback to the Gausman of the past like we saw with his CG not too long ago.

Really right now for starters the Jays are counting on Gausman, Yesavage and Bieber. Not the worst trio by any stretch and if they are all at their best, they can match Seattle's top 3. But when you look at the question marks and what ifs, you'd probably lean towards Seattle having the edge. 

[jaysblue]

16 minutes ago, max silver said:

Gausman was 10th in FWAR for starters this season. Based on your criteria it appears there are a maximum of 9 number 1 starters in MLB this season. 

I'm considering a lot of things when I deem someone a "true ace". Consistent performance, stuff, age, statistics, dominance and how they compare against other arms etc. 

I also stated that there aren't many pitchers like Crochet or Skubal and arms like that are tough to come by. So yeah it's not like 15 or 20 teams are going to have an arm like that. Or heck even 10 teams. There aren't many teams that have arms like Crochet, Skubal, or Skenes. As well, there are some arms who I would rank ahead of Gausman, though currently on the IL or missed time this season such as Cole, Wheeler, Sale, Burnes, Bieber, Woodruff, Greene, Ohtani, Snell etc. 

Gausman in 2024 and in the first half of this year wasn't looking like a "true ace" at all. I did state he turned things around in the second half but that doesn't erase 1.5 years of slight regression which is what we all saw. There was concern earlier this season that the Jays had no true front of the rotation arm given the struggles and regression we saw from Gausman and Berrios earlier. 

 

[John_Havok]

27 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

No issues with Seattle being favored slightly... its exactly what I expected.  Their lineup is better than ours on paper but we've found ways to overcome that all year.  Its gonna be a great one.  

Just based on pure star power... Seattle gets the edge certainly when it comes to both pitching and offense. 

But the Jays are a far greater sum of their individual parts. That's probably the best way to describe the Jays this season honestly. There's some greatness there no doubt in Vlad, Bo, Springer, Kirk and Gausman, but the role players are just being plugged and played so well and their strengths being played to it's pretty amazing to see the results. 

[Abomination]

39 minutes ago, SeranthonySantander said:

Fried.  Rodon.  Shitler.  Skubal.  Crochet.  All of Tampa bay rotation.  Trevor Rogers.

 

That's just silly. Let's look at the TB rotation. Rasmussen is good, but averages under 5 innings a start. That's certainly not what you want from an ace. Pepiot had a 3.86 ERA and 4.36 xFIP. He's basically Berrios. Baz had a 4.87 ERA and 3.88 xFIP. Ignoring ERA, he's basically Bassitt. Bradley had a 4.61 ERA and 4.34 xFIP. Littel had a 3.58 ERA and 4.92 xFIP. Littel is probably Lauer. At this point, Bradley is probably basically Scherzer.
 

I don't think I'd take ANY of the Rays over Gausman. I'd take Rasmussen over Bieber. Rogers is NOT an ace. Schlittler is nowhere close to being in that category (likewise for Yesavage) but they may get there in a year or two.

[max silver]

2 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

I'm considering a lot of things when I deem someone a "true ace". Consistent performance, stuff, age, statistics, dominance and how they compare against other arms etc. 

I also stated that there aren't many pitchers like Crochet or Skubal and arms like that are tough to come by. So yeah it's not like 15 or 20 teams are going to have an arm like that. Or heck even 10 teams. There aren't many teams that have arms like Crochet, Skubal, or Skenes. As well, there are some arms who I would rank ahead of Gausman, though currently on the IL or missed time this season such as Cole, Wheeler, Sale, Burnes, Bieber, etc. 

Gausman in 2024 and in the first half of this year wasn't looking like a "true ace" at all. I did state he turned things around in the second half but that doesn't erase 1.5 years of slight regression which is what we saw. 

 

Gausman certainly ended the season pitching like a true ace. His final 17 starts were very impressive as he was 4th by FWAR, 2nd in innings pitched, 10th in ERA etc. I place a lot more importance on how he finished as compared to how he started his season particularly in regards to the teams post season chances. 

[Doubleplay21]

Bo hitting and running today may signal him being on the roster.

[jaysblue]

6 minutes ago, max silver said:

Gausman certainly ended the season pitching like a true ace. His final 17 starts were very impressive as he was 4th by FWAR, 2nd in innings pitched, 10th in ERA etc. I place a lot more importance on how he finished as compared to how he started his season particularly in regards to the teams post season chances. 

You love to cherry pick stats as always. I stated that in my original post about the second half Gausman put up. Does that erase what we saw from him over the last 1.5 years in terms of regression and what we saw with his stuff moving forward? Again, he's a very a solid pitcher and I have no issue with him matching up against any other teams "ace" or better arm. Said that already. 

I'm not getting into a lengthy debate about whether Gausman is a "true ace" or a "No. 1" or "No. 2" type starter. There is no point in arguing with you over this. You seem to want to pick an argument for no reason. 

Is Gausman a Top 10 arm in all of baseball? No. Is he a top 20 arm? Debatable. When he's pitching like he was in 2021/2022 and 2023, sure thing. Is he a Top 25-30 arm in all of baseball? Not going to complain having Gausman ahead of some other guys past #30 that's for sure. 

 

[max silver]

2 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

You love to cherry pick stats as always. I stated that in my original post about the second half Gausman put up. Does that erase what we saw from him over the last 1.5 years in terms of regression and what we saw with his stuff moving forward? Again, he's a very a solid pitcher and I have no issue with him matching up against any other teams "ace" or better arm. Said that already. 

I'm not getting into a lengthy debate about whether Gausman is a "true ace" or a "No. 1" or "No. 2" type starter. There is no point in arguing with you over this. You seem to want to pick an argument for no reason. 

Is Gausman a Top 10 arm in all of baseball? No. Is he a top 20 arm? Debatable. When he's pitching like he was in 2021/2022 and 2023, sure thing. Is he a Top 25-30 arm in all of baseball? Not going to complain having Gausman ahead of some other guys past #30 that's for sure. 

 

I simply made a point that Gausman ended the season on a high note and was literally one of the best starters in MLB by most performance indicators over a very large sample of starts.. I don't know why you would take so much offense to this unless you are so thin skinned that you are unable to handle a simple discussion that runs counter to your beliefs. 

[mphenhef]

1 hour ago, SeranthonySantander said:

Fried.  Rodon.  Shitler.  Skubal.  Crochet.  All of Tampa bay rotation.  Trevor Rogers.

How’d that go for the Yankees?

[Jonn]

1 hour ago, Doubleplay21 said:

Through the years Raleigh and Castillo always have been Jay killers coming up big.

Luis Castillo does not impress me much his ability to miss bats is declining. I think the Jays light him up this time.

As for Cal he is not Judge. He can be pitched to. Problem is when you don’t locate he crushes balls. Especially breaking balls down as a left handed hitter. You gotta show him velocity up and make him chase down. Lots of holes in his swing.

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, jaysblue said:

You love to cherry pick stats as always. I stated that in my original post about the second half Gausman put up. Does that erase what we saw from him over the last 1.5 years in terms of regression and what we saw with his stuff moving forward? Again, he's a very a solid pitcher and I have no issue with him matching up against any other teams "ace" or better arm. Said that already. 

I'm not getting into a lengthy debate about whether Gausman is a "true ace" or a "No. 1" or "No. 2" type starter. There is no point in arguing with you over this. You seem to want to pick an argument for no reason. 

Is Gausman a Top 10 arm in all of baseball? No. Is he a top 20 arm? Debatable. When he's pitching like he was in 2021/2022 and 2023, sure thing. Is he a Top 25-30 arm in all of baseball? Not going to complain having Gausman ahead of some other guys past #30 that's for sure. 

 

Can you just shut up man, and stop being a buzzkill all the time