General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[PickleJ]

9 hours ago, Vancouverite said:

Question for the analytics guys on here

Do the numbers show Lukes is for real and can stick?

It's such an amazing development that within a year Jays went to have such OF depth. If everyone gets healthy it'll be interesting

Springer

Varsho

Santander

Barger

Lukes 

Schneider 

Straw

Roden

Loperfido

Close 

That's a lot of MLB ready guys and i absoloutely think Roden, Loperfido and Clase need to get an opportunity. The kids have tools.

I think the metrics support Lukes being a sustainable 4th/5th outfielder. He doesn’t provide anything that pops out at you (maybe some on base and bat to ball skills against righties). But there is also not much there that tanks his value.  

I think his base running and defence (especially in LF) metrics related to overall WAR are slightly depressed due to small sample size variance. But he will never be on the roster for his base running or defence alone. He’s not a one big skill bench guy. He’ll be on there because he is decent at most things and has a bit of positional flexibility in the outfield. From my glance at his profile, that seem sustainable for the near term. 

[PickleJ]

10 hours ago, Vancouverite said:

Question for the analytics guys on here

Do the numbers show Lukes is for real and can stick?

It's such an amazing development that within a year Jays went to have such OF depth. If everyone gets healthy it'll be interesting

Springer

Varsho

Santander

Barger

Lukes 

Schneider 

Straw

Roden

Loperfido

Close 

That's a lot of MLB ready guys and i absoloutely think Roden, Loperfido and Clase need to get an opportunity. The kids have tools.

True,. And  if Santador was healthy and performing., then there might not be any chatter about picking up a bat. Of course, if he was healthy and performing, then he would have soaked up a lot of at bats, and we might not of seen Barger break our, or Schneider bounce back, or Lukes contribute in quiet but real ways  

And I do like all the guys you lost e. but I’m not sure Clase or Roden are MLB ready, especially playoff run/post season ready. I think Roden will get there, not sure Clase will. But the real issue with Clase is that he will be out of options next year, so I think he is getting extended time on the big club this year to see if he has chance to,stick long term. 

Schneider and Loperfido are major league ready,-ish, but also tend to be erratic performance wise. Schneider has shown more than Loperfido performance wise., but Loperfido shows flashes and has sneaky positional flexibility. I like giving them some runway, but I’m also good if one or both get bumped for a more mature bat. 

Straw is what he is, but he has also been surprisingly helpful this year. Great fill in for Varsho and likely stays on the roster through the year because he provides CF defence and base running.

It’s definitely a good problem to have, especially with Varsho and Santadoe out for so long. 

[Laika]

I believe in Lukes' ability to make contact and hit for a modicum of power. 
I believe in his ability to take a walk. 

His below average speed limits any real upside. 

Short swing with below average bat speed. Some mental feel for when to try and turn on a pitch even though there is little raw power. Two comps are Nolan Schanuel and Alex Verdugo. You can see from Verdugo in recent years how quickly this profile can go from say a 1.5 WAR player to a replacement level guy. 

Pretty useful bench or platoon player for the time being though! 

I wonder if Lukes should start getting 1B work so Clement isn't the backup there anymore. Kind of a waste of Clement's defensive skills for him to ever be at 1B. 

[PickleJ]

10 hours ago, Vancouverite said:

Question for the analytics guys on here

Do the numbers show Lukes is for real and can stick?

It's such an amazing development that within a year Jays went to have such OF depth. If everyone gets healthy it'll be interesting

Springer

Varsho

Santander

Barger

Lukes 

Schneider 

Straw

Roden

Loperfido

Close 

That's a lot of MLB ready guys and i absoloutely think Roden, Loperfido and Clase need to get an opportunity. The kids have tools.

And one finally thing, because responding to your post sparked this thought, and it might be sneaky consideration moving forward. A lot of the our bench guys and minor league guys, both in the OF and IF, appear to be brining contributing in complimentary ways.

Barger is more useful because he can play third, which enables the Jays to move Clement to 2B or SS on some nights, or to bump him from the line up against some righties..

Clement plays a top notch 3B, which means the Jays can move Barger out to RF and give George “Roy Hobbs” Springer some time off his feet in the DH spot. 

Straw bats right and Lukes left for a CF platoon, but Straw also brings defence and base running of the bench, Lukes brings an okay bat against righties off the bench, and both provide OF positional flexibility.

Lukes can also platoon with Schneider in left, while Schneider has the ability to shift to second when things start moving around late in the game. 

And Lukes and Clement are demonstrating they can combine to fill the lead off roll.

So I wonder if bumping any one of them from the roster for a bigger bat has the risk of decreasing the utility of the group.

[Brownie19]

16 minutes ago, Laika said:

I believe in Lukes' ability to make contact and hit for a modicum of power. 
I believe in his ability to take a walk. 

His below average speed limits any real upside. 

Short swing with below average bat speed. Some mental feel for when to try and turn on a pitch even though there is little raw power. Two comps are Nolan Schanuel and Alex Verdugo. You can see from Verdugo in recent years how quickly this profile can go from say a 1.5 WAR player to a replacement level guy. 

Pretty useful bench or platoon player for the time being though! 

I wonder if Lukes should start getting 1B work so Clement isn't the backup there anymore. Kind of a waste of Clement's defensive skills for him to ever be at 1B. 

Blair and Barker were saying after the game last night how Lukes is a glue guy and a big part of the clubhouse.  The guy has endured and it's awesome to see him having success at the ML level.  They said you 100% want Lukes on your playoff roster and that it would be a mistake to push him off the team from a team chemistry perspective.

No idea if that's true - but I do think Lukes is a grinder who's worked hard to hone his craft.  I suspect the guys in the clubhouse respect that and I'm pretty comfortable with him in the lineup v. the right matchups.  He does everything "ok" and he certainly competes for you day in and day out.  Seems like a good, cheap #4/#5 OFer.

[Vancouverite]

19 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Blair and Barker were saying after the game last night how Lukes is a glue guy and a big part of the clubhouse.  The guy has endured and it's awesome to see him having success at the ML level.  They said you 100% want Lukes on your playoff roster and that it would be a mistake to push him off the team from a team chemistry perspective.

No idea if that's true - but I do think Lukes is a grinder who's worked hard to hone his craft.  I suspect the guys in the clubhouse respect that and I'm pretty comfortable with him in the lineup v. the right matchups.  He does everything "ok" and he certainly competes for you day in and day out.  Seems like a good, cheap #4/#5 OFer.

Yeah he does strike me as that type of guy. Straw too. It'd be so some interesting decisions on what the Jays will do if and when all of Varsho, Springer, and Santander are healthy.

Youll probably carry Barger as a RF/3B . Effectively he's your 9th man that rotates in and out to give Santander, Springer, Bichette a day at DH.

On the bench we will probably carry Lukes, Straw, and Schneider with Heineman. 

Not sure what to think of the idea of 3 OFs on the bench but at least Scheinder can play 2B

[Vancouverite]

27 minutes ago, PickleJ said:

And one finally thing, because responding to your post sparked this thought, and it might be sneaky consideration moving forward. A lot of the our bench guys and minor league guys, both in the OF and IF, appear to be brining contributing in complimentary ways.

Barger is more useful because he can play third, which enables the Jays to move Clement to 2B or SS on some nights, or to bump him from the line up against some righties..

Clement plays a top notch 3B, which means the Jays can move Barger out to RF and give George “Roy Hobbs” Springer some time off his feet in the DH spot. 

Straw bats right and Lukes left for a CF platoon, but Straw also brings defence and base running of the bench, Lukes brings an okay bat against righties off the bench, and both provide OF positional flexibility.

Lukes can also platoon with Schneider in left, while Schneider has the ability to shift to second when things start moving around late in the game. 

And Lukes and Clement are demonstrating they can combine to fill the lead off roll.

So I wonder if bumping any one of them from the roster for a bigger bat has the risk of decreasing the utility of the group.

Yup position flexibility is key. And the guys defenietly seem to oozing confidence and have a great thing going on for them.

Loperfidos first game back post-game comments eluded to that how the feeling in the clubhouse is so great that it allows you to be loose and just be confident in going up there and hitting the ball

Loperfido is a guy I've been high on since he came to the Jays. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

Crazy how badly we all wanted the Jays to sign a big OF bat and got Santander and now with George having a resurgence while Taters is on the IL it turns out we really would have been better off not signing him.

 

Now the Jays have a log jam in the OF and for the DH spot if/when they get healthy.

 

Good problem to have though. Better than the problems they had to deal with in 2023 and 2024.

 

 

[glory]

I don’t think there’s a logjam unless Loperfido suddenly has a Barger style breakout before Santander returns. Once the 3 injured players get back, it’s clearly Wagner, Jimenez, and Joey going to AAA. Springer apparently likes to DH and Tony for some reason performs better when he’s playing the field, so it might actually work out with this alignment. 

Of course if Popkins unleashes Loperfido and we have a glut of good players when everyone gets back and not enough spots for them then yeah that’s a problem I’d have no issues having to deal with.

[PickleJ]

24 minutes ago, Vancouverite said:

Yup position flexibility is key. And the guys defenietly seem to oozing confidence and have a great thing going on for them.

Loperfidos first game back post-game comments eluded to that how the feeling in the clubhouse is so great that it allows you to be loose and just be confident in going up there and hitting the ball

Loperfido is a guy I've been high on since he came to the Jays. 

Definitely, Now titan Loperfido is back, I am reminded that he also provides positional flexibility. It’s kind of strange, but we haven’t carried a back up middle infielder all year, except during times of injury to Giminez or Bichette. Our back up middle infielder is also our starting 3B. We also have a number of players that can be pinch hit for, run for, or subbed out defensively late in games. Schneider (the manager, not the moustache) will be busy this year. So positional flexibility is helpful right now. 

[Terminator]

On 4/23/2025 at 10:38 AM, Terminator said:

I am going to get absolutely tarred and feathered over this take BUT here it goes

Nathan Lukes is looking pretty interesting:

• .342 xwOBA this season, dragged down by a .200 BABIP
• K% of 13.5% and BB% of 10.8%
• Steamer projects a 114 wRC+ to go with his career wRC+ of 110 so far
• His updated Steamer600 is 2.5 WAR but I think it underrates his defense a lot
• Zips (which likes his defense and his bat) projects him for 2 WAR ROS in just 79 games

It's going to be interesting to see what they do when Varsho returns.

Roden, Barger, Wagner and Lukes are all grouped so closely together. But I think you could make the case that Lukes should stick over those guys. 

Since we are on the topic of Nathan Lukes I'd like to remind everyone of this post I made back in April.

Lukes has been slashing .287/.386./404 in 162 plate appearances since.

It took a lot of courage at the time but it feels good to be completely validated.

I doubt anyone will want to apologize but if so DM me and I will let you know where you can send the Swiss Chalet gift card. Go Jays!

[Nexii]

It definitely feels like the Jays have caught onto something as a team with regards to hitting philosophy/approach. A lot of young players significantly outplaying projections.

They just need to tweak Vlad's weird swing and then we'll really be scary

[Eat My Shatkins]

47 minutes ago, Nexii said:

It definitely feels like the Jays have caught onto something as a team with regards to hitting philosophy/approach. A lot of young players significantly outplaying projections.

They just need to tweak Vlad's weird swing and then we'll really be scary

Yep we would be frightening if Vlad was a $500 million superstar. I just don't think he's got the brain power to sustain any swing adjustments that would lead to that being a reality. So we'll probably just have to take the mostly 130 wRC+ bat with poor D at 1B and poor baserunning and hope for the odd stretch like last season where he caught fire and was 180 wRC+ for about 3-4 months.

 

Hopefully this year's hot streak starts soon and lasts until the Jays are crowned WS champs.

[Nexii]

Vlad is so hard to judge. I think a good portion of it is just bad luck yet again. 

[max silver]

44 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Yep we would be frightening if Vlad was a $500 million superstar. I just don't think he's got the brain power to sustain any swing adjustments that would lead to that being a reality. So we'll probably just have to take the mostly 130 wRC+ bat with poor D at 1B and poor baserunning and hope for the odd stretch like last season where he caught fire and was 180 wRC+ for about 3-4 months.

 

Hopefully this year's hot streak starts soon and lasts until the Jays are crowned WS champs.

I don't think it's fair to characterize Vlad's defensive play at first base as being poor this season as he's improved tremendously to the point where he's even by OAA and +6 by DRS. I still hold out hope that he fixes his timing at the plate to the point where a hot streak is possible but he's still been a valuable contributor offensively this season even in a somewhat mediocre offensive season by his standards. 

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the baseball is partially to blame for Vlad's suppressed results as compared to the expected statistics. This year's baseball is the deadest baseball MLB has produced since they started tracking the coefficient of drag. I believe MLB needs to automate the construction of the baseball so that they can finally start producing a more consistent product year in and year out.  

[Terminator]

5 minutes ago, max silver said:

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the baseball is partially to blame for Vlad's suppressed results as compared to the expected statistics. This year's baseball is the deadest baseball MLB has produced since they started tracking the coefficient of drag. I believe MLB needs to automate the construction of the baseball so that they can finally start producing a more consistent product year in and year out.  

It is absolutely WILD that this league has a new baseball every single year and the league has no clue what the ball will do or how to fix it.

There are billions wagered on this sport each year. I can't believe that Manfred allows this to happen.

[BTS]

8 minutes ago, Terminator said:

It is absolutely WILD that this league has a new baseball every single year and the league has no clue what the ball will do or how to fix it.

There are billions wagered on this sport each year. I can't believe that Manfred allows this to happen.

It's humiliating for the sport. Would be like hockey having different sized nets every year. 

[Nexii]

20 minutes ago, max silver said:

I don't think it's fair to characterize Vlad's defensive play at first base as being poor this season as he's improved tremendously to the point where he's even by OAA and +6 by DRS. I still hold out hope that he fixes his timing at the plate to the point where a hot streak is possible but he's still been a valuable contributor offensively this season even in a somewhat mediocre offensive season by his standards. 

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the baseball is partially to blame for Vlad's suppressed results as compared to the expected statistics. This year's baseball is the deadest baseball MLB has produced since they started tracking the coefficient of drag. I believe MLB needs to automate the construction of the baseball so that they can finally start producing a more consistent product year in and year out.  

Are players underperforming their xBA in general? For Vlad it's a huge gap. 277 AVG with an xBA of 320. Never mind the home runs, just the hits would put him back into elite territory

[Laika]

1 minute ago, Nexii said:

Are players underperforming their xBA in general? For Vlad it's a huge gap. 277 AVG with an xBA of 320. Never mind the home runs, just the hits would put him back into elite territory

It's possible.  xStats can be out of balance until they get a mid-season adjustment. 

I think I heard on Rates & Barrels a few weeks ago that xSLG in 2025 was .030 too high league-wide.

[Terminator]

3 minutes ago, Nexii said:

Are players underperforming their xBA in general? For Vlad it's a huge gap. 277 AVG with an xBA of 320. Never mind the home runs, just the hits would put him back into elite territory

Yes, stats are down across the board

.253 xBA, .245 BA

.326 xwOBA, .314 wOBA

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2025&position=&team=&filterType=bip&min=q&sort=13&sortDir=desc

[Nexii]

1 minute ago, Terminator said:

Yes, stats are down across the board

.253 xBA, .245 BA

.314 BA, .326 xwOBA

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2025&position=&team=&filterType=bip&min=q&sort=13&sortDir=desc

Thanks - yea I found this just after my last post. It's a significant gap for sure, though Vlad's is much larger.

They have him as the 8th best hitter this year so seems like mostly bad luck

[Laika]

1 minute ago, Terminator said:

Yes, stats are down across the board

.253 xBA, .245 BA

.314 BA, .326 xwOBA

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2025&position=&team=&filterType=bip&min=q&sort=13&sortDir=desc

right

i think what they do is... xStats are based on last year's averages/outcomes until some point mid-summer when they are re-scaled to the current season 

what you can see in the year to date gap is the drag on the ball being higher this year + maybe some season effects that we see every year since the ball flies better when it gets hotter 

[max silver]

5 minutes ago, Laika said:

right

i think what they do is... xStats are based on last year's averages/outcomes until some point mid-summer when they are re-scaled to the current season 

what you can see in the year to date gap is the drag on the ball being higher this year + maybe some season effects that we see every year since the ball flies better when it gets hotter 

I recall the Rogers Center takes an extra hit in the early going with the roof closed. The lower humidity levels combined with the humidor create conditions where the baseball doesn't fly very well.

[Terminator]

5 minutes ago, Nexii said:

Thanks - yea I found this just after my last post. It's a significant gap for sure, though Vlad's is much larger.

They have him as the 8th best hitter this year so seems like mostly bad luck

Yeah this happened last year where his real stats significantly trailed his xStats.

We all thought that it was perhaps because he doesn't pull the ball enough but Tom Tango visited the board and basically said to ignore that.

Sure enough, Vlad's real stats started to catch up and he went on that huge hot steak.

Hopefully that happens again soon. He's only ever had 1 season in his 6+ year career where his real stats significantly trailed his xStats so there's no reason to think it won't. 

[Brownie19]

25 minutes ago, BTS said:

It's humiliating for the sport. Would be like hockey having different sized nets every year. 

Yes, I'm splitting hairs, but wouldn't it be more like having a different puck with a different amount of "bounce" each year?  So one year Ovi's max slap shot is 95 MPH and the next it's only 88 MPH because they used a different rubber or a different density of rubber (or something like that)?

Point still stands though - it would be insane for that to happen.

 

[Laika]

Sometimes stuff like this is just more evident in baseball because the data exists. 

Who is to say that there aren't tangible but unmeasured differences in hockey pucks year to year and it does influence scoring a bit? 

I remember deflate gate in the NFL. 

What if the basketballs have grippier dimples in certain seasons? 

Baseball will also always be an inconsistent sport because of the irregular park dimensions and the fact that it is played outside. 

I guess the NFL is played outside too. Are there park adjustments in the NFL for kickers and quarterbacks? Do spirals spiral worse in Denver? 

[Brownie19]

22 minutes ago, Laika said:

Sometimes stuff like this is just more evident in baseball because the data exists. 

Who is to say that there aren't tangible but unmeasured differences in hockey pucks year to year and it does influence scoring a bit? 

I remember deflate gate in the NFL. 

What if the basketballs have grippier dimples in certain seasons? 

Yeah - I was actually thinking this when I wrote my post above.  That might actually be a thing - but there are no metrics to track it.  

I don't even know if every basketball has to be pumped to a certain PSI before every game.  You typically just see the ref randomly bouncing a couple and seemingly saying "this looks fine".  I do think there was some issues with "new balls" in the NBA like 7-8 years ago.  Maybe changed supplier and some felt they were slicker or something.

[thatoneguy]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Yes, I'm splitting hairs, but wouldn't it be more like having a different puck with a different amount of "bounce" each year?  So one year Ovi's max slap shot is 95 MPH and the next it's only 88 MPH because they used a different rubber or a different density of rubber (or something like that)?

Point still stands though - it would be insane for that to happen.

 

Or sticks with differing allowances of flex/torque.

[John_Havok]

15 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

I don't think the Rangers make deGrom available, they're still on the bubble and they want to win moving forward.

Agreed, I don't think he's truly in play, but the GM will do his due diligence and probably get a list of teams he would maybe approve a trade to. 

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

right

i think what they do is... xStats are based on last year's averages/outcomes until some point mid-summer when they are re-scaled to the current season 

what you can see in the year to date gap is the drag on the ball being higher this year + maybe some season effects that we see every year since the ball flies better when it gets hotter 

So, his 10 foot ground balls will be 11 feet now?